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Is Musk's (Tesla) real competition WikiSpeed?

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  • #16
    Re: Is Musk's (Tesla) real competition WikiSpeed?

    Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
    Weight is the enemy of vehicle efficiency, so vehicles are going to keep getting lighter for those that cannot, will not or need not pay for lugging around a mini-tank...Newtonian physics notwithstanding (F= m*a).

    The picture of this vehicle is somewhat reminiscent of Tesla's first effort...the Roadster.
    Might be worth pointing out that trying to design and build an efficient urban car goes back many decades. Some aspects of the description below will sound quaint and some will sound contemporary. This vehicle, affectionately nicknamed the Wally Wagon, after the University of British Columbia's much loved President, Dr. Walter Gage, went on to win the Society of Automotive Engineers sponsored 1972 Urban Vehicle Design Competition overall award of excellece in Ann Arbor, Michigan, beating 92 other entries from Canadian and United States universities.


    Engineers Build a Wonder Car
    ByJohn Sydor

    The UBC urban automobile will neither radiate a chromed light nor propel you at a tremendous speed along the highway. But it will allow you to move within a city in comfort, quiet and safety at a negligible cost to both the operator and environment.

    The automobile is being designed and assembled at UBC by about 13 undergraduate engineering students. Once completed, it will be taken east where it will be the UBC entry in a competition involving 44 other Canadian and American universities. Its top speed will be 60 m.p.h.

    "The competition is mainly concerned with a vehicle's performance, safety, production cost, human and environment compatibility, and energy efficiency," says Don O'Connor, engineering 3, one of the project co-ordinators.

    "The anticipated cost of the project is around $18,000, and it is being raised by donations from the university community and industry. "The money will be used to buy materials and manufacture components unique to our vehicle," O'Connor said in an interview. "The only mass produced parts will be the Fiat 128 engine, the drive train, and the suspension, which will be modified."

    When asked how much it would cost to run the vehicle, O'Connor said : "We anticipate 40 miles of city driving to the gallon of liquid natural gas, which costs as little as five cents per gallon. " Since natural gas is a clean fuel, very few engine parts will fail from combustion deposit and oil changes will only be needed every 25,000 miles, thus maintenance cost will be quite small," he said. "Another benefit from natural gas is that the exhaust emissions will be about 95 percent less than that of an ordinary gasoline engine.

    "Technical modifications such as the electronic timing will allow the engine to perform efficiently over a wide range of speeds, while a .system of heat exchangers will allow utilization of heat energy that is normally lost. "Also the vehicle will have mufflers and sound insulators that will make it virtually noise free," said O 'Connor.

    The priority concern in the design of the urban car has been safety. For instance, the vehicle will be made of two separate frames. One will hold the passenger compartment, the other will be used as a shock frame. The frames are held together by shear pins. In the event of a high speed collision, most of the force will go into shearing some of the pins and bending the shock frame . This will leave the second frame and its occupants intact and free from harm.

    "The manner in which the motor will be mounted is also safety oriented. "On high impact it will be pushed under the car instead of into the passenger compartment, as what quite often happens with today's automobiles," said O'Connor. "Other safety features include a collapsing steering column, seat belt alarm, padded interior and shock absorbing bumpers which will allow the vehicle to withstand a five m .p .h . barrier crash.

    "Safety and efficiency alone did not define the design of the urban vehicle," he said. The designers were well aware of the problems that often make driving frustrating and an effort was made at designing "convenience gadgets" for the vehicle. One gadget is the "common service point". By attaching a special refuelling mechanism at the service station, the vehicle will have everything vital to its operation checked out while it fills up with natural gas. The body of the vehicle will be made of plastic panelling . Instead of going to a body shop and getting a smashed fender or crumpled side fixed, the owner would buy a new fender or side and simply snap it on.

    Other conveniences designed into the car are large windows with no blind spots, small turning radius for easy parking and manoeuverability and a push-button electronic anti-theft device on which a combination of numbers must be struck before the vehicle can be driven.

    Whether the UBC urban car will ever go into production, O 'Connor does not know. "If it ever is mass produced, the cost per vehicle should be around $2,400, which is quite reasonable for a car that holds two people and eight bags of groceries," he said.

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    • #17
      Re: Is Musk's (Tesla) real competition WikiSpeed?

      Originally posted by shiny
      I'm really excited to see these new developments in vehicle design, distributed information and the choices to use off-the-shelf components as much as possible.
      How are these 'new generation' cars different than the kit cars of yesteryear?

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kit_car

      Originally posted by wayiwalk
      I really have to wonder about the utility of these light weight cars in the northeast (or elsewhere in the north) as far as handling when there is any snow on the ground (roads). It makes a big difference being in a heavier car when traveling in snow....unless there are provisions to use chains on the tires.
      All things being equal, more weight would be better.

      However, more things are not necessarily equal. For one thing, it isn't clear to me that less weight automatically means less traction; the decrease in friction due to weight applied on the tires also means a greater momentum that has to be scrubbed off when braking. Thus a heavier car might be able to accelerate better, or it might just dig a hole in the snow and get stuck, but the lighter cars might actually be easier to stop or turn.

      However, the primary issue is speed. The various examples of cars were all low acceleration vehicles.

      Low acceleration is exactly how you should be driving in snow.

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      • #18
        Re: Is Musk's (Tesla) real competition WikiSpeed?

        Originally posted by c1ue View Post
        How are these 'new generation' cars different than the kit cars of yesteryear?

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kit_car
        Kits cars have heretofor been for hobbyists. With rising gasoline prices from PCO and better information distribution courtesy of the Internet, these ultra efficient small cars from creative, small companies have the potential of gaining wide acceptance. I think they could be game changers, taking away significant market share from Big Auto. Like the Internet started small, but now look at the state of the Newspaper industry.

        Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle.

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        • #19
          Re: Is Musk's (Tesla) real competition WikiSpeed?

          Originally posted by shiny! View Post
          Kits cars have heretofor been for hobbyists. With rising gasoline prices from PCO and better information distribution courtesy of the Internet, these ultra efficient small cars from creative, small companies have the potential of gaining wide acceptance. I think they could be game changers, taking away significant market share from Big Auto. Like the Internet started small, but now look at the state of the Newspaper industry.
          It will be extraordinarily difficult to take away any appreciable market share from Big Auto (and by "Big Auto" I mean all the mass market global auto companies, not just the USA Big Three). The design, development, testing, certification, marketing, servicing and other costs to bring a new vehicle to market, much less an entirely new brand, is very, very high. That is an enormous barrier to new entrants. Despite the hype, the jury is still out on Tesla's ultimate success at achieving all of this.

          Most "new" brands are the result of massive home country government financial support under local industrialization policies (Hyundai, for example)...having a car manufacturing business seems one of those things that governments everywhere cannot resist.

          The world is awash in car manufacturing capacity. Governments are reluctant to allow car plants to shut and therefore will bend and even break the rules (such as in the EU) to avoid that eventuality for as long as possible. But each recession and crisis forces more of the high cost production to close permanently (Ford's exit from Australia but the latest example), companies continue to merge (e.g. Peugeot-Citroen), platforms are shared to cut costs (even Porsche is now doing that with VW), brands are disappearing (Plymouth, Oldsmobile, Pontiac, Mercury, Saturn, Saab, Fisker, Miles Electric Vehicles, Coda Automotive). But as fast as capacity is being cut, EM nations like China are adding new capacity and creating its own new brands, so its seems never-ending. Which makes it a brutal business from a financial standpoint.

          I don't see anything happening today with all these upstart little companies, most of which do not even have access to the capital that Tesla enjoys, that is any different from what has been going on in the global auto industry since time immemorial. Most of them are undercapitalized, will fail to achieve critical mass volume and market share, and will disappear...just like Bricklin, DeLorean, Studebaker, American Motors, Checker, Hummer, Rambler, DeSoto and a host of others.

          Had a close look at a Model S last weekend. It is a lovely looking sedan (but then, so is the Jaguar Hybrid). No idea how it drives (and don't care because I can buy seven excellent used pickup trucks, one for each day of the week, for the price of a Tesla...and my insurance would be much cheaper). As I was admiring its looks and finish what came to mind is that the typical Tesla buyer doesn't purchase a car for longevity or even environmental reasons...they make their purchase so they have something to talk about with their gin-and-Jaguar set peers at the golf clubhouse. That means that each Tesla model is likely a short product cycle car, otherwise there are few repeat buyers.

          Tesla would seem to have a very interesting challenge ahead of them. If they work out and lower production costs they are unlikely to be able to lower the price of the Model S without appearing to "cheapen" the offering and destroying its cachet in the eyes of owners. If they don't lower the price they need to find some other way to keep expanding the qualified buyer cohort...cheaper credit would seem to be out now that we have rising interest rates. Maybe they copy the computer industry and sell an improved product with more options at the same list price?

          Just for grins, here's the view that most other drivers are going to see of Jaguar's C-X75 Hybrid supercar. Roll up in front of the clubhouse in one of these and your golf buddies will forget all about Teddy's new Tesla...

          "Our challenge was monumental: we needed to achieve the performance of a Veyron; the range of a Volt; and the CO2 of a Prius," Jaguar C-X75 manager Rob Atkin says in a new video promoting the supercar."

          Last edited by GRG55; August 21, 2013, 11:51 AM.

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          • #20
            Re: Is Musk's (Tesla) real competition WikiSpeed?

            Originally posted by shiny
            Kits cars have heretofor been for hobbyists. With rising gasoline prices from PCO and better information distribution courtesy of the Internet, these ultra efficient small cars from creative, small companies have the potential of gaining wide acceptance. I think they could be game changers, taking away significant market share from Big Auto. Like the Internet started small, but now look at the state of the Newspaper industry.
            My point was that there have been small companies making customizable cars for decades. What is different about these new ones?

            I'd also point out that one of the biggest differences these days is electronics - right up there with alt-e drive systems and internal combustion high efficiency engines. None of these categories lend themselves well being improved upon (at a reasonable cost) by small companies.

            Originally posted by GRG55
            It will be extraordinarily difficult to take away any appreciable market share from Big Auto (and by "Big Auto" I mean all the mass market global auto companies, not just the USA Big Three). The design, development, testing, certification, marketing, servicing and other costs to bring a new vehicle to market, much less an entirely new brand, is very, very high. That is an enormous barrier to new entrants. Despite the hype, the jury is still out on Tesla's ultimate success at achieving all of this.
            Let's also not forget economies of scale. I don't know the specifics in the auto industry, but for electronics - the difference between ordering 1 unit, vs. 100, vs. 1000, vs. 100,000 is gigantic.

            Then throw in things like distribution. Cars aren't books - you can't offer free shipping on the Internet from your Amazon store. You need dealers, lots, test driveable demos, etc. Then there are all of the fun regulatory issues: all 50 states have different regulations - all of which must be passed in order to have a 'street legal' vehicle.

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            • #21
              Re: Is Musk's (Tesla) real competition WikiSpeed?

              And then there is Lisa - for $400k, pretty cool if you can foot the bill... and no more traffic lights. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VwSCR0LoAyo

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              • #22
                Re: Is Musk's (Tesla) real competition WikiSpeed?

                Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                ...Let's also not forget economies of scale. I don't know the specifics in the auto industry, but for electronics - the difference between ordering 1 unit, vs. 100, vs. 1000, vs. 100,000 is gigantic...
                Which is why my opening comment was specific to the mass market auto manufacturers. A company like Tesla may be able to take market share away from manufacturers like Jaguar or Aston Martin, who also make low volume status symbol cars used as conversation pieces at the country club. But a 21k unit per year manufacturer isn't going to dent the top end sales of BMW, Merc or Lexus.

                Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                ...Then throw in things like distribution. Cars aren't books - you can't offer free shipping on the Internet from your Amazon store. You need dealers, lots, test driveable demos, etc...
                I agree with you. The commoditizing of cars doesn't seem to work any more. VW has never replicated the success of the original Beetle...which is probably as close to a commodity car as has ever been created. Even in India where Tata tried to commoditize the Nano, to replace the venerable Hindustan Motors Ambassador, it seems the emotional and status implications of a car purchase now dominate over pure, cold blooded rational economics. That is probably the main deterrent to the success of marketing cars over the internet.

                Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                Then there are all of the fun regulatory issues: all 50 states have different regulations - all of which must be passed in order to have a 'street legal' vehicle.
                Yup. The daunting cost of certification...

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                • #23
                  Re: Is Musk's (Tesla) real competition WikiSpeed?

                  Originally posted by vinoveri
                  And then there is Lisa - for $400k, pretty cool if you can foot the bill... and no more traffic lights. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VwSCR0LoAyo
                  The cost of the plane is only one corner of the pyramid. There's the operating cost, the pilot certification (getting and maintaining), the chance of death (much higher, see below), the runway access - not many places permit random lake/river landing, etc etc.

                  http://www.meretrix.com/~harry/flyin...vsdriving.html

                  • driving: 1.32 fatal accidents and 1.47 fatalities per 100 million miles
                  • airlines: .05 fatal accidents and 1.57 fatalities per 100 million miles
                  • GA: 7.46 fatal accidents and 13.1 fatalities per 100 million miles
                  I'll note that GA (general aviation, i.e. private airplanes) has a tremendously higher certification requirement than general driving, though significantly less than airline pilot certification - and despite this has a tremendous relative accident and fatal casualty rate.

                  Originally posted by GRG55
                  A company like Tesla may be able to take market share away from manufacturers like Jaguar or Aston Martin, who also make low volume status symbol cars used as conversation pieces at the country club. But a 21k unit per year manufacturer isn't going to dent the top end sales of BMW, Merc or Lexus.
                  I'd further add to your comments: Jaguar had to sell itself to Ford. Aston Martin loses money left and right - I think they've been unprofitable for 50 years running.

                  Taking market share away from a segment of the market which is unprofitable is normally a really stupid thing to do - especially if you're doing it by losing even more money relatively speaking.

                  The magic of Musk is spinning this reality into a multi-billion dollar market cap.

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                  • #24
                    Re: Is Musk's (Tesla) real competition WikiSpeed?

                    Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                    The cost of the plane is only one corner of the pyramid. There's the operating cost, the pilot certification (getting and maintaining), the chance of death (much higher, see below), the runway access - not many places permit random lake/river landing, etc etc.

                    http://www.meretrix.com/~harry/flyin...vsdriving.html



                    I'll note that GA (general aviation, i.e. private airplanes) has a tremendously higher certification requirement than general driving, though significantly less than airline pilot certification - and despite this has a tremendous relative accident and fatal casualty rate.


                    True enough - that's why pilots have a much harder time securing life insurance. Although still 1/2 the fatality rate of motorcycles (do you own a scooter per chance?)
                    I note that the licensing requirements are much relaxed for Light Sport Aircraft. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light-sport_aircraft. Also heard they were coming up with an auto-deployable parachute to safely "land" the craft should the pilot lose control or spin in.

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                    • #25
                      Re: Is Musk's (Tesla) real competition WikiSpeed?

                      Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                      Completely agree. The very best off-road and snow vehicle I ever drove was my oldest brother's cut down and heavily modified 1966 1200cc VW Beetle. The secret is not the weight of the vehicle but a tall, narrow wheel/tire that will cut through all the soft mud or snow on the surface so it can get down to something more solid with traction. Back in the 1970s there wasn't a 4WD truck made that could go where we took that lightweight buggy, including up a mountain trail to where my brother had a snowmobile cabin for winter. Everyone else parked at the bottom and rode their sleds up.

                      The youngsters I see today driving fancy 4x4 pickups with fat, low sidewall profile tires in the winter have no clue...
                      Yes, you're right, not heavy but able to penetrate thourgh the snow.

                      I'm surprised to hear so much positive experience with VW bugs. I had heard that they were great getting power to the wheels (rear engine/rear wheel drive) but weren't so great with directional stablity (steering) in the snow.

                      The volvo doesn't surprise - I'm sure the designers had snow conditions in mind when they laid out that car.

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                      • #26
                        Re: Is Musk's (Tesla) real competition WikiSpeed?

                        Originally posted by wayiwalk View Post
                        Yes, you're right, not heavy but able to penetrate thourgh the snow.

                        I'm surprised to hear so much positive experience with VW bugs. I had heard that they were great getting power to the wheels (rear engine/rear wheel drive) but weren't so great with directional stablity (steering) in the snow...
                        Usual situation for most rear-wheel drive cars, not unique to a VW. Newton's First Law of Motion...the front tires have to create a steering load (force) on the body in motion to change its direction. More difficult to do this in low coefficient of friction conditions. In a front-wheel drive car the front tires are carrying both the steering load and the traction load. Once the wheels are turned off centre the traction load helps "pull" the car in the new direction, unlike a rear-wheel drive where the traction load is trying to push the car in the same direction (straight ahead) that it was originally travelling. Setting all this theoretical engineering BS aside, in the real world of winter I found the best way to steeer the VW at speed in the snow was using handbrake turns.

                        Originally posted by wayiwalk View Post
                        The volvo doesn't surprise - I'm sure the designers had snow conditions in mind when they laid out that car.
                        I owned a rear-wheel drive 1982 Volvo 244 GLT for more than 18 years. Highest material and build quality vehicle I have ever owned. Period. Even my wife's Camry and my Toyota Land Cruiser didn't come close to the Volvo (remember this was Volvo in the pre-Ford days - I drove that thing 280,000 miles and never pulled the head off the engine, that's how good it was). Had a blast furnace for a heater/defroster, which was great for the Canadian winter. But it was near useless in the snow until I finally broke down and fitted all four corners with (tall, narrow) Bridgestone Blizzaks. Transformed the car entirely.
                        Last edited by GRG55; August 22, 2013, 12:33 PM.

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                        • #27
                          Re: Is Musk's (Tesla) real competition WikiSpeed?

                          Originally posted by vinoveri
                          True enough - that's why pilots have a much harder time securing life insurance. Although still 1/2 the fatality rate of motorcycles (do you own a scooter per chance?)
                          I do have a Goped electric scooter - basically a scaled up version of the kickboards that you see kids with. Mine will go 25 miles between charges and up to 20 mph.

                          However, I drive it like a bicycle - one which actually follows all traffic rules like stopping at red lights and stop signs. Unlike a bicycle or motorcycle, I stand fully upright so have better vision than most cars as well as am much more visible.

                          I also only drive it to go grocery shopping or for work purposes - which is entirely heavy urban settings where the speed limit is 25 mph for cars. One huge benefit of the scooter is that, because I have an electric motor, I am never tempted to try and preserve momentum by bending/breaking traffic rules as many bicyclists do. The low top speed also means I have zero temptation or capability to show off.

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                          • #28
                            Re: Is Musk's (Tesla) real competition WikiSpeed?

                            Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                            .... Setting all this theoretical engineering BS aside, in the real world of winter I found the best way to steeer the VW at speed in the snow was using handbrake turns.

                            .....
                            ......finally broke down and fitted all four corners with (tall, narrow) Bridgestone Blizzaks. Transformed the car entirely.
                            +1 to the steering technique - after having grown up driving tween MA and NH every weekend and learning how to drive in the white stuff (from the ole man, who went north/frydays especially, sunday/south not quite so eagerly - no matter how hard it was coming down) - in both the ole mans buicks AND the ole lady's veedubs - both the beetle and the wabbit - my obs (anecdotally-speaking, no eng'g BS ;) - is that heavy rear-wheel-drive cars go really well (at i-95 speeds) thru deep snow (with snow tires, of course), while the lighter bug (and wabbit) didnt like the hi-speed too awfully well - i eventually aquired a couple wabbits mesself and found them not quite as sure-footed in snow (at i-95 cruising velocity anyway) as say something like my peugeot504's were.

                            will say the chevy cavalier/FWD with snow tires (a canadian brand - snowking ? - i bought that year up in vancouver) would go _anywhere_ as long as the snowdepth didnt cause it to 'bottom-out' (thus lifting the weight off the drive wheels)

                            but the ole hand-brake turn in the ski area parking lots was always a 'teachable moment' - never mind spinnin donuts in the buicks, as RWD with a 350/5.7L was just made for cutting figure8's

                            can hardly wait to see how (her) new subaru outback AWD works this winter up in lil cottonwood...
                            will take/try your advice about the tall/skinny tires, as this one comes with the fat/short type.

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                            • #29
                              Re: Is Musk's (Tesla) real competition WikiSpeed?

                              Originally posted by vinoveri View Post
                              Also heard they were coming up with an auto-deployable parachute to safely "land" the craft should the pilot lose control or spin in.
                              I'm sure that's better than nothing but many accidents occur during takeoff and landing where deploying a parachute would probably not work.

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