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right on sched and just in time for the summer drive-athon

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  • right on sched and just in time for the summer drive-athon

    well lets see - now that oil/gasoline prices popped like they usually do in april-may, with the just-in-time fallback as summer vacation-planning season got underway??

    guess what time it is NOW folks?

    its called: "wait til they begin to hit the roads in july and then WHACK-EM SEASON" !!

    thats right - on top of RECORD EXPORTS causing the otherwise suddenly 'plentiful' supplies to suddenly somehow vanish for our benefit - we now see the seasonal "unexpected" event pop up once again:

    Gasoline Futures Hit Four-Month High After Refinery Glitches

    Slowdowns at Refineries and Worry About Demand Likely to Be Felt at Pump


    "likely" ??
    bet on it baybee!

    NEW YORK—Gasoline futures shot to the highest level in nearly four months Friday, after a series of refinery glitches spurred concerns about the ready availability of fuel supplies.


    The rally also lifted oil futures and extended a two-week rally in the petroleum market. August reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, settled 9.61 cents, or 3.2%, higher at $3.1175 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement for the contract since March 18. Analysts say the rally likely portends higher prices at the pump in the coming weeks.


    "It's really higher gasoline futures that count, because when was the last time you filled up your car with crude oil?" said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston consulting firm. "If you don't have the equipment to turn that oil into gasoline, therein lies the problem."


    Analysts and traders linked Friday's rise to several reports this week of production hitches at a number of U.S. refineries. Motiva Enterprises LLC on Wednesday shut a production unit at its Port Arthur refinery in Texas. The facility processes 600,000 barrels of crude oil a day into gasoline and other fuels. A Motiva spokeswoman declined to discuss the extent of the shutdown or when the production unit would be restarted.


    Separately, Phillips 66 PSX +2.30% reported a production shutdown at its refinery in Ponca City, Okla., after a power outage. The refinery had resumed normal operations by Friday afternoon, a company spokesman said.
    Refinery problems often boost gasoline-futures prices as traders rush to the futures market to cover potential shortfalls. If sustained, they can translate to higher prices at the pump.


    "There's kind of a squeeze going on in the wholesale market," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.


    Despite the recent rally, the U.S. is brimming with spare gasoline, (??? then why are prices so high) due largely to weak demand. U.S. gasoline inventories now stand at 221 million barrels, their highest level for this time of year since 2001, according to the Energy Information Administration. However, supplies have fallen in recent weeks, whittling down the sizeable surplus.


    Already, pump prices have been rising. On Friday, they rose 3.2 cents a gallon to average $3.55 a gallon nationwide, according to auto club AAA. That's the biggest one-day rise in five months and comes on the heels of this week's steep rise in oil prices. Mr. Lipow on Friday estimated that pump prices could rise another 10 cents a gallon over the next seven to 10 days.


    Nymex crude has gained 15% since the start of July, as U.S. oil stockpiles have fallen sharply and new oil pipelines and railroads help bring a glut of oil once trapped in the Midwest to refineries on the Gulf Coast.

    On Friday, August light, sweet crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.04, or 1%, to $105.95 a barrel. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange rose $1.08, or 1%, to $108.81 a barrel.
    HAHAHAHA!!!

    on the one hand, we're swimming in gasoline, but on the other 'stockpiles' have fallen sharply?

    it (the energy conspiracy) gets goofier by the day, dont it?

  • #2
    Re: right on sched and just in time for the summer drive-athon

    Crude prices go up, and it's reflected in the price of gasoline at the pump the next day.

    Crude prices go down, and the price of gas stays high and comes down very slowly if at all. The excuse being that this gasoline was in the pipeline when the crude price was high.

    Up like a rocket, down like a feather.

    Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle.

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    • #3
      Re: right on sched and just in time for the summer drive-athon



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      • #4
        Re: right on sched and just in time for the summer drive-athon

        Since you have the markets figured out, buy futures and oil company stocks and get richer than Gates.

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        • #5
          Re: right on sched and just in time for the summer drive-athon

          Ha hAH!!
          yeah, dont i wish - were that the case, i'd be stretched out on the back of a 100footer somewhere - i just post em when eye see em.
          (no extra charge for the witty commentary ;)

          not sure what mr slim is alluding to with the his charts tho - do they suggest that my observations are NOT correct?
          or is he saying that this is just typical, par for the course/annual-normal?

          my question then becomes: well, if this is 'normal' then why dont the refiners/distributors/tankfarmers plan accordingly, since i flatly refuse to accept that this is all just 'random' effects and "unexpected" occurrence? (jacking up of prices every spring, just before a dropoff heading into the summer driv-athon season and then BOOM! launching again, as we actually hit the roads on vacay) - why? - fuel blending mandates? - ok, then - once again, its TADA!!!
          the political class and all their BS pandering to some 'cause' that causes it - not that the clean air regs are The Problem, as i think those are necessary - altho that (blaming the beltway - right grg ?) would be my natural proclivity anyway...

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          • #6
            Re: right on sched and just in time for the summer drive-athon

            I really don't understand this repeated complaint about gas prices (that they go up fast, come down slow, go up in summer, etc.)

            Perhaps my disdain is naive, but it's my impression that the oil market and gas prices are probably as 'free-market' as anything in this world (discounting the subsidy resulting from the role of the dollar and of the US military). Unless I'm very much mistaken (and I could be) then what's the problem? This what we all want for every product & service, right? I'm not being sarcastic.

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            • #7
              Re: right on sched and just in time for the summer drive-athon

              Originally posted by leegs View Post
              ..... it's my impression that the oil market and gas prices are probably as 'free-market' as anything in this world....
              wouldnt disagree with that mr leegs - i tend to think that the oil industry has done a far better job than most at delivering the goods to the consumer and VAST QUANTITIES of it at that - essentially 'energy (almost) too cheap to meter' (and i'm not being sarcastic either) - esp considering the hundreds of billions in capex just to find the stuff, more hundreds of billions to refine and distribute the stuff and all of this for one of the lower net profit margins in the entire economy - and all of this that directly benefits/enables our FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT to go whenever and where-ever we feel like it any time we want to - name any other industry that has done MORE to benefit the citizenry?

              so no, i dont think its all about the oil co's gouging - the unintended effects of regulation is more likely the cause of the prices gyrating like they do - vs 'obscene' profits - i mean compared to some stuff - bottled water and soda for instance - and whens the last time you heard any bitchin about the price of those 2 items? - esp silent is the usual suspects within the political class, who never fail to castigate the oil industry on its "obscene profits" every time the price cliks up - but they never have anything to say about the bottled water guys? (and we wont even get into stuff like med insururers and the (legal) drug mob...)

              i mean - wheres the outrage over the truly outrageously OBSCENE profits on bottled water?

              the lib-dems silence on that one is kind of puzzling, doncha tink?

              my comments were more along the lines of poking fun at the news media (specifically the editorial desk spin on it) who never fail to BULLHORN the price of gasoline, but again, are strangely silent on other things that cost The Rest of US far more per year - med insurance the numero uno item - since dunno about you, but my med ins costs me a heluva lot more per year - in ONE year - than i spend on gasoline in 3.

              nears i can tell, had we made a the correct choice on the nuke power issue 35 years ago, we'd have 'energy (of all types) too cheap to meter' by now, had the freeways all choked up with electric cars and wouldnt have spent trillions in borrowed money fighting wars for oil that we will _never_ win.

              oh and yeah, there likely wouldnt be any global-climate-warming change happnin either...

              and one other obs: we didnt hear much out of the beltway on 'tapping the reserve' this year, either?
              wonder why, when 'the price' seems to be nearly as high as it was a year/2 ago - could it be that its because they know something we arent being told - like the value of the dollar is sinking, and THIS is whats causing the oil/gas price to krank up? (and we'll just ignore that _exports_ of the refined products are zoooooming or that 'certain speculative interests' (aka BIG campaign contributors) might be gaming the markets at every opportunity)
              Last edited by lektrode; July 15, 2013, 12:26 PM.

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              • #8
                Re: right on sched and just in time for the summer drive-athon

                I don't know anything, I just posted the charts for information purposes.

                Also this:
                http://www.macrotrends.net/1453/crud...vs-the-s-p-500



                The harder they come, the harder they fall, one and all...

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                • #9
                  Re: right on sched and just in time for the summer drive-athon

                  Lek thanks for the reply. Your perspective on the bullhorn commentary on gas prices is interesting, i.e. that it gets a lot of attention when other things don't. I agree that it is relevant to see it as another distraction, and perhaps it is in fact the free market nature of oil prices that makes it an allowable target, when things that are not at all free market, such as medical care as you mention, are not safe targets for the mass media. I had not thought of that, but the idea makes a lot of sense.

                  On the subject of 'tapping the reserve'; you're right, that is such a bogus topic, trotted out at politically convenient times. So stupid. I remember that Gore brought up the subject in 2000, I was just appalled at such blatant pandering in opposition to his alleged core principles.

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                  • #10
                    Re: right on sched and just in time for the summer drive-athon

                    Seems like a good time to open up an oil business.

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