10 year yield on U.S. treasury note since 1790

[vt]

http://www.businessinsider.com/10-ye...ce-1790-2012-6

Of course we are in a very different situation now, but history might suggest some upward limits. Maybe not as high as the late 1970's, but somewhat higher than today.

[Forrest]

Re: 10 year yield on U.S. treasury note since 1790

http://www.businessinsider.com/10-ye...ce-1790-2012-6

Of course we are in a very different situation now, but history might suggest some upward limits. Maybe not as high as the late 1970's, but somewhat higher than today.

Odd, though, that the chart notes clearly a 2010 bottom with a 1945 bottom...with such high high's in the midst thereof. Very curious, this chart. It suggests so many possibilities when you consider what was happening then...does this cover the interim between World Wars?

[cobben]

Re: 10 year yield on U.S. treasury note since 1790

Odd, though, that the chart notes clearly a 2010 bottom with a 1945 bottom...with such high high's in the midst thereof. Very curious, this chart. It suggests so many possibilities when you consider what was happening then...does this cover the interim between World Wars?

That thought had occurred to me.

Has humanity graduated since WWII to doing it's "World Wars" as largely though nearly as vicious economic contests?

Who then won the "WW3" we apparently just finished?
China?
Does China get all the gold then?

Was that the, or perhaps a "singularity"?



On a related topic, naively, what will the FED do when they own all of the bonds?


The Fed Is Now Taking Over The Entire Treasury Market 20 bps Per Week

[Forrest]

Re: 10 year yield on U.S. treasury note since 1790

That thought had occurred to me.

Has humanity graduated since WWII to doing it's "World Wars" as largely though nearly as vicious economic contests?

It would be nice to think so, but if you look at all those people is the Middle East and Asia, I don't think so.

Who then won the "WW3" we apparently just finished?
China?
Does China get all the gold then?

Those who won the interim between the end of WWII, and 2010 are the gold sellers in 1980, but only if they avoided the Bubbles, or at the least, got into and out of them deftly. Hopefully they bought some more gold at $280, just in case it all happened again.

Was that the, or perhaps a "singularity"?

Certainly I hope it was a singularity...I don't want to go on another such ride again, particularly since I started in 1955, and actually remember most of it.

On a related topic, naively, what will the FED do when they own all of the bonds?

They presumably were deft in getting into and out of all the bubbles...or even fomented them, so I doubt that it matters all that much to them, but I suppose they will attempt to keep the US Dollar alive until the economy recovers, and they can sell the tax payer's bonds back to the tax payers, who at long last rejoice to find something stable to invest in!

And at a profit, of course, for such wise, long term asset management.

[FRED]

Re: 10 year yield on U.S. treasury note since 1790

Odd, though, that the chart notes clearly a 2010 bottom with a 1945 bottom...with such high high's in the midst thereof. Very curious, this chart. It suggests so many possibilities when you consider what was happening then...does this cover the interim between World Wars?

Charts run right out of FRED are a piece of cake.

Did you know we had a 58% inflation rate and 6.5% call money rate in 1865? Call money rate of 11% in 1870 when inflation was 4%? Credit markets were darned inefficient in the old days. To finish this we need a data series that's equivalent to a call money loan after the 1930s.

We have a bunch of these in the subscriber area. See how long rates and inflation fail to correlate to inflation until the 1960s?

[Forrest]

Re: 10 year yield on U.S. treasury note since 1790

Did you know we had a 58% inflation rate and 6.5% call money rate in 1865? Call money rate of 11% in 1870 when inflation was 4%? Credit markets were darned inefficient in the old days. To finish this we need a data series that's equivalent to a call money loan after the 1930s.

We have a bunch of these in the subscriber area. See how long rates and inflation fail to correlate to inflation until the 1960s?

1865 - end of the Civil war + Fiat currency

1870 - Boom Town USA + Gold/Silver Currency

1933 - Confiscation of Gold as Currency/Bullion

1965...1965? What changed? We were in Gold Internationally until 1971...were people beginning to notice the approaching danger of default?

[vinoveri]

Re: 10 year yield on U.S. treasury note since 1790

1865 - end of the Civil war + Fiat currency

1870 - Boom Town USA + Gold/Silver Currency

1933 - Confiscation of Gold as Currency/Bullion

1965...1965? What changed? We were in Gold Internationally until 1971...were people beginning to notice the approaching danger of default?

Coincidently, silver was demonetized beginning in 1965. As I understand it, gold was already beginning to leave the US in increasing amounts via redemptions under Bretton Woods by this time.

[Forrest]

Re: 10 year yield on U.S. treasury note since 1790

Coincidently, silver was demonetized beginning in 1965. As I understand it, gold was already beginning to leave the US in increasing amounts via redemptions under Bretton Woods by this time.

Look at the chart http://www.itulip.com/images2/LTGovt...9-2012wtmk.png.

You can only see a moderation of reported inflation against bond prices as we proceed to a completely fiat dollar, and fiat currencies world wide.

And unfortunately, the first half of the 20th century was fraught with war; depression; social repression, moral regression, and a rise in criminal behavior due to it; a change to economy of scale in manufacturing; more and bigger war, then the US starting over as the big kid on the block for a measely 25 years during which we had managed ourselves into National bankruptcy by 1970...The Big Lie started in 1971...with that charming fellow, Nixon.

Now that we live in an international money scam, it's hard to know the value of anything, while the price changes day by day.

I can only revert to the needs hiercharchy....water, food, clothing, shelter, and a means of obtaining those things. I wonder what is the basic cost of that, and in what currency I will be paying it in, and how that compares to the long bond.

There really is almost too much change in the past century to track inflation against the long bond alone...one could say that we are not talking apples and oranges any more, and that the world market still has a long way to go before one could say it is stable enough to compare inflation and bonds alone on a chart to see their effect on one another alone.