What is th edeal with GOLD???

[coolhand]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

My fear for freegolders is that they'll ride gold all the way up, then all the way down waiting for it to hit 50k+

You can tell a freegolder & how strong their understanding of freegold is by their reaction to this sell-off. Personally, the lower the price of COMEX gold goes, the more excited I become.

Gold isn't ever going to hit $55,000 on the COMEX, at least not for some period of time after freegold occurs. The COMEX has to be broken & turned to a cash-only market. My guess is that the 1st time you will see "freegold" at some big #, it will be quoted in either Euros or Yuan, in Europe or Shanghai.

Once it hits there, it may fluctuate around a bit, but it won't drop enough to matter. In much the same way that you don't hear a lot of people worried about the Dow going back to the 770 level it hit in August 1982...maybe the dow will fall back to 10,000, or God forbid back to 6500 like 2009, but if you think its going back to 770, I would advise getting some anti-depressants...lol

[BadJuju]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

The debt grows exponentially. We have a debt-backed currency system. The day the debt stops growing exponentially is the day the system collapses. The only time the debt has stopped growing exponentially in the past 60 yrs has been in 2008-09 when the US financial system almost collapsed. Go look at the chart "TCMDO" in the St. Louis' Fed's FRED database...its the prettiest exponential growth chart you'll ever see...textbook...which it has to be, by definition.

As far as your 2nd comment, the real world policy translation of your statement "screw social security & medicare I hope they burn to the ground" is "screw 78m baby boomers...I hope they die quickly"...

That is the political reality of the situation. 70% of Americans are on prescription Rx's...if Medicare & Soc Sec "burn to the ground" as you say, stuff will get very hairy very quickly...I don't know what the right outcome is, but I'm pretty sure "screw 'em" is on the palatable menu of options...

That we do, but it is only the way it is because of the debt issuance and monetization. When the SHTF, you better believe Medicare and SS will be overhauled or done away with in favor of new systems that will radically change the debt trajectory.

Your figure is wrong about the amount of Americans on prescription medication. Even then, the definition for prescription medication is pretty broad. I wonder how much it can be attributed to fighting the effects of obesity. I am personally dependent on TRT, but if worse comes to worst, I'll just get it on the sly. I don't receive any medicare, social security, or insurance to cover what I have to pay ($250 a month) to be healthy.

No one is helping my ass, but my generation is supposed to help all the other generations. Sorry, but I am not gonna play ball.

[coolhand]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

That we do, but it is only the way it is because of the debt issuance and monetization. When the SHTF, you better believe Medicare and SS will be overhauled or done away with in favor of new systems that will radically change the debt trajectory.

Your figure is wrong about the amount of Americans on prescription medication. Even then, the definition for prescription medication is pretty broad. I wonder how much it can be attributed to fighting the effects of obesity. I am personally dependent on TRT, but if worse comes to worst, I'll just get it on the sly. I don't receive any medicare, social security, or insurance to cover what I have to pay ($250 a month) to be healthy. So

I'm sure much of it comes from obesity. As far as overhaul, watch Obamacare. Ever notice what it's full name is? "Affordable Care Act."

If you think that means they are trying to make it more affordable for you & me, I have a bridge to sell you. "Affordable Care Act" does come off the tongue so much nicer than the "Significant Rationing of Care Act", doesn't it?

[shiny!]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

Have you checked out the Federal debt recently? Or the total obligations of the US Federal gov't through Medicare/Medicaid/Social Security? Call it a round $200T, roughly 12x GDP? Way bigger than any other nation in the history of the world?

That is a function of the Petrodollar...

Your view is similar to that of the fish - if you asked a fish to describe its environment, the very last thing it would describe would be the water. Similarly most American economists & Americans that would describe the American economy ignore the "water to the fish" of the US economy - the Petrodollar system.

If oil is no longer priced in dollars, let me assure you in the strongest possible terms that the effects will be much, much greater than simply gasoline going from $3 to $6 or $7 or $8/gallon in short order.

The Fed will have to buy the whole UST market with printed money, for starters. The strategy of borrowing money from China to buy weapons filled with Chinese components to surround & threaten China will be shown to be what the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (boss of the military) called it last year in an interview: "Unsustainable."

I could go on & on, but trust me, there's a lot more to it than that. Americans have no idea how far above our heads we've all been living since 1971. We're about to find out.

I agree, but what I'm fuzzy on is exactly how day-to-day life will change when we "find out". What can we expect to happen?

Phoenix is in a severe heatwave and my A/C died on Saturday night. One cannot live here in the summer without air conditioning. My home was over 100 degrees inside. It got fixed an hour ago and we're still trying to cool off. For awhile there I wondered if some of my pets were going to make it.

If, for example, the future entails disruption of electricity distribution, then I definitely need to move to a mild climate that can sustain life without supplemental heat or air conditioning. Someplace with adequate water and a low cost of living. Preferably someplace with good mass transit where I wouldn't need to own a car. That "someplace" is not easy to find. There's South America, but the thought of going there alone and enduring such culture shock by myself is daunting.

What about food and other necessities? What good will be a few months worth of stored food if this is going to be for the rest of our lives? Or will life go on with a new normal after temporary disruptions?

[coolhand]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

I agree, but what I'm fuzzy on is exactly how day-to-day life will change when we "find out". What can we expect to happen?

Phoenix is in a severe heatwave and my A/C died on Saturday night. One cannot live here in the summer without air conditioning. My home was over 100 degrees inside. It got fixed an hour ago and we're still trying to cool off. For awhile there I wondered if some of my pets were going to make it.

If, for example, the future entails disruption of electricity distribution, then I definitely need to move to a mild climate that can sustain life without supplemental heat or air conditioning. Someplace with adequate water and a low cost of living. Preferably someplace with good mass transit where I wouldn't need to own a car. That "someplace" is not easy to find. There's South America, but the thought of going there alone and enduring such culture shock by myself is daunting.

What about food and other necessities? What good will be a few months worth of stored food if this is going to be for the rest of our lives? Or will life go on with a new normal after temporary disruptions?

I don't know what the right answer is, but I am struck by the fact that all around the US, the average American is flocking to areas that were largely uninhabitable just 100 years ago (TX, AZ, NV, S. FL) & which are set up for car-only transport.

I don't think electrical grid stuff changes much; but I think the diesel-fuel driven side of infrastructure will go through a hairy 3-6 months of transition potentially...which is scary b/c there's only 3 days of food at the grocery stores...i know i personally run the opposite risk...if i lost power in winter, things would get cold...but I have wood burning stoves & 4 acres of woods so I would make it...

I was an Eagle Scout, so "Be Prepared" is part of my everyday thought process. Once you've spent 2 weeks some place where help is at least 4-5 hours away, you think about "preparedness" differently than most US people...my friends in the military think the same way ("3 is 2, 2 is 1, 1 is none.") Most Americans think it can't happen. They should ask the people in New Orleans...the country's economy was booming then & it took the Feds 5 days to show up...

I don't know what the right answer is, all I know is preparedness is cheap & pays big dividends in terms of peace of mind, IMO...best of luck, & glad to hear you are cooling back down...

[shiny!]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

I don't know what the right answer is, but I am struck by the fact that all around the US, the average American is flocking to areas that were largely uninhabitable just 100 years ago (TX, AZ, NV, S. FL) & which are set up for car-only transport.

I don't think electrical grid stuff changes much; but I think the diesel-fuel driven side of infrastructure will go through a hairy 3-6 months of transition potentially...which is scary b/c there's only 3 days of food at the grocery stores...i know i personally run the opposite risk...if i lost power in winter, things would get cold...but I have wood burning stoves & 4 acres of woods so I would make it...

I was an Eagle Scout, so "Be Prepared" is part of my everyday thought process. Once you've spent 2 weeks some place where help is at least 4-5 hours away, you think about "preparedness" differently than most US people...my friends in the military think the same way ("3 is 2, 2 is 1, 1 is none.") Most Americans think it can't happen. They should ask the people in New Orleans...the country's economy was booming then & it took the Feds 5 days to show up...

I don't know what the right answer is, all I know is preparedness is cheap & pays big dividends in terms of peace of mind, IMO...best of luck, & glad to hear you are cooling back down...

Oh, I'm big on preparedness. But when paradigm shifts happen, the things we didn't think to prepare for are often the things for which we should have prepared. With everything being so dependent on oil and our systems being so interconnected and complex, I'm just trying to anticipate how the disruptions may manifest.

People lived in TX, NV, FL, AZ etc. for thousands of years, but not in such dense populations. People lived in Phoenix until the 50's without A/C, but in those days houses were built with large windows and shady verandas, and the place wasn't a sea of black asphalt and gravel yards. Because Phoenix is such a giant heatsink now, summer temps get hotter than they used to and they don't cool off much at night. We've taken a hot climate and made it a deadly hot climate.

One summer several years ago, a power transformer blew out in the Phoenix Metro Valley. There wasn't a spare. It took two weeks to get another transformer down here from Oregon, IIRC. During that time there were rolling brownouts and talk of cutting off electric service to parts of the valley for hours at a time. There was absolutely no redundancy in the system!

Inconveniences I don't mind, but I don't like my life depending on systems I can't control.

[Southernguy]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

I agree, but what I'm fuzzy on is exactly how day-to-day life will change when we "find out". What can we expect to happen?

Phoenix is in a severe heatwave and my A/C died on Saturday night. One cannot live here in the summer without air conditioning. My home was over 100 degrees inside. It got fixed an hour ago and we're still trying to cool off. For awhile there I wondered if some of my pets were going to make it.

If, for example, the future entails disruption of electricity distribution, then I definitely need to move to a mild climate that can sustain life without supplemental heat or air conditioning. Someplace with adequate water and a low cost of living. Preferably someplace with good mass transit where I wouldn't need to own a car. That "someplace" is not easy to find. There's South America, but the thought of going there alone and enduring such culture shock by myself is daunting.

What about food and other necessities? What good will be a few months worth of stored food if this is going to be for the rest of our lives? Or will life go on with a new normal after temporary disruptions?

100 F is pretty hot. Nearly 38 celsius.
Here it is hot in summer. Maybe not that hot.
I don't have AC.
If you have a correctly insulated home and you take care about opening doors and windows by night (usually dry climates as I think Texas is become quite cold at night) and close everything during the day you probably get a bearable temperature by the day.
The other tip I would suggest comes directly from physics: when water evaporates it takes 800 Kcal. per gram.
So, a ventilator (be it portable or ceiling types) is very effective at cooling people (and pets).
When air circulates around, your keep not much clothing on, perspiration evaporates and cools the body. Of course, ventilators spend much less energy than AC and are very cheap to replace-fix if they break.
I find AC is necessary on vehicles unless you open windows and stand the noise of the street, but hardly so on homes.
If you want energy independence solar photovoltaic systems (off grid types) are getting cheaper by the day specially if you don't plan them for AC.

[shiny!]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

100 F is pretty hot. Nearly 38 celsius.
Here it is hot in summer. Maybe not that hot.
I don't have AC.
If you have a correctly insulated home and you take care about opening doors and windows by night (usually dry climates as I think Texas is become quite cold at night) and close everything during the day you probably get a bearable temperature by the day.
The other tip I would suggest comes directly from physics: when water evaporates it takes 800 Kcal. per gram.
So, a ventilator (be it portable or ceiling types) is very effective at cooling people (and pets).
When air circulates around, your keep not much clothing on, perspiration evaporates and cools the body. Of course, ventilators spend much less energy than AC and are very cheap to replace-fix if they break.
I find AC is necessary on vehicles unless you open windows and stand the noise of the street, but hardly so on homes.
If you want energy independence solar photovoltaic systems (off grid types) are getting cheaper by the day specially if you don't plan them for AC.

Thank you for the good advice. Uruguay is definitely cooler than Phoenix in the summer, and colder in the winter.

When it was 100+ degrees in my home, it was 116F (46C) outside. It was still over 100F inside and out at 10pm. I tried to take a cold shower but the cold water was scalding hot and never cooled off. No amount of opening or closing windows keeps a house bearable when you have heat like that. We also have higher than normal humidity now because it's the rainy season, so evaporative coolers don't work. I wish they did. We used evap coolers in New Mexico and they worked great except for a few days every summer, but here it's too hot and humid for them.

My home is a mobile home with a metal roof. I've done everything within reason to make this house as cool and energy efficient as possible, but it only goes so far.

Currently it's "only" 108F (42.2C) outside. The A/C got fixed at 9:30am, but six hours later it's still struggling to get the heat down in the house. I was doing OK until a little while ago when I had to take the dog to the vet. The heat really got to both of us. I don't have heatstroke but do have heat exhaustion. Drinking lots of electrolytes. My pets are exhausted, too.

[Southernguy]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

"My home is a mobile home with a metal roof"
Sorry; I assume you can`t insulate such a place.
Maybe you could try (I probable say something you have already done or thought about doing) putting a plastic net, they are dark colored, black or dark green, several layers of it over your home.
It should be separated from the roof.
The sun hitting directly over a metal surface creates a kind of heat very difficult to dissipate.
When I spoke of "ventilators" I was meaning "fans" (my english is always lacking), simple fans. Even if the air they move is hot, evaporation causes temperature to be lower.
Hope you are better now.
Regards

[shiny!]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

Ah, I understand. Your English is excellent, Southernguy. Much better than my Spanish!

The roof of my house has been painted with a rubberized white paint called "elastomeric coating" which reflects heat and insulates it to some extent. Thanks to your idea, I'm going to look into making a structure to suspend a panel of shade cloth over the roof.

My husband replaced the windows with double-pane insulated windows. I planted a grapevine on the west end of the house to keep the sun from striking that wall in the afternoon. The leaves look very pretty over the window. Last summer I had someone seal the air ducts and replace the insulation under the house, insulating the ducts and water pipes that run under the floor. The A/C and heater are much more efficient now. The insulation in the walls is actually very good.

I removed the stove last year; it made the kitchen too hot. Now I use a very cool portable induction cooktop for cooking, and a countertop convection oven. It doesn't make the kitchen hot. As a result, the kitchen and west side of the house are much cooler now.

When the A/C died the fan continued to run so air was circulating, but it was hot air. You're correct though, it was better than nothing.

It's now 106 degrees outside and 80 degrees inside. The animals are starting to perk up a bit. Surprisingly, my oldest cat, the 18 year old girl with failing kidneys is recovering the quickest from this ordeal. Grace is such a tiny little kitty, just skin and bones, but she's amazingly tough! The 12 and 13 year old boy cats, and the big, strong 4 year old dog are still totally wiped out, as is their mom. I should be OK in a day or two.

[loweyecue]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

Took a while to catch up and read the article. Excellent explanation that even I could follow (for the most part ). Also Coolhand's comments on the Euro situation in the thread associated with EJ's article were very interesting and informative. Thanks everyone for sharing your thoughts. I love the wealth of information and knowledge on this site.

[cobben]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

To be honest, I am at fault. Every time I come back to Sweden, gold gets trashed, exactly to the day.
Well, at least this year it's turned out that way every time.
I'm sure I can find a statistician somewhere who will tell you that two times out of two is statistically significant.

Bump.

I'm coming back to Sweden in the evening (local time) on the 9th of April.

You have been warned.

(No, I did not inform Martin Armstrong of my arrival, neither did he pay me to come back to Sweden on the 9th . . . but I am open to offers .)

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/0...-turning-down/


We see a low ideally forming temporarily as early as tomorrow. If gold bounces into a marginal high next week on the 9th, then lookout below thereafter.

[friendly_jacek]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

Thanks for reviving this interesting thread. I tried to take inventory of gold/silver sentiments on the net and the score is very mixed. While there is no exuberance, there are lots of bullish gurus out there, so the recent lows may not be The bottom yet, at least in silver. Palladium COT numbers are very worrisome at the moment too considered from a contrarian perspective.

As much as I would like to believe 2013=1976, I still have some doubts. The April 2011 bubble action in silver did sound like The major top not unlike what we saw in 1980 or so and the price action since confirmed that. It takes a lot to invigorate the animal spirits wounded after the bubble bursts and I'm not sure if we are there yet.

Anything more recent on gold from EJ? As far as I understand his recent writings, he believes the stocks can keep rising well into the 2014 or even 2015. That would put more pressure into PM, IMHO.