What is th edeal with GOLD???

[rogermexico]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

EJ writes for the long game not short term trading. He wrote about his portfolio in 2001 as a long term buy and hold because he didn't want, what most likely are investors who are novices almost everyone on iTulip, to try and trade around events like this because very few of us are in hedge funds etc aka insiders.

With that said, I do trade and buy stocks. I bought some equities in April of 2009. I bought equities in 2010, 2011, 2012 and even now 2013.

During the coming months (6 months) I will most likely be moving into short equity index positions and long vol positions depending on how the market looks.

Two months ago vol hit just about historic lows, that is when I like to buy.

I assume you mean volatility as measured by the VIX? Some might not know what you mean by this or even that you can trade that. You can and it's a good idea if you can predict the turmoil.

One future problem to be cognizant of and that I see in a Janszen Scenario event is that investors will pile in to equities near the bottom like some did in March 2009 but there will be no reflation as before.

The last 3 major crashes in the US equity markets have now conditioned investors to believe that the equity market will quickly rebound (87, 2001, 2008).

But what if the next equity crash turns into Japan's equity crash and no reflation of the early 1990's?

IMO the equity non-reflation event I speak if is conditional on the US FIRE Economy finally being put to death and the world psychologically not seeing the UST and USD as reserve asset and currency even if it still is.

That is an important point. I've said I regretted not buying in 2008 but that doesn't mean I assume that it would work a fourth time. My regret was more that in fact 2008 might have been the last time you could bet on the "Fed Put" - what we used to call the Greenspan put.... And that we were willing to surf the artificial bond market big wave, so why not the artificial equity one?

[jacobdcoates]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

This post for Gonzalo Lira seem relevant as to why gold is not rising/ and or sinking. http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2013...ld-higher.html. I do own a small amount of silver, but no where near as much as most of the forums do.

[doom&gloom]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

I assume you mean volatility as measured by the VIX? Some might not know what you mean by this or even that you can trade that. You can and it's a good idea if you can predict the turmoil.



That is an important point. I've said I regretted not buying in 2008 but that doesn't mean I assume that it would work a fourth time. My regret was more that in fact 2008 might have been the last time you could bet on the "Fed Put" - what we used to call the Greenspan put.... And that we were willing to surf the artificial bond market big wave, so why not the artificial equity one?

You may yet get to surf them both... On the way down.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

I assume you mean volatility as measured by the VIX? Some might not know what you mean by this or even that you can trade that. You can and it's a good idea if you can predict the turmoil.



That is an important point. I've said I regretted not buying in 2008 but that doesn't mean I assume that it would work a fourth time. My regret was more that in fact 2008 might have been the last time you could bet on the "Fed Put" - what we used to call the Greenspan put.... And that we were willing to surf the artificial bond market big wave, so why not the artificial equity one?

Thanks RM. Yes, volatility instruments like VXX which track the VIX. There is also SH and SPXU (not always the best liquidity) from proshares that short the S&P 500.

[coolhand]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

The long game? I would like to point out that a seven times return on your money over 3 years is a bit different from the same return over 20 years. In the long run, we are all dead, etc, etc.

Spoken like a true American who has no idea what a currency crisis looks like or how much America's lifestyle has been subsidized by issuing the reserve currency from a printing press for the past 42 years..."exorbitant privilege" is ending..."it's our currency but it's your problem" is about to become "it's our currency & it's our problem."

[BadJuju]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

Spoken like a true American who has no idea what a currency crisis looks like or how much America's lifestyle has been subsidized by issuing the reserve currency from a printing press for the past 42 years..."exorbitant privilege" is ending..."it's our currency but it's your problem" is about to become "it's our currency & it's our problem."

Big car living has been subsidized and an insane federal budget due to bloat. Not much else.

[coolhand]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

Big car living has been subsidized. Not much else.

Have you checked out the Federal debt recently? Or the total obligations of the US Federal gov't through Medicare/Medicaid/Social Security? Call it a round $200T, roughly 12x GDP? Way bigger than any other nation in the history of the world?

That is a function of the Petrodollar...

Your view is similar to that of the fish - if you asked a fish to describe its environment, the very last thing it would describe would be the water. Similarly most American economists & Americans that would describe the American economy ignore the "water to the fish" of the US economy - the Petrodollar system.

If oil is no longer priced in dollars, let me assure you in the strongest possible terms that the effects will be much, much greater than simply gasoline going from $3 to $6 or $7 or $8/gallon in short order.

The Fed will have to buy the whole UST market with printed money, for starters. The strategy of borrowing money from China to buy weapons filled with Chinese components to surround & threaten China will be shown to be what the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (boss of the military) called it last year in an interview: "Unsustainable."

I could go on & on, but trust me, there's a lot more to it than that. Americans have no idea how far above our heads we've all been living since 1971. We're about to find out.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

Spoken like a true American who has no idea what a currency crisis looks like or how much America's lifestyle has been subsidized by issuing the reserve currency from a printing press for the past 42 years..."exorbitant privilege" is ending..."it's our currency but it's your problem" is about to become "it's our currency & it's our problem."

Osmose is not American coolhand.

[BadJuju]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

I could go on & on, but trust me, there's a lot more to it than that. Americans have no idea how far above our heads we've all been living since 1971. We're about to find out.

We'll see, but I think freegold is bunk.

Also, it is so silly to describe future debt obligations based on current trajectory as if that debt exists now. That is just such a ridiculous thing to do. And it just seems like it grows exponentially every time a freegolder mentions it.

Anyway, screw social security and medicare. I don't benefit from it and nor will I ever. I hope they burn to the ground.

[verdo]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

I'd like to know actually how freegolders come up with their $55 000/ounce gold call.

[shiny!]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

Anyway, screw social security and medicare. I don't benefit from it and nor will I ever. I hope they burn to the ground.

Wow, that's pretty harsh. When I read posts like this it sounds to me like you advocate the elimination (a polite euphamism for death) of everyone who isn't young and fit, who isn't lucky enough to live in a climate where they can walk or bicycle everywhere like you do, or who have families and jobs that necessitate the need for personal transportation. Are you really so hard-hearted towards the lives and struggles of others, or is this nihilism coming from depression or fear or something else?

One way of looking at things is that in the end we're all dead anyway, so nothing matters. But thinking like that only leads to more depression, because while we live, we are organized from the DNA up to support life, not death. Personally, I've found that even when I'm feeling cut off from all things light and good, this philosophy makes me happier:

"If there is no great glorious end to all this, if nothing we do matters, then all that matters is what we do. 'Cause that's all there is. What we do. Now. Today ... All I wanna do is help. I wanna help because, I don't think people should suffer as they do. Because, if there's no bigger meaning, then the smallest act of kindness is the greatest thing in the world."

[coolhand]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

We'll see, but I think freegold is bunk.

Also, it is so silly to describe future debt obligations based on current trajectory as if that debt exists now. That is just such a ridiculous thing to do. And it just seems like it grows exponentially every time a freegolder mentions it.

Anyway, screw social security and medicare. I don't benefit from it and nor will I ever. I hope they burn to the ground.

The debt grows exponentially. We have a debt-backed currency system. The day the debt stops growing exponentially is the day the system collapses. The only time the debt has stopped growing exponentially in the past 60 yrs has been in 2008-09 when the US financial system almost collapsed. Go look at the chart "TCMDO" in the St. Louis' Fed's FRED database...its the prettiest exponential growth chart you'll ever see...textbook...which it has to be, by definition.

As far as your 2nd comment, the real world policy translation of your statement "screw social security & medicare I hope they burn to the ground" is "screw 78m baby boomers...I hope they die quickly"...

That is the political reality of the situation. 70% of Americans are on prescription Rx's...if Medicare & Soc Sec "burn to the ground" as you say, stuff will get very hairy very quickly...I don't know what the right outcome is, but I'm pretty sure "screw 'em" is on the palatable menu of options...

[coolhand]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

I'd like to know actually how freegolders come up with their $55 000/ounce gold call

There's a couple different routes to get there, depending on school of thought - % of UST's outstanding; % of paper gold obligations to actual physical; what price does gold have to get to in order to price oil effectively (86m b/d of oil x $100 is a much bigger # than 2500 tons of gold mined per yr at $1200)

I don't even know the right answer, other than the price has to be much bigger than here. The $55,000/oz # i've seen is the peak of a bell curve of options.

[verdo]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

There's a couple different routes to get there, depending on school of thought - % of UST's outstanding; % of paper gold obligations to actual physical; what price does gold have to get to in order to price oil effectively (86m b/d of oil x $100 is a much bigger # than 2500 tons of gold mined per yr at $1200)

I don't even know the right answer, other than the price has to be much bigger than here. The $55,000/oz # i've seen is the peak of a bell curve of options.

My fear for freegolders is that they'll ride gold all the way up, then all the way down waiting for it to hit 50k+

[BadJuju]

Re: What is th edeal with GOLD???

Wow, that's pretty harsh. When I read posts like this it sounds to me like you advocate the elimination (a polite euphamism for death) of everyone who isn't young and fit, who isn't lucky enough to live in a climate where they can walk or bicycle everywhere like you do, or who have families and jobs that necessitate the need for personal transportation. Are you really so hard-hearted towards the lives and struggles of others, or is this nihilism coming from depression or fear or something else?

Those systems need to die for better systems to come into place. I am not against social welfare, but those systems are abject failures. The amount of money spent in the United States for social welfare dwarfs other nations while delivering far less. And I do not intend upon bearing the burden for them when my generation has gotten the shaft by previous generations. And like I have said before, I live in an area that experiences all four seasons intensely. It has rained almost 40 inches here so far this year. It is unbearably hot at 100 heat index usually. People just need to nut up about getting rid of their expensive vehicles. They will either do it or they will just have to never leave the house. You are right that I am nihilistic, though.