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  • And now Brazilians are protesting

    The one place outside of MENA that you don't want to start seeing protests is SA...

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...st-two-decades

    many as 200,000 demonstrators marched through the streets of Brazil's biggest cities on Monday in a swelling wave of protest tapping into widespread anger at poor public services, police violence and government corruption.
    The marches, organized mostly through snowballing social media campaigns, blocked streets and halted traffic in more than a half-dozen cities, including Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte and Brasilia, where demonstrators climbed onto the roof of Brazil's Congress building and then stormed it.

    Monday's demonstrations were the latest in a flurry of protests in the past two weeks that have added to growing unease over Brazil's sluggish economy, high inflation and a spurt in violent crime.

    While most of the protests unfolded as a festive display of dissent, some demonstrators in Rio threw rocks at police, set fire to a parked car and vandalized the state assembly building. Vandals also destroyed property in the southern city of Porto Alegre.

    Around the country, protesters waved Brazilian flags, dancing and chanting slogans such as "The people have awakened" and "Pardon the inconvenience, Brazil is changing."

    The epicenter of Monday's march shifted from Sao Paulo, where some 65,000 people took to the streets late in the afternoon, to Rio. There, as protesters gathered throughout the evening, crowds ballooned to 100,000 people, local police said. At least 20,000 more gathered in Belo Horizonte.

    The demonstrations are the first time that Brazilians, since a recent decade of steady economic growth, are collectively questioning the status quo.
    Bloomberg added a geopolitical and economic twist to events:




    Francisco Soares, a 32-year-old Brasilia electrician, felt good about life two years ago when he started commuting in his first car, blasting the music and passing packed buses. Since then, bills started piling up, the cost of living jumped and last week he had to sell his wheels.

    After a decade that saw 40 million people rise from poverty, Brazil’s middle class finds itself squeezed by faster inflation, rising debt and a weaker currency. Consumers are spending less at supermarkets and hairdressers as the classic weekend event, a prime cut barbecue, becomes a stretch for some. Continuing a wave of protests sparked by an increase in bus fares, demonstrators surrounded Congress in Brasilia yesterday and set a car on fire in Rio de Janeiro as tens of thousands marched in major cities.

    The emerging middle class was the engine of economic growth and made the developing nation one of the world’s top five markets for cars and mobile phones. It also helped the Workers’ Party win its third straight presidential election in 2010. Now, as the dream of a new car and a trip to Disney World fades for some, so does support for President Dilma Rousseff, who was jeered at a packed soccer stadium on June 15. Asked whether he would vote for her again, as he did in 2010, Soares said: “No way.”

    “The golden days are over, the feel-good factor is lost,” said Renato Fragelli, economics professor at the Fundacao Getulio Vargas, a business think tank in Rio de Janeiro. “It’s not that the middle class is disappearing but there’s been a setback, people feel they’re getting less for their money.”
    Is Brazil be returning to a time of political instability driven by a relapse in the wealth effect:




    After Latin America’s biggest economy expanded less than economists forecast for the past five quarters and inflation accelerated, the approval rating of Rousseff’s government fell eight percentage points in June from March, the first drop since she took office in January 2011, according to a Datafolha opinion survey published June 9. The poll interviewed 3,758 people June 6-7 and had a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

    Still, at 57 percent, Rousseff’s government support is 10 percentage points higher than in March 2011, according to Datafolha. The 65-year-old Rousseff remains the favorite to win the October 2014 presidential race, commanding 49 percent of voter intention, according to Datafolha. Marina Silva, a former environment minister who finished third in the 2010 presidential race, ranked second with 14 percent, while Aecio Neves, the candidate of the main opposition party, ranked third with 12 percent of voter intention.

  • #2
    Re: And now Brazilians are protesting

    More pictures from Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2...il.html#slide1

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    • #3
      Re: And now Brazilians are protesting

      Thanks for this information, PoZ. I hope that you will keep us up to date on your perspective regarding Brazil. I get the distinct feeling that there's a lot that could be happening there soon, either good or bad.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: And now Brazilians are protesting

        Originally posted by astonas View Post
        Thanks for this information, PoZ. I hope that you will keep us up to date on your perspective regarding Brazil. I get the distinct feeling that there's a lot that could be happening there soon, either good or bad.
        Thanks Astonas much appreciated but I just have some first hand experience there and many friends in finance etc from there.

        I still owe you a PM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: And now Brazilians are protesting

          Around the country, protesters waved Brazilian flags, dancing and chanting slogans such as "The people have awakened" and "Pardon the inconvenience, Brazil is changing."
          I very much doubt it. Brazil, samba and supermodels notwithstanding, is a ruthless police state. It was well on its way toward becoming a liberal social democracy but that beneficent outcome was cut short following the U.S. sponsored coup against Jango Goulart in April of 1964. What Brazilians got instead was 40 years of a fascist military dictatorship that used torture, kidnapping, rape and murder to silence any opposition.

          There's every reason to expect that this will be put down with much violence. Any person considered by the Brazilian authorities as a "subversive" will be dealt with harshly, either overtly or through extralegal means. I shiver at the thought of what is in store for them.

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          • #6
            Re: And now Brazilians are protesting

            Originally posted by Woodsman View Post
            I very much doubt it. Brazil, samba and supermodels notwithstanding, is a ruthless police state. It was well on its way toward becoming a liberal social democracy but that beneficent outcome was cut short following the U.S. sponsored coup against Jango Goulart in April of 1964. What Brazilians got instead was 40 years of a fascist military dictatorship that used torture, kidnapping, rape and murder to silence any opposition.

            There's every reason to expect that this will be put down with much violence. Any person considered by the Brazilian authorities as a "subversive" will be dealt with harshly, either overtly or through extralegal means. I shiver at the thought of what is in store for them.
            First let me say that I do NOT approve of our imperialist actions agains nations of Latin America, and those actions of our past governments are one of the main reasons we are disliked or even hated by countries from Mexico to Tierra del Fuego.

            But neither of us knows what outcome would have eventuated had Goulart remained in power, yet I have strong doubts that it would have been "beneficient".
            He was likely to have produced for Brazil what Chavez has given to Venezuela and Peron bequeathed to Argentina.

            "His Basic Reforms Plan (Reformas de Base), which aimed at socializing the profits of large companies towards ensuring a better quality of life for most Brazilians ...

            The country's economic situation deteriorated rapidly, with attempts at stabilizing the currency being financed by aid packages from the International Monetary Fund. His failure to secure foreign investment and curb domestic inflation put the country in a difficult situation with exacerbated social conflicts.
            On March 13, 1964, Goulart gave a speech where he promised to nationalize the country's oil refineries, as well as carry out "basic reforms" including rent controls. ...

            He "failed to secure foreign investment". Yeah. I would have gladly "invested" in his Brazil so it would be readily available for confiscation.

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_Brazilian_coup_d'état

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            • #7
              Re: And now Brazilians are protesting

              Good to hear from you, Raz. Given the history we do know, I think it's fair to say that a Brazilian social democracy as envisioned by Goulart would have been infinitely preferable to the unmitigated political, economic and social disaster that struck Brazil following the 1964 coup. I think the people in the streets would agree , although I do wish they would go home before things get ugly.

              Goulart wasn't a Brazilian Castro or Chavez and never claimed to be. I would describe him as a moderate liberal (circa 1960s) with populist tendencies completely in the mainstream of Brazilian politics at the time. I think his personality and tone deafness toward the sensibilities of Brazilian military and economic elites accounted for much of his opposition, more so than any specific ideological conflict (although conflict there surely was).

              Goulart's opponents made much noise about his desire to nationalize parts of the economy as evidence of his radicalism. But then after taking power with the help of the American intelligence agencies, the generals went ahead and nationalized elements of the economy anyway. The military dictators were fine with picking winners and losers, so long as they got to do the picking (see the case of Panair, for instance ). You'll forgive me for being cheeky, but the Brazilian right thinks that state control and intervention is just dandy when it serves the interest of elites. When it serves the interests of the citizens, not so much. But what can one expect from a semi-feudal police state that until 2009 still had streets named after torturers and assassins.

              What seems always to be missing, then as now, is a sense of proportion inasmuch as social democracy is not synonymous with socialism and communism. Goulart was hardly a feijoada-eating version of Jefferson, but neither was he the Portuguese speaking Castro he was made out to be by his domestic opponents and the likes of George Ball and Harold Geneen. Their inflexible Manichean view of the world remains dominant and I believe is the cause of much human suffering and waste of irrecoverable resources. For Brazil, it meant more than 40 years of misery for all but the smallest slice of the population.

              By any reasonable standard, Goulart was a moderate liberal. He was most certainly the legal, constitutionally mandated president. Rightist elements in the legislature and military were able through dubious legal means to turn Goulart's office into a figurehead. Goulart then put the question to a democratic referendum and was able to restore his office. From my perspective, that's a plain reading of the phrase "consent of the governed." But the Brazilian military, economic elites and American intelligence agencies thought they knew what was best and set about on a coup. In the aftermath they wound up destroying Brazilian democracy and civil society, put an end to free speech and press, and began an indiscriminate terror and torture regime that in time would instigate a low level urban civil war.

              The coup was soon followed an internecine war between the generals that resulted in the probable assassination of three presidents, the establishment of a three-man military junta, and a series of repressive decrees ranging from the power to summarily fire judges and bureaucrats, the censorship of music and art, federal interference in county and city management, and a blanket assertion that any presidential decree was not subject to judicial review. And while the generals were in time able to gin up a brief period of 10% economic growth, the Brazilian miracle was a mirage fueled by massive IMF and World Bank loans and foreign direct investment with no lasting beneficent effects for the majority of Brazilians.

              And these same generals who overthrew (and eventually murdered) Goulart then turned towards creating the most bureaucratic, top-heavy, interventionist central government in the hemisphere, installing themselves and their cronies to head state industries like Petrobras. The 1964 coup even had international repercussions, as it set the stage for subsequent death squad operations and military coups in Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay with similarly murderous effects for their citizens.

              There's even reason to believe that the Brazilian military was behind the sudden death of President Tancredo Neves in 1985 prior to his taking office. Neves was an opponent of military rule. He led the Direct Elections Now movement that helped bring a return to civil rule prior to his selection as President by the Brazilian electoral college. Most significantly in the eyes of the generals, Neves had served as Goulart's Prime Minister. Not surprisingly, the vice president replacing Neves immediately upon his death was a supporter of the 64 coup. Call it irony or unintended consequences, but a coup purported to been motivated by a patriotic desire to save Brazil from socialist repression brought forth a regime indistinguishable in character and detail to the most repressive of Soviet aligned states in Europe, Asia or the Caribbean.

              Of course you're correct that neither of us can know how things might have turned out. But we can say with certainty that the rule of the generals turned out to be a political and economic disaster and is indefensible under any reading of history (and to be clear, you haven't defended it). While the external forms of democracy were nominally reestablished by the 90s, Brazilians are still paying the price for the destruction of civil society following the 1964 coup.

              It's also instructive that a reading of the general grievances of today's protesters align so well with Goulart's Base Reforms first proposed fifty years ago.

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