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  • Detroit's Economic Depression

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7097585.stm

    Detroit's woes augur ill for US
    By Adam Brookes
    BBC News, Detroit



    Americans are worried that hard times lie ahead. But in Detroit, Michigan, they have already arrived, with a vengeance.
    Michigan, by some calculations, has lost 400,000 jobs in the past seven years. That's in a state whose population is only 10 million.

    Detroit is seeing unemployment running at nearly 8%, twice the national average.

    The number of homes in the city "foreclosed" - or repossessed by mortgage lenders - is among the highest in the country.

    The city's charities are getting busier, a sign of economic distress.

    At Gleaners Community Food Bank, a charity which provides food to needy people, organisers report an upsurge in appeals for help.

    "This is ground zero when it comes to poverty," Augie Fernandez says. "Here we are in the capital of manufacturing and we're just seeing it dissipate away."

    A significant trend is now apparent to the Gleaners staff: a marked increase in the number of professional workers who are seeking food assistance.

    Prosperity to poverty

    Daniel Wolfe worked in civil engineering for 22 years. He lost his job eight months ago.

    We meet Daniel and his wife Cynthia as they collect free groceries from a charity food bank - cereal, muffins and tinned spaghetti sauce.

    Theirs is an extraordinary - and salutary - story, one which illustrates the fragility that often underlies American prosperity.

    Daniel had been earning $90,000 a year, he tells me. He's an articulate man, with a professional, warm demeanour.

    He was laid off when the state government, itself strapped by a shrinking tax base, cut back on contracts to private companies.

    In the course of eight months, Daniel and his family have gone from prosperity to poverty.

    His unemployment benefits expired. Much of that money had been spent on trying to keep up the family health insurance. And his savings disappeared, to the point where he says he is, quite literally, broke.

    It made me feel like a loser, like I wasn't able to provide even the basic things for my family, let alone anything beyond that
    Daniel Wolfe

    He had never before accepted charity.

    "To find myself in a position where I couldn't afford a gallon of milk, I couldn't afford a loaf of bread - it was very humbling," he says.

    "For want of a better term it made me feel like a loser, like I wasn't able to provide even the basic things for my family, let alone anything beyond that."

    I ask Daniel and Cynthia if they thought of themselves as middle class. They both answer yes. I ask if they still think of themselves as middle class.

    "I think we're on the poverty line right now," says Daniel. He wonders if he will be able to hold on to his house.

    Perfect storm

    Michigan's problems stem in large part from the troubles of the big car manufacturers.

    But there is much more. A perfect economic storm is hitting this state - falling property prices, a credit crunch, a shrinking tax base and rising oil prices.

    At a truck stop on Interstate 94, we found Michael Hatfield, the owner and operator of a huge purple rig.

    Every time the cost of fuel rises, he says, the cost of the vegetables he is hauling goes up, and his profit goes down.

    "My profit's gone down big time. That means my wage goes down because I own the truck and trailer," he says.

    "And it has a big effect at home. Luckily I got most everything paid for and my kids are grown. If I had little kids I'd be selling the truck."

    The American economy is geared to cheap, plentiful, fuel. But with prices over $3 a gallon for gasoline, family budgets and business plans all get squeezed.

    And winter's coming. How much to heat that big home that you can't sell?

    'Canary in the coalmine'

    So will Michigan's pain spread to the rest of the country?

    I believe what's happening here could happen to the rest of America if we don't watch ourselves
    Augie Fernandez

    Daniel Howes, a columnist for the Detroit News, tells me that at least some of Michigan's problems are specific to Michigan.

    "What's happened in this state is somewhat unique to the manufacturing and auto business," he says.

    "The Michigan economy has been tied to the auto business for a century. So it's hard to generalise that what's going to happen here is going to happen anywhere else."

    States that have more diversified economies may fare better during a national slowdown, he says.

    But back at Gleaners food bank, Augie Fernandez is wary. He calls Michigan the "canary in the coalmine".

    "Keep an eye on Michigan," he says. "I believe what's happening here could happen to the rest of America if we don't watch ourselves."

    Are economic difficulties causing you to cut back on your Christmas spending? Will you shop less during the Thanksgiving holidays this year than you did last year? Send us your comments using the form below:

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    Story from BBC NEWS:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/h...ss/7097585.stm

    Published: 2007/11/16 08:36:19 GMT

    © BBC MMVII

  • #2
    Re: Detroit's Economic Depression


    The first test, then of the new American monetary arrangements was not ambiguous. There was no improvement on the experience of the nineteenth century. Now a much more severe test was put in train. Those who arrange life for men of financial reputation and eminence are not favorable to rest.

    Following the depression of 1921 came the eight fat years. These were not fat for all. Farmers were disgruntled and articulate. Workers whose unions had been effectively broken by and during the 1921 slump; blacks and other minorities; women, needless to say - were all voiceless, and none could tell the extent of their dissatisfaction.

    What is certain is that beneath the pleasant facade there were flaws. Wages and prices from 1922 to 1929 were almost stable. Since both output and productivity were expanding (output per worker in manufacturing in the twenties increased by an estimated 43 per cent), this meant that profits were increasing. Net income for a sample of 84 large manufacturing firms nearly tripled between 1922 and 1929; their dividend payments doubled. Assisted by successive reductions in the income tax, this meant that the share of income going to the afluent for consumption and investment greatly increased. This income had to be spent or invested. Were anything to interrupt this consumption or investment, there would be a failure of demand - and trouble.

    galbraithmoney by J. K. Galbraith (1975)
    Chapter 13: The Self-Inflicted Wounds
    USA 1921, the 8 fat years that were not fat for everyone (Page 181 to 182)


    [media]http://www.itulip.com/movies/hitler1929edited.wmv[/media]
    Ed.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Detroit's Economic Depression
      "...Daniel Wolfe worked in civil engineering for 22 years. He lost his job eight months ago.

      We meet Daniel and his wife Cynthia as they collect free groceries from a charity food bank - cereal, muffins and tinned spaghetti sauce.

      Theirs is an extraordinary - and salutary - story, one which illustrates the fragility that often underlies American prosperity.

      Daniel had been earning $90,000 a year, he tells me. He's an articulate man, with a professional, warm demeanour.

      He was laid off when the state government, itself strapped by a shrinking tax base, cut back on contracts to private companies.

      In the course of eight months, Daniel and his family have gone from prosperity to poverty..."

      Mr. Wolfe would appear in his mid-40's with a civil engineering degree and practical work experience. Perhaps he should get himself lined up with Fluor or Foster Wheeler or any one of the other engineering firms that have order book backlogs into the next decade and are trying to find experienced talent anywhere they can. I notice the BBC didn't think to check that out. Hopefully Mr. Wolfe doesn't make the same mistake.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Detroit's Economic Depression

        Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
        Mr. Wolfe would appear in his mid-40's with a civil engineering degree and practical work experience. Perhaps he should get himself lined up with Fluor or Foster Wheeler or any one of the other engineering firms that have order book backlogs into the next decade and are trying to find experienced talent anywhere they can. I notice the BBC didn't think to check that out. Hopefully Mr. Wolfe doesn't make the same mistake.
        i have friends in Allentown, PA. i recall when the steel industry started to go down 20 yrs ago. theory was new industries were going to develop. they did, but they don't pay as well. like mr. wolfe, if you lived in Allentown and wanted to keep working in your profession you had to move.

        for the folks who stayed, you worked in health care.
        Economy


        The PPL Building (seen here in the distance) is the tallest building in Allentown. In the foreground is the Albertus L. Meyers Bridge, commonly known as the Eighth Street Bridge.

        While many of Allentown's major industrial businesses have disappeared over the past two decades, the city continues to serve as the location of corporate headquarters for several large, global companies, including Agere Systems, Air Products & Chemicals, Mack Trucks, Olympus Corporation USA, PPL and others.

        The largest employer in Allentown is Lehigh Valley Hospital and Health Network, with over 7,800 employees.
        but it isn't such a great place to live anymore...
        Crime statistics

        In 2006, the known criminal offenses in Allentown, as reported to the F.B.I., included around 800 violent crimes and over 7,000 property crimes. With the exception of aggravated assault, Allentown exceeded national averages in all criminal categories. Cases of arson in Allentown were nearly double the national average[1]. Other crimes in Allentown that substantially exceeded national averages were robbery, murder and forcible rape.

        The total reported violent crimes in Allentown was comparable to the 2003 national average (1.01 times the average). Individual violent crime rates per capita compared to U.S. national averages were: robbery (1.54 times avg.), murder (1.47 times avg.), forcible rape (1.32 times avg.), and aggravated assault (0.57 times avg.).

        The total reported property crimes in Allentown exceeded the 2003 national average by 1.21 times. Individual property crime rates per capita compared to the U.S. national average were: arson (1.71 times avg.), burglary (1.23 times avg.), larceny/theft (1.22 times avg.), and automobile theft (1.08 times avg.).

        The city's crime statistics have been heightened over the past decade by growing gang-related crime and gang rival violence. The city also has seen a growth in drug trafficking and prostitution.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Detroit's Economic Depression

          Originally posted by metalman View Post
          i have friends in Allentown, PA. i recall when the steel industry started to go down 20 yrs ago. theory was new industries were going to develop. they did, but they don't pay as well. like mr. wolfe, if you lived in Allentown and wanted to keep working in your profession you had to move.

          for the folks who stayed, you worked in health care.
          but it isn't such a great place to live anymore...
          At an individual or family level this seems harsh, but at a national economic level the mobility of people is one of the real competitive advantages of America. You have such a large country, with such a huge and diverse economy that there are always opportunities being created across a broad spectrum of economic sectors somewhere or another within your borders.

          Compare that to Europe, a collection of mostly small countries, with barriers and restrictions to movement of employable people, even within the European Union zone. In 2000 the EU leaders signed the Lisbon Strategy to deal with the fact that USA growth, productivity, and other economic measures continuously outperformed the Single Market zone. At the time the forecasts showed Eurozone aggregate growth would fall to about 1% in the long run. So far it doesn't look like they'll be catching the USA anytime soon.

          It means that people have to move, but if that's what it takes to create a vibrant economy with high employment, it sure beats hell out of sending your kids overseas with a rifle because there's no other opportunity for them.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Detroit's Economic Depression

            He was laid off when the state government, itself strapped by a shrinking tax base, cut back on contracts to private companies.

            too bad the michigan state gov't can't print money, that would solve everything.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Detroit's Economic Depression

              Originally posted by jk View Post
              He was laid off when the state government, itself strapped by a shrinking tax base, cut back on contracts to private companies.

              too bad the michigan state gov't can't print money, that would solve everything.
              Isn't that what a group of the states wanted to do around...oh...1860?
              Last edited by GRG55; November 18, 2007, 03:26 PM.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Detroit's Economic Depression

                Originally posted by jk View Post
                He was laid off when the state government, itself strapped by a shrinking tax base, cut back on contracts to private companies.

                too bad the michigan state gov't can't print money, that would solve everything.
                Coming to an over-indebted nation near you?
                Ed.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Detroit's Economic Depression

                  man you guys make realists like me look like optimists. correct me if i'm wrong, but during the depression wasn't unemployment over 20% in many places? 8% is about where many industrial countries are nowadays (europe?). And this sad-sack case, I'm sure he could get a job, he would just have to move. In the great depression, moving would not have helped matters much. Plus, a lot of the lost jobs are in autos, where it was the companies - not the state - that screwed up, by stagnating against Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, etc. I wonder how many new jobs toyota and hyundai have created around the country? My Toyota was built in America... so yeah, calling it a depression is a misnomer in all ways.

                  Now I'm not saying detroit is doing well. But I didn't notice any bread lines when I was there last april. And yes I was in the city itself for a bit. Didn't look any worse than Los Angeles, which has virtually no unemployment.

                  Comment

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