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**GRG55** · May 03, 2013, 11:57 PM

Re: Vancouver not goin' up!

Originally posted by Chomsky View Post

Vancouver home sales continue drop, post worst April in more than a decade

state Board of Greater Vancouver said sales in Greater Vancouver through its MLS system were down 6.1 per cent at 2,627 last month compared with 2,799 in April 2012. Sales were off 11.9 per cent compared with 2,347 in March 20
VANCOUVER � Home sales in one of Canada�s most expensive cities posted their worst April in more than a decade, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.

The board said Thursday sales in Greater Vancouver through its MLS system were down 6.1% at 2,627 last month compared with 2,799 in April 2012. Sales were off 11.9% compared with 2,347 in March 2013.

The results were also 20.9% lower than the 10-year sales average for April and the lowest for the month since 2001.

However, the real estate board said the declining sales has helped stabilize home prices in a traditionally expensive market.

New listings totalled 5,876 in April, up from 4,839 in March and 6,056 new listings a year ago.�While the number of home sales remains below average, properties that are priced right are selling and we�re seeing greater balance between buyer demand and the number of homes listed for sales,� said board president Sandra Wyant in a statement.

The total number of properties listed for sale was 16,730, up 8.2% form March and 1.2% compared with a year ago, while the sales-to-active-listings ratio sat at 15.7%.

The MLS home price index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver was $597,300, down 3.9% compared with a year ago and a drop of 1.6% compared to January.

http://business.financialpost.com/20..._lsa=89bd-36b8

LOL. "stabilize home prices" my azz. :-)

**GRG55** · May 04, 2013, 06:36 AM

Re: Vancouver not goin' up!

The gospel of buy

Gregg says he�s been arguing with a real estate agent friend in Vancouver, �who is absolutely convinced that residential real estate is the only sane investment decision that can be made.� This week that �friend� send this poor Gregg, just to mess with his head:

�To buy is to build equity in your future. To rent is a virtual license to pour hard earned money down the drain. To buy is to see gains surpass those in a good stock market portfolio during rockier times on Wall Street. To rent is to enable landlords to own and often prosper.�

Wow. Just imagine if this was a pitch to sell stocks or a corporate bond issue. The promise of guaranteed returns, the absence of risk and the assertion that not investing means losses. A statement like that would have a financial advisor up before a regulatory board, and on his way to delivering pizzas. Not only is it unethical, it�s also false. Gregg needs a new friend.

As you may know, the April numbers are in for Vancouver and Toronto. This is arguably the most important month of the entire year for real estate, especially now. It�s prime time for house sellers and hunters, and coming after months of year/year sales declines � amid a new round of cut-rate mortgages � all eyes have been on the stats to see if this is turning into a soft landing, or a crater.

Sam Wyatt is a no-nonsense realtor working the rich streets of Van�s Westside. What he�s telling clients is far different from Gregg�s deceitful little compadre:

�Months of Inventory (MOI) turned upwards in April, likely signaling the crest for sales volumes this spring. If the MOI follows the pattern of 2012, then we will see it rise again to a new high point late in the year. Last year the MOI figures bounced up to high points not seen since the credit crisis � to over 14 months for detached homes. Attached homes enjoyed the lowest MOI in April at 4.89 months while detached and apartments were both back over 6 months.

�A rising MOI will likely mean that May will be the last really good month this year to sell a home so list the house now.�

Hmm. Seems like we have competing versions of reality here.

For the record, there were 2,627 home sales in Vancouver last month, which is a 6% decline from last year. The total sales for April were the lowest since way back in 2001, and are running 21% below the 10-year average. The real estate board, with a straight face, calls this �balanced.� The realtors are also massively relieved, because they expected worse � something more along the lines of the 18% year/year drubbing that took place in March.

As for prices, they fell about 6% in the last few months of 2012, with the Frankenumber down 4% from a year, and up 1% from January. But, as you know, there are pockets of Richmond where asking prices have been reduced by 50%. Careful what you believe. The bottom line, however, is that the average SFH in Van still costs more than $1 million, and is out of the reach of the vast majority of the population. This puppy is far from being spanked...

**raja** · May 04, 2013, 07:55 AM

Re: Vancouver not goin' up!

There is a time to get in, and a time to get out.

The guy who started posted here 6 years ago, "VancouverGoinUp", told us that Vancouver RE was going up, and he was right for 5 1/2 years. If he got out in time, he would have made a fortune. And so would we, if we had listened to him. Even if he didn't get out in time, he was still right about what he said.

Yet, he was giving the name and avatar Gollum on iTulip, and ridiculed by many.

**jpatter666** · May 04, 2013, 08:29 AM

Re: Vancouver not goin' up!

Originally posted by raja View Post

There is a time to get in, and a time to get out.

The guy who started posted here 6 years ago, "VancouverGoinUp", told us that Vancouver RE was going up, and he was right for 5 1/2 years. If he got out in time, he would have made a fortune. And so would we, if we had listened to him. Even if he didn't get out in time, he was still right about what he said.

Yet, he was giving the name and avatar Gollum on iTulip, and ridiculed by many.

There are several people I've seen on iTulip (most gone) who have seen various waves (housing, stocks, commodities), called it and been driven out. I've noticed a strong misanthropic streak among our little group -- we're sitting here waiting for the crash (but I doubt we'll be very happy with the reality of it).

I think what many of us (including EJ) failed to understand was the extent to which TPTB would go to maintain the status quo. We thought that it would become obvious that the system had failed and that it would be allowed to sink. A new order would arise.

We should learn something from the fact that it hasn't. Yes, the dynamite might be piled even higher now, but as we saw with all the previous bubbles they can go on far longer than anyone imagines. And even if the dynamite goes off -- what then? Could they just start the cycle all over again? The public is conditioned to this now -- it's no longer a shock.

**GRG55** · May 04, 2013, 10:36 AM

Re: Vancouver not goin' up!

Originally posted by jpatter666 View Post

There are several people I've seen on iTulip (most gone) who have seen various waves (housing, stocks, commodities), called it and been driven out. I've noticed a strong misanthropic streak among our little group -- we're sitting here waiting for the crash (but I doubt we'll be very happy with the reality of it).

I think what many of us (including EJ) failed to understand was the extent to which TPTB would go to maintain the status quo. We thought that it would become obvious that the system had failed and that it would be allowed to sink. A new order would arise.

We should learn something from the fact that it hasn't. Yes, the dynamite might be piled even higher now, but as we saw with all the previous bubbles they can go on far longer than anyone imagines. And even if the dynamite goes off -- what then? Could they just start the cycle all over again? The public is conditioned to this now -- it's no longer a shock.

I beg to differ.

Anybody who entered the Vancouver property market 6 years ago spent the first two years going up & down but net nowhere and most of the last four years as an outright speculator in the biggest bubble in Canadian real estate history, riding a wave of cheap money mortgages courtesy of the Bank of Canada and insured by taxpayer sponsored CMHC. About the furthest thing from being an investor short of whore-mongering.

If you want to advocate that speculation in property is a sound approach to personal finance and investment decisions for the majority of a nations citizens so be it. Forgive me if I choose not to join that bandwagon.

All through this nonsense in my home town of Vancouver (and throughout the rest of my country) we have witnessed the same type of corrupt credit market and property tax enhancement policies in play that have created so much economic disruption and destroyed so many lives and families elsewhere. As this thing blows up the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), which insures the overwhelming majority of mortgages in Canada with an explicit taxpayer backing, is going to be on the hook as the defaults rise. Gains for the capital rich levered speculators, losses for the taxpayers for years to come. Sound familiar? Add in the inevitable rise in social support payments that will follow in the wake of the bust just compounds the problem. Hell of a way to run an economy.

Jim Flaherty, the long standing Canadian Finance Minister, has belatedly taken a very few baby steps to reign in the insanity. Unfortunately most of what he has done is to try to reverse some of the very same policies he allowed and promoted earlier in his tenure. The real estate industry is, quite predictably, now trying to lay all the blame for the downturn in sales volume and prices on him. The Toronto Real Estate Board is outright lying about recent month sales statistics. And here's a couple of links showing how industry participants and the media are gaming the gullible public in a desperate effort to keep the game going just a bit longer. These people have no shame...or ethics.

Star 2, truth 0

Fake

No doubt it's been a fun ride. Over the last 5 years, on my trips to visit family in Vancouver and in-laws in Victoria, I have delighted in listening to the stories from taxi drivers explaining how their real estate acumen was making them rich beyond Croesus (but I couldn't help but notice they were still driving a cab). Aspirin isn't going to be enough to dull the pain of the extensive hangover that is about to descend on the Canadian economy as a result.

Owe Canada...

**c1ue** · May 04, 2013, 11:00 AM

Re: Vancouver not goin' up!

Originally posted by jpatter666

There are several people I've seen on iTulip (most gone) who have seen various waves (housing, stocks, commodities), called it and been driven out. I've noticed a strong misanthropic streak among our little group -- we're sitting here waiting for the crash (but I doubt we'll be very happy with the reality of it).

I think what many of us (including EJ) failed to understand was the extent to which TPTB would go to maintain the status quo. We thought that it would become obvious that the system had failed and that it would be allowed to sink. A new order would arise.

We should learn something from the fact that it hasn't. Yes, the dynamite might be piled even higher now, but as we saw with all the previous bubbles they can go on far longer than anyone imagines. And even if the dynamite goes off -- what then? Could they just start the cycle all over again? The public is conditioned to this now -- it's no longer a shock.

This seems to be an "I, for one, welcome our new overlords" comment.

A more specific question: if you listen to the bubble builders as said bubble builds, how do you know when the party ends?

**Milton Kuo** · May 04, 2013, 11:17 AM

Re: Vancouver not goin' up!

Originally posted by jpatter666 View Post

There are several people I've seen on iTulip (most gone) who have seen various waves (housing, stocks, commodities), called it and been driven out. I've noticed a strong misanthropic streak among our little group -- we're sitting here waiting for the crash (but I doubt we'll be very happy with the reality of it).

In the case of VancouverGoingUp, his reasonings for stating why housing in Vancouver ("the best place on Earth") would rise in value echoed the same tripe that real estate agents and others parties with ulterior motives for fueling a bubble spew. If he had said something more along the lines of, "It's a bubble and it's going to be a big one. Let's all speculate, ride this fraud up, and exit in 20XX before this sucker blows", I suspect there would not have been such vitriol against him.

Playing bubbles is highly dangerous and debt-driven bubbles especially so. I for one am glad that people who promote a bubble as a solid investment are called to task on iTulip.

**Munger** · May 04, 2013, 12:23 PM

Re: Vancouver not goin' up!

Originally posted by jpatter666 View Post

I think what many of us (including EJ) failed to understand was the extent to which TPTB would go to maintain the status quo. We thought that it would become obvious that the system had failed and that it would be allowed to sink. A new order would arise.

We also failed to understand that expansionary monetary policy is not inflationary in a liquidity trap. The normal rules don't apply at the zero bound. Sorry boys, Krugman was right; EJ was wrong. No Ka Poom. It seems that EJ has learned his lesson though.

**don** · May 04, 2013, 12:35 PM

Re: Vancouver not goin' up!

Just got new neighbors - renting - who are 'house rich'. Bought a house in North Carolina, which bucked up during the bubble, so he bought a couple more for the kids. Of course he didn't buy anything, just new debt. Now he's too underwater to sell - today's prices are just not right yet - while renting in Florida. Shall I call him a cab?

**verdo** · May 04, 2013, 01:17 PM

Re: Vancouver not goin' up!

Originally posted by Munger View Post

We also failed to understand that expansionary monetary policy is not inflationary in a liquidity trap. The normal rules don't apply at the zero bound. Sorry boys, Krugman was right; EJ was wrong. No Ka Poom. It seems that EJ has learned his lesson though.

Are you being sarcastic? I haven't seen EJ abandon Ka Poom theory at all. Last I checked, he still owned a lot of gold

**raja** · May 04, 2013, 04:00 PM

Re: Vancouver not goin' up!

GRG55 If you want to advocate that speculation in property is a sound approach to personal finance and investment decisions for the majority of a nations citizens so be it. Forgive me if I choose not to join that bandwagon.

Is investing in gold "a sound approach to personal finance and investment"?

Gold is generally considered a good investment by iTulip members . . . .
Yet who does not expect gold to eventually go into a bubble phase, followed by a crash . . . like it did in 1980?
And who will turn down the profits accrued from getting out before the bubble bursts?

**raja** · May 04, 2013, 04:24 PM

Re: Vancouver not goin' up!

Originally posted by Milton Kuo View Post

In the case of VancouverGoingUp, his reasonings for stating why housing in Vancouver ("the best place on Earth") would rise in value echoed the same tripe that real estate agents and others parties with ulterior motives for fueling a bubble spew. If he had said something more along the lines of, "It's a bubble and it's going to be a big one. Let's all speculate, ride this fraud up, and exit in 20XX before this sucker blows", I suspect there would not have been such vitriol against him.

I see your point.
He does sound like a Multi-Level Marketing salesman.

But he was right . . . Vancouver was, indeed, going up.

VancouverGoinUp: Wow folks another phenomenal year in Real Estate in God Blessed Vancouver. Once again Shiller proved how wrong he was on Vancouver Real Estate by his uneducated comments regarding Vancouver being tghe bubbliest City in the World over a half decade ago!!! Anyone who listened to him lost out big time. Those who listened to me over the past years have made a fortune, their families and friends proud. 2011 and going forward is just going to be awesome for Vancouver. With home prices trending above 2 million on the West Side we are poised to see 10 million plus home prices as an average over the next 20 years. I haven't posted for awhile because I wanted to let the housing stats speak for themself. God Bless Vancouver the BestPlaceOnEarth

Maybe he was an enthusiastic true believer, who thought that Vancouver was really "bullet-proof".
Or maybe he was a conman and knew it was going to crash at some point, and he was just churning the bubble to increase his profits.
We don't really know . . . .

**c1ue** · May 04, 2013, 04:35 PM

Re: Vancouver not goin' up!

Originally posted by Munger

We also failed to understand that expansionary monetary policy is not inflationary in a liquidity trap. The normal rules don't apply at the zero bound. Sorry boys, Krugman was right; EJ was wrong. No Ka Poom. It seems that EJ has learned his lesson though.

If there's anything to be learned, it is that EJ did not expect the 'system' to quadruple down after the double down of of Y2K internet and the triple down of the real estate bubble.

And the reasoning being, if I understand it correctly, that the consequences down the road would be horrific.

If this is correct, then the failure isn't that Ka-Poom is wrong. The failure is that Ka-Poom is going to be later, bigger and even less avoidable.

Maybe there have been such discussions in the Select area; certainly nothing I've seen publicly seems to jibe with an acknowledgement that Ka-Poom was completely wrong and we should all go Krug. *shiver*

**jiimbergin** · May 04, 2013, 05:37 PM

Re: Vancouver not goin' up!

Originally posted by c1ue View Post

If there's anything to be learned, it is that EJ did not expect the 'system' to quadruple down after the double down of of Y2K internet and the triple down of the real estate bubble.

And the reasoning being, if I understand it correctly, that the consequences down the road would be horrific.

If this is correct, then the failure isn't that Ka-Poom is wrong. The failure is that Ka-Poom is going to be later, bigger and even less avoidable.

Maybe there have been such discussions in the Select area; certainly nothing I've seen publicly seems to jibe with an acknowledgement that Ka-Poom was completely wrong and we should all go Krug. *shiver*

As far as I can tell, EJ has not said Ka-Poom won't happen and he certainly does not believe Krugman is right.

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