gold getting killed!!!!!!!!!!!

[icm63]

Re: gold getting killed!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes, but physical only.

AGREED

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: gold getting killed!!!!!!!!!!!

Good to see you around again, icm63.

[jpatter666]

Re: gold getting killed!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes, but physical only.

AGREED

Question: would you consider BullionVault "physical"?

Not sure I want more physical directly. Even keeping it a bank safe deposit box adds some level of counterparty issue.

[srivatsan]

Re: gold getting killed!!!!!!!!!!!

Question: would you consider BullionVault "physical"?

Not sure I want more physical directly. Even keeping it a bank safe deposit box adds some level of counterparty issue.

Considering what happened at Cyprus, I am not sure whether any place other than you can access immediately is safe for "physical". I just do not trust banks, not because of recent events but from what my family has seen. It is a necessary "evil" in some ways.

[verdo]

Re: gold getting killed!!!!!!!!!!!

I would never keep my precious metals in a safety deposit box. That's just asking for trouble

[charliebrown]

Re: gold getting killed!!!!!!!!!!!

If you have medium to great worth, like maybe one years salary in gold, i would probably diversify holdings. Some in my posession, some in safety deposit box, some at bv, some in paper like phys or gtu, perth gold certs etc. I think when the shtf rules will be broken about property rights and you just don't know where, who, or when.
Who in cyprus thought their 50K euro account would be raided? It wasn't, but it was close. Will the gold held in trust for phys, or gtu be taken, encumbered etc when Canda has a problem? What if great britian swoops in takes bv london vault? Sure its against the law but who makes the rules.

I recommend to organize your holding using liquidity issues, physical security, jurisdiction etc as the parameters.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: gold getting killed!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...old-crash.html

[B]Fed and Bank of Japan caused gold crash[/B]
Commodity prices have been falling since September, culminating in a rout over the past two weeks. That is a classic warning for the global economy.

The upward trend of the great bull market has been broken. The technical damage is brutal. Bank of America expects a further drop to $1,200. Be patient Photo: Alamy

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

7:22PM BST 17 Apr 2013


It is becoming ever clearer that the roaring boom in global equities since last summer has priced in an economic recovery that does not in fact exist. The International Monetary Fund has had to nurse down its global growth forecasts yet again. We are still stuck in an old-fashioned trade depression, with pervasive over-capacity in manufacturing plant and a record global savings rate of 25pc of GDP.

German car sales fell 17pc in March. That should puncture the last illusions that Germany is about to pull Europe out of a self-inflicted slump.

As you can see from the chart below, the divergence between stock markets and the Deutsche Bank index of raw materials is astonishing to behold, so like the pattern in early 1929.



Steel has fallen 31pc this year. Brent crude is off 17pc since early February, and copper 15pc.

You have to be careful reading too much into commodities, distorted by China. The time-honored cycle is a surge of investment that comes on stream at once with a lag. America's shale drive has turned the world gas market upside down. Copper output in Chile rose 7pc last year. The crash in the Baltic Dry Index for shipping rates is partly a tale of too many ships.

Yet excess supply does not explain the collapse in gold over the past week. Cyprus may have been an incidental trigger. If the EU-IMF Troika is determined to strong-arm the Cypriots into selling most of their pint-sized holding of 14 tonnes, it may do the same to Portugal when the time comes, and then you are talking about the world's 14th biggest holding of 382 tonnes.

Bank of America says the gold crash since Friday has already discounted sales of the entire Cypriot, Portuguese and Greek gold reserves combined. "As we believe additional gold selling in the European periphery is highly unlikely, we find it hard to fully justify the sell-off," it said.

The central banks of China and the emerging powers bought 535 tonnes last year to escape dollars and euros, the biggest wave of state purchases since 1964. Their strategy is to buy the dips, and they are no fools. The head of China's reserve manager "SAFE" used to run a US hedge fund.

They won't try to catch a "falling knife", preferring to wait until the dust settles. The upward trend of the great bull market has been broken. The technical damage is brutal. Bank of America expects a further drop to $1,200. Be patient.

My view is that the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan "caused" the gold crash. The rest is noise. The Fed assault began in February when it published a paper warning that the longer quantitative easing continues, the harder it will be for the bank to extricate itself.

The report was co-written by former Fed governor Frederic Mishkin, often deemed Ben Bernanke's "alter ego". It said the Fed's capital base could be wiped out "several times" once borrowing costs climb. The window will start shutting by 2014, with trouble then compounding at a "dramatic" pace.

This was a shock. It suggested that the Fed has lost its nerve, and will think long and hard before launching a fresh blitz of money if growth falters.

Then came last week's Fed Minutes, with hints of tapering off QE earlier that expected. That was the next shock. What they seemed to be saying is that the US economy is groping it way back to normality, that the era of silly money is over, that the dollar will stand tall again.

If that were the case, gold should fall. But it is not the case. The US economy is growing below the Fed's own "stall speed" indicator. Half a million people fell out of the workforce in March. Retail sales fell in March. So did manufacturing.

The US faces fiscal tightening of 2.5pc of GDP this year, the most since 1946. Ex-labour secretary Robert Reich said the effects have been disguised so far, but a "stealth sequester" is just starting: $51m of grant cuts to Brandeis university; $1m for schools in Syracuse; and so on, the reverse of the stealth stimulus before.

My guess is that the Fed will be forced to row back smartly from its exit talk, but first we must look deflation in the eyes.

As for the Bank of Japan, it had been assumed that the colossal monetary stimulus of Haruhiko Kuroda would revive the yen-carry trade, leaking $1 trillion into world asset markets. But the early evidence is the opposite. Japanese investors brought money home last week.

"Mrs Watanabe" is selling her Kiwi and Aussie bonds to bet on stocks and property at home. And she is selling gold like never before. That too is a shock.

Japan's "Abenomics" may prove a net drag on the world over coming months. It is exporting deflation through trade effects. This already visible in Korea and China, where soaring wages have eroded competitiveness. "Investors may have forgotten that yen weakness was one of the immediate causes of the 1997 Asian currency crisis and Asia’s subsequent economic collapse," said Albert Edwards from Societe Generale.

China's growth rate fell to 7.7pc in the first quarter. It will fall further, though the catch-up boom in the hinterland cities of Chengdu, Chonquing, Changsa and Xi'an may have further to run.

Fitch Ratings says credit has surged from €9 trillion to €23 trillion over the past four years, a rise equal to the entire US banking system. Beijing pumped up loans yet again after its recession scare in the summer, but is gaining less traction. The GDP growth effect of credit has halved. It is the classic sign of an economy sated on debt. China too will have to deleverage.

The world is still in a contained depression. Sliding commodities tell us global money is if anything too tight. "There is a threat of deflation almost everywhere. A lot of central banks will have to follow the Bank of Japan, whatever they say now," said Lars Christensen form Danske Bank

The era of money printing is young yet. Gold will have its day again.

[coolhand]

Re: gold getting killed!!!!!!!!!!!

I love AEP's articles generally speaking, but I think he is missing the forest for the trees in this case. Read his article & then read this article:

http://victorthecleaner.wordpress.co...4/07/snippets/

Tell me which view of the world makes more sense based on everything we're seeing.

If the US dollar was losing reserve status, the futures price of commodities would collapse while the "basis" for physical spot delivery, however it is measured, would explode. There is way more paper than physical & big money knows this. They would rush for the exits. So let's look at "basis" of a few selected commodities: Gold? Very positive (good luck getting 100 oz in Manhattan anywhere under $1700.) Corn? Basis at record levels across much of the nation. Copper? WSJ had article that Trafigura & Glencore are hoarding it & premiums for prompt physical deliveries are at 6-mth HIGHS...

The futures markets were created with an economically-positive reason behind them. They have morphed into dollar-defense derivatives used by TPTB to keep the true amount of money printing hidden. Which works fine, until the price-fixing scheme (since at its core, that's what it is), does what 100% of price fixing schemes in history have done: Create shortages.

Guess what? Peak Cheap oil. Scarce physical gold. Scarce physical copper. Record corn basis for 2nd straight yr...we are seeing early stage hyperinflation...

What we are seeing is not what AEP thinks we are...we are seeing the early days of a USD currency crisis...IMO

[charliebrown]

Re: gold getting killed!!!!!!!!!!!

i know I only have one data point, but I look at apmex, thinking that if things get paniced them being large online retailer would have their shleves emptied.
i just added 5 10oz bars to my shopping cart at a price of 30.00 per oz over sport, then I went to check out then canceled the order. I don't know what point a hold is put on inventory in the check out process. but i can buy 50 oz of gold at apmex at $1410 an oz. There is stuff for sale on e-bay for $1468, I assume that e-bays roughly 9% commission is added to each bar.

claims of physical shortages seem exagerated.

[Southernguy]

Re: gold getting killed!!!!!!!!!!!

i know I only have one data point, but I look at apmex, thinking that if things get paniced them being large online retailer would have their shleves emptied.
i just added 5 10oz bars to my shopping cart at a price of 30.00 per oz over sport, then I went to check out then canceled the order. I don't know what point a hold is put on inventory in the check out process. but i can buy 50 oz of gold at apmex at $1410 an oz. There is stuff for sale on e-bay for $1468, I assume that e-bays roughly 9% commission is added to each bar.

claims of physical shortages seem exagerated.

Good information to contrast with what, for example, PCR said yesterday about physical shortages.
That kind of factual information mistakes seriously impair credibility of the rest of the story.

[verdo]

Re: gold getting killed!!!!!!!!!!!

The premiums are too low atm for me to feel like there is an actual shortage of bullion. Not that I'm complaining though. I want it to stay low. But I dont think I'll be letting go of my USD's quite yet. I think when the stock market finally rolles over, I'll be able to get my full dollars worth on gold and silver. The only painful thing is having to listen to all of the deflationists come out of the woodwork

[DRumsfeld2000]

Re: gold getting killed!!!!!!!!!!!

This was an excellent article. Thanks for posting.

[Forrest]

Re: gold getting killed!!!!!!!!!!!

Our thesis about gold shall be proven right ... one day ... hopefully during my lifespan .... and then we will be vindicated .. at least for a short while until TPTB relieve us of our windfall .... OK now for the "conspiracy" 1) CB own gold and can lease and thereby manage the price of gold down or maintain a reduced price level thereby supporting confidence in fiat currency systems 2) physical buying continues by individuals, China, etc 3) CB lose control of paper markets/price of gold after are dwindling reserves that have been transferred to physical holders; 4) CB and gov call in the gold to reset monetary system - go to step 1.

Some Gold Jewelry is nice...and large linked chains trade well in sections!

[astonas]

Re: gold getting killed!!!!!!!!!!!

I love AEP's articles generally speaking, but I think he is missing the forest for the trees in this case. Read his article & then read this article:

http://victorthecleaner.wordpress.co...4/07/snippets/

Tell me which view of the world makes more sense based on everything we're seeing.

If the US dollar was losing reserve status, the futures price of commodities would collapse while the "basis" for physical spot delivery, however it is measured, would explode. There is way more paper than physical & big money knows this. They would rush for the exits. So let's look at "basis" of a few selected commodities: Gold? Very positive (good luck getting 100 oz in Manhattan anywhere under $1700.) Corn? Basis at record levels across much of the nation. Copper? WSJ had article that Trafigura & Glencore are hoarding it & premiums for prompt physical deliveries are at 6-mth HIGHS...

The futures markets were created with an economically-positive reason behind them. They have morphed into dollar-defense derivatives used by TPTB to keep the true amount of money printing hidden. Which works fine, until the price-fixing scheme (since at its core, that's what it is), does what 100% of price fixing schemes in history have done: Create shortages.

Guess what? Peak Cheap oil. Scarce physical gold. Scarce physical copper. Record corn basis for 2nd straight yr...we are seeing early stage hyperinflation...

What we are seeing is not what AEP thinks we are...we are seeing the early days of a USD currency crisis...IMO

While I am inclined to agree with some of what victorthecleaner is saying about a new currency equilibrium, it is not obvious that a transitional hyperinflation is either a necessary step, or an intermediate stage desirable to any decision-maker.

Is the logic that only hyperinflation provides sufficient impetus to effect a handoff of a dollars-for-oil to Euros-for-oil regime? I'm not convinced that all parties are so obstinate that things have to get to the point of hyperinflation before Euros become acceptable tender.

[BadJuju]

Re: gold getting killed!!!!!!!!!!!

The only reason the Euro has any appeal is that it supposedly maintains an official gold reserve. Facing hyperinflation and the death of the $, what is to stop the USA from using gold as a reserve as they do? Also, a large portion of Euro gold is in the hands of the USA. If they are going to play economic hitmen to destroy the $ as a reserve currency, then the USA should seize their gold and tell them to deal with it or face utter ruin from its military. If they were worried about Germany back in WW1 and WW2, they should be far more terrified of the USA.