Japan Extracts Gas from Methane Dydrate in World First

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Tickets to mars prices

Actually, I think the cost is going the other direction.

The single biggest factor in lift is fuel - and all fuels are directly linked to energy prices.

We all know which direction energy prices are going, right?

There are other data points as well:

A Space Shuttle launch costs 3X as much as a Saturn V launch.

This seems illogical - because much of the lifted weight in a Space Shuttle launch is returned to Earth, not literally thrown away.

However, the cost of launch is so high that it is cheaper to throw away huge sections of the lifting equipment than it is to try and save and reuse it. This is a severe structural issue in driving down costs.

I actually do think asteroid mining is feasible - but never as a profit making operation.

A nice, multi-decadal non profit would work great.

That is why the number of launches should be kept to a minimum. My preferred number is zero. You might look over the links I posted.

[c1ue]

Re: Tickets to mars prices

A skyhook or ladder into orbit would be fantastically dangerous.

Even disregarding the cost and engineering issues (you do realize that the strength needed for such a cable is literally astronomical?), a failure would result in literally thousands of square miles of devastation. A lot of the so-called engineering for skyhooks also make light of the chicken or egg problem: once the skyhook is operational (if) the payback would be enormous. The cost, however, of building a skyhook would bankrupt the entire Earth first.

A Von Neumann style operation is more realistic, but the time factor comes into play. If you have a timetable of thousands of years, it would work great. Of course, in that time scale, planetary crust convection currents would be more likely to represent a better renewable mineral source.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Tickets to mars prices

A skyhook or ladder into orbit would be fantastically dangerous.

That is incorrect. Please read the posted link.

Even disregarding the cost and engineering issues (you do realize that the strength needed for such a cable is literally astronomical?), a failure would result in literally thousands of square miles of devastation. A lot of the so-called engineering for skyhooks also make light of the chicken or egg problem: once the skyhook is operational (if) the payback would be enormous. The cost, however, of building a skyhook would bankrupt the entire Earth first.

You have not bothered to read the links I posted. Try reading them and then we can talk.

[mooncliff]

Re: too soon to call?

I think they know more or less where major methane hydrate fields are off Japan, but I dont know what the current status is. I think the deposits are broad and fairly continuous, not in concentrated patches. Must try to look up more about this.
I dont think they intend to strip mine the ocean floor; I think they intend to drill into it and then gassify the clathrate, or at least that is how it seems from the test drilling.
See these.
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/business/T120214006290.htm
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/business/T130312004547.htm

EROI [(Energy out) / (Primary energy in)] which varied from 25 as the production is started, to 2.5 after 50 years of production [Please dont yell at me for bringing that up ]
http://www.sciforum.net/presentation/960
Also, the natural gas price here is horrendous... like $13 dollars per whatever unit, whereas in the US now about $3?
Of course could turn out to be fairly useless, but it is worth the research.

[Verrocchio]

Re: Lower bound only!

No discussion of methane hydrate extraction would be complete without noting that the release of deep-sea methane deposits is one of the nightmare fears for runaway global warming.

Japan cracks seabed 'ice gas' in dramatic leap for global energy
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard


Environmentalists are deeply alarmed by new focus on ice gas, fearing that it will set off a fresh energy race in the fragile eco-systems of the oceans and may cause landslides on the seabed.

The risk of methane leakage into the atmosphere could be a major snag. The US Geological Survey says the gas has ten times the global warming impact of carbon dioxide.

[mooncliff]

Re: Lower bound only!

Yes, but don't think it is that fragile as long as the temp is low. Mag 9 quakes rip through that area every few hundred years, but so cold it doesn't gasify. Yes not a good greenhouse gas... Lots of fracking and regular drilling releases a lot, and the worst thing is Siberia permafrost melt. There are clathrate s everywhere...

[Jam]

Re: Lower bound only!

There is also the possibility of in situ combustion.

http://www.wmkeck.org/grant-programs...abstracts.html

The team at UC Irvine proposes to advance the science of carbon-free power from fossil fuel by exploiting the natural conditions of the deep oceans. A significant methane storehouse is in the form of methane clathrates in sediment on the continental shelves and in permafrost. There is currently no clear technology for mining and using these deposits safely, but there are opportunities for doing so that take advantage of the high pressures and low temperatures of the deep oceans. For example, deep ocean conditions stabilize unusual phases of potential fuels (e.g., methane clathrates) and permit possible carbon sequestration strategies (e.g., CO2 clathrates). In addition, combustion at high pressures is thermodynamically efficient and produces high-density power. To investigate the novel deep-ocean processes that could contribute to a carbon-free power future, such as in situ high-pressure combustion and the kinetics of formation and dissolution of hydrates, the team proposes to construct a facility that simulates the deep ocean temperature and pressure environment and to observe directly these processes in a controlled laboratory environment. This will be the only facility in the world capable of investigating both high-pressure combustion and clathrate-based sequestration strategies.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: Tickets to mars prices

Gravity is a bear..

This made me laugh out loud at my desk. Obvious not so obvious!


But according to this space.com infographic on PRI lets everyone know "how it can do done"
http://www.space.com/15391-asteroid-...fographic.html

It seems they could even tow the asteroids back to earth. What could possibly go wrong when bringing an asteroid into earths orbit/gravitational pull.

How would they grab it and slow it down to tow it back to earth?

How much would it cost to insure that the asteroid didn't break loose and come hurtling toward earth landing in a major population center?

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: Japan Extracts Gas from Methane Dydrate in World First

The "100 years of nat gas from methane hydrate" capital markets racket begins.

Year 1: JP Morgan, Goldman, et al, bank methane hydrate E&P companies
Year 2: Five dozen "independent consultants" issue reports of 10 trillion recoverable cu ft of NG from methane hydrate
Year 3: WSJ and BusinessWeek headlines read: '100 years of natural gas from methane hydrate. World's energy problems solved.'
Year 4: Stock of methane hydrate E&P companies rise sharply
Year 5: JP Morgan et al exit with fees and profits as NG prices plunge to $2
Year 6; Art Berman works out the methane hydrate production economics on the back of a napkin in 10 minutes: producing NG from methane hydrate costs 5x more than the gas can ever be sold for
Year 7: 99% of methane hydrate E&P companies go out of business
.
.
.
Year 10: Entire episode forgotten. Who's Art Berman? Reload for next capital markets racket.

And it begins courtesy of Stratfor on Methane Hydrates:

Methane Hydrates and the Potential Natural Gas Boom

February 11, 2013 | 1115 GMT
Summary

KAZUHIRO NOGI/AFP/Getty Images
Hydrate methane burning at Japan's Gas Pavilion in 2005
Methane hydrates, which are natural gas molecules trapped in ice, offer a potentially abundant source of natural gas widely distributed across the globe. Assuming the extraction technology can be mastered, methane hydrates could offer traditionally resource-poor countries greater energy security.
Analysis
The so-called shale gas revolution has changed the face of the energy industry in the United States. Natural gas production in the United States is at an all-time high. Proposals for, and the actual construction of, liquefied natural gas export terminals in the United States have replaced plans for liquefied natural gas import terminals. But shale gas deposits as a proportion of global natural gas supplies may seem minor in comparison to methane hydrates.
Methane hydrates form at a specific range of low temperatures and high pressures. They occur in the Artic permafrost and along continental slopes, typically at water depths greater than 500 meters (1,640 feet). Once considered only a hindrance to conventional extraction, emerging technologies to tap methane hydrates mean they now have the potential to alter the global energy outlook. Estimates for total methane hydrate gas in place are rough, but range anywhere from 3,000 trillion cubic meters to more than 140,000 trillion cubic meters, the large range illustrating the uncertainty of the estimate. By comparison, combined global technically recoverable conventional natural and shale gas reserves total roughly 640 trillion cubic meters. (In 2011, global natural gas consumption stood at approximately 3.4 trillion cubic meters.)
Despite the promise of methane hydrates, the technology for their extraction is still under development, and potential risks have not been neutralized. These include the uncontrolled release of natural gas formerly trapped in ice, which could result in large amounts of the greenhouse gas methane entering the atmosphere. They also include the possibility of destabilizing the ocean floor, leading to underwater landslides and subsequently the possible sinking of drilling rigs.
Drilling likely will be required to access the natural gas in the hydrates. A number of drilling techniques could be used to destabilize the equilibrium of the hydrates and release natural gas. These include thermal injections, which involve increasing temperatures, often by injecting steam, to dissociate the gas. They also include depressurization, or reducing the pressure of the formation to release the gas. Finally, and perhaps most promising, is carbon dioxide injection. In this process, carbon dioxide essentially replaces the natural gas within the hydrate, allowing for the release of natural gas and the capture of carbon dioxide.
Research programs focused on methane hydrate detection and extraction can be found in numerous nations, including Japan, South Korea, India, China, Norway, the United Kingdom, Germany, the United States, Canada, Russia, New Zealand, Brazil and Chile. Much of the initial research has been highly collaborative, with the government and private companies from the United States playing a prominent role.
Most of these research programs are in the exploratory, experimental and laboratory phases, with expeditions seeking samples to determine the extent of deposits so as to direct further research. Last year, however, Japan completed a successful field test in Alaska in collaboration with Norway and ConocoPhillips, successfully producing natural gas through controlled dissociation via carbon dioxide injections. In recent weeks, Japan has also begun offshore production tests in the Nankai Trough off the coast of central Honshu.
Despite these recent advances, commercial production is still unlikely for at least 10 to 15 years. Japan believes that commercial production will be possible by 2018, while the U.S. Geological Survey estimates that countries with the "political will" to pursue methane hydrates could see production by around 2025. Though expensive compared to conventional methods of recovering natural gas, the estimated cost of methane hydrate extraction is similar to other unconventional sources, such as shale gas. The International Energy Agency estimates that once developed, it will cost between $4.70-$8.60 to extract 1 million British thermal units of methane hydrates. The same studies estimate conventional costs as low as $0.50 per 1 million British thermal units. Developmental and capital costs are likely to be high, since the deposits are in difficult, harsh locations (e.g., Artic or deepwater environments) and depending on their location, new fields could also mean additional capital costs from infrastructure development.
Methane hydrates are widely distributed throughout the globe, including locations that do not have substantial conventional natural gas reserves. Deposits have been discovered off the coasts of Japan, India, South Korea and Chile, in the Gulf of Mexico and off the southeastern coast of the United States. Potential reserves also exist in the Artic permafrost of Alaska, Canada and Russia. Their widespread distribution means traditionally resource-poor countries could now have access to domestic sources of energy.

Methane hydrate estimates throughout Asia are still being determined through further exploration, but initial median estimates place Japan's reserves at 6 trillion cubic meters, China's at 5 trillion cubic meters and India's at 26 trillion cubic meters. Japan was the first nation to establish a methane hydrate program, which it founded in 1995. India formed its national program in 1997, and China and South Korea followed suit later. Since 2006, China, India and South Korea have all led exploratory expeditions that included conducting seismic studies and retrieving core samples to determine the composition of possible reserves.
Japan continues to lead the field, as shown by its recent offshore production testing. Though technically advanced, Japan lacks many natural resources and so must import the majority of its energy supply. In 2011, it consumed 123 billion cubic meters of natural gas, of which 117 billion cubic meters were imported. Developing a domestic source of energy could restore some of the energy security lost when Japan ceased the majority of its nuclear power production. Japan's imperative to secure energy supplies combined with its technical capabilities may allow it to push forward despite the high economic cost.
While initial offshore exploration has occurred near the coast, often within a given country's exclusive economic zone, future exploration will likely continue offshore. This exploration could happen in contentious waters, especially in East Asia. As technology continues to advance, a new dimension to pre-existing territorial frictions could emerge as nations switch from competing for potential resources to actual resources. Exploration for this resource is a tool competing nations could use to claim sovereignty over disputed waters. Whether or not the technical hurdles of extracting methane hydrates are overcome, short- and medium-term exploration efforts could help countries in their attempts to establish a presence in international or disputed waters. Japan's lead in the development of methane hydrate extraction could give it an edge in the competition for future resources in the region.