Japan Extracts Gas from Methane Dydrate in World First

[GRG55]

Re: Tickets to mars prices

NASA and other people certainly could figure that out. They may not be honest with the public, but there are people who know how to figure that out. It's not rocket science. Oops!

Really?

Your faith in man's ability to accurately account for large uncertainties is touching.

One thing I have learned from risking my own money on various earthly resource extraction ventures is that no matter how big a contingency is made for uncontrollable outcomes...it's never enough...

I am not a big fan of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, but his views about the hubris imbedded in financial risk models, and a whole variety of other "precisely calculated" probabilities and outcomes bears consideration.

[EJ]

Re: Tickets to mars prices

Really?

Your faith in man's ability to accurately account for large uncertainties is touching.

One thing I have learned from risking my own money on various earthly resource extraction ventures is that no matter how big a contingency is made for uncontrollable outcomes...it's never enough...

I am not a big fan of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, but his views about the hubris imbedded in financial risk models, and a whole variety of other "precisely calculated" probabilities and outcomes bears consideration.

I've been watching Planetary Resources (PRI) – The Asteroid Mining Company with interest.

All of the breathless news stories that cover the company and its technology focus on how the company will use specialized technology to locate and extract minerals, including precious metals like platinum, from asteroids.

Stories in The New York Times, and on NPR, CBS, among many lend heavy credibility to the project.

But good luck finding a single explanation of how they plan to get the precious payload back to earth.

The current per-pound cost of returning material back to earth from space in one piece is ~$20,000. If the payload is pure refined platinum then the gross profit on a pound of platinum counting only the return cost is ~$5,000 per pound at current prices. This ignores the even larger cost of getting the gear into space in the first place to return the payload.

Gravity is a bear.

This also assumes that PRI is not only mining platinum ore from asteroids but refining it on them as well. Not sure where they will get the energy to do that.

PRI has managed to rope in Big Names like James Cameron. The success of a scientific space mining project is guaranteed with a guy like Cameron onboard, isn't it? He made a movie about a callous militaristic interplanetary mining company run by former U.S. Marines that exploits the pristine beauty of planet where gravity takes a breather when it comes to large chunks of dirt, fierce animated monsters attack unless directed to do otherwise, electric plants float around, and giant blue animated humanoid creatures lord over the whole shebang. How can a mining project go wrong with this kind of highly relevant expertise on board?

Then we have other mining experts, like David Vaskevitch, Former CTO, Microsoft, and Eric E. Schmidt, Ph.D, Larry Page, and Ross Perot, Jr. who ponied up.

The Big Press and Big Names virtually guarantees that the scam spins out of control for years on end, sucking in ever more money such as from this Russian firm that seeks the legitimacy that might rub off on it from making an investment side-by-side with Vaskevitch and Schmidt, not to mention Mr. Avatar himself. The ill-fated project will grow ever larger as Big Names endeavor to forestall the inevitable, the revelation that they simply failed to see an obvious problem with the business model: you can mine ore in space, maybe, but you can't get it back to earth and make a profit.

It will not surprise me if PRI turns out to be a scam of epic proportions. It has all of the key ingredients: Grandiose Idea, Big Names, Big Press, Big Money.

If only there were a way to short it.

[Polish_Silver]

Lower bound only!

One thing I have learned from risking my own money on various earthly resource extraction ventures is that no matter how big a contingency is made for uncontrollable outcomes...it's never enough...

Agree with that. But all I am asking for is a lower bound on the cost. Assuming no complications, there must be some way to estimate the minimum cost. And if the methane is economic at that cost, then there comes the more complex question of realistic costs.

I am sure there is some guy at Shell who spent a few extra hours thinking through a hydrate extraction scheme. If Shell thought it was economic, they would already be using it, as EJ said.

[Polish_Silver]

Re: Tickets to mars prices

I've been watching Planetary Resources (PRI) – The Asteroid Mining Company with interest.

. . .

If only there were a way to short it.

Asteroids are mostly nickel and Iron, I thought. Perhaps they can find the platinum ones. But the re-entry costs are based on bringing humans and delicate payloads back, aren't they?

If your just bringing back a lump of ore, I'll bet the cost goes way down.

[vt]

Re: Tickets to mars prices

The real business plan is to nudge the asteroid's so that it slams into the earth, then hope the planet survives the collision. Maybe the impact will break up the material so that it's easy to process. Talk about climate change being a problem; screwing around with nature's pinball machine is dangerous stuff.

[SlopeOak]

Re: Tickets to mars prices

But good luck finding a single explanation of how they plan to get the precious payload back to earth.

At least part of the plan seems to be collecting water to use as propellant for other missions. Perhaps they intend to sell it to 3rd parties who already have ambitions in space:

http://www.planetaryresources.com/20...resources-inc/

A similar plan was conceived by an actual, established aerospace firm, and even they have had trouble finding customers:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_I...ture_Servicing

And, of course, the satellites in need of refueling are not running on water!

So, to succeed, PRI need buyers for water that is already in space, or they need to drastically reduce the cost of returning mined materials to Earth.

I really do hope that they succeed, but I'll leave it up to the billionaires to do the investing

[Polish_Silver]

Re: too soon to call?

You can't be serious. Mars has been known about for quite a while too. Does anybody have a number for what it will really cost to put a man (or woman) on Mars?

This article estimates that the mission will cost $20 billion to $450 billion.
I appreciate their honesty in giving a wide range like that.

[GRG55]

Re: too soon to call?

This article estimates that the mission will cost $20 billion to $450 billion.
I appreciate their honesty in giving a wide range like that.

LOL. That probably qualifies as an estimate with a large uncertainty...

[Polish_Silver]

Re: too soon to call?

LOL. That probably qualifies as an estimate with a large uncertainty...

It would be interesting to study actual costs, vs predicted costs, for things like the space shuttle, apollo program, big dig, concorde, etc.

Not having specialized knowlege in either area, I would think the methane extraction has more uncertainty than going to mars. It's approximately a year long trip, one way. And the planet is only proximal to earth about once/year. So once there, you are stuck for a year or so.

[ST]

Re: Tickets to mars prices

I've been watching Planetary Resources (PRI) – The Asteroid Mining Company...

I've spoken with a couple of journalists in the past regarding PRI, owing to my background in both industries. Nice guys, and generally agree with the absurdity, though I suppose reality, at least in print, doesn't sell. What's really comical is when you show these guys how elusive free cash flow has been for the precious metals major miners on earth, which ultimately leads to the question... "what planet are these PRI guys from?"

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Tickets to mars prices

I've been watching Planetary Resources (PRI) – The Asteroid Mining Company with interest.

All of the breathless news stories that cover the company and its technology focus on how the company will use specialized technology to locate and extract minerals, including precious metals like platinum, from asteroids.

Stories in The New York Times, and on NPR, CBS, among many lend heavy credibility to the project.

But good luck finding a single explanation of how they plan to get the precious payload back to earth.

The current per-pound cost of returning material back to earth from space in one piece is ~$20,000. If the payload is pure refined platinum then the gross profit on a pound of platinum counting only the return cost is ~$5,000 per pound at current prices. This ignores the even larger cost of getting the gear into space in the first place to return the payload.

Gravity is a bear.

This also assumes that PRI is not only mining platinum ore from asteroids but refining it on them as well. Not sure where they will get the energy to do that.

PRI has managed to rope in Big Names like James Cameron. The success of a scientific space mining project is guaranteed with a guy like Cameron onboard, isn't it? He made a movie about a callous militaristic interplanetary mining company run by former U.S. Marines that exploits the pristine beauty of planet where gravity takes a breather when it comes to large chunks of dirt, fierce animated monsters attack unless directed to do otherwise, electric plants float around, and giant blue animated humanoid creatures lord over the whole shebang. How can a mining project go wrong with this kind of highly relevant expertise on board?

Then we have other mining experts, like David Vaskevitch, Former CTO, Microsoft, and Eric E. Schmidt, Ph.D, Larry Page, and Ross Perot, Jr. who ponied up.

The Big Press and Big Names virtually guarantees that the scam spins out of control for years on end, sucking in ever more money such as from this Russian firm that seeks the legitimacy that might rub off on it from making an investment side-by-side with Vaskevitch and Schmidt, not to mention Mr. Avatar himself. The ill-fated project will grow ever larger as Big Names endeavor to forestall the inevitable, the revelation that they simply failed to see an obvious problem with the business model: you can mine ore in space, maybe, but you can't get it back to earth and make a profit.

It will not surprise me if PRI turns out to be a scam of epic proportions. It has all of the key ingredients: Grandiose Idea, Big Names, Big Press, Big Money.

If only there were a way to short it.

I happen to agree wholeheartedly with every word you say. However I believe it might be possible to reduce the cost of space transport by a factor of ten or more. Mr. Cameron will not have the insight or capital to do this, but it might be doable by somebody eventually. It would be amusing if this transparently crooked gathering of billionaires stumbled upon the right combination of ideas and expertise to pull this together. I posted Dr. Birch's work here before. I see that he has now passed away. Fortunately I have made a backup of his web site before his domain lapsed.
http://buildengineer.com/www.paulbir...talRings-I.pdf
http://buildengineer.com/www.paulbir...alRings-II.pdf
http://buildengineer.com/www.paulbir...lRings-III.pdf
I'm keeping the eternal flame lit for the orbital ring. Some day when I am a zillionaire, I will suck hundreds of investors into my scheme to build a grandiose world spanning ring in outer space. Here is hoping that the sheep have not been scared off by the last attempt ;-)

[metalman]

Re: Tickets to mars prices

I happen to agree wholeheartedly with every word you say. However I believe it might be possible to reduce the cost of space transport by a factor of ten or more. Mr. Cameron will not have the insight or capital to do this, but it might be doable by somebody eventually. It would be amusing if this transparently crooked gathering of billionaires stumbled upon the right combination of ideas and expertise to pull this together. I posted Dr. Birch's work here before. I see that he has now passed away. Fortunately I have made a backup of his web site before his domain lapsed.
http://buildengineer.com/www.paulbir...talRings-I.pdf
http://buildengineer.com/www.paulbir...alRings-II.pdf
http://buildengineer.com/www.paulbir...lRings-III.pdf
I'm keeping the eternal flame lit for the orbital ring. Some day when I am a zillionaire, I will suck hundreds of investors into my scheme to build a grandiose world spanning ring in outer space. Here is hoping that the sheep have not been scared off by the last attempt ;-)

[cobben]

Re: Tickets to mars prices

I happen to agree wholeheartedly with every word you say. However I believe it might be possible to reduce the cost of space transport by a factor of ten or more. Mr. Cameron will not have the insight or capital to do this, but it might be doable by somebody eventually. It would be amusing if this transparently crooked gathering of billionaires stumbled upon the right combination of ideas and expertise to pull this together.

Just wait a few years, more exactly until 2378.


Oxygen and Aromasia
“pictures from the year 2378”
Chapter 12: New Joint Stock Companies
Part 2: Mars and the Moon


“But it’s also said,” one of the guests uttered, “that attempts to get in touch with the inhabitants of Mars has been declared impossible.”

“That’s balderdash,” someone else declared. “If we make a concerted effort to use circular ether-circuits, we’ll most likely succeed.”

“Undoubtedly!” many agreed.

“We already know the bodily constitution of the Martians. Now the object is to find out their inner faculties, something that has to be of enormous benefit to the inhabitants of Earth.”

“I’ve put up a proposal for a joint-stock company that takes care of that,” the bank director explained. “Ladies and gentlemen, you may want to put down your names for such a company. The name of the company will be Circular Ether-Circuits, Ltd., and it will be devoted to discovering the Martians’ state of mind.

“I can tell you that I already have collected almost the whole sum, a thousand million francs, so the list is almost fully subscribed. But I always want to do my best to serve my friends and get secure papers for you.”

Within a few moments all the shares of the Circular Ether-Circuits, Ltd were subscribed. It was no longer possible to get even a small lot of the stock. The next day the share was quoted at well above par, but only nominally, for nobody wanted to sell.

Director Giro was indefatigable when it came to entertaining his guests. From the basement, he hoisted them up to the roof of the palace, where they enjoyed the freshness of the sea and the beautiful moonlight of the mild August evening. The host asked his guests to have a look into the big looking-glasses that had been installed on the roof and furnished an opportunity to penetrate the inner conditions of the Moon.

“Ladies and gentlemen,” the bank director said, “let me call your attention to the Moon.”

“This is a host who knows how to entertain,” said one of the guests, and the others concurred.

“How high are the stocks of the Moon Gold Mining Company at present?” someone asked.

“Very good,” director Giro explained. “There have been some problems with the transportation of gold to Earthm and they have not yet been overcome. But since the art of swimming in the air has been making great progress every day and is pushing aside the air-cycles and the old airships, there is hope of building some very big swimming-machines for the transportation of gold. It could happen any day now, and those who want to benefit from this splendid enterprise should not be long in subscribing.”

It did not take more than a quarter of an hour and then all the stocks in the Moon Gold Mining Company were sold. Even the stocks of the old silver factory on the moon rose to heights that had not been experienced in the past centuries.

One of the satirical magazines of Gothenburg, The Heavenly Hornet, had just recently expressed its surprise at the remarkable fact that silver stocks had been falling amazingly fast in spite of the low gravity on the lunar surface. But that joke, like many similar ones, had now lost its touch and could no longer be used, at least not until it had been reshaped and supplied with a new edge.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Tickets to mars prices

You where so much funnier when you posted animated GIFs of dogs.
Look here is a cool dog GIF ( in case you forgot how):

[c1ue]

Re: Tickets to mars prices

I happen to agree wholeheartedly with every word you say. However I believe it might be possible to reduce the cost of space transport by a factor of ten or more.

Actually, I think the cost is going the other direction.

The single biggest factor in lift is fuel - and all fuels are directly linked to energy prices.

We all know which direction energy prices are going, right?

There are other data points as well:

A Space Shuttle launch costs 3X as much as a Saturn V launch.

This seems illogical - because much of the lifted weight in a Space Shuttle launch is returned to Earth, not literally thrown away.

However, the cost of launch is so high that it is cheaper to throw away huge sections of the lifting equipment than it is to try and save and reuse it. This is a severe structural issue in driving down costs.

I actually do think asteroid mining is feasible - but never as a profit making operation.

A nice, multi-decadal non profit would work great.