Singapore Population Push

[touchring]

Re: Singapore Population Push

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/

Pretty impressive for a place with the population of Denmark.

I guess a labor shortage like that brings it's own set of problems, though. So it makes sense that they would look to draw in more immigrants.

The labor shortage is due to a couple of reasons.

1. Singapore is one of the very few countries in the world that has no minimum wages. Wages start from US$500-600 per month for odd job laborers and factory production workers (in comparison, production workers in China earn $400-$500 per month, an oxymoron since Singapore has a GDP per capita that is ten times of China).

2. Employers in Singapore are not required by law to purchase health insurance for citizen employees.

3. There are no unemployment benefits or pension provided by either the government or employers, so you either work or panhandle.

4. Singapore has the cheapest loans in the world due to massive liquidity, the mortgage rate starts at 1.3%. In a city state of only 5 million people, banks have lent out half a trillion dollars, courtesy of Ben Bernanke.

5. Singapore is the financial center for South East Asia and to some extent the entire Asia. And in recent times, many hedge funds fleeing regulation in the US and London has fled to Singapore.

6. Half the adult population are foreigners on employment permit - so you got to be employed in the first place before you can stay in Singapore, except if you qualify for the one of the investor scheme where you can stay in Singapore if you spend a couple millions on real estate or some company, where you can stay even if you are jobless, a good example is Jim Rogers.

7. Singapore is a tax haven.

Some of these factors also apply to Hong Kong to some extent.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Singapore Population Push

There are no...pensionx provided by either the government or employers, so you either work or panhandle.

What about the CFP?

[touchring]

Re: Singapore Population Push

What about the CFP?

The majority of people use their CPF to pay for part of their mortgages and it's all locked up unless you sell your home, which is what some retirees do, but they face the problem of having to pay rent after that. Some retirees solve the problem by moving in with their children.

[Jay]

Re: Singapore Population Push

I believe I may know where you're coming from. You're using the example of the USA, except that Singapore and the US has got different political system and culture since the beginning.

Taking China for example, China has 1.4 billion people, but how many home grown great companies and products has China made in the past 200 years? In comparison, South Korea has only got 60 million people, and while the Koreans have not made revolutionary inventions such as the airplane or refrigerators, they have certainly made good phones and consumer products, and Korean TV and cultural export is very popular in Asia, which you would probably know since you lived here once.

The other point is that not all people are equal. One Steve Jobs or one Larry Page or one Warren Buffett is worth more than all the 2 million foreign expats in Singapore combined. But will Steve Jobs or Larry Page want to come to Singapore? Even if Steve Jobs were born in Singapore, he'll be in and out of jail.

My friend once had an Indonesian maid (you may have one yourself when you were in Singapore), who told her that Indonesia is different from Singapore because Indonesia is a democracy. I wouldn't have even imagine a housekeeping saying something like that!

The Singapore model doesn't even appeal to an Indonesian maid, let alone Steve Jobs.

Of course, one may argue that Singapore is safe place as compared to a democracy such as the USA. But there are other places than the US with a similar political system, such as Japan, Canada, Australia, Sweden, Taiwan, South Korea, countless other examples, where it is safe. As a matter of fact, pro-government supporters like to use the example of the US, "where women can be raped while walking in the streets, murders happen every minute", to show the result of democracy.

What would the standard of living look like if throughout history humankind for some reason hovered around a population of 100k people?

We would likely still be running around with spears.

My point is that your scope is too narrow and time frame too short. In the short run, some populations add more to the human body of knowledge than others, some do "better" than others too. But in the long run, despite the occasionally burnt Alexandrian library, knowledge increases. That is a function ultimately of the number of minds on the planet. And knowledge is the ultimate factor in standard of living gains.

And those knowledge gains don't even take into account the efficiency gains from living in close quarters and from large market size. Both also come into play as population increases.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: Singapore Population Push

What would the standard of living look like if throughout history humankind for some reason hovered around a population of 100k people?

We would likely still be running around with spears.

My point is that your scope is too narrow and time frame too short. In the short run, some populations add more to the human body of knowledge than others, some do "better" than others too. But in the long run, despite the occasionally burnt Alexandrian library, knowledge increases. That is a function ultimately of the number of minds on the planet. And knowledge is the ultimate factor in standard of living gains.

And those knowledge gains don't even take into account the efficiency gains from living in close quarters and from large market size. Both also come into play as population increases.

On the back of these statements, the more interesting and fascinating question to me is why did some regions of the world not experience growth of ideas while others flourished?

Please don't bring up Jared Diamond..... and his book.

[Jay]

Re: Singapore Population Push

On the back of these statements, the more interesting and fascinating question to me is why did some regions of the world not experience growth of ideas while others flourished?

Please don't bring up Jared Diamond..... and his book.

Diamond, hah!

What I find interesting, is now that available human knowledge has a permanent repository on the internet, and becomes more available every day to a growing population, what will the near future look like?

That's exciting.

(And threatening to existing economic moats, which explains a lot...)

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: Singapore Population Push

Diamond, hah!

What I find interesting, is now that available human knowledge has a permanent repository on the internet, and becomes more available every day to a growing population, what will the near future look like?

That's exciting.

(And threatening to existing economic moats, which explains a lot...)

Unfortunately the bulk of society could care less that an answer to most of the questions they have can be found on the internet (well you have disinformation etc but still).

The reality is most people care more about Kim Kardashian, drinking, hunting or a sports team (did not mean to offend anyone who likes any of those) to care about who Da Vinci was or who was David Ricardo or really who invented the light bulb or AC current (Tesla).

The fact is no one cares and they will let you know it.

[Jay]

Re: Singapore Population Push

Unfortunately the bulk of society could care less that an answer to most of the questions they have can be found on the internet (well you have disinformation etc but still).

The reality is most people care more about Kim Kardashian, drinking, hunting or a sports team (did not mean to offend anyone who likes any of those) to care about who Da Vinci was or who was David Ricardo or really who invented the light bulb or AC current (Tesla).

The fact is no one cares and they will let you know it.

Yes not every human is Einstein.

But there are more Einsteins in a billion people than 1000.

AND, you don't even need an Einstein to increase standards of living. Average people make differences all the time too. How about the guy who works on an assembly line for 20 years and then finds a simple way to save 2% off the production time with a simple tweak.

Those people exist in every aspect of life too. That 2% adds up real fast when the numbers of people involved are large and especially when you can share information in the internet.

[touchring]

Re: Singapore Population Push

Yes not every human is Einstein.

But there are more Einsteins in a billion people than 1000.

AND, you don't even need an Einstein to increase standards of living. Average people make differences all the time too. How about the guy who works on an assembly line for 20 years and then finds a simple way to save 2% off the production time with a simple tweak.

Those people exist in every aspect of life too. That 2% adds up real fast when the numbers of people involved are large and especially when you can share information in the internet.

The system and culture also matters.

Taking the example of India, China and the Middle East (Steve job is half Arab isn't he?). I'm sure there are many times more Einsteins caliber people in India, China and the Middle than Europe, but if Europe had been on a separate planet, the people of India, China, the Middle East will still be riding horses, sailing ships, and using candle and oil lamps until the year 2013.

Even the communism in China is a European ideology.

[Jay]

Re: Singapore Population Push

The system and culture also matters.

Taking the example of India, China and the Middle East (Steve job is half Arab isn't he?). I'm sure there are many times more Einsteins caliber people in India, China and the Middle than Europe, but if Europe had been on a separate planet, the people of India, China, the Middle East will still be riding horses, sailing ships, and using candle and oil lamps until the year 2013.

Even the communism in China is a European ideology.

Of course the system matters, but only in the extent that it controls the speed at which these benefits occur, not whether the benefit exists. More people increase standards of living over time. Even if humanity developed solely in slavery (which much of it did!), with a small bunch of overloards, someone would have figured out that the plow is a good thing after a while.

[Jay]

Re: Singapore Population Push

Of course the system matters, but only in the extent that it controls the speed at which these benefits occur, not whether the benefit exists. More people increase standards of living over time. Even if humanity developed solely in slavery (which much of it did!), with a small bunch of overloards, someone would have figured out that the plow is a good thing after a while.

The Soviet Union, even with an inefficient industrial communist economy, created knowledge in its time. Do you think all the military advances that occurred during the Cold War came from the US?

[touchring]

Re: Singapore Population Push

Of course the system matters, but only in the extent that it controls the speed at which these benefits occur, not whether the benefit exists. More people increase standards of living over time. Even if humanity developed solely in slavery (which much of it did!), with a small bunch of overloards, someone would have figured out that the plow is a good thing after a while.

The Scandinavian countries did well even though they had small populations.

Incidentally, Finland has almost the same population size as Singapore, even though Finland is 476 times larger.

At the current rate in which Singapore population is growing, in 20 years, Singapore will have a population that is 50% larger than Finland that has a land area 476 times larger.


Republic of Finland

• Suomen tasavalta (Finnish)
• Republiken Finland (Swedish)

-	Total	338,424 km2 (64th) 130,596 sq mi
-	Water (%)	10
-	2012 estimate	5,421,827[2] (112th)
-	2000 census	5,180,000
-	Density	16/km2 (201st) 41/sq mi
GDP (PPP)		2011 estimate
-	Total	$195.723 billion[3]
-	Per capita	$36,236[3]
GDP (nominal)		2011 estimate
-	Total	$266.553 billion[3]
-	Per capita	$49,349[3]
Gini (2000)		26.9 (low)
HDI (2011)		0.882[4] (very high /22nd)

Republic of Singapore

-	Total	710 km2 (189th) 274 sq mi
-	Water (%)	1.444
-	2012 census	5,312,400[4]
-	Density	7,315[5]/km2 (3rd) 18,943/sq mi
GDP (PPP)		2012 estimate
-	Total	$327.557 billion[6]
-	Per capita	$61,046[6]
GDP (nominal)		2012 estimate
-	Total	$270.020 billion[6]
-	Per capita	$50,323[6]

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: Singapore Population Push

The system and culture also matters.

Taking the example of India, China and the Middle East (Steve job is half Arab isn't he?). I'm sure there are many times more Einsteins caliber people in India, China and the Middle than Europe, but if Europe had been on a separate planet, the people of India, China, the Middle East will still be riding horses, sailing ships, and using candle and oil lamps until the year 2013.

Even the communism in China is a European ideology.

Yea Jobs is half syrian. But I think a lot of those inventions would have come about without Europeans. The interesting part is that sub-saharan Africa had close proximity to the Arab world and Romans yet when the Europeans arrived en mass most of sub-saharan Africa was virtually still in the bronze age. I asked my geography/history professor with why that occurred and the only explanation he had was due to the Sahara desert (what a odd thing to state, Sahara desert, its virtually saying Desert desert because I believe Sahara simply means desert in Arabic) cutting off the flow of ideas to that region.

The Europeans were able to take inventions by the Chinese, Arabs, Indians and expand them. Typewriter (could you imagine writing everything by hand! those Monks were masters), the concept of Zero (how could the Europeans create advanced mathematics without Zero and negative numbers!) Arabic Numerals (could you imagine still doing math with roman numerals?).

Oh yea and I can't forget Chess, one of my favorite societies in all of history invented the more modern form of Chess today, Persians. They also invented Halloween as there is an ancient custom in Persia where on one night of the year they would go house to house and bang spoons against pots to receive food/sweets. The root word Rukh is Farsi for Chariot which became the Rook in Chess.

The European combination of risk taking, intellect and political philosophy was and still is unique in the world. This translated to America well.

The Chinese were far advanced over the Europeans in 0 AD and well up into the 1400's but perhaps not in warfare as the Europeans were good at killing each other.

IMO one major Chinese disturbance was responsible for China closing up its borders and looking inward in the mid 700's. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Lushan_Rebellion

That was the An Lushan Rebellion. Apparently Lushan was a "foreigner" who gained control of the armies to the north to defend agaisnt the barbarians in the north but he eventually turned on the emperor and over a stretch of 3 Tang Dynasty emperors caused what is known as the Chinese An-Shi disturbances.

From that point on China virtually closed up and did not seek to venture outside of its borders. Who knows how the world would have looked with the largest economy and military in the world actually going out for trade and to conquer like the Europeans?

[Jay]

Re: Singapore Population Push

The Scandinavian countries did well even though they had small populations.

They would have done better with bigger ones.

[touchring]

Re: Singapore Population Push

Yea Jobs is half syrian. But I think a lot of those inventions would have come about without Europeans. The interesting part is that sub-saharan Africa had close proximity to the Arab world and Romans yet when the Europeans arrived en mass most of sub-saharan Africa was virtually still in the bronze age. I asked my geography/history professor with why that occurred and the only explanation he had was due to the Sahara desert (what a odd thing to state, Sahara desert, its virtually saying Desert desert because I believe Sahara simply means desert in Arabic) cutting off the flow of ideas to that region.

The Europeans were able to take inventions by the Chinese, Arabs, Indians and expand them. Typewriter (could you imagine writing everything by hand! those Monks were masters), the concept of Zero (how could the Europeans create advanced mathematics without Zero and negative numbers!) Arabic Numerals (could you imagine still doing math with roman numerals?).

Oh yea and I can't forget Chess, one of my favorite societies in all of history invented the more modern form of Chess today, Persians. They also invented Halloween as there is an ancient custom in Persia where on one night of the year they would go house to house and bang spoons against pots to receive food/sweets. The root word Rukh is Farsi for Chariot which became the Rook in Chess.

The European combination of risk taking, intellect and political philosophy was and still is unique in the world. This translated to America well.

The Chinese were far advanced over the Europeans in 0 AD and well up into the 1400's but perhaps not in warfare as the Europeans were good at killing each other.

IMO one major Chinese disturbance was responsible for China closing up its borders and looking inward in the mid 700's. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Lushan_Rebellion

That was the An Lushan Rebellion. Apparently Lushan was a "foreigner" who gained control of the armies to the north to defend agaisnt the barbarians in the north but he eventually turned on the emperor and over a stretch of 3 Tang Dynasty emperors caused what is known as the Chinese An-Shi disturbances.

From that point on China virtually closed up and did not seek to venture outside of its borders. Who knows how the world would have looked with the largest economy and military in the world actually going out for trade and to conquer like the Europeans?

Another reason why China closed up is the same reason why North Korea is closed up today. An autocracy is usually worried about foreigners and new ideas (and also religion) and rightly so.

Throughout the centuries, Christians in China, Korea and Japan had been prosecuted and killed because the religion advocates that man is equal before god which can never happen in a traditional Asian society. The Chinese and Japanese emperor is suppose to be divine (and something like a demi-god).