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More stupid model tricks: faith in drug testing on mice yields billions of dollars wasted and many more lives lost

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  • More stupid model tricks: faith in drug testing on mice yields billions of dollars wasted and many more lives lost

    Yet another shining example of why a proxy, or a model, does not reality make.

    The pathetic part? The areas of medicine affected weren't just a few corner cases - they were entire fields: burn treatment, trauma treatment, sepsis treatment

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/12/sc...ays.html?_r=1&

    For decades, mice have been the species of choice in the study of human diseases. But now, researchers report evidence that the mouse model has been totally misleading for at least three major killers — sepsis, burns and trauma. As a result, years and billions of dollars have been wasted following false leads, they say. The study’s findings do not mean that mice are useless models for all human diseases. But, its authors said, they do raise troubling questions about diseases like the ones in the study that involve the immune system, including cancer and heart disease.

    “Our article raises at least the possibility that a parallel situation may be present,” said Dr. H. Shaw Warren, a sepsis researcher at Massachusetts General Hospital and a lead author of the new study.

    The paper
    , published Monday in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, helps explain why every one of nearly 150 drugs tested at a huge expense in patients with sepsis has failed. The drug tests all were based on studies in mice. And mice, it turns out, can have something that looks like sepsis in humans, but is very different from the condition in humans.

    Medical experts not associated with the study said that the findings should change the course of research worldwide for a deadly and frustrating condition. Sepsis, a potentially deadly reaction that occurs as the body tries to fight an infection, afflicts 750,000 patients a year in the United States, kills one-fourth to one-half of them, and costs the nation $17 billion a year. It is the leading cause of death in intensive-care units.

    “This is a game changer,” said Dr. Mitchell Fink, a sepsis expert at the University of California, Los Angeles, of the new study.

    “It’s amazing,” said Dr. Richard Wenzel, a former chairman at the department of internal medicine at Virginia Commonwealth University and a former editor of The New England Journal of Medicine. “They are absolutely right on.”

    Potentially deadly immune responses occur when a person’s immune system overreacts to what it perceives as danger signals, including toxic molecules from bacteria, viruses, fungi, or proteins released from cells damaged by trauma or burns, said Dr. Clifford S. Deutschman, who directs sepsis research at the University of Pennsylvania and was not part of the study.

    The ramped-up immune system releases its own proteins in such overwhelming amounts that capillaries begin to leak. The leak becomes excessive, and serum seeps out of the tiny blood vessels. Blood pressure falls, and vital organs do not get enough blood. Despite efforts, doctors and nurses in an intensive-care unit or an emergency room may be unable to keep up with the leaks, stop the infection or halt the tissue damage. Vital organs eventually fail.

    The new study, which took 10 years and involved 39 researchers from across the country, began by studying white blood cells from hundreds of patients with severe burns, trauma or sepsis to see what genes were being used by white blood cells when responding to these danger signals.

    The researchers found some interesting patterns and accumulated a large, rigorously collected data set that should help move the field forward, said Ronald W. Davis, a genomics expert at Stanford University and a lead author of the new paper. Some patterns seemed to predict who would survive and who would end up in intensive care, clinging to life and, often, dying.

    The group had tried to publish its findings in several papers. One objection, Dr. Davis said, was that the researchers had not shown the same gene response had happened in mice.

    “They were so used to doing mouse studies that they thought that was how you validate things,” he said. “They are so ingrained in trying to cure mice that they forget we are trying to cure humans.”


    “That started us thinking,” he continued. “Is it the same in the mouse or not?”

    The group decided to look, expecting to find some similarities. But when the data were analyzed, there were none at all.


    “We were kind of blown away,” Dr. Davis said.

    The drug failures became clear. For example, often in mice, a gene would be used, while in humans, the comparable gene would be suppressed. A drug that worked in mice by disabling that gene could make the response even more deadly in humans.

    Even more surprising, Dr. Warren said, was that different conditions in mice — burns, trauma, sepsis — did not fit the same pattern. Each condition used different groups of genes. In humans, though, similar genes were used in all three conditions. That means, Dr. Warren said, that if researchers can find a drug that works for one of those conditions in people, it might work for all three.

    The study’s investigators tried for more than a year to publish their paper, which showed that there was no relationship between the genetic responses of mice and those of humans. They submitted it to the publications Science and Nature, hoping to reach a wide audience. It was rejected from both.

    Science and Nature said it was their policy not to comment on the fate of a rejected paper, or whether it had even been submitted to them. But, Ginger Pinholster of Science said, the journal accepts only about 7 percent of the nearly 13,000 papers submitted each year, so it is not uncommon for a paper to make the rounds.

    Still, Dr. Davis said, reviewers did not point out scientific errors. Instead, he said, “the most common response was, ‘It has to be wrong. I don’t know why it is wrong, but it has to be wrong.’ ”

    The investigators turned to Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. As a member of the academy, Dr. Davis could suggest reviewers for his paper, and he proposed researchers who he thought would give the work a fair hearing. “If they don’t like it, I want to know why,” he said. They recommended publication, and the editorial board of the journal, which independently assesses papers, agreed.

    Some researchers, reading the paper now, say they are as astonished as the researchers were when they saw the data.

    “When I read the paper, I was stunned by just how bad the mouse data are,” Dr. Fink said. “It’s really amazing — no correlation at all. These data are so persuasive and so robust that I think funding agencies are going to take note.” Until now, he said, “to get funding, you had to propose experiments using the mouse model.”

    Yet there was always one major clue that mice might not really mimic humans in this regard: it is very hard to kill a mouse with a bacterial infection. Mice need a million times more bacteria in their blood than what would kill a person.

    “Mice can eat garbage and food that is lying around and is rotten,” Dr. Davis said. “Humans can’t do that. We are too sensitive.”

    Researchers said that if they could figure out why mice were so resistant, they might be able to use that discovery to find something to make people resistant.

    “This is a very important paper,” said Dr. Richard Hotchkiss, a sepsis researcher at Washington University who was not involved in the study. “It argues strongly — go to the patients. Get their cells. Get their tissues whenever you can. Get cells from airways.”

    “To understand sepsis, you have to go to the patients,” he said.

  • #2
    Re: More stupid model tricks: faith in drug testing on mice yields billions of dollars wasted and many more lives lost

    Originally posted by c1ue View Post
    Yet another shining example of why a proxy, or a model, does not reality make.

    The pathetic part? The areas of medicine affected weren't just a few corner cases - they were entire fields: burn treatment, trauma treatment, sepsis treatment

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/12/sc...ays.html?_r=1&

    Yet another example of the dangers it is to use the conviences of abstactions and analogy to save time and effort. I would find myself in a good deal agreement with many people if I accepted the established premise. Think of how many "poisonous" berries there are, as if the plant is trying to kill its transporter. They are all edible by something. They will one day compare this to surgury during the civil war.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: More stupid model tricks: faith in drug testing on mice yields billions of dollars wasted and many more lives lost

      Something similar happened with testing the vitamin B-12 content of spirulina. Spirulina supposedly has high amounts of B-12; it's touted as a good source of B-12 for vegetarians. But to determine the amount of B-12 in foods, they use cultures of pig cells. Pigs can utilize a B-12 analogue that humans cannot. The B-12 in spirulina is usable by pigs, but in humans it merely occupies the B-12 receptors, making real B-12 unavailable. This was discovered when vegetarians started developing symptoms of what was thought to be schizophrenia, but it turned out to be severe B-12 deficiency. They had been using spirulina for years for their B-12 source. I still see spirulina marketed for vegetarians as "High in B-12".

      Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: More stupid model tricks: faith in drug testing on mice yields billions of dollars wasted and many more lives lost

        historically, testing went from mice to rabbits to sheep to monkeys before clinical trial... for humanitarian reasons, we are no longer testing with monkeys... so we test with err... 3rd world human in countries where regulations are far less strict...

        fundamentally, the problem doesn't lie with test model, but with the pharmaceutical industry... many people are put on life-long medication like ace-inhibitors without long-term testing, and many deaths result from it... I'd rather have higher than normal blood pressure while maintaining a healthy weight and exercise than take any drugs... but i guess that's not the point...

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        • #5
          Re: More stupid model tricks: faith in drug testing on mice yields billions of dollars wasted and many more lives lost

          Originally posted by evangellydonut View Post
          historically, testing went from mice to rabbits to sheep to monkeys before clinical trial... for humanitarian reasons, we are no longer testing with monkeys... so we test with err... 3rd world human in countries where regulations are far less strict...

          fundamentally, the problem doesn't lie with test model, but with the pharmaceutical industry... many people are put on life-long medication like ace-inhibitors without long-term testing, and many deaths result from it... I'd rather have higher than normal blood pressure while maintaining a healthy weight and exercise than take any drugs... but i guess that's not the point...
          Not to mention that there has to be a significant portion of the human population where it is perferctly normal for their bodies to operate with high blood pressure no?

          Weren't a large portion of humans immune from the plaque and I am quite sure there is a large portion of humans immune from HIV.

          Evolution can't let everyone die the same way.

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          • #6
            Re: More stupid model tricks: faith in drug testing on mice yields billions of dollars wasted and many more lives lost

            redacted
            Last edited by nedtheguy; October 09, 2014, 04:23 PM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: More stupid model tricks: faith in drug testing on mice yields billions of dollars wasted and many more lives lost

              Originally posted by nedtheguy View Post
              .... This NY Times article, however, is so sensationalistic it makes me want to reach for the whiskey bottle and it's only 9 am.
              .....
              Crisis averted, I feel better - no need for the whiskey...well, at least until this evening.
              just make sure you stay away from the makers mark

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: More stupid model tricks: faith in drug testing on mice yields billions of dollars wasted and many more lives lost

                Originally posted by ntg
                Despite my limited knowledge of genetics, I found the conclusions of the paper interesting. OK, mouse models are not effective for humans for certain conditions and thus human model and/or tissues must be used. I get that. I'm not in this field, so I don't even know if most scientists are even using mouse models or not, but I get it. This NY Times article, however, is so sensationalistic it makes me want to reach for the whiskey bottle and it's only 9 am.
                Actually, you failed to read the NY times article as well as the paper correctly.

                It isn't a mouse model - it is the use of mice in physical testing as a proxy for human reactions to treatments. So we're not talking even about something as fundamentally skewable as a computer model, we're talking about an entire ecosystem of live mice and testing protocols.

                Originally posted by ntg
                I see the conclusion of their study (italics mine), but I don't see where "they" mention any time and money being wasted following false leads anywhere in the paper. In fact, it's not even quoted in the article by any of the authors or experts in the field. In fact, the only other place money is mentioned is in paragraph 5:
                Amusingly enough - you don't seem to understand that if the use of live mice in testing protocols is incorrect, then this fundamental cornerstone of pharmaceutical research in these areas is broken. This means that all of the compounds that were tested and found to either work or work, the results are, at a minimum, not to be trusted.

                How many compounds have been screened using mice for testing, given the prevalence of the mouse testing protocol to such an extent that the so called expert reviewers simply could not understand that this bedrock of their experience is wrong?

                The article also specifically mentions compounds which do work on mice, but don't on people.

                Originally posted by ntg
                This isn't even a violation of "correlation is not causation". It's not even correlation. It's a semantic trick. Sepsis is very serious and life threatening. Yes, I get that. "It costs society $17 billion a year." OK, I don't know where Ms. Kolata came up with that number or what it even stands for. Is this from medical costs to the patient? Burden to society? It's very unclear, but let's say that someone came up with the cost to society from death or hospitalization due to sepsis at $17 billion a year. But, that's not sensationalistic enough to get people to click on the article. We need to take that number and build a story around it. These guys published a paper that says some of these models are wrong, let's pull out the ol' Hollywood plot: Renegade researchers and their crusade against the big stuffy patriarchy that should have listened to them. Now we can take that $17 billion figure and say if only the scientific establishment had listened to these guys we could have saved society billions - ignoring the fact that even if all researchers moved to human modelling, someone still has to invent methods to stop the body from going septic. To reinforce this plot, let's add the story from the two biggest science journals rejecting them:
                Not sure what you're trying to say here. Are you arguing the industry numbers? Of course, you went off track right from the start - confusing modeling for testing. A mouse used for to test potential effects of a compound on humans is a model for a human, but it isn't a computer model.

                Also, the paper doesn't say some of the models/testing protocols are wrong. They're saying ALL of the mice assumptions in the fields of sepsis, burn, and trauma are wrong.

                They also note the specific mechanisms: mice live on garbage and have immune systems tuned to handle massive loads of bacteria. Is it so surprising then that they behave differently in these areas?

                The paper doesn't say mice can't be used to test blood pressure, or fat reduction, or any of a myriad other areas - only the specific 3 mentioned above, and a reason is provided.

                You also ignored that the paper's conclusions aren't based on conjecture but on real world data.

                Originally posted by ntg
                The article even says these journals only accept 7% of their papers...but it's a conspiracy!!!
                Strange, no one used the word conspiracy except you.

                What the article noted specifically was the most of the expert reviewer comments were clearly based on a reflexive assumption that the mouse testing protocol can't be wrong.

                Or, to put another way, the consensus believes the mouse testing protocol.

                Originally posted by ntg
                I highly doubt that both Science and Nature would just outright say that the paper was wrong, but that's what he said happened - so be it. The second paragraph then turns the scientific journal process into a story. I've never submitted to Science or Nature, but the standard process when submitting journals is to suggest reviewers, but Ms. Kolata adds a little emotional touch: give the work a fair hearing. Because the other reviewers were out to get us and that's why they rejected our paper.
                Sad, that you ignored what was written clearly in the article. There was no mention of conspiracy or anything else, but there was a consistent theme where the expert reviewers were rejecting the paper for completely unspecified and unscientific reasons.

                To repeat:

                Still, Dr. Davis said, reviewers did not point out scientific errors. Instead, he said, “the most common response was, ‘It has to be wrong. I don’t know why it is wrong, but it has to be wrong.’ ”
                I don't know why, but it has to be wrong? Yes, that's so expert and scientific.

                Originally posted by ntg
                And found plenty more sane voices in the wilderness in there. Crisis averted, I feel better - no need for the whiskey...well, at least until this evening.
                Yep, those sane voices are all saying the same thing: the consensus... the consensus... the consensus...

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: More stupid model tricks: faith in drug testing on mice yields billions of dollars wasted and many more lives lost

                  redacted
                  Last edited by nedtheguy; October 09, 2014, 04:23 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: More stupid model tricks: faith in drug testing on mice yields billions of dollars wasted and many more lives lost

                    Originally posted by ntg
                    Re-writing the story as a soap opera doesn't get people interested in science, it keeps readers' minds hooked on fluff. But, I can't fault the NY Times for that, they print what sells papers. That's my lamentation.
                    Your understanding from reading the article is apparently different than mine.

                    The headline on the actual NY Times article is:

                    Mice Fall Short as Test Subjects for Humans’ Deadly Ills

                    with the browser heading saying:

                    Health Testing on Mice Found Misleading in Some Cases.

                    It is in the title to this forum posting where I note the actual impact of this study, if proven out. So maybe it is with my title that you have issue.

                    Certainly the paper can be wrong - time will show this to be true or not.

                    However, the gist of the article seemed quite reasonable to me:

                    1) The areas affected and the possible reason for disconnect
                    2) The struggles experienced by the paper's authors
                    3) The fundamental nature of why this paper matters
                    4) The impact if said paper is borne out being huge

                    If anything, the article underplays the impact of this paper. The paper is - to the sepsis, burn, and trauma medical fields as well as possibly others - very much like what Einstein's work did to physics: a questioning of fundamental principles.

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