The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

[c1ue]

Re: The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

Touchring,

Look at the respective y-axes.

The numbers are not the same - the point being made is that China's GDP growth seems similar to the US', just with a lower starting point.

[touchring]

Re: The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

Thks, after looking at the chart again, i think i see a pattern. Before 1991, the US grew faster than China. But after 1991, China is growing faster than the US.

[c1ue]

Re: The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

Yes, but you're still missing the point.

China started from a lower level - the present growth is faster than the US, but it will still be decades for China to achieve a US level.

This assumes that a) it is possible for 1.3B people to live at the 2007 US resource footprint and b) that all of the money in the rest of the world flows into China. And I do mean all.

b) could happen - but likely has already happened.

Think of it as a Financial FIREstorm - where the heat from rising assets in turn draws in more money, which in turn increases the heat.

The US has now hit the point where the firestorm is dying and revealing a landscape of melted glass and cinders.

[touchring]

Re: The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

Yes, almost impossible for china to achieve a US level on a per capita basis.

http://www.econ.iastate.edu/classes/...choi/rankh.htm

Based on this research, from 1500 to 1820, China contributed a quarter to a third of the World economy, but still GDP per capita was less than the West.

YEAR	0	1000	1500	1820	1995
World	$425	$420	$545	$675	$5,188
The West	$439	$406	$624	$1,149	$19,990
West Europe	450	400	670	1,269	17,456
North America	400	400	400	1,233	22,933
Japan	400	425	525	675	19,720
The Rest	$423	$424	$532	$594	$2,971
Other Europe	400	400	597	803	5,147
Latin America	400	415	415	671	5,031
China	450	450	600	600	2,653
Other Asia	425	425	525	560	2,768
Africa	400	400	400	400	1,221