The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

[jk]

Re: The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

If there are 12.8M Chinese in Beijing, or 1 in 4 with cars, then that means the 3.1B/4 = 800M Chinese 'urban third' - 1/4 of which have cars, collectively own 200M vehicles?

where do you get "3.1B" chinese? china's population is about 1.3B

[touchring]

Re: The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

If there are 12.8M Chinese in Beijing, or 1 in 4 with cars, then that means the 3.1B/4 = 800M Chinese 'urban third' - 1/4 of which have cars, collectively own 200M vehicles?

Beijing's population is close to 18 million. The persons per car population ratio isn't fixed in China, and varies. Shanghai has 50% more people than Beijing but has only 800,000 cars due to quotas - you can read here - http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/20...nt_7032408.htm.

Many Asian cities are highly compact and people use subway and rails instead of cars to travel.

[c1ue]

Re: The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

where do you get "3.1B" chinese? china's population is about 1.3B

Pardon me, my dsylexai is showing.

Yes, should be 1.3B - with corresponding correction:

If there are 12.8M Chinese in Beijing, or 1 in 4 with cars, then that means the 1.3B/3 = 433M Chinese 'urban third' - 1/4 of which have cars, collectively own 108M vehicles?

Fortunately I made multiple errors here so the final number is still significant.

As for the population of Beijing, I took this from: http://www.beijingpage.com/

There is an old article from 2004 which talks about Beijing's population hitting 15M by 2008; I don't know where 18M is coming from.

Note that this is all within the context of gasoline in China being heavily subsidized to nearly the US' price levels.

[metalman]

Re: The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

MPS? They can't be bothered with economics. These guys are busy catching political activists in China and craps.

Unless you do a field visit to various parts of China, rural, urban, inland, coastal, you will know that statistics don't count.

Beijing alone has more than 3 million cars, half the entire car population of the entire Taiwan, and Beijing is not even among the top 10 major China cities in income per capita.

i get the impression you're in taiwan or maybe singapore?

"catching craps"? how do you do that? you must mean busy catching political activists and playing craps.

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

Touchring

*I'm sure outback oracle will agree with what i say. ;)

Of course!! Given also that a lot of things have been mis-priced for so long in China, my observation is that those who have money are downright profligate!

Make no mistake the Chines like material wealth and all the latest gadgetry, so as their economic clout increases they will squeeze the rest of us for resources. We seem both ignorant of this and unwilling tp prepare for it.
I've spent too much of my life short of cash (not being very smart)and I always wanted to buy Real Estate in China. There was an area in Qingdao on the coast that I wanted to buy a bit of years ago. What i could have picked up for say $30 or 40,000 USD is now worth about $20 million!
I dunno...experience is knowing when you have just made the same mistake again!
Cheers

[touchring]

Re: The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

i get the impression you're in taiwan or maybe singapore?

"catching craps"? how do you do that? you must mean busy catching political activists and playing craps.

I'm from Singapore. I meant crap.

[touchring]

Re: The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

There was an area in Qingdao on the coast that I wanted to buy a bit of years ago. What i could have picked up for say $30 or 40,000 USD is now worth about $20 million!

Same situation here, but investing in chinese real estate used to be a risky proposition - there was no private property law until recently. Most people expect the real estate market to go bust next year. But your $40,000 price will never come again. You might be able to buy for 5-8$ million though. :eek:

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

C1ue,

Interesting comments and fodder for an ongoing interesting discussion but I`m pressed for time right now.

On the decline of the Roman Empire, coincidentally, I just read an interesting and new, albeit more mundane, view on the decline of the Romans.

200-400 AD saw a 25% decline in population due to disease. A slave based economy and a traditionally oriented culture saw no need to invest in technical innovation. No technical innovation allowed competitors around the Mediterranean to reach parity and cross border trade declined. Hence the economy began stagnating.

This along with increasing demands to protect the frontiers forced the government to increase taxes, ultimately to confiscatory levels. Urban elites moved into the country to avoid both taxes and urban decline, further eroding the vibrancy of the economy and political progressiveness.

Does any of this sound familiar?

Best regards,

Greg

[Andreuccio]

Re: The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

where do you get "3.1B" chinese? china's population is about 1.3B

Could C1ue be dislexic?

[metalman]

Re: The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

I'm from Singapore. I meant crap.

good guess, huh? a belated welcome!

[c1ue]

Re: The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

Does any of this sound familiar?

Yes, unfortunately, that is exactly why I've been moving money out of the USA since October of last year.

My main question at this point is who will reprise the Visigoths? :eek:

[touchring]

Re: The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

good guess, huh? a belated welcome!

Cool, i think i'm the one that is dyslexic. I thought craps is the plural form of crap.

[FRED]

Re: The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

Touchring

*I'm sure outback oracle will agree with what i say. ;)

Of course!! Given also that a lot of things have been mis-priced for so long in China, my observation is that those who have money are downright profligate!

Make no mistake the Chines like material wealth and all the latest gadgetry, so as their economic clout increases they will squeeze the rest of us for resources. We seem both ignorant of this and unwilling tp prepare for it.
I've spent too much of my life short of cash (not being very smart)and I always wanted to buy Real Estate in China. There was an area in Qingdao on the coast that I wanted to buy a bit of years ago. What i could have picked up for say $30 or 40,000 USD is now worth about $20 million!
I dunno...experience is knowing when you have just made the same mistake again!
Cheers

While researching the answer to JK's question about Ka-Poom Theory here, we did a per capita GDP analysis comparing the US and China in dollars and rimnimbi using the IMF's versus China's data. We got this:

China per capita GDP growth is 2.6x since 1990 vs 1.6x for the US. Perhaps the Chinese statisticians are using a different measure of "per capita."

[Guest]

Re: The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

Could C1ue be dislexic?

GASP! A dyslexic BOT! :eek:

[touchring]

Re: The Long Fall: A Market Without Parachutes

While researching the answer to JK's question about Ka-Poom Theory here, we did a per capita GDP analysis comparing the US and China in dollars and rimnimbi using the IMF's versus China's data. We got this:

China per capita GDP growth is 2.6x since 1990 vs 1.6x for the US. Perhaps the Chinese statisticians are using a different measure of "per capita."

I'm not sure if statistics like this reflect reality.

Back in the 1970s, the chinese were living in mud houses, had no electricity, washed their clothes by the river, walk or cycle to work, and meals were just porriage and a whole pot of cabbage. Today, the chinese got electricity, tv, and washing machine, and ride or drive to work. Americans did not live a drastically different life between 1970 and 2007, i believe?