Reggie Middleton Empirically Shows Facebook Getting "My Space[d]" As They Actually Lose Users

[reggie]

Re: Reggie Middleton Empirically Shows Facebook Getting "My Space[d]" As They Actually Lose Users

Things are neither so simple nor so obvious as this. Here is a more balanced nuanced discussion.


The $100bn Facebook question: Will capitalism survive 'value abundance'?
Michel Bauwens is a theorist, writer, and a founder of the P2P (Peer-to-Peer) Foundation.

This article does not even address the central issues. Quite frankly, this material is a diversion.

Social networks of the kind that Facebook deploys are sophisticated social feedback mechanisms that create advanced prediction and navigation controls for their architects. Marshall Mcluhan still does one of the best jobs analyzing the impact of these types of systems... perhaps its time to review his work.

[gwynedd1]

Re: Reggie Middleton Empirically Shows Facebook Getting "My Space[d]" As They Actually Lose Users

The biggest problem I saw all along was the younger generation being in the same virtual room as their parents and relatives. Social media will inherently fragment because no human contact and intercourse was ever meant to involve everyone at all times.

[reggie]

Re: Reggie Middleton Empirically Shows Facebook Getting "My Space[d]" As They Actually Lose Users

The biggest problem I saw all along was the younger generation being in the same virtual room as their parents and relatives. Social media will inherently fragment because no human contact and intercourse was ever meant to involve everyone at all times.

Living at the Speed of Light is how I think Mcluhan termed it, where literature is lost and the space of the world compresses to a village resulting in loss of privacy and individuality where there is no time to do anything other than live in the moment .... the global village where tribalism and groupism reigns, turf wars (emanating from that dynamic) return.

I'm attaching a PhD thesis for those interested to puruse, where the author implements "methods to characterize, predict, and detect change in individual and group behaviors and demonstrated their effectiveness
using real world data" from the Internet. The thesis gives perspective into the power of network design as deployed today. (can't seem to attach pdf to this post.... I'll post a link to doc below).

gradworks.umi.com/3426407.pdf

[c1ue]

Re: Reggie Middleton Empirically Shows Facebook Getting "My Space[d]" As They Actually Lose Users

My view is a little different.

Myspace was really more about music - it got hot because it became a way for fans to 'connect' to their favorite bands. Unfortunately Myspace thought it had a lot more than this, and was proven wrong.

Facebook in turn is all about sharing. There is value in making sharing easier, but at the same time it is like a kid getting a cell phone for the first time. Yak yak yak.

Over time, the yakking doesn't stop, but it does moderate significantly. Equally at some point, many people just don't want to know every little friggin' detail about what their 'friends' do.

As for Angie's list - they've already failed the TV smell test: i.e. any internet company that advertises on TV - watch out. Their focus on contractors is interesting - many younger contractors do well simply because the older ones don't even bother with the internet, or are at best neophytes. A younger contractor who understands search engine placement can monopolize internet search based inquiries over a wide area. Note that this doesn't mean said contractor is better - it just means they are much stronger at customer acquisition. At this stage, acquisition is far more lucrative than retention (not dissimilar to early stage internet companies...)

I also conceptually do not see how any internet based company can provide any type of realistic skill appraisal for something as amorphous as home improvement - and reviews are even worse. Do most individual homeowners really know enough to honestly evaluate work that was done for them? The ones who do know probably just do it themselves.

[flintlock]

Re: Reggie Middleton Empirically Shows Facebook Getting "My Space[d]" As They Actually Lose Users

As a cautionary aside for my friends here, the vendors in Angie's List are no better than what you'd find in the phone book or on Craig's List. Of the five plumbers, three insulation installers, three bathroom remodeling contractors and two general handymen that I interviewed from Angie's List, all but one plumber were overcharging rip-offs, incompetent, or both. It's not worth the cost of a subscription.

X2 about Angie's List.

[flintlock]

Re: Reggie Middleton Empirically Shows Facebook Getting "My Space[d]" As They Actually Lose Users

Angie's List supposedly screens their contractors, but the ones I talked to from there were mostly awful. For example, three contactors bid from $900 to $1800 to seal a leaking air duct under my floor. The maintenance man in my mobile home park sealed it like iron top and bottom for $35. It took him 90 minutes and that included ripping out a section of tile floor, replacing the subfloor and tile, and $12 worth of materials.

Four plumbers bid from $2500 to $5000 to replumb my house, until I found an honest one who did it for $850. One of the plumbers wanted $250 to reset the toilet!

The insulation company I hired to replace the old insulation under my house only did half the job, leaving sections uncovered and falling down. I had to threaten them with the Registrar of Contractors to make them come back and finish.

The bathroom remodelers made such a hash of my bathroom that I had to fire them. My plumber- the one good contractor I found on Angie's List- said he'd never seen a job bungled so badly. Other contractors I interviewed to finish the job wanted to do things that were against code. They obviously didn't know best practices with materials and methods.

I eventually hired the park's maintenance man to do the bathroom on weekends. The whole room had to be stripped out to the studs and rebuilt. It took month but he did a good job. (it was a real pain, too, being my only bathroom)

Maybe shoddy, overpriced workmanship's the norm with contractors today, I don't know. My husband did all our repairs- plumbing, carpentry, roofing, everything. For 19 years we didn't hire one outside person to fix anything. In the 2 years since he died, the house decided it was time to fall apart and I got thrown to the contractor wolves... What a learning experience!

While I agree you will often see outrageous quotes from contractors, I also think your idea of a "fair" price might be unrealistic when you consider everything. An hour and half for $23?? I personally wouldn't allow someone only charging that to touch my home. While I realize you probably knew that person, and perhaps he was just doing you a favor, that kind of fee wouldn't pay the travel expenses, much less the insurance, taxes, and other fees required to run a legitimate business. Lets talk hypothetical situations. What happens if a pipe breaks accidentally while breaking out the tile? If an unseen wire is cut? Don't tell me it doesn't happen because I see it all the time. Is he insured? Is he stealing from his employer by doing side work on the clock, and using his bosses materials? For that matter, is he going to steal from you when your back is turned? Because he certainly can't earn a living at that price. Gotta make up the difference somehow. Just things to think about when hiring "fair" contractors.

I basically go behind guys like your maintenance man for a living and fix their screw ups. While your guy may be the exception, I can attest that usually they are not. Most are not insured, don't have a pot to piss in, and when things go south they disappear just as fast as the rip-off Angie Listers. They can't afford to stand behind their work even if they wanted to. I just know all this watercooler talk about contractor prices gives people the wrong impression about what they should expect to pay for quality work, with a warranty. I see just as many sad tales of homeowners using contractors who didn't charge enough. If they are not rip off artists from the start, then they are poor businessmen who run out of money before the job can be properly finished. At least 75% of the problems I see arise from unlicensed, unqualified workers, who only got the job by bidding low. Buyer beware, if it sounds too good to be true it usually is, and many problems with plumbing and electrical especially, only show up years later. And usually in a very bad way.

I am working a job on my street where the basement was "finished" by a guy doing side work from his regular job. Its holding up sale of the house because it failed a home inspection. Now the owner gets to pay again. Not only to re-do everything, but the cost of the demolition, hauling off the debris, and then doing it all over again, correctly, with the required permits. And because the closing is set in March, it will probably cost even more to do a rush job. What a bargain that guy turned out to be.

If I could give you one piece of advice, it would be to shop for VALUE, not just price when seeking out contractors. Ask friends, family, etc for referrals and ask to talk to previous customers. I truly see just as many customers feeling ripped off by low priced contractors as over priced ones. The middle ground is usually where you will have the best experience.

[flintlock]

Re: Reggie Middleton Empirically Shows Facebook Getting "My Space[d]" As They Actually Lose Users

My view is a little different.

Myspace was really more about music - it got hot because it became a way for fans to 'connect' to their favorite bands. Unfortunately Myspace thought it had a lot more than this, and was proven wrong.

Facebook in turn is all about sharing. There is value in making sharing easier, but at the same time it is like a kid getting a cell phone for the first time. Yak yak yak.

Over time, the yakking doesn't stop, but it does moderate significantly. Equally at some point, many people just don't want to know every little friggin' detail about what their 'friends' do.

As for Angie's list - they've already failed the TV smell test: i.e. any internet company that advertises on TV - watch out. Their focus on contractors is interesting - many younger contractors do well simply because the older ones don't even bother with the internet, or are at best neophytes. A younger contractor who understands search engine placement can monopolize internet search based inquiries over a wide area. Note that this doesn't mean said contractor is better - it just means they are much stronger at customer acquisition. At this stage, acquisition is far more lucrative than retention (not dissimilar to early stage internet companies...)

I also conceptually do not see how any internet based company can provide any type of realistic skill appraisal for something as amorphous as home improvement - and reviews are even worse. Do most individual homeowners really know enough to honestly evaluate work that was done for them? The ones who do know probably just do it themselves.

Very well put. Most homeowners don't know if they got a good job or not. Most are certainly unqualified to judge the quality of plumbing, electrical, and HVAC work. Its often only when they face an inspection by the buyer when they sell the home that issues come to light. Many reviewers allow themselves to be fooled by token PR efforts like a coupon for a free Starbucks or a thank you note sent by the business. While that may be nice, it is no substitute for quality work and a company that will stand behind their work.

I've been in the business for 30 years. You can boil down most home contracting businesses into a few types.

1) Those that rely on massive advertising. They may or may not do competent work, but the price is always 2-3x the general going rate. They don't get much referral business due to either price or work quality or both. What they do offer is rapid service, often same day.

2) Jack-leg, semi-competent, cut-rate types. Bad work at low prices is no bargain. No insurance, no licenses, and nowhere to be found when something fails. Twice in the last few years I've been called by owners because a cut rate "plumber" cut the main service wire with his saw. On one occasion the plumber said he was going for help and never came back. The other he just loaded up his tools and left. No license, no accountability. Often known just by first name only.

3) What I call standard contractor. Usually in business for a long time. Licensed and insured. May advertise, but not fully dependent on it. Most work comes in through referral. Prices not cheap but not outrageous either. At least 50% of homeowners will still initially consider them too expensive until life experience teaches them otherwise. You will rarely see this contractor advertising on Radio or TV. In my experience, something usually turns out bad with anyone advertising this way. Either very high prices, or poor quality, or both. But I'm sure there are exceptions.

I rely on my kids for understanding the trends with social media. Facebook is so yesterday with kids. Then it was Twitter. Now its Instagram

[shiny!]

Re: Reggie Middleton Empirically Shows Facebook Getting "My Space[d]" As They Actually Lose Users

While I agree you will often see outrageous quotes from contractors, I also think your idea of a "fair" price might be unrealistic when you consider everything. An hour and half for $23?? I personally wouldn't allow someone only charging that to touch my home. While I realize you probably knew that person, and perhaps he was just doing you a favor, that kind of fee wouldn't pay the travel expenses, much less the insurance, taxes, and other fees required to run a legitimate business. Lets talk hypothetical situations. What happens if a pipe breaks accidentally while breaking out the tile? If an unseen wire is cut? Don't tell me it doesn't happen because I see it all the time. Is he insured? Is he stealing from his employer by doing side work on the clock, and using his bosses materials? For that matter, is he going to steal from you when your back is turned? Because he certainly can't earn a living at that price. Gotta make up the difference somehow. Just things to think about when hiring "fair" contractors.

I basically go behind guys like your maintenance man for a living and fix their screw ups. While your guy may be the exception, I can attest that usually they are not. Most are not insured, don't have a pot to piss in, and when things go south they disappear just as fast as the rip-off Angie Listers. They can't afford to stand behind their work even if they wanted to. I just know all this watercooler talk about contractor prices gives people the wrong impression about what they should expect to pay for quality work, with a warranty. I see just as many sad tales of homeowners using contractors who didn't charge enough. If they are not rip off artists from the start, then they are poor businessmen who run out of money before the job can be properly finished. At least 75% of the problems I see arise from unlicensed, unqualified workers, who only got the job by bidding low. Buyer beware, if it sounds too good to be true it usually is, and many problems with plumbing and electrical especially, only show up years later. And usually in a very bad way.

I am working a job on my street where the basement was "finished" by a guy doing side work from his regular job. Its holding up sale of the house because it failed a home inspection. Now the owner gets to pay again. Not only to re-do everything, but the cost of the demolition, hauling off the debris, and then doing it all over again, correctly, with the required permits. And because the closing is set in March, it will probably cost even more to do a rush job. What a bargain that guy turned out to be.

If I could give you one piece of advice, it would be to shop for VALUE, not just price when seeking out contractors. Ask friends, family, etc for referrals and ask to talk to previous customers. I truly see just as many customers feeling ripped off by low priced contractors as over priced ones. The middle ground is usually where you will have the best experience.

Oh, I totally agree with what you're saying. The maintenance man I hired is someone I know, and we both work for the same company. (I'm secretary to his boss' boss). He did my work after hours and on weekends. I paid him his regular hourly wage and bought him lunch. He's honest to a fault, or I wouldn't have let him into the house. I wouldn't hire the other maintenance men I know, for the reasons you describe: drunks, low-lifes, etc...

I've been burned by unlicensed contractors which was why I tried to go the Angie's list way. What I found was the licensed guys were no better than the unlicensed ones, only more expensive. True, I had recourse with the Registrar of Contractors when they screwed me, but all I was saying was just because someone's licensed is no longer a reason to think they know what they're doing.

I had a leaking air duct that had been damaged by the dryer vent. It was leaking top and bottom. The insulation contractor had not inspected any of my air ducts except for that one, but he told me I needed their Air Duct Special of $450 to fix all my ducts- because they were all leaking. I asked him how they had ONE price for everyone, since every house is different. Shifty answer. I asked him to take his iPhone and photograph all the leaks (my plumber takes pictures of everything as he works). He got shifty again and said he wouldn't do that. For my bad duct, he would have only sealed on the bottom where access to it was easy, leaving it leaking on top.

I interviewed two other licensed contractors about that duct. I understand they need fair compensation for the reasons you describe, but $1800???? C'mon!

Remodelers who wanted to use greenboard and mastic in a wet area? The Universal Building Code decertified greenboard for wet areas back in 2002. Wet areas should be tiled using thinset mortar, not mastic. Two contractors wanted to cover my only bathroom window rather than tile around it, and they didn't include an air vent to replace it in their bids. That's against building code.

The one I hired- his men didn't know how to remove the subfloor. Rather than making neat cuts around the wall edge, they smashed it out with a sledgehammer. My plumber actually had to teach them how to remove a subfloor properly!

$250 to reset a toilet? That's a $50 job. $5000 for a CVPC repipe in a straight line, with only 7 fixtures to connect? My plumber is licensed; he did the job in half a day for under $1000, plus he took a refresher training in CPVC installation just to make sure he did it right.

These contractors saw "Widow. Senior citizen." Thought "Ignorant woman. Easy pickins."