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Re: Who's blowing smoke: 1933, 1971, and 2019?
Yes, but I think only marginally.
The real mistrust is not toward the US per se, or even the dollar. It is toward the Anglo-Saxon laissez-faire banking philosophy, which is dominant in the US and UK, but is also perceived to have infected domestic banks to some extent, particularly in giants like Deutsche Bank, and even the Bundesbank. This is why I am focused more on the interplay between Cameron and Merkel than the gold story. Merkel could well take a bigger hit than she is anticipating by folding to the City of London's demands (through their sock-puppet PM) for even more egregiously exceptional treatment. That's the story where she really has to walk a fine line to survive.
You only need to look at the downfall of the pro-business coalition partner, the FDP party, to see evidence of that mood. It was embarrassing. Merkel needs to be pro-Europe enough to not be overcome by the SPD, but still hold Britain back from gaining any real concession. And if she can get a Tobin tax in without pushing Britain out (at least for now), that would be the real coup. I'm doubtful that that's really an option, though.
No, The gold repatriation is more of a sweetener for now. I think there are certainly people in Germany who know enough about gold derivatives and rehypothecation to understand that their principle gold holdings in the US are at risk. But I think for most, the matter of unregulated Anglo-Saxon capitalists cheating the people makes for a more compelling source of moral outrage. And it is moral outrage that will swing an election.
There is no doubt. But I would argue that their reticence to engage until that point arrives does mean that their forces will not exactly be in peak form if that day should ever come. That's not a fundamental problem, but it does rely on playing the odds, rather than chasing a mirage of perfect security.
The U.S. has aggressively adopted a pursuit of an illusory perfect security, and firmly institutionalized it since 9/11. Germany has leaned in the other direction, and only time will tell if the gamble pays off. So far, it seems to be doing ok, particularly since the US has been stomping around the world attracting the ire (and hence, IEDs) of the all world's unstable elements. What remains to be seen is what happens as the US draws down its world footprint. If the unstable elements grow in strength as a consequence, perhaps their reluctant, but "softer", allies, will prove more tempting targets? It is of concern, but perhaps not for another year or so.
Many do. But not enough to change the electoral calculus in that direction. At least not today.
Originally posted by Polish_Silver
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The real mistrust is not toward the US per se, or even the dollar. It is toward the Anglo-Saxon laissez-faire banking philosophy, which is dominant in the US and UK, but is also perceived to have infected domestic banks to some extent, particularly in giants like Deutsche Bank, and even the Bundesbank. This is why I am focused more on the interplay between Cameron and Merkel than the gold story. Merkel could well take a bigger hit than she is anticipating by folding to the City of London's demands (through their sock-puppet PM) for even more egregiously exceptional treatment. That's the story where she really has to walk a fine line to survive.
You only need to look at the downfall of the pro-business coalition partner, the FDP party, to see evidence of that mood. It was embarrassing. Merkel needs to be pro-Europe enough to not be overcome by the SPD, but still hold Britain back from gaining any real concession. And if she can get a Tobin tax in without pushing Britain out (at least for now), that would be the real coup. I'm doubtful that that's really an option, though.
No, The gold repatriation is more of a sweetener for now. I think there are certainly people in Germany who know enough about gold derivatives and rehypothecation to understand that their principle gold holdings in the US are at risk. But I think for most, the matter of unregulated Anglo-Saxon capitalists cheating the people makes for a more compelling source of moral outrage. And it is moral outrage that will swing an election.
Originally posted by Polish_Silver
View Post
The U.S. has aggressively adopted a pursuit of an illusory perfect security, and firmly institutionalized it since 9/11. Germany has leaned in the other direction, and only time will tell if the gamble pays off. So far, it seems to be doing ok, particularly since the US has been stomping around the world attracting the ire (and hence, IEDs) of the all world's unstable elements. What remains to be seen is what happens as the US draws down its world footprint. If the unstable elements grow in strength as a consequence, perhaps their reluctant, but "softer", allies, will prove more tempting targets? It is of concern, but perhaps not for another year or so.
Originally posted by Polish_Silver
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