Shadowstats John Williams

[don]

http://usawatchdog.com/may-2013-end-...ams/#more-9891

[BadJuju]

Re: Shadowstats John Williams

I find it very difficult to take someone seriously when they try to directly compare the Weimar Republic and the USA. And that is the primary argument that John Williams makes on his website for a US hyperinflation scenario. And it is very disingenuous to say that there was a 6.9 trillion deficit last year based upon distant unfunded liabilities for programs that could change quite readily. The USA will cut benefits and probably quite dramatically. I do not expect to ever see a single dollar from SS or Medicare.

[lektrode]

Re: Shadowstats John Williams

I find it very difficult to take someone seriously when they try to directly compare the Weimar Republic and the USA. And that is the primary argument that John Williams makes on his website for a US hyperinflation scenario. And it is very disingenuous to say that there was a 6.9 trillion deficit last year based upon distant unfunded liabilities for programs that could change quite readily. The USA will cut benefits and probably quite dramatically. I do not expect to ever see a single dollar from SS or Medicare.

uhh... mr juju, with all due respect - would you take our very own mr bart seriously? (i know i do)
because his POV tracks with williams'
http://www.nowandfutures.com/us_weimar.html

and even EJ has said that a period of 20% + inflation is quite likely - tho that wont quite be 'hyper', it will be enuf to make the price of everything double in 5years or less, wipe out the value of any cash savings etc, not to mention crush stocks.

so if you dont think that should be taken seriously, you might want to reconsider.

just sayin.

[don]

Re: Shadowstats John Williams

Are you still living at home, Juju? You seemed to be exploring various living arrangements. Have you made the move yet?

[BadJuju]

Re: Shadowstats John Williams

uhh... mr juju, with all due respect - would you take our very own mr bart seriously? (i know i do)
because his POV tracks with williams'
http://www.nowandfutures.com/us_weimar.html

and even EJ has said that a period of 20% + inflation is quite likely - tho that wont quite be 'hyper', it will be enuf to make the price of everything double in 5years or less, wipe out the value of any cash savings etc, not to mention crush stocks.

so if you dont think that should be taken seriously, you might want to reconsider.

just sayin.

I will not dispute that there are parallels; however, the situation that Weimar Germany faced was quite remarkable. It wasn't just them debasing their currency to pay back reparations that led to their hyperinflation. The terms of the treaties imposed upon them and the losses suffered during and after the war were dramatic in their impact. And I think that is lost on a lot of people that want to compare the fiscal situation of the USA to it. The Weimar Republic was ruined by the war and even just the non-reparation effects were devastating.

[charliebrown]

Re: Shadowstats John Williams

Unlike the 70's, that 20% inflation will not be met with a 20% apr in wages. It is really going to hurt. Additionally, what about the public sector unions, social security, and pension system that have benefits tied to inflation. When J6P wages increase 10% apr, but a large swath of population get 20%, j6p will not be able to be taxed anymore. could get interesting ...

[c1ue]

Re: Shadowstats John Williams

The Weimar Republic was ruined by the war and even just the non-reparation effects were devastating.

The US is being ruined by FIRE and class war. For every onerous Versailles treaty obligation Germany was forced to pay, we have equal or higher equivalent FIRE debts: higher education student loans, mortgages, TBTF banks and investment banks mucking around municipal and county finances, etc etc.

Occupation of the Ruhr? Banksters are already sitting on top of all sorts of privatized public infrastructure, as well as being the creditors to any number of P/C companies and physical assets.

So while the military aspect is different - this is less important because the FIRE banksters don't need external armies to enforce their will. They've got our own government to do it for them.

I do think John Williams is more than a little alarmist, but then again the base reasons behind his views aren't incorrect, they're just magnified (IMO) out of realistic proportion.

[BadJuju]

Re: Shadowstats John Williams

Are you still living at home, Juju? You seemed to be exploring various living arrangements. Have you made the move yet?

I am, sir. Just better for everyone if I do because we share expenses. And I have grown to appreciate the company. Why do you ask?

The US is being ruined by FIRE and class war. For every onerous Versailles treaty obligation Germany was forced to pay, we have equal or higher equivalent FIRE debts: higher education student loans, mortgages, TBTF banks and investment banks mucking around municipal and county finances, etc etc.

No disagreement here on the US being ruined by FIRE and class warfare. Still, conditions are quite different from what they were in the Weimar Republic. So all of these people that look to the Weimar Republic and try to assert that is what the US will become ignore all of the differences between the two. There really isn't any precedence for the position the US is in.

[don]

Re: Shadowstats John Williams

I am, sir. Just better for everyone if I do because we share expenses. And I have grown to appreciate the company. Why do you ask?.

You've gotten a fair amount of input on your various moving ideas, from me included. Just wanted an update.

[BadJuju]

Re: Shadowstats John Williams

You've gotten a fair amount of input on your various moving ideas, from me included. Just wanted an update.

If times were better and more stable, I would, but they aren't, so some semblance of stability is nice.

[GRG55]

Re: Shadowstats John Williams

If times were better and more stable, I would, but they aren't, so some semblance of stability is nice.

Good on you. Quite frankly I think we would all be better off if we felt less stigma turning to our own families in difficult times (like we used to) instead of expecting "The Government" to fix the problem with endless social safety net spending.

[BadJuju]

Re: Shadowstats John Williams

Good on you. Quite frankly I think we would all be better off if we felt less stigma turning to our own families in difficult times (like we used to) instead of expecting "The Government" to fix the problem with endless social safety net spending.

Yeah, I like being around with them. Moving out for me would just involve me moving to a better house in an area I like and having my family move in with me! One day, I might be able to move to the Pacific Northwest. I'd have my brother, mother, and father move up there with me.

[c1ue]

Re: Shadowstats John Williams

No disagreement here on the US being ruined by FIRE and class warfare. Still, conditions are quite different from what they were in the Weimar Republic. So all of these people that look to the Weimar Republic and try to assert that is what the US will become ignore all of the differences between the two. There really isn't any precedence for the position the US is in.

It all depends on how you look at it.

As I noted above, Weimar had a series of economic payouts forced on them (and enforced) by external forces. The US has an equal series of economic payouts being forced on its population, only this time by segments of its own ruling class.

If any conclusion is to be drawn, it is that hyperinflation was a perfectly good way for Weimar to try and get out of these ridiculous debts, while the US' regulatory capture means we're going to get stuck for a long, long time - until economic gravity reasserts itself either via an externally imposed economic effect or some type of political sea change.

Overall, my view is that nothing we're seeing is unprecedented. Every empire that I've looked at always had some point where the elite chose to crush the rest of the population rather than strive for to optimize the situation for all - even if that meant managing things down.

[don]

Re: Shadowstats John Williams

Every empire that I've looked at always had some point where the elite chose to crush the rest of the population rather than strive for to optimize the situation for all - even if that meant managing things down.

summarized as promising things will only get better or through fear. we had 2+ decades of the former. we're clearly in the fear stage now . . .

[aaron]

Re: Shadowstats John Williams

C1ue's points are interesting. I did not think about that.

Timing is everything, however. John Williams will be right eventually, I guess. But, so far, no hyperinflation, no matter how many times he says it is just around the corner.

Here is our last thread about it (it is only a month old)

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...746#post245746