Delays in Funds transfers, bank payments?

[c1ue]

Re: Delays in Funds transfers, bank payments?

Tariffs will hurt American business many times more than it will hurt China.

TR,

Are you sure you aren't working in the Ministry of Public Security?

As for the above statements, the question is who is hurt more: the manufacturer who loses its largest market or the consumer who must pay more for the same good?

All in all, China would lose far more.

Tariffs against China would likely not also come in against all of the other SE Asian countries. Thus Vietnam, Indonesia, etc would benefit disproportionately.

As for the US consumer, certainly some items are price insensitive. Thus theoretically a higher priced good would hurt the US consumer.

However, since US consumer spending is already going down - I'd guess the impact is lower than a number of other factors (gasoline, house prices, jobs, etc)

Let me put this another way: if the US stops buying China's goods, where would all the crap go?

There isn't enough demand in the rest of the world to absorb it; the net effect will be to crush margins in China as too much product chases too little ex-USA demand.

[touchring]

Re: Delays in Funds transfers, bank payments?

I'm not from China, but i trade with the Chinese past few years, so i know i little more stuff and can make an objective assessment. You mentioned low margin crap, precisely, because they are low margin crap, they are not a solution to America's problems, at least for now.

TR,

Are you sure you aren't working in the Ministry of Public Security?

As for the above statements, the question is who is hurt more: the manufacturer who loses its largest market or the consumer who must pay more for the same good?

All in all, China would lose far more.

Tariffs against China would likely not also come in against all of the other SE Asian countries. Thus Vietnam, Indonesia, etc would benefit disproportionately.

As for the US consumer, certainly some items are price insensitive. Thus theoretically a higher priced good would hurt the US consumer.

However, since US consumer spending is already going down - I'd guess the impact is lower than a number of other factors (gasoline, house prices, jobs, etc)

Let me put this another way: if the US stops buying China's goods, where would all the crap go?

There isn't enough demand in the rest of the world to absorb it; the net effect will be to crush margins in China as too much product chases too little ex-USA demand.

[touchring]

Re: Delays in Funds transfers, bank payments?

Jack Crooks says Yen is a screaming medium term buy. Likes Swiss Franc too. I just signed up for his currency ETF service but have not actually bought anything there yet. He says by executing maybe a dozen timing trades a year he can (I infer) generate 40% annual returns with fairly low risk.

Yen carry trade unwinding, they've been talking about this the past 18 months. Would this be another false alarm? :confused:

[GRG55]

Re: Delays in Funds transfers, bank payments?

Yen carry trade unwinding, they've been talking about this the past 18 months. Would this be another false alarm? :confused:

Quite possibly touchring. Markets rarely do what they are "supposed" to do, or when. As with many of the topics dealt with on iTulip it's very difficult to predict the exact timing. Look how much longer the Nasdaq bubble went on, or housing, as a more recent example. As EJ has pointed out (quoting Beckett) "this" can go on longer than you think...

In the same way that housing was never going to "keep going up forever", and lenders to Private Equity were never going to start giving their money away for "free" (although it got dangerously close to that earlier this year), the carry trade can't keep expanding indefinitely either.

I was expecting the unwinding of the most egregious and levered speculations to start earlier this year, but it didn't happen. Instead we got an intensification going into July. But that appears to have been the blow off, if you believe indicators such as the obvious idiocy of cov-lite loans to PE, etc.

The credit contraction finally appears underway in ernest, and that means the biggest speculations are coming off first. The first big wave was during the August crunch, when the Yen and Swissie moved up and didn't revert to their previous lows against the US $. After a period of calm, when the pundits would have us believe all the bad news was behind us (not that they could fool anybody around here ), we are into the next Act of this tragedy of Shakespearean proportions.

We should keep in mind that this is no more "the end" of the carry trade, as it is the end of credit securitization. They aren't going away. But the number of opportunities to apply these profitably will go through a period (likely a lengthy period) of significant contraction.

I'll start peeling back my Swissie when it approaches par with the US $, and my Yen when it gets towards 0.80 (as I write this pre-European market open the Yen is approaching 1.10. down from 1.22 earlier this year, and the high yield currencies (Pound, Aussie, Loonie...), as expected, are falling against the US $ as the trades unwind), something that may take a couple of years, barring a $ crisis.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Delays in Funds transfers, bank payments?

Quite possibly touchring. Markets rarely do what they are "supposed" to do, or when. As with many of the topics dealt with on iTulip it's very difficult to predict the exact timing. Look how much longer the Nasdaq bubble went on, or housing, as a more recent example. As EJ has pointed out (quoting Beckett) "this" can go on longer than you think...

In the same way that housing was never going to "keep going up forever", and lenders to Private Equity were never going to start giving their money away for "free" (although it got dangerously close to that earlier this year), the carry trade can't keep expanding indefinitely either.

I was expecting the unwinding of the most egregious and levered speculations to start earlier this year, but it didn't happen. Instead we got an intensification going into July. But that appears to have been the blow off, if you believe indicators such as the obvious idiocy of cov-lite loans to PE, etc.

The credit contraction finally appears underway in ernest, and that means the biggest speculations are coming off first. The first big wave was during the August crunch, when the Yen and Swissie moved up and didn't revert to their previous lows against the US $. After a period of calm, when the pundits would have us believe all the bad news was behind us (not that they could fool anybody around here ), we are into the next Act of this tragedy of Shakespearean proportions.

We should keep in mind that this is no more "the end" of the carry trade, as it is the end of credit securitization. They aren't going away. But the number of opportunities to apply these profitably will go through a period (likely a lengthy period) of significant contraction.

I'll start peeling back my Swissie when it approaches par with the US $, and my Yen when it gets towards 0.80 (as I write this pre-European market open the Yen is approaching 1.10. down from 1.22 earlier this year, and the high yield currencies (Pound, Aussie, Loonie...), as expected, are falling against the US $ as the trades unwind), something that may take a couple of years, barring a $ crisis.

Greg,

What attracts you to a target of 80 yen to buy a dollar--or really a bonar?

[GRG55]

Re: Delays in Funds transfers, bank payments?

Greg,

What attracts you to a target of 80 yen to buy a dollar--or really a bonar?

Good question Jim. There's not a lot of science (chart or otherwise) in those numbers, they are simply nominal targets. If we get near them I think the major part of the relative move in the currencies will have taken place, and anything further is getting into diminishing returns as the fundamental "potential energy" or "voltage difference" will have been reduced. We could overshoot on a capitulation of some sort, and I'll just have try to judge that if I get the opportunity.

This is, in my simple-minded way of doing things, a Ka-phase position, and one won't want to overstay. As this Ka approaches the end (and I'm counting on you iTulipers to help me out big time to recognise that), I'll be looking to start putting this money into whatever looks like undervalued inflation hedges (for the Poom phase) not dollars, regardless whether the currency exchange numbers ever get near my nominal targets. (We could see a US$ rebound in 2008 (Warburton et al) that might blow this trade out of the water. Then again we could soon have a credit dervative induced dollar crisis, who knows what the future holds).

I am a totally crap market timer. I started buying Yen in late Dec 2006 and then watched the position promptly go underwater and stay that way for long time. I kept adding (and also started buying Swissie because I was getting a bit fearful I had made a big mistake with the Yen, but felt I had the fundamental outlook correct) right to the August crisis, at which point I stopped. Now we will just have to patiently wait and see if it works out.

The only reason I would hold substantial US$ is if I become convinced that there is an imminent cyclical $ rebound overprint on top of the secular downtrend. Not being much of a trader, I'll probably miss the whole move before I figure out and convince myself that it's happening.
GR.

[c1ue]

Re: Delays in Funds transfers, bank payments?

GRG,

I don't play the yen for several reasons:

1) I have trade business in it - while playing the yen is a way to hedge my yen purchases, on the other hand I'd be expanding my exposure which I don't need. I have pricing power on my products (at least thus far) and so am less concerned about hedging.

2) No interest on yen deposits. Yes, interest rates are never super sexy but on the other hand having highly secure income is not a bad thing when times are bad

3) Government intervention. Japan has repeatedly said they will intervene should the yen get much below 110.

Japan remembers the fun of yen 95/$, that will not happen again if the government has anything to do about it.

While the Mrs. Watanabe's are making this more difficult, on the other hand the Japanese government has been pouring tons of money on the market recently.

I suspect the main reason we've had such a strong spike in the last few days is because the Japanese government is looking for some alternative to fudging the yen/$ rate without buying Treasuries.

Some day they'll figure out the other way to manage it - by playing with A$, NZ, and C$

[FRED]

Re: Delays in Funds transfers, bank payments?

GRG,

I don't play the yen for several reasons:

1) I have trade business in it - while playing the yen is a way to hedge my yen purchases, on the other hand I'd be expanding my exposure which I don't need. I have pricing power on my products (at least thus far) and so am less concerned about hedging.

2) No interest on yen deposits. Yes, interest rates are never super sexy but on the other hand having highly secure income is not a bad thing when times are bad

3) Government intervention. Japan has repeatedly said they will intervene should the yen get much below 110.

Japan remembers the fun of yen 95/$, that will not happen again if the government has anything to do about it.

While the Mrs. Watanabe's are making this more difficult, on the other hand the Japanese government has been pouring tons of money on the market recently.

I suspect the main reason we've had such a strong spike in the last few days is because the Japanese government is looking for some alternative to fudging the yen/$ rate without buying Treasuries.

Some day they'll figure out the other way to manage it - by playing with A$, NZ, and C$

Time for intervention?

[GRG55]

Re: Delays in Funds transfers, bank payments?

GRG,

I don't play the yen for several reasons:

1) I have trade business in it - while playing the yen is a way to hedge my yen purchases, on the other hand I'd be expanding my exposure which I don't need. I have pricing power on my products (at least thus far) and so am less concerned about hedging.

2) No interest on yen deposits. Yes, interest rates are never super sexy but on the other hand having highly secure income is not a bad thing when times are bad

3) Government intervention. Japan has repeatedly said they will intervene should the yen get much below 110.

Japan remembers the fun of yen 95/$, that will not happen again if the government has anything to do about it.

While the Mrs. Watanabe's are making this more difficult, on the other hand the Japanese government has been pouring tons of money on the market recently.

I suspect the main reason we've had such a strong spike in the last few days is because the Japanese government is looking for some alternative to fudging the yen/$ rate without buying Treasuries.

Some day they'll figure out the other way to manage it - by playing with A$, NZ, and C$

When some hack official with the Japanese Govt. announces that they have "a strong Yen policy" and "exchange rates should be set by the market", I'm going to punch the eject button and bail out immediately.

[dbarberic]

Re: Delays in Funds transfers, bank payments?

Jack Crooks says Yen is a screaming medium term buy. Likes Swiss Franc too. I just signed up for his currency ETF service but have not actually bought anything there yet. He says by executing maybe a dozen timing trades a year he can (I infer) generate 40% annual returns with fairly low risk.

Anyone have any input on that or about his currency options as well? The non-options currency ETF, with Crook's timing expertise, looks very good risk-adjusted.

And for Outback Oracle, wondering what anyone sees in the Aussie dollar, Crooks seems to think it's got lot's of upside in years ahead, after an overdue big correction.

I'm interested in any comments abot Crook's currency ETF timing service if anyone knows.

I don't know how your going to make 40% gains in currency ETFs alone without the use of leverage. Seems like something is missing out.

[lobodelmar]

Re: Delays in Funds transfers, bank payments?

Is anyone experiencing inordinate delays in the clearing of large funds transfers? Some by two or three days?

I have been wondering about this, but I figured it was just another way banks are sticking it to you. I keep my cash in an online savings account for the most part, and every time I transfer cash it takes 3 business days, even though the money is "gone" from the tranferring account the next day...I figure they are making money on the 2-day float and there is not much you can do about it.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Delays in Funds transfers, bank payments?

I have been wondering about this, but I figured it was just another way banks are sticking it to you. I keep my cash in an online savings account for the most part, and every time I transfer cash it takes 3 business days, even though the money is "gone" from the tranferring account the next day...I figure they are making money on the 2-day float and there is not much you can do about it.

I had something like that. Sea Wolf, 10 years or so ago when I still had a bank. I told the bank, it had my money because my computer-linked brokerage account showed the money had been removed from my brokerage. The guy checked and said, "yes, okay, you can get your money."

The answer to this shit with banks for me has been not to have a bank. Don't do any busy with a bank. I handle all my business (which is all just personal stuff) through my brokerage account, and I did not accept Schwab's invitation to put my brokerage account cash into its "bank."

Unless one has a business, I don't know why one would choose to have a bank account, assuming one can have a brokerage account.

[krakknisse]

Re: Delays in Funds transfers, bank payments?

Bank transfer limits and currency regulations seem more likely by the day with rumors of central bank intervention. I haven't seen any new posts on bank transfer limits. I found two stories from November here:
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/fo...sage464137/pg1

Anyway - on Transfer # 2 above, I entered the data for the ACH transaction and all was well - seemingly. I punch in the security code one final time (the last step to confirm the details before it's locked in and processed) and then I got a confirmation code. HOWEVER on the CONFIRMATION CODE SCREEN, I had a NOTICE that I'd never seen before. It said: HSBC MAY OR MAY NOT PROCESS THIS TRANSFER ON THE DATE/TIME SELECTED DUE TO PENDING FEDERAL CURRENCY RESTRICTIONS. CONTACT THE BENEFICIARY OF YOUR TRANSFER TO CONFIRM POSTING OF THE FUNDS BEFORE DISBURSEMENT!

And anotherone here: http://jsmineset.com/

I just went to make a routine on-line transfer of funds from my savings account to my checking account this morning and got this notice. It is the first time I have ever seen a notice like this. I might be wrong, but it looks like the federal "regulators" have come up with another rule to try to limit more runs on banks. They must really be getting nervous. From my online banking account this morning: "We are required by federal regulations to monitor savings and money market account withdrawal activity and limit third-party or pre-authorized transfers to six per month. This includes transfers made by personal computer (online), telephone, or from overdraft protection. Of these six transfers allowed per month, no more than three may be made by check or draft. If transactions continue to exceed these limits, the law requires us to close savings accounts and transfer funds to a non-interest bearing checking account. Please note that money market accounts will not be closed, but converted to a non-interest bearing checking account and a fee may be charged when transaction limits are exceeded. If you have any questions, please call the 1-800 telephone number printed on your banking statement." All I can say is... May [we all] live in interesting times.