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RE: Locked, Loaded & Flippin' Out

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  • RE: Locked, Loaded & Flippin' Out

    Flipping activity is getting so out of hand that you can practically see which properties are going to end up as flips right when they hit the market. Some of the hottest neighborhoods in Los Angeles are those that attract the hipster crowd. We’ve featured flippers in Silver Lake and today we will feature a home that just hit the market in Eagle Rock, another bastion for flippers and hipsters alike. The rush to flip is bringing back some fond memories.

    What is making this market even more dramatic is the drastically low inventory and the renewed belief that housing prices only go up. In fact in a recent survey, missing out on future home gains is the top concern, not our ridiculously high debt, or massively indebted youth, or even an older generation that will cause a rise in healthcare expenses. No sir! The real concern is about missing out on those juicy gains on hipster neighborhoods! Today we’ll pick out a home that is still for sale in Eagle Rock but you can rest assured that it will go under as a flip shortly.

    Hipster neighborhoods reign supreme

    8 out of 10 of the hottest real estate areas are found in California. Take a look at this:



    What does the above tell us? A massive drop in listings, a big jump in sales, and prices are going gangbusters. You’ll notice that Eagle Rock makes the list at number four. Listings are down by 54 percent, sales are up by 44 percent, and price is up by 11 percent. The above chart highlights trends for 2012. This shrinking inventory is more exaggerated in California but nationwide we see a similar pattern:



    That is a massive unprecedented decline in inventory. Why is this occurring? First, you have the expectation now that home prices will only go up:



    Next, you have banks continuing their leakage of distressed inventory. We’ve also highlighted that the more expensive the neighborhood, the more likely you can buy time with your home in the foreclosure pipeline. That is the current backdrop of our housing market. So let us examine Eagle Rock much more deeply since this area seems to be a magnet for the hipster aficionados.

    Eagle Rock flipper candidate


    4924 Wiota St, Eagle Rock, CA 90041
    Bedrooms: 3 beds
    Bathrooms: 2 baths
    Single Family: 1,162 sq ft
    Lot: 7,840 sq ft
    Year Built: 1912

    This home hit the MLS on January 23, only a couple of days ago. So why is this a candidate for a flip? Can it be the awesome photos of garbage bins in the back?




    Or would you rather see it in the front?



    The two main reasons this home is a prime candidate for a flip is that it is in a flipper neighborhood and the current listing price is $329,900. Given the current market, it is easy to see that this home will sell for higher than this. Add a little bookmark for this home and check back in the middle of the year and you can rest assured that it will be back on the market and the sale price will not be $329,900.

    It’ll be interesting to see who buys this home. My bet is that it will go to an all cash investor and flipper. This home has hipster rescue written all over it. Now how wealthy is this neighborhood? Scouring through tax data we find the average adjusted gross income to be $53,647 for this zip code. However like many of these flipper neighborhoods, the hipsters are taking over pushing prices up and leveraging up on flips with delicious low down mortgages courtesy of the Fed.
    Any guesses on what will be the winning bid on this place?

    http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/e...-rock-housing/

  • #2
    Re: Locked, Loaded & Flippin' Out

    Ya gotta loooove America! To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of the death of the California property bubble have been greatly exaggerated.

    Dynamic Resilience in action.

    Or is that Resilient Dynamism? Whatever...

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Locked, Loaded & Flippin' Out

      I have to be honest.

      I have absolutely no idea how/why this mess is repeating again so quickly.

      I honestly figured there would have been a longer interval until the next house flipping orgy.

      To me house flipping a number of years ago equated to picking up $100 bills in front of a fast moving steamroller.

      House flipping today seems like picking up $20 bills in front of an even faster moving steam roller moving downhill and picking up speed.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Locked, Loaded & Flippin' Out

        Originally posted by lakedaemonian View Post
        I have to be honest.

        I have absolutely no idea how/why this mess is repeating again so quickly.

        I honestly figured there would have been a longer interval until the next house flipping orgy.
        There are trillions upon trillions of QE dollars sloshing about in the system thanks to the Federal Reserve's desperate bid to reflate the housing bubble. There are further billions (trillions?) of dollars being laundered in the U.S. real estate markets.

        I am thoroughly disgusted by the remergence of housing bubble behavior but I'm not surprised. This is exactly the behavior that is desired and being encouraged.

        I'm of the opinion that Bernanke and the banks want a redux of the housing bubble. It gives them the perfect opportunity to unload all of the garbage on their balance sheets at par or better to the public. Once they manage to dump all of that garbage onto private investors, Bernanke will finally drain the markets of all the excess liquidity and then the stagecoach will turn back into a pumpkin.

        With the garbage no longer the problem of the banks (including the Fed itself), Bernanke will shrug his shoulders and say that there's nothing he can do. There will be no bailouts for these bagholders.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Locked, Loaded & Flippin' Out

          But this is all part of the plan!

          Get everyone to refinance at lower interest rates; keep it there for a few years to let the echo baby boom buy homes, and job market recover, then when balance is achieved: lower the boom for massive inflation to make the debt deflate. As EJ says, the dollar goes to 60 and gold and oil go up. Of course the CBs don't worry about the effect on the half of the world population that massive food and energy inflation really punishes. These populations are younger; they can take it for a decade.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Locked, Loaded & Flippin' Out

            Originally posted by Milton Kuo View Post
            There are trillions upon trillions of QE dollars sloshing about in the system thanks to the Federal Reserve's desperate bid to reflate the housing bubble. There are further billions (trillions?) of dollars being laundered in the U.S. real estate markets.

            I am thoroughly disgusted by the remergence of housing bubble behavior but I'm not surprised. This is exactly the behavior that is desired and being encouraged.

            I'm of the opinion that Bernanke and the banks want a redux of the housing bubble. It gives them the perfect opportunity to unload all of the garbage on their balance sheets at par or better to the public. Once they manage to dump all of that garbage onto private investors, Bernanke will finally drain the markets of all the excess liquidity and then the stagecoach will turn back into a pumpkin.

            With the garbage no longer the problem of the banks (including the Fed itself), Bernanke will shrug his shoulders and say that there's nothing he can do. There will be no bailouts for these bagholders.
            In maybe an over simplistic sense, would this be part of the process EJ described as a ball bouncing down the stairs with this being a bounce "up" on the long-term trend down?

            I guess it relates to there not being much in the way of straight lines in nature.

            Comment

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