Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage

[c1ue]

Re: Robots are replacing humans

Look at it from an employers standpoint. Robots don't go on strike, become alcoholics, or steal from you. They don't cause HR problems in the workplace. Everything from health care to workers comp is a moot point. As soon as it becomes practical many employers will be happy to pay a premium for robot replacements just to rid themselves of the hassle and paperwork. Also, thanks to Obamacare, being under a certain headcount is rumored to be beneficial.

Robots also don't ever get better. They aren't adaptable in the least. They can't think of ways to improve their work process. They break down, and their parts go out of stock or get jacked up in price by monopoly suppliers. They stop working when the power goes out. Robots don't support the local economy by buying food, entertainment, durable/nondurable goods, and housing/transportation. You have to pay sales tax to employ one (!).

I'd also note that a big part of the employee expense is due to FIRE as well: retirement costs and health care.

In this same 30 years, people have become much more transient. They move more often. They don't stay with the same company very long. Friendships are more transient and superficial. Neighborhoods lack cohesion. Students don't pay attention to lectures because they are busy texting.

A popular fallacy. The census data don't support it.

Indeed. The data also notes the mobility shift starting in the mid-80s: the start of the modern FIRE era. Those were times that were tough for a lot of people; today in contrast we have a huge population which are effectively serfs tied to their homes, those 22% or so of mortgage holders who are negative equity.

[EJ]

Re: Robots are replacing humans

Today in contrast we have a huge population which are effectively serfs tied to their homes, those 22% or so of mortgage holders who are negative equity.

Who could have known?

New Road to Serfdom, May 2006

[GRG55]

Re: Robots are replacing humans

EJ,
you are not the one who has been replaced. Self driving cars will replace thousands of taxi drivers, truck drivers, etc. Even airline pilots are threatened. And the quality of book editing/proof reading has gone way down!

Restaurants will have wireless ordering system eliminating waiters. Even physicists have been unemployed by technology. There were these guys analyzing mass spectroscopy data. It was routine work, but you had to be good at math to do it. Then HP developed specialized software, and those guys were out the door. I'd be curious to know what happened to them.

The income disparity is not just due to FIREM, it is due to technology replacing low/mid skill jobs with electro-mechanical systems.

We hope those people will find other jobs. But this is just a hope, not a proven principle.
People are not infinitely adaptable. They have certain fixed traits, based on thier evolutionary history.

In this same 30 years, people have become much more transient. They move more often. They don't stay with the same company very long. Friendships are more transient and superficial. Neighborhoods lack cohesion. Students don't pay attention to lectures because they are busy texting.

Fewer families have the option of just one person working full time.

Some beliefs never change.

"In the early months of 1811 the first threatening letters from General Ned Ludd and the Army of Redressers, were sent to employers in Nottingham. Workers, upset by wage reductions and the use of unapprenticed workmen, began to break into factories at night to destroy the new machines that the employers were using. In a three-week period over two hundred stocking frames were destroyed. In March, 1811, several attacks were taking place every night and the Nottingham authorities had to enroll four hundred special constables to protect the factories...

...Luddism gradually spread to Yorkshire, Lancashire, Leicestershire and Derbyshire. In Yorkshire, croppers, a small and highly skilled group of cloth finishers, turned their anger on the new shearing frame that they feared would put them out of work. In February and March, 1812, factories were attacked by Luddites in Huddersfield, Halifax, Wakefield and Leeds...

...Throughout 1812 there were attacks on Lancashire cotton mills. Local handloom weavers objected to the introduction of power looms..."

Interestingly we don't seem to hear any reports from China about automated factories taking away jobs. Is that because Chinese workers view automation differently from their counterparts in the USA? Or because it just doesn't get reported?

[radon]

Re: Robots are replacing humans

Robots also don't ever get better. They aren't adaptable in the least. They can't think of ways to improve their work process. They break down,

So they are exactly like the workers they are meant to replace. Also robots won't sue their employer.

They stop working when the power goes out.

How many people do you know who can work without electricity? And Sales tax? You are seriously comparing sales tax to employment overhead?

I'd also note that a big part of the employee expense is due to FIRE as well: retirement costs and health care.

It hardly matters what caused it. Anyway, the real benefit is relief from staffing headaches and all the litigious nonsense that goes with it. Even if robots were more expensive than the equivalent employee it would be worth it to many on these grounds alone.

[flintlock]

Re: Robots are replacing humans

Its all about the numbers. Sure, there will always likely be jobs robots cannot do as well as humans. But there will be more and more they can do, often better. People lament the loss of manufacturing in the US but its not all China's fault, or bankers. A lot of jobs have simply been replaced by robots and other technology. They can certainly weld nicely. There is always a job gain in some areas and a loss in another when you are talking about a subject like this. No one argues that.

I'm not at all convinced a nation of creative thinkers, with all this time freed up by robots, will rise up and create more unheard of crap for us to make, sending us forward into a brave new world. I think despite gains in some areas, there will be a net loss in terms of the number of humans needed to work. I think the post WWII boom has ended, and it can no longer hide the fact that more people are becoming superfluous in economic terms. We can't continue to grow our way out of this one. We don't need more ranch hands, more farmers, more factory workers, carpenters, etc like we did in the post WWII boom. Sure we need better skilled workers. But certainly not more than we've lost in other fields. And what about those incapable of performing higher skilled work. Perhaps some of whom used to be the factory workers, etc? Or are we supposed to believe all of us are created equally and have the same capacity for learning new skills, despite IQ. Pure fantasy.

Rather than hope for the best, we should be thinking about how the world will handle those lower on the skill chain who will become hopelessly unemployable. Not always through their own fault. ( Seen college costs these days?) Perhaps the day will come when everyone just gets a check to cover basic life expenses. Its coming. To a degree its already here. Without massive wealth re-distribution the US would look like something out of a Dickens novel. People should not be surprised nor angry that the growth of the welfare state has paralleled the growth of technology.

I'm not anti-technology, just pointing out that its like a game of musical chairs. Unfortunately we tend to look at economic periods of 50-100 years as some sort of long term proof of success, when if fact its a blip in history terms. Take the robot/technology thing out another few generations, past your own life, and if you are honest, you will come to the same conclusions I have. People will not be as necessary in economic terms as they once were. That doesn't mean we should fire up the Soylent Green factory. It just means we need to look at other options in how we measure worth.

[flintlock]

Re: Robots are replacing humans

Those who are skilled and irreplaceable by machine, on the other hand, make more and more as incomes rise overall. Consider how much you have to pay your plumber or electrician. These used to be considered low wage, low skill professions.


In this same 30 years, people have become much more transient. They move more often. They don't stay with the same company very long. Friendships are more transient and superficial. Neighborhoods lack cohesion. Students don't pay attention to lectures because they are busy texting.


A popular fallacy. The census data don't support it.

Regardless of what data supports it, I completely agree with EJs observation here. People's relationships with each other and neighbors pale in comparison to the past in most areas, especially yuppie type suburbs. I have neighbors who it just kills to give you a wave back. You'd think I was asking to sleep with their wife or something. People see other people as obligations, unless of course they need something from you. Or they'd rather just be Facebook friends, not real friends! Not everyone is this way of course, but its becoming more common. How many of you know the first and last name of the neighbors on both sides of you? I used to.

The difference today is people have mobility. They may not move, but they know they can. In a world of 30 year mortgages, you aren't tied to the same spot as much as you used to be. And the world is bigger. Much easier to hide in anonymity. And you can hide indoors with all your TVs and gadgets to keep you occupied. I have neighbors two doors down for 10 years. I have no idea what they look like. Open garage door, leave. Open garage door, enter. They hardly step outside. People may go to church, but they go to the mega church 8 miles away, not the old community church were you were likely to see the same damn people each week. Changes your attitude when you know word will get around real quick if you do something wrong. I grew up in a small town. You couldn't get away with anything without word getting back to your parents.

[radon]

Re: Robots are replacing humans

No they won't. Hollywood special effects artists and video game makers have done much to skew perceptions on this. There's too much going on close up at high speed with low tolerances for cars on busy streets to be automated. Having driven high end cars with radar and infrared automated braking systems in the relatively controlled environment of a highway where everyone is going in the same direction, I can attest to several occasions when hurdling down a lane at 65 MPH toward a slow moving truck or car I had to override the system to make sure I wasn't betting my life on the fact that the sensors hadn't gotten dirty or were otherwise not functioning. They are known to fail.

What are your thoughts on this thing driving around? Will it be rejected because people won't trust an automated driver regardless of its operational record. Or is Google being wildly optimistic about the timeline. Does it never work correctly and is quietly shelved in a few years?

[GRG55]

Re: Robots are replacing humans

...I'm not at all convinced a nation of creative thinkers, with all this time freed up by robots, will rise up and create more unheard of crap for us to make, sending us forward into a brave new world. I think despite gains in some areas, there will be a net loss in terms of the number of humans needed to work...

Nah. It'll all be fixed with the "services economy".

Back when I was a kid my father made me cut the grass. Now we hire a "lawn service". My oldest brother taught me how to mess around with cars...the first lesson was how to change the oil. Now I just drive up to a Jiffy-Lube and don't get my hands dirty (most of the time). Used to be we worked off the stress of the day with a stroll in the evening, or some gardening, but now we hire a yoga instructor (after purchasing the obligatory Lululemon outfit). And how about all those dog-walking services that seem to be springing up everywhere.

Hell, we can't even make our own java any more...now we need a "trained Barista" to serve us the morning designer-coffee jolt at a Starbucks counter.

The economy is in no trouble whatsoever. We just need to continue to get creatively lazy and there should be no shortage of new jobs to do all the things we are seemingly incapable of doing for ourselves any longer. :-)

[jiimbergin]

Re: Robots are replacing humans

Regardless of what data supports it, I completely agree with EJs observation here. People's relationships with each other and neighbors pale in comparison to the past in most areas, especially yuppie type suburbs. I have neighbors who it just kills to give you a wave back. You'd think I was asking to sleep with their wife or something. People see other people as obligations, unless of course they need something from you. Or they'd rather just be Facebook friends, not real friends! Not everyone is this way of course, but its becoming more common. How many of you know the first and last name of the neighbors on both sides of you? I used to.

The difference today is people have mobility. They may not move, but they know they can. In a world of 30 year mortgages, you aren't tied to the same spot as much as you used to be. And the world is bigger. Much easier to hide in anonymity. And you can hide indoors with all your TVs and gadgets to keep you occupied. I have neighbors two doors down for 10 years. I have no idea what they look like. Open garage door, leave. Open garage door, enter. They hardly step outside. People may go to church, but they go to the mega church 8 miles away, not the old community church were you were likely to see the same damn people each week. Changes your attitude when you know word will get around real quick if you do something wrong. I grew up in a small town. You couldn't get away with anything without word getting back to your parents.

Well, much of what you say is just the opposite here in Hickory NC. It is true that people are not outside as much as they once were, but most of the rest of what you say is not true here.

[EJ]

Re: Robots are replacing humans

What are your thoughts on this thing driving around? Will it be rejected because people won't trust an automated driver regardless of its operational record. Or is Google being wildly optimistic about the timeline. Does it never work correctly and is quietly shelved in a few years?

After reading 1,000+ business plans since the late 1990s and doing due diligence on 100s of companies, I've developed a tendency to look for the fatal flaw in the value proposition, if any, for very new product idea I encounter.

The media, especially on the west coast where TED Talk mentality runs deep, covers the goggle self-driving car as, "Gee whizz! Autopilot for cars!"

The fine print says:

"Our cars are never unmanned. We always have a trained safety driver behind the wheel who can take over as easily as one disengages cruise control. And we also have a trained software operator in the passenger seat to monitor the software. Any test begins by sending out a driver in a conventionally driven car to map the route and road conditions. By mapping features like lane markers and traffic signs, the software in the car becomes familiar with the environment and its characteristics in advance. And we’ve briefed local police on our work."

"To provide the best experience we can, we’ll need to master snow-covered roadways, interpret temporary construction signals and handle other tricky situations that many drivers encounter."

I believe that these cars will work under carefully controlled conditions:

- No obstacles appear between the time the route is mapped and the time the car takes the route
- No snow or fog or other interference with sensors
- No sudden, unexpected moves by other drivers

As these conditions can occur at any time, the driver has pay attention at all times to what the car is doing and to conditions around the car and be prepared to take control.

What's the value proposition of this technology again? I thought it was to free up the driver to do other things. Sounds to me like the driver is busy making sure the sensors, software, and control systems don't crash the car.

[Polish_Silver]

People are not Einstein

you are not the one who has been replaced. Self driving cars will replace thousands of taxi drivers, truck drivers, etc.

No they won't. Hollywood special effects artists and video game makers have done much to skew perceptions on this.

Let's review this one in 10 years.

That is a process that has been going on for 100s of years. Since the war, automation has reduced work hours and raised incomes.

And it has been more and more difficult for those at the bottom to support themselves and families.

As recently as 1982, a person with basic literacy could work for Ford and earn as much as a college educated person. Those types of high pay, low literacy jobs are getting more and more scarce.

And then we wonder why 40% of the population is on food stamps. Fully 1/3 of my high school freshman class dropped out. Where do you think those people are working? And it was not exactly the toughest school on earth.

I hear ads on the radio for production technicians at Lear, Standard Motor and other companies. Do you think they take high school drop outs?


Your Fridge person is a highly competent person who has adapted to language barrier. Do you think everyone can fix a fridge?

There are a number of complex reasons why this happened, but I think a key driver since the beginning of the FIRE Economy era in the early 1980s is that rising housing, insurance, health care, education, and attendant debt repayment costs ate into incomes to an extend that a second wage earner was needed to maintain household living standards.

Definitely agree with that part.

[Polish_Silver]

humans vs self driving cars

I believe that these cars will work under carefully controlled conditions:
Reply With Quote
- No obstacles appear between the time the route is mapped and the time the car takes the route
- No snow or fog or other interference with sensors
- No sudden, unexpected moves by other drivers

Humans have problems with all these situations.

The self driving cars will communicate with each other--if one has to stop, all the those behind it will slow down accordingly.

[GRG55]

Re: Robots are replacing humans

...Sounds to me like the driver is busy making sure the sensors, software, and control systems don't crash the car.

Which is mostly what the "flight systems manager" (the pilot) is doing in the cockpit of a modern commercial or bizjet...intervening as needed when the set-points, sensors or software fail to keep the airplane within the design flight envelope. When they are successful, which is the overwhelming number of times, we never hear about it. There must be thousands upon thousands of these every day in the sky above us. When they aren't successful, such as Turkish Air Flt 1951 (radio altimeter/autothrottles) or Air France 447, it makes for a spectacular news story with the sub-theme "dangers of technology" running through it.

Contrary to the observation of another iTuliper earlier on this thread, there is no chance that airline (or corporate) pilots are an endangered species from technology. PCO? Well, that's another matter...

[Polish_Silver]

Planes on Autopilot

Planes can land on auto pilot. And they do it when visibility is the worst.

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/in...9200834AABP70V

[EJ]

Re: Robots are replacing humans

Contrary to the observation of another iTuliper earlier on this thread, there is no chance that airline (or corporate) pilots are an endangered species from technology. PCO? Well, that's another matter...

To reinforce your point, on a flight back to Boston we're coming in for a landing at Logan. Seconds before the familiar screech of tires hitting the runway the plane suddenly accelerates, climbs and banks hard to the right.

Minutes later the pilot comes on the air to explain that just as the plane was landing the beacon on the end of the runway went out. Turns out the reason was a general power failure at the airport, but the cause could have been more sinister.

Wonder what a computer would have decided to do in that split second?