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Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage

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  • Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage

    No Benefits, Part-Time Job, Because He's Still Much Cheaper; Fed Cannot Win a Fight Against RobotsThe federal Minimum wage in the US is $7.25 per hour. Ten states have higher minimum wages with Rhode Island clocking in 50 cents higher at $7.75.
    Costs to the employer are higher of course, even if the employer ducks benefits by using part-time workers.
    For starters, employer contributions to Social Security are 6.2% of hourly wages which adds another 45 cents to employer costs. That brings employer costs up to $7.95 per hour minimum, not counting training costs, vacation (if any), sick-time disruptions, and other such costs.
    Of course, employers must also factor in the cost of Obamacare.
    Small businesses do not have to provide health-care, but under employer responsibility provisions of the affordable care act, businesses that employ more than 50 workers will pay a steep penalty in 2014 if they don't.
    Click on the preceding link to see a nice flow chart of the penalty process.
    What IF?
    What if companies, small or large, did not have to worry about Obamacare? What if they did not have to worry, about training, sick-leave disruptions and weather-related disruptions? What if companies only had to pay $3.00 per hour, rivaling wages in China?
    Meet Baxter
    Baxter - The Automation Robot
    MIT Technology Review discusses Baxter in Small Factories Give Baxter the Robot a Cautious Once-Over.
    Chris Budnick, head of Vanguard Plastics, a small injection-molding operation in Southington, Connecticut is considering the use of Baxter for one process that is not yet automated: stacking and packing textured, plastic cups, which Vanguard sells for 2 cents apiece to a medical company.
    It currently costs Budnick $9.00 an hour to have a staffer from a temporary agency to do the job.
    Budnick is now considering Baxter to replace that agency job.
    Let's tune in to the MIT story for additional details about Baxter and the job Baxter will replace.
    Baxter was conceived by Rodney Brooks, the Australian roboticist and artificial-intelligence expert who left MIT to build a $22,000 humanoid robot that can easily be programmed to do simple jobs that have never been automated before.

    Brooks's company, Rethink Robotics, says the robot will spark a "renaissance" in American manufacturing by helping small companies compete against low-wage offshore labor. Baxter will do that by accelerating a trend of factory efficiency that's eliminated more jobs in the U.S. than overseas competition has. Of the approximately 5.8 million manufacturing jobs the U.S. lost between 2000 and 2010, according to McKinsey Global Institute, two-thirds were lost because of higher productivity and only 20 percent moved to places like China, Mexico, or Thailand.

    The ultimate goal is for robots like Baxter to take over more complex tasks, such as fitting together parts on an electronics assembly line. "A couple more ticks of Moore's Law and you've got automation that works more cheaply than Chinese labor does," Andrew McAfee, an MIT researcher, predicted last year at a conference in Tucson, Arizona, where Baxter was discussed.

    Baxter comes with two arms, a vision system, and 360° sonar (which it uses to detect people nearby), but for the cup-stacking job it will also need a specially designed gripper, which Rethink is now developing. Rethink is also developing software so that the robot can communicate with other machines, such as a conveyor belt, telling it to move forward or stop.

    So how important will Baxter really be to Vanguard? Budnick couches his answer in baseball terminology. "Baxter is a potential double," he says. "Maybe a home run if it can use both its arms."

    60 Minutes Discusses Baxter

    Inquiring minds are listening to a 13 minute video on 60 Minutes that discusses "The Age of Robots", and Baxter.
    Link if video does not play: 60 Minutes on Robots
    Please play the video. It's well worth your time.
    60 Minutes Quotes and Idea
    • Percentage of Americans with jobs is at a 20-year low
    • Routine middle-skill jobs are being eliminated fastest
    • Software robots and physical robots replace wanted jobs
    • There are heavily automated warehouses where there are no human workers, right now
    • "You'd think the robots would run into each other but it never happens"
    • One robot saves 1.5 people
    • New Categories of jobs are in the sights of automation
    • eDiscovery replaces legal jobs
    • US manufacturing is making a comeback, but without the jobs
    • Investment in robots has increased 30% since the recession ended
    • Baxter costs $22,000 and can be trained in a matter of minutes
    • Baxter costs $22,000 and lasts 6,500 hours, about $3.40 per hour
    • Buying a robot is like hiring a Chinese worker
    • "Workers in China and India are more in the bulls-eye of the automation tidal-wave than the American worker"
    • Even if manufacturing returns to the US most of the jobs will go to robots
    • "Work as we currently think of it will be largely done by machines"
    • What people will do is the $64,000 question

    Is this as much of a distopian game changer as it looks like? Is this technology's "game over" card to both central banks and the severely destitute across the developed world? Or is this the herald of a Third Industrial Revolution that brings an end to the world economy's lethargic streak?
    "It's not the end of the world, but you can see it from here." - Deus Ex HR

  • #2
    Re: Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage

    here is thel link to the full article
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-get-your.html

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    • #3
      Re: Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage

      If these really get produced and employed in masses, it might spell the doom of the Chinese growth story. What does China really have to offer apart from cheap manpower? In Western countries the problem will mainly be a distributional one: it is a certain subset of people that get shafted while the economy as a whole benefits. For China it's a different story.
      "It's not the end of the world, but you can see it from here." - Deus Ex HR

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage

        Originally posted by NCR85 View Post
        If these really get produced and employed in masses, it might spell the doom of the Chinese growth story. What does China really have to offer apart from cheap manpower? In Western countries the problem will mainly be a distributional one: it is a certain subset of people that get shafted while the economy as a whole benefits. For China it's a different story.
        It's all a matter of pricing. How expensive is the robot? Even if it puts China under, will it put Vietnam under? Cambodia? Africa?

        So long as there is slave/near-slave labor and cheap transport, doing things the "old-fashioned" way will be economically viable.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage

          The article cites these figures:
          • Baxter costs $22,000 and can be trained in a matter of minutes
          • Baxter costs $22,000 and lasts 6,500 hours, about $3.40 per hour


          And that doesn't factor in all the other numerous bonuses to having a non-human laborer.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage

            Robby the Robot was a terrific bartender Robots won't be limited to manufacturing. They could operate in hazardous occupations, in many service jobs, and especially in the military (shades of Terminator).

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robby_the_Robot

            http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0049223/

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forbidden_Planet

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            • #7
              Re: Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage

              Originally posted by BadJuju View Post
              The article cites these figures:
              • Baxter costs $22,000 and can be trained in a matter of minutes
              • Baxter costs $22,000 and lasts 6,500 hours, about $3.40 per hour
              And that doesn't factor in all the other numerous bonuses to having a non-human laborer.
              $3.40/hr = pretty close to one American - half of one anyways.
              $3.40/hr > one chinese worker + transportation costs for many light goods.

              If they cut it by 60-70% in cost, it might be unstoppable. But remember, people are still much more adaptable. When someone wants to cut corners and do things the wrong way, there's nothing like having a good ol' fashioned employee.



              I think the robot revolution's still a way off - at least in human interaction jobs and manufacturing jobs where the process changes quickly. They have their place in automation in the manufacturing process, but they're never actually as flexible as their purveyors portray them.

              This line of logic is particularly true in China and other low-wage, cut-corners, break-laws countries.

              Going back to the article - they talk about Star Wars when they talk about robots.

              They seem to forget that even in Star Wars, with actual smart robots abundant and cheap, there was slave labor.
              Last edited by dcarrigg; January 23, 2013, 06:34 AM.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage

                Is energy a consideration in any of this? Energy needed to mass manufacture robots, run robots, etc. Is it all offset by the energy needs of people? Is this part of the equation?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage

                  Originally posted by NCR85 View Post
                  [/FONT][/COLOR][/LIST]
                  Is this as much of a distopian game changer as it looks like? Is this technology's "game over" card to both central banks and the severely destitute across the developed world? Or is this the herald of a Third Industrial Revolution that brings an end to the world economy's lethargic streak?
                  [/INDENT]
                  My bet is on the latter. I'm just wondering if it's not going to be the Asians that lead it though.

                  The "woe is me" whining about a changing world seems overdone sometimes. Let's use the example of the guy (or gal!) down at the local dealership who maintains our cars. Is there anyone on this forum that does not think that person is better trained and more capable than his (or her) counterpart 50 years ago? Do any of us seriously believe a high school drop-out can make a career in auto mechanics any more?

                  A petroleum drilling rig today is a dramatically different beast from 25 years ago. The change in the levels of automation would have been unimaginable 50 years ago. Drillers in command centres using joysticks to control measure-while-drilling directional bits at the end of mile long horizontal sections deep in the earth. These guys are far more skilled and far better paid than their oil-saturated-coveralls counterparts not that many years ago.

                  First you let the public education system go for shzt.
                  Then you take all the resulting unemployable young people with no education or skills, put them on the government payroll and give them a uniform.
                  Next start yet another stupid foreign war, issue those uniforms a gun and a one-way ticket to an overseas jungle or desert - out of sight, out of mind, youth unemployment problem solved yet again.
                  But when that strategy ultimately becomes unsustainable, which is what is happening to the USA now, the gap in skills and the deficiencies in education among the population are much more difficult to ignore.
                  Admittedly this is an oversimplification to make the point.

                  The problem isn't robots taking jobs. The problem is far too many working age people with education and skills suitable only for a 1960s vintage economy...
                  Last edited by GRG55; January 23, 2013, 09:51 AM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage

                    That's nothing. I've seen some CEOs and VPs in my day that could be replaced by a pair of dice and a magic 8 ball.






                    http://www.nytimes.com/1997/07/21/bu...ef=johnrwalter
                    Last edited by LorenS; January 23, 2013, 09:39 AM. Reason: Added an example

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage

                      Originally posted by LorenS View Post
                      That's nothing. I've seen some CEOs and VPs in my day that could be replaced by a pair of dice and a magic 8 ball.
                      Ditto the TBTFs'CEOs, sans magic 8 ball.



                      Speaking of Forbidden Planet, is there a chance those fashions will return along with the robots



                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage

                        Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                        My bet is on the latter. I'm just wondering if it's not going to be the Asians that lead it though.
                        ABB's robot division has moved HQ to China as I recall.


                        In general, anything that can be automated will be automated, that I realized long ago while working in the IT salt mines.

                        Here is a Swedish(!) SciFi piece from 1878(!) set in 2378 in which guvm'nt bureaucracy has been replaced by machinery.
                        Very entertaining, lots of other good futuristic stuff, like air-bicycles and scent pianos.
                        But note that the bankers are still in full control!

                        Oxygen and Aromasia

                        by Claës Lundin
                        translated by Bertil Falk


                        Chapter 12: New Joint Stock Companies
                        Part 4: Bureaucracy


                        “I fear that I have to go home and see to it that the machines of my department are properly greased,” said the chief machinist. “We have a cabinet meeting tomorrow. The chief traffic director is very particular and won’t tolerate that one single gear-wheel squeaks when the Government machinery starts up.”

                        “Oh, have another glass of water,” the polite host invited. “The engine-men can see to it that everything is well greased.”

                        The traffic director, or as he was called in the past, the prime minister or state minister, was a fairly rigorous superior. He kept a tight hand on the chief machinists, who on their part kept a close check on the machinists or, as they were once called, the deputy assistants and head of divisions.

                        “I think that’s an insufferably bureaucratic machinery,” the bank director said. “It could undoubtedly be much simplified.”

                        “True, true,” many agreed. “The reorganization of the civil service departments has been needed.”

                        The traffic machinist was not at all of that opinion. He did not want any other change than a cost-of-living allowance every year, or rather every half year.
                        “With the progress the mechanics have made in recent years,” the bank director said, “we don’t really need so many machinists. Not to mention that the traffic director has too many directors, ministers or whatever they’re called.

                        “With our present, very well developed parliament, which is what actually works, they’re totally uncalled for. It’s preposterous that every department and machinery division has so many chief machinists and machinists.”

                        “Don’t forget the greasers!” someone reminded.

                        “Oh yes, there are greasers, too!” the host added. “It’s as if we lived five hundred years ago. These things have to be changed. What do you think of turning the whole mechanics of parliament into a joint-stock company?”

                        “A good proposal!”

                        “And perfect the machines but get rid of many of the machinists. If they could replace the assistant clerks and the assistant secretaries of the past with machines, then it must be possible to take another step and do away with the machinist-deputy assistant undersecretaries and let the present chief machinists each run a machinery division, perhaps assisted by the greasers.”

                        “But such a joint-stock company cannot come about without a decision by parliament.”

                        “Well, there must be some parliamentarian who would take upon himself to introduce the proposal into the big machine of motions and bills and then see to it that the drafting- and voting machine does its work. We can float the company here and now. It’s never harmful to float a company.”

                        Within ten minutes they had floated another company, the purpose of which was to try to turn into a joint-stock company the mechanics of government, as well as what used to be called administrative departments.



                        Last edited by cobben; January 23, 2013, 01:47 PM.
                        Justice is the cornerstone of the world

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage

                          Alpha the Custom Burger Flipping Robot

                          Here is a similar story in the service industry to consider: Robot Serves Up 360 Hamburgers Per Hour
                          Alpha machine from Momentum Machines cooks up a tasty burger with all the fixins. And it does it with such quality and efficiency it’ll produce “gourmet quality burgers at fast food prices.”

                          With a conveyor belt-type system the burgers are freshly ground, shaped and grilled to the customer’s liking. And only when the burger’s finished cooking does Alpha slice the tomatoes and pickles and place them on the burger as fresh as can be. Finally, the machine wraps the burger up for serving.

                          Alpha churns out a painless 360 hamburgers per hour. Saving money with Alpha is pretty easy to imagine. You don’t even need cashiers or servers. Customers could just punch in their order, pay, and wait at a dispensing window.

                          For their next model Momentum Machines plans on adding a custom meat grinding feature so it can mix different meats – 1/3 pork, 2/3 bison sounds like a tasty combo – in the same burger. They’ll also give it gourmet cooking abilities that seasoned chefs use such as charring the burger while retaining its juiciness.

                          The company plans on launching the first ever restaurant chain with a cook staff made entirely of robots. But not only might we soon find Alpha’s creations at local burger joints, but the company is also targeting convenience stores, food trucks, and somehow even vending machines.


                          Robot Wars in China


                          China Daily reports Chinese robot wars set to erupt
                          Recent research conducted by the consultancy Ernst & Young LLP suggests that the average annual labor cost per worker rose to more than 40,000 yuan ($6,400) in 2011, from less than 25,000 yuan five years ago.

                          Given the context, it's easy to calculate the tradeoffs of getting a robot. "In fact, industrial robots are already cheaper than workers in China's eastern regions," said Wang Tianmiao, who heads the expert panel of robot technology under the State High-Tech Development Plan.

                          Wang said a typical industrial robot costs around 300,000 yuan and has annual maintenance costs of 20,000 yuan. The total layout of 500,000 yuan over 10 years is considerably less than that for a 6,000-yuan-a-month technician, and robots can work three times more efficiently.


                          Technology Kills Middle-Class Jobs


                          Yahoo! News reports Recession, tech kill middle-class jobs.
                          Five years after the start of the Great Recession, the toll is terrifyingly clear: Millions of middle-class jobs have been lost in developed countries the world over.

                          And the situation is even worse than it appears.

                          Most of the jobs will never return, and millions more are likely to vanish as well, say experts who study the labor market. What's more, these jobs aren't just being lost to China and other developing countries, and they aren't just factory work. Increasingly, jobs are disappearing in the service sector, home to two-thirds of all workers.

                          They're being obliterated by technology.

                          Year after year, the software that runs computers and an array of other machines and devices becomes more sophisticated and powerful and capable of doing more efficiently tasks that humans have always done. For decades, science fiction warned of a future when we would be architects of our own obsolescence, replaced by our machines; an Associated Press analysis finds that the future has arrived.

                          "There's no sector of the economy that's going to get a pass," says Martin Ford, who runs a software company and wrote "The Lights in the Tunnel," a book predicting widespread job losses. "It's everywhere."

                          The numbers startle even labor economists. In the United States, half the 7.5 million jobs lost during the Great Recession were in industries that pay middle-class wages, ranging from $38,000 to $68,000. But only 2 percent of the 3.5 million jobs gained since the recession ended in June 2009 are in midpay industries. Nearly 70 percent are in low-pay industries, 29 percent in industries that pay well.

                          Experts warn that this "hollowing out" of the middle-class workforce is far from over. They predict the loss of millions more jobs as technology becomes even more sophisticated and reaches deeper into our lives.

                          The most vulnerable workers are doing repetitive tasks that programmers can write software for — an accountant checking a list of numbers, an office manager filing forms, a paralegal reviewing documents for key words to help in a case. As software becomes even more sophisticated, victims are expected to include those who juggle tasks, such as supervisors and managers — workers who thought they were protected by a college degree.
                          Seemingly, there is no end to this. Software robots handle voice activated queries and mechanical robots replace humans in manufacturing.

                          If a job is repetitive and programmable, a robot is out to get it. That even includes minimum wage jobs in manufacturing and in food service.


                          Robot Wars in China; Bugger Flipping Robots Serve 360 Gourmet Burgers and Hour

                          http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-flipping.html
                          "It's not the end of the world, but you can see it from here." - Deus Ex HR

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage

                            Originally posted by NCR85 View Post


                            Robot Wars in China; Bugger Flipping Robots Serve 360 Gourmet Burgers and Hour

                            http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-flipping.html
                            Imagine...Billions of burgers, every one of them exactly the same, even more uniform and identical to each other than a Big Mac. Frightening.

                            What next? Perfectly uniform fried chicken? Or millions of dimensionally exact, perfectly round pizzas?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Meet "Baxter" the Robot Out to Get Your Minimum-Wage

                              Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
                              Imagine...Billions of burgers, every one of them exactly the same, even more uniform and identical to each other than a Big Mac. Frightening.

                              What next? Perfectly uniform fried chicken? Or millions of dimensionally exact, perfectly round pizzas?
                              Maybe a little bearing grease thrown in too (come to think of it that might be better than Staph Aureus).

                              Might work well in bars - uniformly water-downed drinks.

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