Weisenthal: Massive Outbreak Of Bullishness Is Starting To Get Crazy

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Weisenthal: Massive Outbreak Of Bullishness Is Starting To Get Crazy

S&P500 just hit 1500.

[GRG55]

Re: Weisenthal: Massive Outbreak Of Bullishness Is Starting To Get Crazy

and it will continue on UP, just like it has most years, peaking just before the summer drive-athons get planned - and we can almost bet on same mumblings out of the oval office about 'tapping the strategic reserves' or more yammering about 'windfall profits' - that will cause a price drop - just like the prev couple years in particular - and by july4, the prices will go shooting back up again, just as the herd hits the road to dizzyland....

guess the only question is: how to profit from this 'phenom' vs getting gouged by it?

we're back upto/over 4bux out here, with costco about 15-20cents less, with a flattening of price differentials tween the islands (had been as much as 10% spread from cheapest to most exp) - methinks we'll see near 5bux by may this year..
altho somewhat strange, the airlines are charging the lowest prices seen in awhile, for outer isle flts (if one can book a week or so in advance, woe be you if ya dont and it happens to be a busy wknd...)

The airlines sell a perishable product...it's just like a greengrocer business. Limited shelf life produce. Any seat that is empty when the plane leaves the ground is a permanent loss (like spoiled lettuce that has to be thrown out). That means that pricing tends to be discounted for those that book early and those that are willing to be on standby so they can put bums in the empty seats just before the gate closes.

[GRG55]

Re: Weisenthal: Massive Outbreak Of Bullishness Is Starting To Get Crazy

Aka the Fed is going to pull the punchbowl away...

That is not what I wrote. Not increasing reflation efforts is not the same as contracting stimulus (aka taking away the punchbowl). The is no chance the Fed is going to start to withdraw stimulus. It has repeatedly said as much. For now, however, it would appear the Fed just isn't going to expand it any further either.

[touchring]

Re: Weisenthal: Massive Outbreak Of Bullishness Is Starting To Get Crazy

Life maybe hard for the working guys, but have you considered the trillions that Bernanke printed and sent to Asia? That money is now looking for a place. With all the real estate curbs in China, Hong Kong and Singapore, the US is now looking like an attractive destination.

I think both the cliff avoidance, and the debt ceiling delay both point to more debt/money flowing around in the system lifting all ships.
Japan has joined the print club too.

I think the cliff deal is going to hurt the private economy. My paycheck went down pretty good. i'm scrambling for ways to get more than $1500 cash back from the grab. I guess we will eat out less. I'm looking for a lower cost internet. I might also shop around for lower cost insurance. We aren't living high on the hog right now. There is not much blood left in the rock.

I noticed the cost of my health care is printed on my W2. I hope I don't have a cadallac plan and get taxed on that too.
Medical device tax kicks in. What is that on? If my mother has to buy a new walker does she pay the tax? (nice). And what about a new hip, heart valve pace maker etc that cost bukoo bucks. Will insurance pick the tax up or does that go directly to the patient?

Oil is up too, and so it the price at the pump. Maybe that will cool the mania.

[NCR85]

Re: Weisenthal: Massive Outbreak Of Bullishness Is Starting To Get Crazy

EJ also recently noted: "The stock market always -- always -- rallies into a recession."

"Another day, another gain for the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The Dow is riding a five-day winning streak, has risen in 10 of the last 11 sessions and is up 5.5% this month. That marks the best start to a new year since 1987 when it rose 10.84% during the first 16 trading days, according to WSJ Market Data Group.
1987, eh? Here’s hoping we don’t see other comparisons to ’87 come late October."

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2013...l/?mod=WSJBlog

[NCR85]

Re: Weisenthal: Massive Outbreak Of Bullishness Is Starting To Get Crazy



http://www.businessinsider.com/byron...-coming-2013-1

This seems to be one of the reasons for the rise of bullish sentiment: strong Januari gains historically predict a very strong yearly gain. Wall Street is betting on a repeat of this pattern.

Is Wall Street going long on leverage into a recession..?

[NCR85]

Re: Weisenthal: Massive Outbreak Of Bullishness Is Starting To Get Crazy

If the NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment was "off the charts" bullish in the high 80s, what is it now? The index rises to the unheard of level of 104.25, meaning the average respondent is now leveraged long. The most bearish manager is 60% net long - the most bullish position for the most bearish respondent ever.


The green line shows the close of the S&P 500 Total Return Index on the survey date. The purple line depicts a two-week moving average of the NAAIM managers’ responses.

http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/798991

Speak of the devil!!

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: Weisenthal: Massive Outbreak Of Bullishness Is Starting To Get Crazy

That is not what I wrote. Not increasing reflation efforts is not the same as contracting stimulus (aka taking away the punchbowl). The is no chance the Fed is going to start to withdraw stimulus. It has repeatedly said as much. For now, however, it would appear the Fed just isn't going to expand it any further either.

My statement was to mean they aren't increasing stimulus, because we know the market has already discounted the 85 bil in purchases until unemployment reaches 6.5%.

I should have written "taking away the future addition to the punchbowl.