ABC's Nightline as a contrarian indicator.

[medved]

Just saw a Nightline segment on the falling dollar. Finally, even ABC gets it. They even showed Jim Puplava expressing his (no surprise here) negative opinion of the greenback.

Is it time to sell my international bond funds and go long dollar?

m.

[c1ue]

Re: ABC's Nightline as a contrarian indicator.

Depends on the bonds in question.

Russian bonds have been doing well and are likely to continue to do well.

This is ironic given that these bonds were viewed as toxic waste as little as 1 year ago when compared with MBS' and CDO's...

While there will be a dollar bounce at some point, timing it will be damn difficult - especially since it will be a dead cat bounce.

[rzero]

Re: ABC's Nightline as a contrarian indicator.

This "contrarian indicator" stuff is fun to joke about, but it doesn't come close to being a practical strategy. What is the logic? Buy something as soon as there is negative coverage of it in the main stream media? In that case you should have bought 10 houses a year and a half ago. Blogger Mish suggested a dollar bottom almost three years ago with the help of this Newsweek cover. Sure, when the top of something is in, you can always find a headline that coincides with it (i.e. Time's "Home $weet Home"), but it doesn't work the other way around.

I do think that tops are often hit at maximum positive sentiment and bottoms are hit at maximum negative sentiment, but the challenge is knowing when the maximum has been reached.

[metalman]

Re: ABC's Nightline as a contrarian indicator.

This "contrarian indicator" stuff is fun to joke about, but it doesn't come close to being a practical strategy. What is the logic? Buy something as soon as there is negative coverage of it in the main stream media? In that case you should have bought 10 houses a year and a half ago. Blogger Mish suggested a dollar bottom almost three years ago with the help of this Newsweek cover. Sure, when the top of something is in, you can always find a headline that coincides with it (i.e. Time's "Home $weet Home"), but it doesn't work the other way around.

I do think that tops are often hit at maximum positive sentiment and bottoms are hit at maximum negative sentiment, but the challenge is knowing when the maximum has been reached.

wisdom, friend. we have a thread i like called too many dollar bears. says what you say.

and can't miss a chance to say something about my favorite knucklehead blogger mish! that's the 100 top or bottom he's called in something. i'd entertain you all with rant but i'm not in the mood.

[rabot10]

Re: ABC's Nightline as a contrarian indicator.

Not yet jmho

[Tulpen]

Re: ABC's Nightline as a contrarian indicator.

Just saw a Nightline segment on the falling dollar. Finally, even ABC gets it. They even showed Jim Puplava expressing his (no surprise here) negative opinion of the greenback.

Is it time to sell my international bond funds and go long dollar?

m.

Of course there is speculation on the dollar but I do not think that the dollar fall is driven by speculation. I think it is mostly driven by economics, so investor sentiment has really not much to do with it.

[Guest]

Re: ABC's Nightline as a contrarian indicator.

I wanna hear another Mish rant! :rolleyes:

[DemonD]

Re: ABC's Nightline as a contrarian indicator.

wisdom, friend. we have a thread i like called too many dollar bears. says what you say.

One of my most favorite quotes of all time is: "Just because he's paranoid it doesn't mean we're not out to get him." (This was a TV show of an FBI agent tracking an ecoterrorist who was paranoid about the government spying on him).

My correlary goes something likes this: "Just because everyone thinks it, it doesn't make it wrong."

Basically what it means is that just cuz everyone thinks the dollar sucks, it doesn't mean that it doesn't suck. itulip has been banging on the dollar and policies regarding the dollar for a long, long time, and many didn't follow that thinking; now many people do, and nothing has really fundamentally changed. So just because now many more people believe in what EJ puts out there, it doesn't mean that he is now wrong or should change his mind.

Of course oftentimes there can be a sentiment that is wrong, for example tech bubble, housing bubble, etc.

[GRG55]

Re: ABC's Nightline as a contrarian indicator.

wisdom, friend. we have a thread i like called too many dollar bears. says what you say.

and can't miss a chance to say something about my favorite knucklehead blogger mish! that's the 100 top or bottom he's called in something. i'd entertain you all with rant but i'm not in the mood.

Where's Dollargoinup when ya need him the most...:rolleyes:

[Guest]

Re: ABC's Nightline as a contrarian indicator.

GRG55 -

We still don't have a Dollargoinup. We've been interviewing for 3 weeks but candidates appear to be either losers, looneys, or they have bad breath. They were mostly no-shows the next day when they were supposed to come in for the one page multiple-answer admissions test.

We had a former Town Barker, a Sanitation Worker, a fellow who claimed he was a Circus Trapeze Artist, with his neck in a cast, a fleabitten old geezer in a tattered pinstripe suit who claimed he worked at some place called "the FED", a Groundhog from the FARMER's ALMANAC, a fallen Nun who claimed she used to be a Calvinist, and a Leper.

We offered the job to all of them but none showed up for work the following day - except the Leper, and he only showed up to inquire about the possibility of obtaining a bridge loan. He claimed he'd start work the next week but then never showed.

We're going to run the ad another week and if it doesn't pull something in that can fog a mirror and show up for the job we're planning to fold it into the night janitor's shift.