Arthur Berman Destroys All Of The Hype About America's Energy Boom

[NCR85]

Not everyone believes the U.S. is capable of becoming energy independent thanks to its shale oil and gas reserves, as the International Energy Association suggested recently.The math just doesn't work out, they say — America consumes too much.
But some are even more skeptical than that.
Arthur Berman, an oil analyst with Labyrinth Consulting Services, says the promise of America's shale reserves have been vastly overstated.
His main argument: shale is too expensive to drill, and shale wells usually don't last longer than a couple of years.
Last year, he laid out his case at a gathering of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas in Austin Texas.
With his permission, we've reproduced it here.

http://www.businessinsider.com/arthu...hinking-2013-1

Great set of charts and visualizations inside.

[shiny!]

Re: Arthur Berman Destroys All Of The Hype About America's Energy Boom

Those graphs paint a sobering picture. But didja see the next article, the next batch of graphs touting "Saudi America"?

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-p...#ixzz2IZOaBXcZ

"And the huge boom seems to just be getting started. Daily domestic production of
both oil and gas is expected to surge in the coming years, according to the
International Energy Agency"

*sigh*

[NCR85]

Re: Arthur Berman Destroys All Of The Hype About America's Energy Boom

That's the same International Energy Agency that back in mid 2012 stated in unambiguous terms "the era of cheap oil is over".

Now they're apparently 180 degrees turned. How does that happen? Where is their apology if this is what they now believe? Their explanation for having been so "wrong"?

Fishy.

[BadJuju]

Re: Arthur Berman Destroys All Of The Hype About America's Energy Boom

That's the same International Energy Agency that back in mid 2012 stated in unambiguous terms "the era of cheap oil is over".

Now they're apparently 180 degrees turned. How does that happen? Where is their apology if this is what they now believe? Their explanation for having been so "wrong"?

Fishy.

If they were simply arguing that the era of cheap oil is over, there is nothing fishy about also saying the USA could be become a net exporter as well. In fact, it is hedged on it because of the cost of the oil being developed in the US. I think it is entirely possible for the US to become self-sufficient in oil production, but only after a significant reduction in consumption. In this regard, I am very much aligned with EJ.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: Arthur Berman Destroys All Of The Hype About America's Energy Boom

If they were simply arguing that the era of cheap oil is over, there is nothing fishy about also saying the USA could be become a net exporter as well. In fact, it is hedged on it because of the cost of the oil being developed in the US. I think it is entirely possible for the US to become self-sufficient in oil production, but only after a significant reduction in consumption. In this regard, I am very much aligned with EJ.

But to become a net exporter?

[don]

Re: Arthur Berman Destroys All Of The Hype About America's Energy Boom

I think it is entirely possible for the US to become self-sufficient in oil production

with just a few minor adjustments and a little tinkering . . . .

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: Arthur Berman Destroys All Of The Hype About America's Energy Boom

I was there at his presentation and spoke to him afterwards.

He told me he thinks NatGas will average 4.25 in 2013.

[GRG55]

Re: Arthur Berman Destroys All Of The Hype About America's Energy Boom

That's the same International Energy Agency that back in mid 2012 stated in unambiguous terms "the era of cheap oil is over".

Now they're apparently 180 degrees turned. How does that happen? Where is their apology if this is what they now believe? Their explanation for having been so "wrong"?

Fishy.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...389#post243389

[btattoo]

Re: Arthur Berman Destroys All Of The Hype About America's Energy Boom

I was there at his presentation and spoke to him afterwards.

He told me he thinks NatGas will average 4.25 in 2013.

POZ - interesting. Thanks for sharing.

[BadJuju]

Re: Arthur Berman Destroys All Of The Hype About America's Energy Boom

But to become a net exporter?

I suppose that all depends on how far consumption drops.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: Arthur Berman Destroys All Of The Hype About America's Energy Boom

I suppose that all depends on how far consumption drops.

Never going to happen. Never.

[BadJuju]

Re: Arthur Berman Destroys All Of The Hype About America's Energy Boom

Never going to happen. Never.

What won't happen? A significant drop in consumption? PCO will necessitate it. And if it reaches a point where domestic production is higher than consumption, then exports will occur.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: Arthur Berman Destroys All Of The Hype About America's Energy Boom

Sorry, I mean the US being an exporter of Gas/Oil etc. Never going to happen. Not in a PCO world where conservation becomes key by 2020 I presume.

I can tell you this, I cannot find one hedge fund, money manager, energy fund etc that believes energy will be on the top of everyone's mind in the coming future.

The energy funds talk about the next pipeline deal etc but never to my knowledge talk about a looming energy "shortage."

We are so far behind that when it comes it will come with a force the world has never seen.

[BadJuju]

Re: Arthur Berman Destroys All Of The Hype About America's Energy Boom

Perhaps so, my friend. I am primarily concerned with the ability of the USA to meet its own energy needs, so whether it becomes a net exporter or not is of little interest to me. And on the front of self-sufficiency, I think it is well within our grasp; however, only if consumption is curbed dramatically. As you said, energy shortages will be at the front of everyone's mind and that could very well mean that any reserves we do hold are treated strategically and considered national assets to be held and consumed by only our nation. It both surprises and doesn't surprise me that you have not encountered anyone taking the issue seriously. While this is entirely anecdotal, around my neck of the woods it seems like every other vehicle is an SUV or truck. People are still putting in massive miles. It is both troubling and comforting at the same time. It is vexing to see people be so ignorant of the energy problems we face; however, it is good to know there is so much room for conserving energy. Still, I really wish TPTB had thrown down the gauntlet back in 2008/2009 with harsh mandates on energy conservation and development. It would have been painful, but so is the shot that delivers the vaccine.

[NCR85]

Re: Arthur Berman Destroys All Of The Hype About America's Energy Boom

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...389#post243389

well said.

this chart pretty much tells the tale:



I can't find it back, but there's another one of these charts for energy perma-bull Daniel Yergin where every time the price of oil rose above a certain level he'd claim it was just about to return to the low historical mean. Time after time again he was wrong. And still he is being given Pulitzer prizes for repeating his defeated mantra that oil abundance is a permanent condition of our future.

Anyway, here's businessinsider's counterargument to Berman's thesis:
http://www.businessinsider.com/frack...letion-2012-12