China caught red handed this time.

[c1ue]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

Unlike the Chinese born in China, the Chinese born outside China learned the full history.

The root of China's problems is political, not just Japan only. Japan only took advantage of the civil wars in China to invade China.

The Chinese civil wars and subsequently you know who, killed many times more people than the Japanese aggression against China.

From the time of Confucius, China's rulers has feared it's own people more than external enemies. The people is the number one enemy. It is the same case today. China fears internal unrest more than anything else.

The reason is because of political structure. Ironically, for as long as China doesn't become a democracy, others need not fear China, because China will busy fighting it's own people.

There are plenty of Chinese born outside of China who also hate Japanese. Humans of all stripes are well known to pass their beliefs to their offspring.

I also wonder why you think just because more history is known, that somehow the ethnic dislike would decrease. Just because Japan is paying back millenia of bullying means what, exactly?

I never denied the existance of anti-Japan feelings among the Chinese populace. However, I've read countless of stories like this one:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/anale...-real-and-fake
and have seen some rather 'dubious' videos of protesters that look very much like they're just acting (some were posted here on iTulip).

I've been in China many times. The anti-Japanese feeling is very real. And it has nothing to do with education and/or propaganda. I know equally large numbers of Chinese in the US who have never undergone the CCP education system, and feel the same way. These include many members of my own family - who all left mainland China in 1948, and who all now live in the US.

[GRG55]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

On that note:

China’s declaration its ships will stay permanently in Bajo de Masinloc, a declaration some experts say could lead to the Philippines losing 38 percent of its territorial waters.

...

Hmmm. I wonder if the Phillipinos would now prefer the leases on Clark AFB and Subic Bay had been renewed...

[lakedaemonian]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

Hmmm. I wonder if the Phillipinos would now prefer the leases on Clark AFB and Subic Bay had been renewed...

From what I gather from caucasians on the ground and the odd Filipino I know it would appear the Philippine government is moving quite quickly to rectify both it's military as well as it's security relationships(including with the US).

The Philippines have a reasonably well regarded army and specialist forces for dealing with close country and counter insurgency operations(albeit on the corruption and governance side of that coin they still need work..but that's not the military's fault).

The Philippine Navy and Air Force are both relics. The Philippine Navy has been first off the mark(obviously due to EEZ related bullying issues from China) with some decent 2nd hand vessels recently acquired and procurement moving quickly.

The Air Force is sorely in need of a few dozen combat capable aircraft to offer at least a semblance of modern, stand-off anti-ship capability to counter any crazy from China.

The Philippines may be the nation most vulnerable to China in learning the lesson that "It's not actually yours unless you can defend it."

I reckon the Philippines will need 3-5 years minimum to mitigate much of the genuine risk for China to pull an Asian Grenada/Falklands that involves peripheral and largely undefended Philippine sovereign territory and EEZ.

They'll need that long minimum to procure and gain proficiency/capability in protecting it's EEZ to a mediocre degree.
----------------

As far as the renewal of security relationships goes as I understand it the US is slowly growing a fairly substantial "permanent temporary" presence.

Permanent in that the relationships between nations seems healthy in terms of a US military use of Philippine sovereign territory perspective.

And temporary in that it appears to keep both China from getting all "bunny boiler" crazy and to keep the Filipino people who may oppose it from going crazy, by keeping quite a low profile and small footprint.

My basic understanding of future US Navy(Pacific is a US Navy led domain) doctrine is that everything will be decentralized(air, land, and sea based units) across the entire, and only brought together quickly and briefly to avoid presenting a significant target silhouette to the bad guys.

So a few big expensive bases would still be needed for vessel refurbs and logistics hubs, but vessels would be scattered to the 4 winds and hidden in plain site in peacetime, the bulk of air fleet can remain well out of theatre but able to respond quickly, and ground units can stay relatively out of reach and dispersed as long as air/sea transport can be quickly deployed to project them to the bit of dirt you want to keep or take.

So I think if even every single Filipino begged the US to reopen Clark and Subic bigger than ever, both doctrine and wallet would probably prevent it from happening.

-----------

What I heard from an ethnic Filipino just recently is that ethnic Chinese in the Philippines are coming under increased pressure of loyalty/blame....even if multi-generation in the Philippines.

The example of treatment of Japanese Americans in WWII was used as a very very rough indicator(minus the concentration/internment camps of course).

One of my soldiers is ethnic Filipino and born/bred in the Philippines.

Sounds like an amazing and crazy cowboy place......if only they can stomp on the corruption and sort out the governance issue in the outlying areas that keeps a minor insurgency zombie limbo going.

I blame MacArthur........and I think more people will be blaming MacArthur in the next 10-20 years.

He and his sycophants(particularly Willoughby) stuffed up the Philippines(failure to acknowledge/support guerrillas until late in the war) during WWII as well as post WWII in the Philippines(contributing to the cycle of elitism and corruption regarding Philippine Independence), Japan(let Japan's versions of Mengele and Eichmann go AND financially rewarded them), and Korea(failure to adhere to civilian chain of command and instrumental in China entering the war).

I think MacArthur will be viewed a bit like an architect for why much of the geopolitical bad blood exists between the triangle of China, Japan, and the Philippines.......both as a convenient scapegoat, but also with a fair bit of accuracy.

[touchring]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

I would rate the chances of it happening as a good bit better than an Israeli and/or US attack on Iran.

Just my 0.02c

The Philippines is within China's reach. I wonder how would the Association of South East Asia react to such a threat. The South China Sea is even more dangerous than the Middle East.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

The Philippines is within China's reach. I wonder how would the Association of South East Asia react to such a threat. The South China Sea is even more dangerous than the Middle East.

The way I perceive it is the arc of nations on the periphery of China are doing a bit of a dance.

Most of them are trying to build relationships with the US to counterbalance the perception of growing, but with growing pain awkwardness, Chinese regional dominance.

The US has maintained strong relations with Thailand......but in the last 12 months BOTH SecState Clinton and President Obama have been to Myanmar(Burma)...first high level visits in a jillion years......and 2 of them within 12 months.

US/Cambodian relations continue to improve with President Obama being the first President to visit the country.

US/Vietnamese relations continue to thaw slowly......but Vietnam is also growing it's military relationship with China's biggest rival India in the form of India providing training to Vietnamese submarine crews.

And that's on top of the aforementioned further warming of relations between older relationships like the US/Philippines.

Added to some growth in military sales by the US to Malaysia and Indonesia.

Further out of the immediate picture you have a permanent(but rotating) deployment of Marines in Darwin, Australia.

Strong relationships between Singapore and US military.

Strengthening of military relationships between US/NZ as well.

A stated plan to shift approx. 60% of US military power to the Pacific.

China(as well as rival india) is also propping up Fiji's military dictatorship in a spy versus spy kind of comedy.

So it looks and feels like a big geopolitical soap opera.

I don't think many(even any) nations are prepared to jump into the US's open arms.......but they are keen to use the US to provide some balance.....my guess is most would prefer to try as hard as they can to sit on the fence between China and the US and just conduct business.

I don't think a Chinese flavoured version of Grenada/Falklands would possess a US/UK level of kinetic "shock and awe", I think it would entail a greater/harsher level of diplomatic/economic pressure and a lesser level, shorter duration of military involvement.

I think the Chinese would be keenly trying to create a suitable external distraction(and guaranteed success) for public consumption combined with communicating a message to the region(and the world) of China's growing influence/power, in a short/sharp engagement with zero to limited body count, with a low probability of disrupting global markets.

Just my 0.02c

[aaron]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

The Japanese atrocities in WW2 are still talked about with the same vigor as Hitler is regarded in the West. It is not all propaganda, although I am sure that makes it worse in China. Perhaps the rest of the world's Chinese population needs one more generation to forget. China proper may need two more.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

The Japanese atrocities in WW2 are still talked about with the same vigor as Hitler is regarded in the West. It is not all propaganda, although I am sure that makes it worse in China. Perhaps the rest of the world's Chinese population needs one more generation to forget. China proper may need two more.

I reckon it might take a fair bit longer than that.

In my limited and anecdotal experience, while there's always discussion to the point of exhaustion about racism in the US/west(and of course it exists), compared to the often rampant and quite blatant racism that I've seen in Asia I'm thinking the west is doing OK, and parts of Asia might be quite scary depending on your ethnicity and being in the wrong time/place.