China caught red handed this time.

[touchring]

There's a Chinese saying: If you go up the mountain too often, sooner or later you'll meet the tiger.

http://articles.economictimes.indiat...ion-li-keqiang

China's unexpected surge in exports raises doubts, statistics may be unreliable
Bloomberg Jan 14, 2013, 01.52AM IST


World Bank|wikileaks|Wen Jiabao|Wayne Swan|united states|UBS|Treasurer|standard chartered|Mizuho Securities Asia|Li Keqiang|Gross Domestic Product|Goldman Sachs Group|Goldman Sachs|global economy|gdp|economy|Beijing|Australia & New Zealand Banking Group


The increase didn't match goods movements through ports and imports by trading partners according to UBS, while Goldman Sachs and Mizuho Securities Asia cited a divergence from overseas orders in a manufacturing index. Smaller trade gains could signal a less robust recovery from a seven-quarter slowdown just as Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan says the economic rebound is a sign of improving global demand.


Accurate statistics from the world's second-biggest economy are increasingly important for domestic and foreign investors and for China's government, says ANZ's Liu Li-Gang.


"China's influence on the global economy has become bigger, so not only Chinese policy makers but also business people and the rest of the world need better data," said Liu, Hong Kong- based chief Greater China economist, who formerly worked for the World Bank. "Unreliable data could have a negative impact on resource allocation and business planning." The Beijing-based customs administration, which reported the December trade figures on January 10, said it couldn't immediately respond to a faxed request from Bloomberg News for comment on the banks' skepticism.


China's economic growth may have recovered to 7.8 per cent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, after sliding to a three-year low of 7.4 per cent in the previous period, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of the data release on January 18.


Evidence that China's economy "appears to be stabilising" is "one cause of optimism" that global demand will improve this year, Swan said in his weekly economic note on Saturday. China is Australia's largest export market. Li Keqiang, who may succeed Wen Jiabao as premier in March, was quoted in 2007 as saying he watched data on power, rail cargo and loans because gross domestic product numbers were "man-made." Li's remarks were in a US diplomatic cable published by WikiLeaks in late 2010. After China's statistics bureau reported third-quarter GDP in October, Standard Chartered analysts said the 7.4 per cent increase was "too good to be true".

[FrankL]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

wouldn't it be interesting to have an non-government organization report statistics on secondary indicators like:
- # cargo ships / containers going through Chinese harbours
- industrial electricity usage
- amount of traffic congestion
- amount of freight trains
- amount of lorries on the road
etc.

If Chinese and Japanese economies deteriorate further... would politicians in both countries be able to resist the temptation of inciting a conflict, diverting attention from internal economic woes?

This could turn really ugly...

[don]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

the Chinaman did it

Jamie Dimon

[metalman]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

wouldn't it be interesting to have an non-government organization report statistics on secondary indicators like:
- # cargo ships / containers going through Chinese harbours
- industrial electricity usage
- amount of traffic congestion
- amount of freight trains
- amount of lorries on the road
etc.

If Chinese and Japanese economies deteriorate further... would politicians in both countries be able to resist the temptation of inciting a conflict, diverting attention from internal economic woes?

This could turn really ugly...

Japan Explores War Scenarios with China

By J. Michael Cole

January 9, 2013

As Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party national defense task force announced on Jan. 8 that it would increase the nation’s defense budget by more than 100 billion yen ($1.15 billion), three of five scenarios explored by the defense ministry recently involve the Self-Defense Forces squaring off against the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

While contingencies involving North Korea’s ballistic missiles and Russia were among the scenarios the defense ministry explored, the top three all involved a crisis in the East China Sea. The first scenario examined a war between China and Japan over the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands in the East China Sea. Earlier on Tuesday Japan summoned the Chinese ambassador in Tokyo for the first time since Shinzo Abe was sworn in as prime minister to protest the continued presence of official Chinese ships in waters around the islets, which are claimed by Japan, Taiwan and China.

The second scenario, meanwhile, expands on a Senkaku contingency and looks at a widening war involving PLA attempts to seize the Ishigaki and Miyako Islands west of northern Taiwan.

The third, and perhaps most controversial, scenario focuses on how Japan would react to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2021, a date reportedly chosen because it coincides with the 100^thanniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). According to the scenario, the PLA would rely mostly on amphibious vehicles, special forces, ballistic missiles, and a fighter blockade to achieve its ends.

Although the latter scenario makes it clear that the hostilities would primarily involve the PLA and Taiwanese military forces, it nevertheless raises the possibility that China would attack U.S. and Japanese bases on Okinawa, while using long-range ballistic missiles, such as the DF-21D and DF-31, to threaten aircraft carriers in the region and the Western United States should U.S. forces attempt to intervene in the conflict.

Interestingly, Japan would have a responsibility to come to Taiwan’s aid in the event the PLA engages Taiwanese forces, the Japanese-language Sankei Shimbun said in its reporting on the scenarios on Jan. 1.

There has been much speculation over the years about whether Tokyo would intervene if the PLA ever invaded Taiwan. Reports in 2007 alleged that Japanese and U.S. officials, alarmed by growing Chinese might, were considering a plan to coordinate their actions under such a contingency, with Japan providing rear-area support for U.S. forces as stipulated under the Guidelines for Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation. It is no coincidence that the efforts in 2007 also occurred when Abe, who is regarded as pro-Taiwan, was in power.

The two countries late last year also agreed to negotiate possible changes to the bilateral guidelines to better reflect changes in the strategic situation as well as give Japanese forces more room to maneuver.

While the scenarios remain in the realm of speculation, Japan’s inclusion of a Taiwan contingency again underscores the importance Tokyo places on Taiwan remaining de-facto independent. Certainly, China’s assertiveness in 2012 in both the East China and the South China Sea has done little to reassure Tokyo that it could live comfortably with a CCP-controlled Taiwan so close to its waters and territory. As such, rather than being amenable to “abandoning” Taiwan, as a handful of U.S. academics have been arguing for the sake of “improved” ties with Beijing, Tokyo may become more inclined to ensure that the island continues to serve as a natural barrier to Chinese expansion.

According to Japanese sources, the largely symbolic 100 billion yen increase in defense spending announced on Jan. 8 will serve to fund research into a new radar system and to cover fuel and other maintenance costs for early-warning aircraft. But this is only the first step, and there could be many more to come. The defense budget for FY2012 ending in March was just 4.69 trillion yen (US$61 billion), or a little more than 1 percent of GDP, leaving ample room for expansion should Japan’s strategic environment continue to deteriorate in the weeks ahead.

comments...

John LaChance January 11, 2013 at 3:58 am

China is a joke, a liar and a thief. They're all sound and fury, signifying nothing. They are noise, not substance. They will try to make you believe their lies and fabrications. Senkaku belongs to Japan. Make no mistake about that. If you concede one inch to China, we will lose all respect for you. You will have lost face. We will owe you nothing regarding a mutual security arrangement.

Lose one inch, and you no longer have the support or trust of the American public. Sekaku is Japanese. It was wrested from the Qing dynasty. If there is ever a Qing emperor who wishes to contest the sovereignty of the Senkakus, let him step forward. If Red China bases its claims to the Senkakus on the Qing dynasty, then they have already lost, because the Qing emperor ceded the islands to Japan in 1895. If China is the heir to the Qing dynasty, then let China respect the Qing's decision regarding Japan's sovereign rights to the Senkakus.

China is a joke. Believe their bullshit, and you're a fool. Japan needs the Senkakus, because Japan has no oil and gas and is no longer willing to rely on nuclear energy. The Senkaku Islands have more oil and gas than any country would ever need to power its industries to provide competitively priced products to the world. Japan, as a first world nation, cannot survive without the Senkakus.

Meanwhile, China is just so much noise without substance. It's a cowardly bully in the making. Like dealing with an unruly puppy, now is the time to smack it in the nose.

REPLY
Jean-Paul January 11, 2013 at 8:16 am
@ John LaChance

I agree, China is definitely one of the biggest jokes of the modern world. Everyone knows that China's economy is just one massive scam; it is very similar to the soviet union's planned economy. A bunch of old CCP bureaucrats can only run the economy for so long before it begins to collapse and China's empty cities and useless prestige projects have no profitable returns.

Not only that but China is now in a record amount of debt and it is only going to increase as more and more of its projects become useless and do not have any proper return on investment. Planned economies have their limits and there is simply too much incentive for CCP officials to cook the books in order to look good in the eyes of their superiors. This phenomenon happened throughout the entire soviet union and it is clear as day that the same thing is happening to China as well.

If you are looking to truly grow your economy you do not build massive amounts of high rises and condos when the vast majority of your population is dirt poor. It is unsustainable to keep focusing on investment and exports while ignoring your consumers which are the true long-term drivers of the economy.

I congradulate Japan for increasing its defense spending and for increasing its military budget. The seeds of containment are being sowed as we speak and, like a mentally unstable person, China has also proven to be mentally unstable as well. As a result, we must tighten the leather straps on them to contain them from committing any acts of insanity against its neighbours.

war quotes...

Nations have recently been led to borrow billions for war; no nation has ever borrowed largely for education. Probably, no nation is rich enough to pay for both war and civilization. We must make our choice; we cannot have both.

Abraham Flexner (1866 - 1959), Universities, part 3, 1930

One is left with the horrible feeling now that war settles nothing; that to win a war is as disastrous as to lose one.

Agatha Christie (1890 - 1976), Autobiography (1977)

I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.

Albert Einstein (1879 - 1955)

You cannot simultaneously prevent and prepare for war.

Albert Einstein (1879 - 1955), (attributed)

War is not nice.

Barbara Bush (1925 - )

Sometime they'll give a war and nobody will come.

Carl Sandburg (1878 - 1967), The People, Yes (1936)

People in general are scared to death of the war and all the exhibition have been a failure, because the rich - don't want to buy anything.

Frida Kahlo (1907 - 1954), Letter to Nickolas Muray, 02-27-1939

The quickest way of ending a war is to lose it.

George Orwell (1903 - 1950), Polemic, May 1946, "Second Thoughts on James Burnham"

War is a series of catastrophes that results in a victory.

Georges Clemenceau (1841 - 1929)

War is much too serious a matter to be entrusted to the military.

Georges Clemenceau (1841 - 1929)

In peace, children inter their parents; war violates the order of nature and causes parents to inter their children.

Herodotus (484 BC - 430 BC), The Histories of Herodotus

The outcome of the war is in our hands; the outcome of words is in the council.

Homer (800 BC - 700 BC), The Iliad

You can no more win a war than you can win an earthquake.

Jeannette Rankin (1880 - 1973)

War may sometimes be a necessary evil. But no matter how necessary, it is always an evil, never a good. We will not learn how to live together in peace by killing each other's children.

Jimmy Carter (1924 - )

War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse. The person who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety, is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself.

John Stuart Mill (1806 - 1873)

Neither enemy faces, nor the mothers that love them, come to mind when one is thinking of nothing but endeavouring to survive. Philosophising about war is useless under fire.

Linda Berdoll, Mr. Darcy Takes A Wife, 2004

War is not its own end, except in some catastrophic slide into absolute damnation. It's peace that's wanted. Some better peace than the one you started with.

Lois McMaster Bujold, "The Vor Game", 1990

What difference does it make to the dead, the orphans and the homeless, whether the mad destruction is wrought under the name of totalitarianism or the holy name of liberty or democracy?

Mahatma Gandhi (1869 - 1948), "Non-Violence in Peace and War"

Politics is war without bloodshed while war is politics with bloodshed.

Mao Tse-Tung (1893 - 1976)

I think the mark of a great ruler, is not his ability to make war but to achieve peace.

Monica Fairview, Darcy Cousins, 2010

The way to win an atomic war is to make certain it never starts.

Omar Bradley (1893 - 1981), Speech to Boston Chamber of Commerce, 1948

Either war is obsolete or men are.

R. Buckminster Fuller (1895 - 1983), New Yorker, Jan. 8, 1966

It is well that war is so terrible - otherwise we would grow too fond of it.

Robert E. Lee (1807 - 1870), Statement at the Battle of Fredericksburg (13th December 1862)

Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.

Sir Winston Churchill (1874 - 1965)

One day President Roosevelt told me that he was asking publicly for suggestions about what the war should be called. I said at once 'The Unnecessary War'.

Sir Winston Churchill (1874 - 1965), Second World War (1948)

The only winner in the War of 1812 was Tchaikovsky.

Solomon Short

Wars are, of course, as a rule to be avoided; but they are far better than certain kinds of peace.

Theodore Roosevelt (1858 - 1919), Thomas Hart Benton, Chapter 12, 1897

War is a cowardly escape from the problems of peace.

Thomas Mann (1875 - 1955)

The art of war is simple enough. Find out where your enemy is. Get at him as soon as you can. Strike him as hard as you can, and keep moving on.

Ulysses S. Grant (1822 - 1885)

Wars teach us not to love our enemies, but to hate our allies.

W. L. George

The idea of all-out nuclear war is unsettling.

Walter Goodman

Take the diplomacy out of war and the thing would fall flat in a week.

Will Rogers (1879 - 1935)

You can't say that civilization don't advance, however, for in every war they kill you in a new way.

Will Rogers (1879 - 1935), New York Times, Dec. 23, 1929

[touchring]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

wouldn't it be interesting to have an non-government organization report statistics on secondary indicators like:
- # cargo ships / containers going through Chinese harbours
- industrial electricity usage
- amount of traffic congestion
- amount of freight trains
- amount of lorries on the road
etc.

If Chinese and Japanese economies deteriorate further... would politicians in both countries be able to resist the temptation of inciting a conflict, diverting attention from internal economic woes?

This could turn really ugly...

China has more to lose than Japan if there were a confrontation. Japan doesn't have to deal with social unrest or billionaire Premiers.

[FrankL]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

China has more to lose than Japan if there were a confrontation. Japan doesn't have to deal with social unrest or billionaire Premiers.

isn't that exactly the opposite of reasons for confrontation?
China would seek a confrontation exactly because of needing a pressure valve to release steam for its internal issues... we've seen it before by the CCP inciting anti-Japanese feelings with their population.

[don]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

China has more to lose than Japan if there were a confrontation. Japan doesn't have to deal with social unrest or billionaire Premiers.

Speaking from ignorance, but wouldn't the Japanese savers be a bit pissed off at the Yen Dollar trade that gutted their lifetime savings?

[touchring]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

isn't that exactly the opposite of reasons for confrontation?
China would seek a confrontation exactly because of needing a pressure valve to release steam for its internal issues... we've seen it before by the CCP inciting anti-Japanese feelings with their population.

Using propaganda and media is paint the Japanese as the villain is one thing.

But getting into an actual conflict is another matter. It will be embarrassing if China loses in a skirmish. The anger will be directed onto the state itself as we have seen from the high speed train accident. This is a risk that i'm not sure the CCP is willing to take.

The other point is that China has already lost most of the battle before the conflict has started. Japan is still occupying the islands and I believe they will continue to do so no matter what happens.

[BadJuju]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

Also, the USA and Japan are their biggest single trading partners at 25% of exports and 17% of imports. There is no way anyone wins in a confrontation between the three.

[c1ue]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

we've seen it before by the CCP inciting anti-Japanese feelings with their population.

I think this is an incorrect statement. The Chinese population - both in and outside of China - have very strong negative views towards Japan due to both the long historical enmity and the relatively recent wars (WW II and 50 years prior).

More a case of allowing said rhetoric to pop up.

But getting into an actual conflict is another matter. It will be embarrassing if China loses in a skirmish. The anger will be directed onto the state itself as we have seen from the high speed train accident. This is a risk that i'm not sure the CCP is willing to take.

Perhaps, and perhaps not. I personally think any Chinese loss would actually put pressure to reverse said embarrassment rather than pull back, and that the anger would rather redouble on Japan.

Certainly that's what happened in every other 'lost' skirmish - from the McKinley, Tonkin, Ft. Sumter, to Sarajevo, etc etc.

It is also far from clear just what would happen in a skirmish: Japan isn't exactly replete with battle hardened veterans either in its 'Self Defense Force'.

[GRG55]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

Speaking from ignorance, but wouldn't the Japanese savers be a bit pissed off at the Yen Dollar trade that gutted their lifetime savings?

Is Mrs. Watanabe still playing the currency markets?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2562...on-carry-trade

[touchring]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

I think this is an incorrect statement. The Chinese population - both in and outside of China - have very strong negative views towards Japan due to both the long historical enmity and the relatively recent wars (WW II and 50 years prior).

Unlike the Chinese born in China, the Chinese born outside China learned the full history.

The root of China's problems is political, not just Japan only. Japan only took advantage of the civil wars in China to invade China.

The Chinese civil wars and subsequently you know who, killed many times more people than the Japanese aggression against China.

From the time of Confucius, China's rulers has feared it's own people more than external enemies. The people is the number one enemy. It is the same case today. China fears internal unrest more than anything else.

The reason is because of political structure. Ironically, for as long as China doesn't become a democracy, others need not fear China, because China will busy fighting it's own people.

[FrankL]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

I think this is an incorrect statement. The Chinese population - both in and outside of China - have very strong negative views towards Japan due to both the long historical enmity and the relatively recent wars (WW II and 50 years prior).

More a case of allowing said rhetoric to pop up.
...

I never denied the existance of anti-Japan feelings among the Chinese populace. However, I've read countless of stories like this one:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/anale...-real-and-fake
and have seen some rather 'dubious' videos of protesters that look very much like they're just acting (some were posted here on iTulip).

[touchring]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

I never denied the existance of anti-Japan feelings among the Chinese populace. However, I've read countless of stories like this one:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/anale...-real-and-fake
and have seen some rather 'dubious' videos of protesters that look very much like they're just acting (some were posted here on iTulip).

The resentment is real. This is because of education and propaganda.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: China caught red handed this time.

On that note:

China’s declaration its ships will stay permanently in Bajo de Masinloc, a declaration some experts say could lead to the Philippines losing 38 percent of its territorial waters.

http://www.malaya.com.ph/index.php/n...-by-38-percent

Semi-official Chinese PLA Colonel allowed to get "unofficially stroppy" with the world on behalf of China.

I think what he is saying is that Australia needs to decide whose concubine it want to be: US or China, can't be both; Japan could be nuked again if it's not careful, wink wink nudge nudge.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politi...122-2d52d.html

Combine that with the following facts:

China's casualties from military adventure are becoming quite distant(Korean War 50-53, Soviet Border Conflicts during the 60's, Chinese-Vietnamese Border War 79) memories, so the sting and caution coming from conflict is largely missing.

China's one child(and seriously male dominant) policy has potential to have social blowback that could result in overly nationalistic/warlike behavior from the general public.

While China possesses considerable financial horsepower and instantaneous execution of policy, it will face increasing difficulty in managing domestic expectations in a fragile pact that allows the Communist Party to run a crony capitalist dictatorship in exchange for a decent chance of living the Mandarin Chinese version of the American Dream..........which could leave Party leadership vulnerable to regional foreign military adventure.

A Chinese hybrid of "stretching it's military legs" in an operation that would result in a 100% chance of success combined with distracting the population with an external crisis.

I'd be thinking a Chinese version of Grenada 1983. In 1983 the US was in the middle of a seismic shift in it's military having adjusted to a wholly professional force, the induction of a huge range of new generation weapon systems and warfighting doctrine, and a shift in US foreign policy.

Swap out US for China, and Grenada for a Philippine atoll and add in China's brand of awkward soft power(backed by military capability that could easily dominate against a dangerously weak Philippine military) and you have a potentially compelling foreign policy opportunity for China.

Add in some analysis of Argentine government action in the Falklands in 1982 to distract a restless and impatient populace, but ensure any similar action in the South China Sea is virtually guaranteed 100% military success and political top cover and you have the recipe for an interesting crisis.

I could easily see China attempting it's own Chinese flavoured, conservative, and probably less kinetic version of Grenada/Falklands in it's own region of influence/control.

Front page news stuff for a week, with the US and regional allies expressing considerable concern, but soon followed by uneasy acceptance due to lack of reasonable alternatives and the news cycle focusing on the next non-issue.

I would rate the chances of it happening as a good bit better than an Israeli and/or US attack on Iran.

Just my 0.02c