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  • China is massively boosting stockpiles of rice, iron ore, precious metals and dry milk

    THEY ARE GETTING READY: “NO OBVIOUS REASON” FOR WHY CHINA IS MASSIVELY BOOSTING STOCKPILES OF RICE, IRON ORE, PRECIOUS METALS, DRY MILKPosted on Jan 10, 2013 | 0 comments
    If there were ever a sign that something is amiss, this may very well be it.
    United Nations agricultural experts are reporting confusion, after figures show that China imported 2.6 million tons of rice in 2012, substantially more than a four-fold increase over the 575,000 tons imported in 2011.
    The confusion stems from the fact that there is no obvious reason for vastly increased imports, since there has been no rice shortage in China. The speculation is that Chinese importers are taking advantage of low international prices, but all that means is that China’s own vast supplies of domestically grown rice are being stockpiled.
    Why would China suddenly be stockpiling millions of tons of rice for no apparent reason?
    Perhaps it’s related to China’s aggressive military buildup and war preparations in the Pacific and in central Asia.


    If a 400% year-over-year increase in rice stockpiles isn’t enough to convince you the Chinese are preparing for a significant near-term event, consider that in Australia the country’s two major baby formula distributors have reported they are unable to keep up with demand for their dry milk formula products. Grocery stores throughout the country have been left empty of the essential infant staple as a result of bulk exports by the Chinese.
    A surge in sales of one of Australia’s most popular brands of infant formula has led to an unusual sight for this wealthy nation: barren shelves in the baby aisle and even rationing of baby food in some leading retail outlets.
    We’d be more apt to believe the Chinese were panic-buying baby formula had the Chinese milk scandal occurred recently. The problem is that it happened four years ago. Are we to believe the Chinese are just now realizing their baby food may be tainted?
    In addition to the apparent build-up in food stocks, the Chinese are further diversifying their cash assets (denominated in US Dollars) into physical goods. In fact, in just a single month in 2012, the Chinese imported and stockpiled more gold than the entirety of the gold stored in the vaults of the European Central Bank (and did we mention they did this in one month?).
    Their precious metals stockpiles have grown so quickly in recent years that Chinese official holdings remain a complete mystery to Western governments and it’s rumored that the People’s Republic may now be the second largest gold hoarding nation in the world, behind the United States.
    We won’t know for sure until the official disclosure which will come when China is ready and not a moment earlier, but at the current run-rate of accumulation which is just shy of 1,000 tons per year, it is certainly within the realm of possibilities that China is now the second largest holder of gold in the world, surpassing Germany’s 3,395 tons and second only to the US.
    But the Chinese aren’t just buying precious metals. They’re rapidly acquiring industrial metals as well.
    Spot iron prices are up to an almost 15-month high at $153.90 per tonne. The rally in prices, which started in December 2012, is mainly due to China’s rebuilding of its stockpiles as the Asian giant gears to boost its economy, which in turn, could improve steel demand.
    The official explanation, that China is preparing stockpiles in anticipation of an economic recovery, is quite amusing considering that just 8 months ago Reuters reported that China had an oversupply, so much so that their storage facilities had run out of room to store all the inventory!
    When metals warehouses in top consumer China are so full that workers start stockpiling iron ore in granaries and copper in car parks, you know the global economy could be in trouble.
    At Qingdao Port, home to one of China’s largest iron ore terminals, hundreds of mounds of iron ore, each as tall as a three-storey building, spill over into an area signposted “grains storage” and almost to the street.
    Further south, some bonded warehouses in Shanghai are using carparks to store swollen copper stockpiles – another unusual phenomenon that bodes ill for global metal prices and raises questions about China’s ability to sustain its economic growth as the rest of the world falters.
    Now, why would China be stockpiling even more iron (and setting 15 month price highs in the process) if they had massive amounts of excess inventory just last year?
    Something tells us this has nothing to do with an economic recovery, or even economic theory in terms of popular mainstream analysis.


    Why does China need four times as much rice year-over-year? Why purchase more iron when you already have a huge surplus? Why buy gold when, as Federal Reserve Chairmen Ben Bernanke suggests, it is not real money? Why build massive cities capable of housing a million or more people, and then keep them empty?
    It doesn’t add up. None of it makes any sense.
    Unless the Chinese know something we haven’t been made privy to.
    Is it possible, in a world where hundreds of trillions of dollars are owed, where the United States indirectly controls most of the globe’s oil reserves, and where super powers have built tens of thousands of nuclear weapons and spent hundreds of billions on weapons of war (real ones, not those pesky semi-automatic assault rifles), that the Chinese expect things to take a turn for the worse in the near future?
    The Chinese are buying physical assets – and not just representations of those assets in the form of paper receipts – but the actual physical commodities. And they are storing them in-country. Perhaps they’ve determined that U.S. and European debt are a losing proposition and it’s only a matter of time before the financial, economic and monetary systems of the West undergo a complete collapse.
    At best, what these signs indicate is that the People’s Republic of China is expecting the value of currencies ( they have trillions in Western currency reserves) will deteriorate with respect to physical commodities. They are stocking up ahead of the carnage and buying what they can before their savings are hyper-inflated away.
    At worst, they may very well be getting ready for what geopolitical analyst Joel Skousen warned of in his documentary Strategic Relocation, where he argued that some time in the next decade the Chinese and Russians may team up against the United States in a thermo-nuclear showdown.
    Hard to believe? Maybe.
    But consider that China is taking measures now, in addition to their stockpiling, that suggest we are already in the opening salvos of World War III. They have already taken steps to map our entire national grid – that includes water, power, refining, commerce and transportation infrastructure. They’re directly involved in hacking government and commercial networks and are responsible for what has been called the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of the world. Militarily, the PRC has been developing technology like EMP weapons systems, capable of disabling our military fleets and the electrical infrastructure of the country as a whole, and has been caught red-handed manufacturing fake computer chips used in U.S. Navy weapons systems.
    If you still doubt China’s intentions and expectations, look to other governments, including our own, for signs that someone, somewhere is planning for horrific worst-case scenarios:
    • The Russians have scheduled 5,000 underground bunkers for completion this year.
    • Europe rapidly designed, built and stocked the so-called Doomsday Seed Vault in Svalbard, Norway, which contains tens of thousands of varieties of seeds and is supposed to preserve them in the event of Armageddon style events like asteroid impacts or nuclear war.
    • The United States government has been stockpiling tens of millions of emergency meals and other supplies and regionalizing their emergency distribution centers across the country (curiously, those supplies never made it to Hurricane Sandy victims)
    • The government has purchased nearly 2 billion rounds of ammunition in the last few years.
    • The Pentagon has been Actively War Gaming ‘Large Scale Economic Breakdown’ and ‘Civil Unrest’
    • China recently made a call, through their Xinhua news agency, for the complete disarmament of the American population (Behind every blade of grass…)
    Perhaps there’s a reason why former Congressman Roscoe Bartlett has warned, “those who can, should move their families out of the city.”
    As Kyle Bass noted in a recent speech, “it’s just a question of when will this unravel and how will it unravel.”
    Given how similar events have played out in history, we think you know how this ends.
    It ends through war.
    Governments around the world are stockpiling food, supplies, precious metals and arms, suggesting that there is foreknowledge of an impending event.
    Should we be doing the same?
    http://www.thecomingdepressionblog.c...etals-dry-milk

    What are they preparing for? War? A USD and treasury crisis? Is this being done with funds that would otherwise end up in the US treasury- and other US asset markets somehow? What is it a flight out of exactly?
    "It's not the end of the world, but you can see it from here." - Deus Ex HR

  • #2
    Re: China is massively boosting stockpiles of rice, iron ore, precious metals and dry milk

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...284001608.html

    That lays out a pretty case as to why they are importing so much rice.

    http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/42202...m#.UO8qrG80V8F

    Another good case on why are they building their metal stockpiles up.

    We already know why they are building up precious metals. That shouldn't come as a surprise to us as readers of this site.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: China is massively boosting stockpiles of rice, iron ore, precious metals and dry milk

      smells like b.s.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: China is massively boosting stockpiles of rice, iron ore, precious metals and dry milk

        Originally posted by aaron View Post
        smells like b.s.
        Smells like the kind of dreck you get from those types of blogs.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: China is massively boosting stockpiles of rice, iron ore, precious metals and dry milk

          If you bother reading this, read the original which has a ton of links at least:

          http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-new...ports_01092013

          It doesn't seem completely out of the realm of possibility that they would diversify out of US bonds in advance of a potential bond crisis. Wouldn't that leave a public record with FRED though?

          The idea that russia and china want to get in a nuclear war with the US seems pretty silly unless they have a really great missile defense system we don't know about. Have these bloggers never heard of MAD?

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: China is massively boosting stockpiles of rice, iron ore, precious metals and dry milk

            It occurs to me that China over-invested in iron ore production, and facing a glut, has reason to support prices. As the article BadJuju posted clarifies, one way to do so is to over-invest in even more building and infrastructure development. In my opinion, the answer to "What is China up to?" will be "Trying desperately to avoid paying the piper for unhealthy levels of credit-financed investment-led growth, and avoiding social unrest." for the foreseeable future.

            The global ruction suggested by the linked article makes no sense to me in the present geopolitical context. It's one thing to spin some pieces of information into a theory, but the step that seems missing in this case is checking that the theory makes sense in the context of everything else you know.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: China is massively boosting stockpiles of rice, iron ore, precious metals and dry milk

              Originally posted by davidstvz View Post
              Have these bloggers never heard of MAD?
              Nor have they apparently heard of nuclear winters.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: China is massively boosting stockpiles of rice, iron ore, precious metals and dry milk

                Originally posted by ASH View Post
                . In my opinion, the answer to "What is China up to?" will be "Trying desperately to avoid paying the piper for unhealthy levels of credit-financed investment-led growth, and avoiding social unrest." for the foreseeable future.
                That's exactly where I see happening here as well. They are clinging on to the Chinese economic miracle as much as they possibly can. It isn't any different to what occurred here with our bubbles and the slavish attempts at keeping them going.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: China is massively boosting stockpiles of rice, iron ore, precious metals and dry milk

                  Originally posted by davidstvz View Post
                  It doesn't seem completely out of the realm of possibility that they would diversify out of US bonds in advance of a potential bond crisis. Wouldn't that leave a public record with FRED though?
                  It would show up in the Treasury International Capital (TIC) reports, for instance here, although I believe the most recent numbers are from October 2012. The real problem for China is that (a) they hold our bonds partly to affect yuan-to-dollar exchange rates, so they're not entirely free to invest this money simply to get a return, and (b) it's hard to sell hundreds of billions of dollars of Treasurys into the market without taking a loss from the drop in price, and (c) it's hard to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in real assets without driving those prices up and buying at a premium that later translates into a loss. And the assets that China could put their money into are either much less liquid than Treasurys or much less safe.

                  Originally posted by davidstvz View Post
                  The idea that russia and china want to get in a nuclear war with the US seems pretty silly unless they have a really great missile defense system we don't know about. Have these bloggers never heard of MAD?
                  I agree. Also, I felt that the original post didn't adequately examine why any of the parties who supposedly would wage war are incentivized to do so.

                  China's economy is growing faster than the US but is still smaller; its military capabilities are improving rapidly but are still organized around territorial defense and some regional strike capability, with significant gaps relative to the US; its economy is dependent on global trade (exports for income and imports for resources) which its military lacks the capacity to defend, and with trade partners who are mainly aligned with the US. When your measures of national strength are rising but you're still weaker than your potential adversary, and you have critical strategic weaknesses that your adversary could exploit, you don't start a war you'll lose; you wait until those trends carry your strength beyond that of your adversary and you've fixed those weaknesses. More to the point, China wants to replace the US as regional hegemon, and it wants an eventual reunification with Taiwan on China's terms -- not global desolation and the destruction of its economy. China is on a trajectory to amass enough regional capability -- and undermine enough foundations of American power projection -- to eventually achieve both goals without firing a shot. Therefore, shots now and in the next several years make no sense.

                  As for Russia, its military is not exactly in fighting trim, although it still possesses potent strategic weapons and potent technology. But short of a nonsensical nuclear war, Russia's role is that of spoiler -- it can block UN Security Council resolutions against its few allies, and it can export military technology that Western arms would find challenging to deal with. But Russia's economy is dependent on resource extraction, and corruption is a significant barrier to the sort of investment and entrepreneurship which would sustain more diversified economic growth. Its GDP is 1/8th that of the US (1/6th in purchasing power parity terms) and its military needs modernization of equipment as well as command and control -- something Putin is working on, but which hasn't yet reached fruition. In short, Russia's capacity to contribute to a war with the US is somewhat limited; it doesn't belong in the same category as China. For that matter, what does Russia want? Respect and an end to lectures about human rights? You don't nuke the world on that basis. Surely Russia has core national interests it is prepared to defend, but what is the existential threat from America that would be worth countering with a nuclear war? Russia has concerns about American work on missile defense, and it strongly opposes American hegemony in the Middle East and elsewhere, but it has many policy options open to it by which to demonstrate its displeasure and disincentivize the offending American activity. For instance, before Russia goes to war in defense of an ally or client, it can sell that client more advanced anti-aircraft weapons that make Western intervention more risky; the cases in which Russia has held off exporting its top-of-the-line (or near top-of-the-line) hardware to places like Iran are a direct measure of how much Russian skin is actually in the game. So Russia isn't going to suddenly attack the US in a 30-minute battle to the death over non-existential quarrels, particularly when it has other options for influencing us.

                  And then there's America: morale exhausted by protracted and inglorious wars, fiscally strained, and riven with internal political divisions. The world order and its institutions are largely what we created in the 20th century, although our influence is diminishing. But the exhausted author of the world order is not the power that starts a world war which may upend it. True, we would fight to defend that order if we believed we'd prevail, but if the day comes when China can sink our flattops and close our regional bases with a hail of cheap ballistic missiles -- and the countermoves on the drawing board haven't been fully developed and fielded -- we're not going to blow the world up defending Taiwan from China. Instead, as the regional balance of power gradually shifts, we'll try to get Taiwan the best deal possible while our ability to intervene is still credible, and then we'll back off peaceably because Taiwan's independence is not an existential concern of the US, and unless China demonstrates ambition to control the world (as opposed to their region of interest), China's reunification with Taiwan is not a domino in need of containment.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: China is massively boosting stockpiles of rice, iron ore, precious metals and dry milk

                    While it is certainly fun to game these scenarios... come on, remember this?

                    China’s Pig Farmers Amass Copper, Nickel, Sucden Says (Update1


                    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a1B_ZBQfii8Q


                    Chinese are gamblers. They are buying stuff to make a profit. They do not care if poor people only get to eat half what they used to afford.
                    Maybe they have their own version of "buy rice and destroy JP Morgan!"

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: China is massively boosting stockpiles of rice, iron ore, precious metals and dry milk

                      Originally posted by ASH View Post
                      It would show up in the Treasury International Capital (TIC) reports, for instance here, although I believe the most recent numbers are from October 2012. The real problem for China is that (a) they hold our bonds partly to affect yuan-to-dollar exchange rates, so they're not entirely free to invest this money simply to get a return, and (b) it's hard to sell hundreds of billions of dollars of Treasurys into the market without taking a loss from the drop in price, and (c) it's hard to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in real assets without driving those prices up and buying at a premium that later translates into a loss. And the assets that China could put their money into are either much less liquid than Treasurys or much less safe.



                      I agree. Also, I felt that the original post didn't adequately examine why any of the parties who supposedly would wage war are incentivized to do so.

                      China's economy is growing faster than the US but is still smaller; its military capabilities are improving rapidly but are still organized around territorial defense and some regional strike capability, with significant gaps relative to the US; its economy is dependent on global trade (exports for income and imports for resources) which its military lacks the capacity to defend, and with trade partners who are mainly aligned with the US. When your measures of national strength are rising but you're still weaker than your potential adversary, and you have critical strategic weaknesses that your adversary could exploit, you don't start a war you'll lose; you wait until those trends carry your strength beyond that of your adversary and you've fixed those weaknesses. More to the point, China wants to replace the US as regional hegemon, and it wants an eventual reunification with Taiwan on China's terms -- not global desolation and the destruction of its economy. China is on a trajectory to amass enough regional capability -- and undermine enough foundations of American power projection -- to eventually achieve both goals without firing a shot. Therefore, shots now and in the next several years make no sense.

                      As for Russia, its military is not exactly in fighting trim, although it still possesses potent strategic weapons and potent technology. But short of a nonsensical nuclear war, Russia's role is that of spoiler -- it can block UN Security Council resolutions against its few allies, and it can export military technology that Western arms would find challenging to deal with. But Russia's economy is dependent on resource extraction, and corruption is a significant barrier to the sort of investment and entrepreneurship which would sustain more diversified economic growth. Its GDP is 1/8th that of the US (1/6th in purchasing power parity terms) and its military needs modernization of equipment as well as command and control -- something Putin is working on, but which hasn't yet reached fruition. In short, Russia's capacity to contribute to a war with the US is somewhat limited; it doesn't belong in the same category as China. For that matter, what does Russia want? Respect and an end to lectures about human rights? You don't nuke the world on that basis. Surely Russia has core national interests it is prepared to defend, but what is the existential threat from America that would be worth countering with a nuclear war? Russia has concerns about American work on missile defense, and it strongly opposes American hegemony in the Middle East and elsewhere, but it has many policy options open to it by which to demonstrate its displeasure and disincentivize the offending American activity. For instance, before Russia goes to war in defense of an ally or client, it can sell that client more advanced anti-aircraft weapons that make Western intervention more risky; the cases in which Russia has held off exporting its top-of-the-line (or near top-of-the-line) hardware to places like Iran are a direct measure of how much Russian skin is actually in the game. So Russia isn't going to suddenly attack the US in a 30-minute battle to the death over non-existential quarrels, particularly when it has other options for influencing us.

                      And then there's America: morale exhausted by protracted and inglorious wars, fiscally strained, and riven with internal political divisions. The world order and its institutions are largely what we created in the 20th century, although our influence is diminishing. But the exhausted author of the world order is not the power that starts a world war which may upend it. True, we would fight to defend that order if we believed we'd prevail, but if the day comes when China can sink our flattops and close our regional bases with a hail of cheap ballistic missiles -- and the countermoves on the drawing board haven't been fully developed and fielded -- we're not going to blow the world up defending Taiwan from China. Instead, as the regional balance of power gradually shifts, we'll try to get Taiwan the best deal possible while our ability to intervene is still credible, and then we'll back off peaceably because Taiwan's independence is not an existential concern of the US, and unless China demonstrates ambition to control the world (as opposed to their region of interest), China's reunification with Taiwan is not a domino in need of containment.
                      A very credible explanation. One further point; if the Chinese have come to the same conclusions that I have about the nature of the potential for a climate change event that will make future trade moot caused by a sudden rise in sea levels; then it will make very good sense to stock up with essentials that will be difficult to obtain in a short term crisis involving transport limitations.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: China is massively boosting stockpiles of rice, iron ore, precious metals and dry milk

                        http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/12/bu...-in-china.html

                        "Food, accounting for about 30 percent of China’s consumer price index, was a major driver of inflation last month, as cold weather and holiday demand raised prices. The National Bureau of Statistics said the food C.P.I. had risen 4.2 percent in December from the same month the previous year. The nonfood component rose 1.7 percent."

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: China is massively boosting stockpiles of rice, iron ore, precious metals and dry milk

                          Apparently, other observers are less certain than I that China (and Japan) see their rational self-interest clearly. From The Economist:

                          China and Japan square up
                          The drums of war

                          Armed clashes over trivial specks in the East China Sea loom closer
                          Jan 19th 2013 | BEIJING AND TOKYO |From the print edition

                          WATCH Chinese television these days and you might conclude that the outbreak of war with Japan over what it calls the Senkaku and China the Diaoyu islands is only a matter of time. You might well be right. Since Japan in September announced it would “nationalise” three of the islands that had been privately owned, China, which has long contested Japan’s sovereignty over them, has also started challenging its resolve to keep control of them. So both countries are claiming to own the islands and both are pretending to administer them. China this week announced its intention to map them thoroughly. Something has to give.

                          In response to the deteriorating climate, Kurt Campbell, assistant secretary of state in President Barack Obama’s administration, flew to the region this week, urging “cooler heads to prevail”. Hotter heads are more in fashion. Hopes that recent changes in leadership in China and Japan might bring an easing of tensions have been disappointed. Hitoshi Tanaka of the Institute for International Strategy in Tokyo notes that the emergence last September of Shinzo Abe, a right-wing nationalist, as head of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party was influenced by the feeling that Japan needed to take a tougher line with China. In December Mr Abe became prime minister for a second time, after an election campaign in which he promised just that.

                          Since then China, too, has become more assertive over the islands. Already, in his speech to the Communist Party’s five-yearly congress in November, Hu Jintao, its outgoing leader, had declared China’s ambition to “build itself into a maritime power”, the first time this had been stated so explicitly. Nor is it clear that his successor, the less wooden Xi Jinping, who will be named president in March, shares his predecessors’ habitual caution in dealings with America. He will surely see no benefit in compromising with Japan, which is despised by many Chinese. And, with little or no military experience, he will want to appear a strong commander-in-chief.

                          It is against this backdrop that televised military punditry is booming in China. On current-affairs programmes, armchair warriors pontificate about the Diaoyus. Newspapers propagate a uniformly jingoistic analysis of the increasing likelihood of armed conflict.

                          They are not making it up. Last month a small aircraft of China’s State Oceanic Bureau flew into what Japan considers its territorial airspace over the Senkakus. Flying too low to be detected by Japan’s land-based radar, it was spotted too late for a scramble of eight F-15 fighter jets to prove effective. Since then, Japan has deployed Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS). On January 7th Chinese patrol ships spent more than 13 hours near the islands—longer than ever before, said Japanese officials. On January 10th, when two Japanese F-15s scrambled to intercept a Chinese plane flying near the islands, China scrambled its own fighter jets.

                          Now the Japanese air force is weighing whether to fire warning shots if Chinese aircraft come into its airspace, for the first time since 1987, when the former Soviet Union intruded. For General Peng Guanqian of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences, interviewed on a Chinese web portal, this would amount to the first shot of “actual combat”. China should then “respond without courtesy”, he said. The Japanese press reported that America had also warned Japan against firing shots.

                          A widely read, if shrill, Beijing newspaper, Global Times, has argued that Japan might not be deterred and “we need to prepare for the worst”. Japan, it said, had become the “vanguard” of an American strategy to “contain China”. The implication was that China should also be ready to take on America, which has made clear that its security treaty with Japan covers the disputed islets.

                          The dangers of combat are rarely spelt out to Chinese audiences. China would widely be seen as the provocateur. Japan is its second-largest trading partner and one of its biggest foreign investors. The knock-on effects would include an escalation of unease about China around the region. Other countries with territorial disputes with it, such as India, Vietnam and the Philippines, would look even more keenly towards America for support.

                          ... continued ...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: China is massively boosting stockpiles of rice, iron ore, precious metals and dry milk

                            i have a simple theory that might explain the increase in chinese imports of baby formula: they're running out of melamine.

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