Hawaii photovoltaic going exponential: Oahu more installs in a year than in previous decade, Kauai to get 50% of daytime load by 2015

[mooncliff]

Photovoltaic in Hawaii is really going exponential, in spite of changes in subsidies.
Hawaii passed UNsubsidized grid parity last year.

http://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/b...oahu-this.html

By 2015, KIUC expects to draw 50% of its daytime electrical load from PV systems, the highest percentage of solar on any grid in the U.S."
http://www.solarserver.com/solar-magazine/solar-news/current/2013/kw01/alexander-baldwin-completes-6-mw-pv-plant-in-hawaii.html

[Southernguy]

Re: Hawaii photovoltaic going exponential: Oahu more installs in a year than in previous decade, Kauai to get 50% of daytime load by 2015

I am getting cheaper quotations for solar panels from China; last was: "I can offer FOB shanghai 0.53-63 USD/w for 40 feet container order." That is for a range of panels from 5 to 310 pwatts. Mono and poly crystal as well.
A year ago prices were about 80 cents.
Leveled cost of operation for photovoltaic on places with temperate climate (not equatorial nor arctic-antarctic seems to be around $100 per MWh.
Not higher than natgas in places with "normal" prices for same, which naturally excludes the US. The advantege of gas is, still, free availability.

[c1ue]

Re: Hawaii photovoltaic going exponential: Oahu more installs in a year than in previous decade, Kauai to get 50% of daytime load by 2015

How nice that Hawaii has decided to spend tons of money subsidizing the wealthier residents - who can afford PV systems - rather than upgrade from their crude oil based electricity generation today.

The extra fun will be when the remaining 50% of consumers must pay more than double their bills to compensate both for feedin tariff credits and the exemption from distribution/taxation/etc which is part of existing electrical bills.

[mfyahya]

Re: Hawaii photovoltaic going exponential: Oahu more installs in a year than in previous decade, Kauai to get 50% of daytime load by 2015

Panels are under $1/watt even at retail quantities now. Around $5K in panels for a typical house. Maybe another 2-3k for the inverter and installation/wiring. Batteries can be avoided if using the grid to sell power back to the electricity company.
It's quite affordable now.

[BadJuju]

Re: Hawaii photovoltaic going exponential: Oahu more installs in a year than in previous decade, Kauai to get 50% of daytime load by 2015

That's good news! I'll probably buy some PV to power a laptop and other small electronics.

[shiny!]

Re: Hawaii photovoltaic going exponential: Oahu more installs in a year than in previous decade, Kauai to get 50% of daytime load by 2015

How do you do the math to figure out what you need to power various things in the home? For me, the biggest essential is air conditioning in the summer, and the refrigerator. But A/C is a HUGE power draw. I don't think I could fit enough panels on my roof to power the A/C.

[lektrode]

Re: Hawaii photovoltaic going exponential: Oahu more installs in a year than in previous decade, Kauai to get 50% of daytime load by 2015

How do you do the math to figure out what you need to power various things in the home? For me, the biggest essential is air conditioning in the summer, and the refrigerator. But A/C is a HUGE power draw. I don't think I could fit enough panels on my roof to power the A/C.

simplest way?
take yer bill and divide the kwh used by the number of billed days = kwh/day = how much PV you need
and yeah, yer right - it would be pretty hard/pricey to come up with the roof space to run a/c (never mind batteries)
another way:
go read your meter - record the number.
then shutdown (flip off the ckt breakers) everything else (cept maybe the refrig, since that is one of the largest base loads)
and then run the a/c all day (normal run time)
then go read the meter again (record and then turn back on all you shutoff)
subtract the diff, then multiply the reading by 30 and voila!

[doom&gloom]

Re: Hawaii photovoltaic going exponential: Oahu more installs in a year than in previous decade, Kauai to get 50% of daytime load by 2015

I am getting cheaper quotations for solar panels from China; last was: "I can offer FOB shanghai 0.53-63 USD/w for 40 feet container order." That is for a range of panels from 5 to 310 pwatts. Mono and poly crystal as well.
A year ago prices were about 80 cents.
Leveled cost of operation for photovoltaic on places with temperate climate (not equatorial nor arctic-antarctic seems to be around $100 per MWh.
Not higher than natgas in places with "normal" prices for same, which naturally excludes the US. The advantege of gas is, still, free availability.

Hows this compare in Uruguay with your electric costs?

[mooncliff]

Re: Hawaii photovoltaic going exponential: Oahu more installs in a year than in previous decade, Kauai to get 50% of daytime load by 2015

Why do you think this will happen?
Hawaii has subsidized solar water heaters that cost a few thousand dollars. That is often more than half of an electric bill. But 3/4 or houses have refused to do it. They complain about enormous electric bills, but wont do simple things that are actually free to cut their bills. They simply do not understand how this works out even if you draw a picture. Believe me, I have done it many many times and failed about 90% of the time.
The feed in tariff is 22 cents per kwh, whereas they are charging 30 to 35 cents per kilowatt hour. The 22 cents is comparable to what they are paying for oil generation.
They cant easily convert to natural gas because of transport problems. They did convert 10% to coal.
We now have a skilled workforce that knows how to procure and install the photovoltaics. That is what the subsidies were for. Now that the price is collapsing, and Hawaii has passed UNsubsidized grid parity, I expect the subsidies to be phased out rapidly.
By doing the solar water heating and the photovoltaics, the utilities AVOIDED huge expenses because they would have had to construct more power plants.
We will see if your gloom and doom scenario comes about, in which case of course I will take this back.
In the meantime, my mom's house with three people in it, solar water heater, but NO photovoltaics has an electric bill of $50 a month, uses no natural gas, and requires a trivial amount of air conditioning. Her residential per capita electricity use is 1/10th the US average. And she leaves the damn TV on all day even when she is outside!
I could cancel her electric bill with a $3,000 UNsubsidized system, but I think I will wait since the systems continue to improve exponentially.
I know a lot of people who go through the "Ack, thats a lie! It wont work!" instead of trying to fix problems. The reason is Mistake Were Made (But Not by ME).

[c1ue]

Re: Hawaii photovoltaic going exponential: Oahu more installs in a year than in previous decade, Kauai to get 50% of daytime load by 2015

Why do you think this will happen?

Because

1) The sun doesn't always shine, even in Hawaii. What feedin tariffs do is essentially allow each homeowner to store electricity at a profit in the electric utility.

2) Because the feedin tariff doesn't cover distribution, capital costs, and so forth which existing electrical utility customers pay. The utility isn't going to eat these - it will simply redistribute them among the paying customers. This equally applies to the salaries and other operational expenses the electricity utility has.

[Southernguy]

Re: Hawaii photovoltaic going exponential: Oahu more installs in a year than in previous decade, Kauai to get 50% of daytime load by 2015

Hows this compare in Uruguay with your electric costs?

I donīt know. I havenīt studied it. I am trying to write a documented work about the energy policy of our guv.
So far they are investing 742 million U$ in a combined cycle gas generating unit and plan to invest 120 million annually for 15 years in a liquid to gas converting unit. My calculations at 4% NPV are about 1200 million if paid upfront.
At 2000 million I am sure they could gradually install a PV system (a number of generating stations, that is) of about the same 500 MW capacity (that is 2000 Mw peak) with the "small" difference that sunlight is free.
Maybe thatīs the reason; sun doesnīt pay commissions (grafts).
On top of that there is PCO. How much shall natgas cost in 15 years? Nobody knows, but I am sure much more than today.
In such 15 years we shall have a useless liquid-gas conversion station and generating unit.
Because of obsolescence as well as probably unaffordable nat gas prices.
So much for our "low corruption" country and our "poorest in the world" president.

[santafe2]

Re: Hawaii photovoltaic going exponential: Oahu more installs in a year than in previous decade, Kauai to get 50% of daytime load by 2015

How do you do the math to figure out what you need to power various things in the home? For me, the biggest essential is air conditioning in the summer, and the refrigerator. But A/C is a HUGE power draw. I don't think I could fit enough panels on my roof to power the A/C.

Our dealers install several megawatts of solar PV in Phoenix and Tucson every year. Average output is 1.5-1.6 kWh per year per installed watt. That assumes a system is faced within 20 degrees of solar south and tilted at least 15 degrees. Homes in AZ tend to use a lot of energy to stay cool.

A simple metric for your location is to log into your your utility, (APS, SRP in Phoenix), and get your last 12 months kWh usage. Say you use 18,000 kWh a year, you'll probably need 11-12kw of solar for 100% offset, (18,000/1.5). Any reputable solar dealer can help you calculate this very accurately.

[santafe2]

Re: Hawaii photovoltaic going exponential: Oahu more installs in a year than in previous decade, Kauai to get 50% of daytime load by 2015

We now have a skilled workforce that knows how to procure and install the photovoltaics. That is what the subsidies were for. Now that the price is collapsing, and Hawaii has passed UNsubsidized grid parity, I expect the subsidies to be phased out rapidly.

The solar industry is suggesting a 5-7 year phase out of subsidies in Hawaii. It will be a good plan for HECO and other utilities to build out their own solar plants to replace oil based electricity. They may be doing that but we are not involved in large public projects so I'm not on top of this. Doing this and charging more for interconnection will do a lot to off-set the "rich vs. poor" argument.

I live in one of the poorest states in the US and our utility has aggressively built out utility owned renewable energy projects and is lobbying the Public Regulation Commission to allow them to charge a fixed amount for each kWh produced by a solar panel so infrastructure costs are not transferred to non renewable energy users. In commercial electrical rate structures this is managed with a demand charge. It's not used often in residential rate structures but should become more common. As solar becomes more prevalent, these cost structures will be developed everywhere.

It's not unlike charging those of us driving electric vehicles a tax based on our mileage so transportation infrastructures are supported.

[doom&gloom]

Re: Hawaii photovoltaic going exponential: Oahu more installs in a year than in previous decade, Kauai to get 50% of daytime load by 2015

I donīt know. I havenīt studied it. I am trying to write a documented work about the energy policy of our guv.
So far they are investing 742 million U$ in a combined cycle gas generating unit and plan to invest 120 million annually for 15 years in a liquid to gas converting unit. My calculations at 4% NPV are about 1200 million if paid upfront.
At 2000 million I am sure they could gradually install a PV system (a number of generating stations, that is) of about the same 500 MW capacity (that is 2000 Mw peak) with the "small" difference that sunlight is free.
Maybe thatīs the reason; sun doesnīt pay commissions (grafts).
On top of that there is PCO. How much shall natgas cost in 15 years? Nobody knows, but I am sure much more than today.
In such 15 years we shall have a useless liquid-gas conversion station and generating unit.
Because of obsolescence as well as probably unaffordable nat gas prices.
So much for our "low corruption" country and our "poorest in the world" president.

Corruption is everywhere.

I thought hydro was supplying almost all the needs of the country for electricity.

Whenever I am in country, I always think the best public expenditure they could make would be a railroad from PdE to Colonia and points between.

[shiny!]

Re: Hawaii photovoltaic going exponential: Oahu more installs in a year than in previous decade, Kauai to get 50% of daytime load by 2015

Our dealers install several megawatts of solar PV in Phoenix and Tucson every year. Average output is 1.5-1.6 kWh per year per installed watt. That assumes a system is faced within 20 degrees of solar south and tilted at least 15 degrees. Homes in AZ tend to use a lot of energy to stay cool.

A simple metric for your location is to log into your your utility, (APS, SRP in Phoenix), and get your last 12 months kWh usage. Say you use 18,000 kWh a year, you'll probably need 11-12kw of solar for 100% offset, (18,000/1.5). Any reputable solar dealer can help you calculate this very accurately.

This is helpful. Thanks!

About how many panels would that be?