Warning: The mining boom is fading fast

[Rajiv]

Re: Warning: The mining boom is fading fast

This is from the IAEA -- They base it on what would be the highest quality ores currently available. The Australian study is better, because it uses the overall ore mix that is currently being used. The IAEA study was published in 2002, and relies on a study of older reactors (It is documenting the history, as opposed to the current state!) The Australian Study is much more upfront about its assumptions than the studies you cited -- and hence is more believable. The two studies you cited just throw out numbers with none of the detailed assumptions, data and the mathematics of the conversion.

The point of the original article I posted, was that as we continue mining -- we are moving towards poorer quality ores, and that increases the total burden.

The solar cell wiki I am more comfortable with -- as lower cost ($ and Kcal) solar cells are going to be produced. If silicon based, there are no ore issues for silicon extraction - only energy ones. The energy payback period will soon go below one year. There is a likelihood of carbon based solar cells in the intermediate future also. Further silicon nanowire solar cells are on the horizon as well.

Currently, it is the cost of production ($) of solar cells that is keeping back the widespread usage. This has been dropping, but with new technologies, it is likely to become competitive with conventional electricity production.

[Andreuccio]

Re: Warning: The mining boom is fading fast

So this means the solar panel can pay back for itself within 1.5 to 3.5 years?

Hardly what i heard - solar panels are very expensive?

I believe he's talking about the newest solar technologies. I remember reading about the thin film panels fairly recently, within the last year. The older panels have a much longer payback time.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: mining - the next bubble?

I also like the service providers better than the oil companies. The old sell the shovels to the miner philosophy. Part of the reason is that oil companies are susceptible to being nationalized, the service providers, not

However, I do like holding the actual miners of uranium since, by and large, they are in friendlier, western countries, i.e Canada and Australia. And offer lots of leverage through the arbitrage between cost of production and spot price, as well as bonar hedging..

Solar has some small role to play but it is a side show, like many other alternatives. Solar panels on residential rooftops have some role to play but to your earlier point, they are expensive and take well over 10 years to amortize. Then on top up it, what homeowner is going to put aside a maintenance fund to replace them at the end of their capital lives. Which means to me, that after 50 years or so, we'll have a lot of decrepit solar panels on rooftops scattered around the country.

Nuclear is the only alternative power source that can do the heavy lifting required to power a modern, intensive industrial economy. And when the dreamers talk about an all hydrogen economy, that is actually a misnomer. You can't do hydrogen without nuclear generated electricity to make the hydrogen.

By the way, to iTulip's point about bubbles needing government assistance, I am hearing that perhaps the only bill that has enough bipartisan support to actually pass Congress and get Bush' signature is the energy bill, which apparently has lots of incentives and subsidies for various alternative energy sources.

[bill]

Re: mining - the next bubble?

By the way, to iTulip's point about bubbles needing government assistance, I am hearing that perhaps the only bill that has enough bipartisan support to actually pass Congress and get Bush' signature is the energy bill, which apparently has lots of incentives and subsidies for various alternative energy sources.

Comparison of economy-wide cap-and-trade proposals in the 110th Congress. (October 2007)

[metalman]

Re: mining - the next bubble?

Comparison of economy-wide cap-and-trade proposals in the 110th Congress. (October 2007)

wow. 100+ posts here today. all of them good. how the heck am i supposed to keep up?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: mining - the next bubble?

wow. 100+ posts here today. all of them good. how the heck am i supposed to keep up?

metalman,

Interesting statistic, where did you come across it? If you snooze here, you do lose.

[metalman]

Re: mining - the next bubble?

metalman,

Interesting statistic, where did you come across it? If you snooze here, you do lose.

i was guessing. did a "new posts" search and it came up with 19 threads. each had a several posts. did quick math, may be wrong.

[FRED]

Re: mining - the next bubble?

i was guessing. did a "new posts" search and it came up with 19 threads. each had a several posts. did quick math, may be wrong.

Fair guess, metalman. Here are the statistics on the number of posts from the past three days:

[Andreuccio]

Re: mining - the next bubble?

wow. 100+ posts here today. all of them good. how the heck am i supposed to keep up?

A few months ago Fred was talking about ways to coax the thousands of lurkers into becoming active posters. Good luck wading through that if his plans ever come to fruition.

[Andreuccio]

Re: mining - the next bubble?

Fair guess, metalman. Here are the statistics on the number of posts from the past three days:

"Fair Guess"?!? Any closer and we'd be calling him Rainman instead of Metalman.

[GRG55]

Re: mining - the next bubble?

"Fair Guess"?!? Any closer and we'd be calling him Rainman instead of Metalman.

Hey metalman: Care to let us in on where oil, gold and the Dow finish '08?

[c1ue]

Re: Warning: The mining boom is fading fast

Hey metalman: Care to let us in on where oil, gold and the Dow finish '08?

If metalman says, "hit", don't do it

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: mining - the next bubble?

Every forum in the world probably has a 90/10 ration of lurkers vs. active participants.

But I've got a suggestion to get more people to participate: Could we consider upgrading the forum format to the more modern style used by many others. Immensely easier to navigate.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: mining - the next bubble?

Every forum in the world probably has a 90/10 ration of lurkers vs. active participants.

But I've got a suggestion to get more people to participate: Could we consider upgrading the forum format to the more modern style used by many others. Immensely easier to navigate.

Sunny, I see nothing wrong with the format as it is. If you learn how to use it, it is easy. I hate change.

[GRG55]

Re: mining - the next bubble?

If the shortage - pricing scenario becomes durable (lasts for a few years) then we'll see a replay of the petroleum situation going on now. More nationalization of assets in developing countries, more taxes and royalties in the jurisdictions with property rights protection. The large hard-rock mining companies currently have a MUCH bigger problem replacing the reserves they are producing out today than Big Oil. That's one of the reasons mining sector M&A (Inco, Falconbridge, Alcan, etc) has run ahead of anything similar in the oil sector (for now).

The services side may be the safer bet in the same way the offshore drillers and other oil services companies have outperformed Big Oil.

Well today's BHP-Rio Tinto story (back on page one after first being sited there in early-May this year) seems another indicator of the above.

Are we getting near a cyclical top in the base metals? Sure looks like it.