War with Iran coming soon ?

[don]

Cognitive Dissonance on Parade

"There is no country on earth that would tolerate missiles raining down on its citizens from outside its borders."

President Barack "I never saw a predator drone I didn't like" Obama

Regardless of what one thinks of the ME situation, this is our Orwellian Nightmare in Full Flower . . .

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Cognitive Dissonance on Parade

A couple things about that article Don:

1.)Iron Dome is designed to intercept ONLY rockets that are projected to hit populated areas......no point in needlessly intercepting thousands of rockets that cost $1000 each with missiles that cost $50,000.

Only intercept the rockets with a chance of taking lives or destroying property.

Performance by Iron Dome seems to be pretty good so far.

2.)I would think Israel moving quickly towards negotiation may have more to do with two things:

*the need for the Israeli economy to go from "war economy" to "peace economy" as quickly as possible due to the fundamental makeup of the Israeli Defense Force and major military operations disrupting it.

*the understanding by the Israeli government that they are facing a far worse threat from persistent danger close asymmetric threats that will NOT go away..so they need to(be seen) suing quickly for peace in case

than an inability to decisively nullify the threat(due to political reasons as being seen to being a bully).

3.)The article is completely wrong in stating Israel is unable to accurately identity launch sites...this capability has existed since the 1950's called counter battery radar.

The problem is you can't call for counter battery fire when the launch sites are intentionally set up in high density residential areas in HOPES of Israel blowing up a bunch of kids.

As I stated previously, I see Israel quickly ramping up and then ramping down it's efforts to attrit Hamas rocket attack teams and inventory....temporarily....like the analogy I used before.....doing some weeding.

4.)What I find strange is the whole Egypt/Turkey thing.

Egypt has the most influence at the moment, in no small part due to it being at the centre of the Arab entertainment and media world.

But I would think Turkey has far greater potential to be the most influential regional Muslim country due to it's diverse economy, strong military, relationships with NATO, strategic location, etc.

Egypt on the other hand has the makings of Iranian Revolution 2.0 and/or Pakistan perpetually failing state.

Turkey's government seems a bit like Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction at times when it comes to Israel.....the aggression coming from Ankara, especially considering the exceptionally close relationship recently held between Israel/Turkey, is bizarre.

5.) And that's where I see the greatest risk to Israel is being surrounded by failing/failed/soon to fail states in the form of Palestinian Territories, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, and even risk in Jordan.

It wasn't until decolonialization by UK/France followed by instability in the 60's and the implosion/surrender of Portugal's African legacy colonies did it result in the rising tide of inevitable defeat for Rhodesia/South Africa years later when combined with western sanctions.

I'm on a bit of a Rhodesia/South Africa 60's/70's/80's kick at the moment.....I had some quite enlightening discussions with some Rhodesian/Zimbabweans recently in Kabul.

The situation with Israel and it's borders is probably apples/oranges compared to Southern Africa......but there may also be some striking similarities.

You can win literally ALL of the battles, but still lose the asymmetric, media, and political war.

[don]

Re: Cognitive Dissonance on Parade

And that's where I see the greatest risk to Israel is being surrounded by failing/failed/soon to fail states in the form of Palestinian Territories, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, and even risk in Jordan.

Be careful what you wish for . . .

Israel's internal contradiction are complex and not easily solved.

[photon555]

Reply to thread

First of all, there is no moral equivalency here. Hamas desperately wants civilian casualties on its own side while Israel does its best to minimize them. Apparently the writer regrets there are so few Israeli civilian casualties compared to the Palestinians. The writer's projection that it is the Palestinian issue driving Islamist hatred for Israel is sadly naive. The Islamists hate Israel and Jews, period. That is not going to change in our lifetimes. Even if the US were to evacuate all Jews from the Mideast and give them New Jersey, it would not placate these people. They would come over here after the Jews and us. Oh wait, they're already done that. Land for peace has not worked. It didn't work with Hitler. It will not work with the Islamofacists. The entire land for peace theory is deeply flawed because of the cultural inertia of hatred on the Islamist's side. To believe otherwise is wishful thinking. Right now the nations surrounding Israel are like an alcoholic sitting at a bar with a glass of 100 proof whiskey in front of them. They've been sober so long they have forgotten why they went on the wagon. Soon enough they will reach out for that glass. They will attack Israel and get their heads handed to them once again. But this time it is to be hoped that Israel has learned from the past two decades that land for peace is an illusion. Instead they will put as much land between them and their enemies as they can for buffer zones. Whether that strategy would work or not cannot be known in advance. It does have the singular advantage that it is NOT the current failed land for peace strategy.

[Shakespear]

Re: Reply to thread

2.)I would think Israel moving quickly towards negotiation may have more to do with two things:

*the need for the Israeli economy to go from "war economy" to "peace economy" as quickly as possible due to the fundamental makeup of the Israeli Defense Force and major military operations disrupting it.

I strongly doubt the above will be the reason. The wealfare package is too good.

Israel is the largest cumulative recipient of U.S. foreign assistance since World War II. To date,
the United States has provided Israel $115 billion in bilateral assistance. Almost all U.S. bilateral
aid to Israel is in the form of military assistance, although in the past Israel also received
significant economic assistance. Strong congressional support for Israel has resulted in Israel
receiving benefits not available to any other countries; for example, Israel can use some U.S.
military assistance both for research and development in the United States and for military
purchases from Israeli manufacturers. In addition, all U.S. assistance earmarked for Israel is
delivered in the first 30 days of the fiscal year, while most other recipients normally receive aid in
installments. In addition to receiving U.S. State Department-administered foreign assistance,
Israel also receives funds from annual defense appropriations bills for joint U.S.-Israeli missile
defense programs.

In 2007, the Bush Administration and the Israeli government agreed to a 10-year, $30 billion
military aid package that gradually will raise Israel’s annual Foreign Military Financing grant
from a baseline of nearly $2.55 billion in FY2009 to approximately $3.1 billion for FY2013
through FY2018. For FY2013, the Obama Administration is requesting $3.1 billion in FMF to
Israel.

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33222.pdf

[lakedaemonian]

Re: War with Iran coming soon ?

When you add up the following:

1)many tens of thousands of man days of economically productive civilian labour converted to non-economically productive military reservists hurrying up to sit around and wait

2)impact from reduced consumer confidence, sentiment, and activity

3)non budgeted military and government spending

This forum has covered the brk

[lakedaemonian]

Re: War with Iran coming soon ?

This forum has covered the broken window fallacy pretty well.

Maybe we could add a vandalism fallacy as well.

US aid to Israel has a lot of benefits to both countries, but if we look at Israel as being a bit like a corporate subsidized McDonald's franchise located in a bad neighborhood, you have to sell a whole lot of extra Big Macs and Happy Meals, and receive a whole lot of corporate subsidies to pay for all of that extra security and repair all of that vandalism.

Remember, a billion dollars doesn't go anywhere near as far as it used to.

[shiny!]

Re: Reply to thread

First of all, there is no moral equivalency here. Hamas desperately wants civilian casualties on its own side while Israel does its best to minimize them. Apparently the writer regrets there are so few Israeli civilian casualties compared to the Palestinians. The writer's projection that it is the Palestinian issue driving Islamist hatred for Israel is sadly naive. The Islamists hate Israel and Jews, period. That is not going to change in our lifetimes. Even if the US were to evacuate all Jews from the Mideast and give them New Jersey, it would not placate these people. They would come over here after the Jews and us. Oh wait, they're already done that. Land for peace has not worked. It didn't work with Hitler. It will not work with the Islamofacists. The entire land for peace theory is deeply flawed because of the cultural inertia of hatred on the Islamist's side. To believe otherwise is wishful thinking. Right now the nations surrounding Israel are like an alcoholic sitting at a bar with a glass of 100 proof whiskey in front of them. They've been sober so long they have forgotten why they went on the wagon. Soon enough they will reach out for that glass. They will attack Israel and get their heads handed to them once again. But this time it is to be hoped that Israel has learned from the past two decades that land for peace is an illusion. Instead they will put as much land between them and their enemies as they can for buffer zones. Whether that strategy would work or not cannot be known in advance. It does have the singular advantage that it is NOT the current failed land for peace strategy.

You said it better than I could.

Israel took land for buffer zones in the Six Day War and were pressured to give it back in land-for-peace arrangements. If they do it again, the international community will once again demand that Israel negotiate with terrorists, knowing that the terrorists have no intention of giving up until Israel is gone and every Jew is dead.