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Eric Sprott: Western Central Banks Have No More Gold. Only Gold Receivables

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  • Eric Sprott: Western Central Banks Have No More Gold. Only Gold Receivables

    Bloomberg has released a MUST WATCH interview with our good friend Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management discussing his thoughts on gold. While unable to specifically discuss silver due to the current PSLV follow-on, Sprott simply destroyed the MSM pundits’ anti-gold arguments, stating that gold has beat the Dickens out of every other asset class over the last 12 years, and questioned whether the Western Central Banks have any physical gold left in the vaults, as the gold listed on their balance sheets includes gold receivables, which has been leased out and is gone for good.The legendary Eric Sprott’s full MUST WATCH interview below:
    Bloomberg kicked the interview off by asking Sprott whether he is as much a fan of precious metals today as he once was, ”given the fact that they’ve treated you so poorly over the past 18 months?” Sprott replied:
    A little history is probably important here. Gold has gone from $250 to over $1700. It’s beat the Dickens out of every other asset class over the last 12 years…To specifically answer your question, am I more optimistic today than I might otherwise be? Absolutely. I wrote an article recently questioning whether the Western Central Banks had any gold left. We simply did a physical analysis of the people that are coming into the gold market and the changes that have happened since 2000, (and the supply of gold has not changed since 2000 on an annual basis, it’s still 4,000 tons). When you look at the fact that the central banks used to sell 400 tons annually, now they buy 500 tons. The ETF didn’t even exist in 2000, now they buy 300 tons a year.
    The Bloomberg host then interrupted Sprott to claim that this sounds like a conspiracy theory and asked for another reason to buy gold. Sprott responded:
    I could probably give you 20 reasons. How about money printing? QE1, QE2, QE3, LTRO, OMT’s, people are essentially debasing their currencies. They’re not holding them in the esteem that they should, and it’s reflected in the fact that the price of gold’s gone up. One of the issues we have with gold is the fact that it hasn’t performed well in the last 18 months…But People are flocking to gold. When I look at the US Mint statistics for gold sales. When I look at what the Chinese are doing in terms of imports of gold from Hong Kong into the mainland, they’re up 500 tons in the last 12 months in a 4,000 ton market!! Imagine if the Chinese bought an extra 12% of the oil or wheat market this year! Would they get it? And who’s supplying the 500 tons? We already had a market that was in balance!
    Gold production is flat, and one might even argue that the gold miners may have trouble increasing production this year. You’ve seen the disappointments of Barrick and Newmont, and many others are having issues.
    The Bloomberg host then asked Sprott why the gold price hasn’t responded to those supply and demand factors. Sprott responded:
    Well, there’s two markets for gold. There’s the paper market, the COMEX futures. You can have the annual gold production trade in two days on the paper market. I focus on the physical market. I want to see what people are doing with their money physically. Are they continuing to buy more and more gold, year after year? Every indication we have is that they continue to buy INCREASING AMOUNTS OF GOLD. Sooner or later, (and ask Eric asked, how do the central banks sell gold without telling anybody?), they have a very simple way: Central banks have one line on their balance sheets for gold and gold receivables! If they lease gold to a bullion dealer, that’s a receivable. That gold has obviously been sold into the market, but we can’t tell what’s real gold and what’s receivable (on the central bank balance sheets).
    http://www.silverdoctors.com/eric-sp...d-receivables/

    The hoarding of gold on the part of central banks is quite an important part of itulip's investment thesis. Is this a reason for a rethink on that front?
    "It's not the end of the world, but you can see it from here." - Deus Ex HR

  • #2
    Re: Eric Sprott: Western Central Banks Have No More Gold. Only Gold Receivables

    Originally posted by NCR85 View Post
    http://www.silverdoctors.com/eric-sp...d-receivables/

    The hoarding of gold on the part of central banks is quite an important part of itulip's investment thesis. Is this a reason for a rethink on that front?
    I don't know if he makes this point clearly enough. The fed lends gold into the market, but the actual bars never leave the vault. His point is that the lent out gold has been sold. If so the buyer is the one who will take the hit not the bank.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Eric Sprott: Western Central Banks Have No More Gold. Only Gold Receivables

      Originally posted by NCR85 View Post
      http://www.silverdoctors.com/eric-sp...d-receivables/

      The hoarding of gold on the part of central banks is quite an important part of itulip's investment thesis. Is this a reason for a rethink on that front?
      I don't think so.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Eric Sprott: Western Central Banks Have No More Gold. Only Gold Receivables

        Originally posted by globaleconomicollaps View Post
        I don't know if he makes this point clearly enough. The fed lends gold into the market, but the actual bars never leave the vault. His point is that the lent out gold has been sold. If so the buyer is the one who will take the hit not the bank.
        Unless the buyer took delivery of those bars. However, if you want to artificially increase the supply of gold onto the market, there's certainly an incentive to set up ETFs that are backed by gold leased from a central bank / treasury that can never leave their vaults.

        Afaik. this would involve the treasury in the US, as the FED doesn't own any physical gold.

        In my opinion, the real problem is that gold swaps/receivables and physical gold are not separated on balance sheets of central banks. The mere fact that they aren't seems to imply that central banks have something to hide... I'm curious to know what EJ thinks of this fact (beyond the point whether the central bank carries the risk or the party who think they owns the leased gold in question).
        Last edited by FrankL; November 15, 2012, 03:27 AM.
        engineer with little (or even no) economic insight

        Comment


        • #5
          Fed does have some Gold!

          Originally posted by FrankL View Post

          Afaik. this would involve the treasury in the US, as the FED doesn't own any physical gold.

          .
          The fed does own some gold. You can see some of it if you visit their NY location.

          Comment


          • #6
            Gold bar fraud?

            Originally posted by globaleconomicollaps View Post
            I don't know if he makes this point clearly enough. The fed lends gold into the market, but the actual bars never leave the vault. His point is that the lent out gold has been sold. If so the buyer is the one who will take the hit not the bank.

            Has this ever happened before? That is, title to gold bars sold, but the bars still belong to the CB? Would not the middle man have committed fraud, and be subject to prosecution?

            Rikkards is of the opinion that the fed and treasury really have the gold they claim. But his only argument seems to be "they have it". No one can point to an audit or inventory done in the last 40 years.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Gold bar fraud?

              Originally posted by Polish_Silver View Post
              Has this ever happened before? That is, title to gold bars sold, but the bars still belong to the CB? Would not the middle man have committed fraud, and be subject to prosecution?

              Rikkards is of the opinion that the fed and treasury really have the gold they claim. But his only argument seems to be "they have it". No one can point to an audit or inventory done in the last 40 years.
              Gold confiscated in 1933 was melted down from coins and jewelry without regard to proper standards. Those bars do not meet "good delivery" standards ( 995.0 parts per thousand fine gold ). If those bars are seen to circulate, it can be inferred that the fed and/or treasury is selling gold into the market. This is why the recent revelations about the German gold drew so much attention. I think Antal Fekete wrote an article about this years ago.

              http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...ven-bundesbank
              U.S. Assay Office Gold Bars

              1. We have from time to time had occasion to draw the Americans’ attention of the poor standards of finish of U.S. Assay Office bars. In addition in 1961 we passed on to them comments from Johnson Matthey to the effect that spectrographic examination did not support the claimed assay on one bar they had so tested (although they would not by normal processes have challenged the assay) and that impurities in the bar included iron which caused some material to be retained on the sides of crucible after pouring.

              2. Recently, Johnson Matthey have put 172 “bad delivery” U.S. Assay Office bars into good delivery form for account of the Deutsche Bundesbank. These bars formed part of recent shipments by the Federal Reserve Bank to provide gold in London in repayment of swaps with the Bundesbank. The out-turn of the re-melting showed a loss in fine ounces terms four times greater than the gross weight loss. Asked to comment Johnson Matthey have indicated verbally that

              Comment


              • #8
                Another Link to Sprott

                Another link to Sprott:

                http://www.silverdoctors.com/eric-sp...d-receivables/

                I still don't get how gold leasing means the CB's don't own the gold, or can't get it back. If the gold is "recievable" doesn't that mean it will come back to them at some point?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Another Link to Sprott

                  Originally posted by Polish_Silver View Post
                  Another link to Sprott:

                  http://www.silverdoctors.com/eric-sp...d-receivables/

                  I still don't get how gold leasing means the CB's don't own the gold, or can't get it back. If the gold is "receivable" doesn't that mean it will come back to them at some point?
                  I think I posted this when it came out:
                  http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...530#post240530

                  here is the original article:
                  http://www.sprott.com/markets-at-a-g...any-gold-left/

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Another Link to Sprott

                    The Gold Question needs to be aired out a bit, methinks.

                    Gold is a commodity with several attractive features:

                    it isn't always consumed, like other commodities - though bars melted into jewelry comes close
                    for its value retention, its compact, unlike wheat or oil, allowing individuals to add physical gold to their portfolio

                    an unattractive feature of gold is it can be manipulated like other commodities

                    It our fiat money world, the current value of gold vis a vis that system is where the confusion seems to lie. In a gold-backed currency world gold has an exponentially more powerful presence. In our fiat currency world, its magical properties are more illusory than real. The overwhelming conventional force of the US military is exponentially more powerful to the dollar than gold.

                    Over time the above may be played out and gold might have a role in a new currency regime. That hasn't happened yet and might not in our lifetimes. It pays to think clearly about the yellow metal.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Another Link to Sprott

                      Originally posted by Polish_Silver View Post
                      Another link to Sprott:

                      http://www.silverdoctors.com/eric-sp...d-receivables/

                      I still don't get how gold leasing means the CB's don't own the gold, or can't get it back. If the gold is "recievable" doesn't that mean it will come back to them at some point?
                      It only comes back if the counterparty can supply the leased gold when the lease contract ends, OR if, for example, the gold doesn't leave the vault and ownership returns legally to the central bank.

                      That's why I said that, when you would want to artificially increase the gold supply, there's an incentive to set up an ETF that buys gold from an intermediary party that leases the gold from a central bank, where gold in question will never leave the vault.

                      When the lease contract ends, and the 'game is up', the central bank will reclaim legal ownership of the gold in question. To avoid lawsuits about who really owns the gold, it would be even better when the ETF has terms of contract where shares can be settled in USD if gold is not available for some reason or another.
                      Last edited by FrankL; November 16, 2012, 10:25 AM.
                      engineer with little (or even no) economic insight

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Fed does have some Gold!

                        Originally posted by Polish_Silver View Post
                        The fed does own some gold. You can see some of it if you visit their NY location.
                        You mean the gold stored HERE?
                        Nearly 98% of the gold at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is owned by the central banks of foreign nations. The rest is owned by the United States and international organizations such as the IMF. The Federal Reserve Bank does not own the gold
                        engineer with little (or even no) economic insight

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Another Link to Sprott

                          Originally posted by don View Post
                          ... an unattractive feature of gold is it can be manipulated like other commodities
                          That's not a 'feature' of gold.

                          That is a function of a wildcat fiat currency system run by oligarchs with no enforced rules and regulations in which sleepy citizens are unwitting participants and cheerleaders.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Another Link to Sprott

                            Originally posted by Fiat Currency View Post
                            That's not a 'feature' of gold.

                            That is a function of a wildcat fiat currency system run by oligarchs with no enforced rules and regulations in which sleepy citizens are unwitting participants and cheerleaders.
                            You seemed to think "feature" means only positive.

                            His features were shockingly ugly.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Another Link to Sprott

                              Originally posted by don View Post
                              You seemed to think "feature" means only positive.

                              His features were shockingly ugly.
                              Since I quoted you properly with "unattractive feature" ... I thought that your point was clear.

                              I merely highlighted the line, as I felt it diminished owning/buying gold. Whenever I can find an asset that I believe to undervalued (due to manipulation, gov't meddling, unintended consequences etc.) I am inclined to be a buyer for the longer term ROI. Obviously your mileage will vary and risk cannot be eliminated. I still think the risk 'feature' you highlighted belongs not to gold - but government.

                              Having said that ... I wouldn't want to be "All In" with anybody's fiat or Au.

                              Comment

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