Gold passes 800 dollars an ounce

[touchring]

Re: Gold passes 800 dollars an ounce

btw, jim rogers seems to favor silver over gold. Any opinions on this?

[Guest]

Re: Gold passes 800 dollars an ounce

Touchring -

Apologies for my former reply that "silver was too dangerous for you", which I admit is facetious, and I regret. Actually it's also incorrect. Silver looks like a very good asset to add to one's portfolio, and should be a component in everyone's investments.

Zoog volunteered to you that my remark was condescending (very perspicacious of him!). Actually he missed the nuance - it was sarcastic. The reason it was sarcastic, and I apologise for indulging the mild pique which prompted that, is that I posted a short article about silver and your reply was to ask the community at large "over my head" whether they thought my submittal of this article for your consideration was hot air or not.

It may or may not be hot air, but I thought any normal response around here would be to refer any question you might have right back to the original poster instead.

The affectation of referring your follow up question to "some mid-point in the air over my shoulder" to me seemed a bit silly, as that would be an unnecessarily circuitous search for more information about the posted article. A curiously diffident response.

This chart represents a technician's view of the juncture of silver. It does not encompass any fundamental or macro arguments. The chart attempted to submit to your attention that silver, when observed from a chartists perspective, looks to be at quite an interesting juncture, after more than a year's long consolidation.

My "native intuition" was that a normal friendly reply here might have asked the poster for their further view rather than addressing the question generically over their head to others as though the original post appeared somewhat laughable. You added a derisory grin for good measure so that impression was reinforced. Maybe I was mistaken? Perhaps I can best remedy that by further expressing to you my respect?

Zoog is piqued at me ever since I expressed sincere best wishes to him for the sale of his home. He's quite sore right now that he didn't sell it two years ago into a robust market and is indulging a regrettable pique towards what he mistakenly percieved as someone "patronizing him" by wishing him well.

In truth, I was quite sincerely offering up best wishes to Zoog that he might accomplish his goal of selling and putting more funds into gold and silver, but as is quintessentially human, apparently his pique at mistiming the purchase of a home at the top of the market requires him to find someone to resent in compensation. I've been respectful and appreciative of Zoog on every other occasion so I'm a bit at a loss. My sense is he's "adopted" me for that purpose, although I did not ask for that thankless role.

As for your original question about silver, I note curiously you've still not addressed any follow up question on that topic to me, despite my being the one who posted the head's up? Curious method of inquiry ...

Despite being crusty at times, I'm instinctively kind towards anyone in distress, by natural inclination. I dislike fatcats who give themselves airs, and I intensly dislike any trace condescenscion or pomposity. You can be assured therefore my comment above was not guilty of the conventional sin of condescension. Rather, it was a comment upon your curiously stilted form of address in reply to this post.

Here's the skinny on why Jim Rogers like's silver - it's a really sophisticated concept to grasp though - Silver is a lot cheaper than gold.

[zoog]

Re: Gold passes 800 dollars an ounce

Zoog volunteered to you that my remark was condescending (very perspicacious of him!). Actually he missed the nuance - it was sarcastic.

Lukester, you really have a chip on your shoulder. My observation about condescending was directed towards Clive Maund, not you.

Clive Maund
If you have ever wanted your child to study Technical Analysis so that they can become a millionaire like you, instead of maybe ending up living off you for half their lives and bringing their washing home etc, but have not summoned up the courage to attempt to introduce the subject to them, because of fears of their eyes glazing over when confronted with lots of squiggly lines and a barrage of esoteric indicators, now is your chance because even a 7-year old can grasp what we are going to look at in this article today.

I've found Maund's analysis interesting in the past. However I don't really care for what I perceive to be a condescending attitude here. I would not consider investing in silver to be child's play.

[bart]

Re: Gold passes 800 dollars an ounce

Question is, is Gold over bought? (in the short term) and can we expect an "1929" or "1987" Stock crash over the next few days?
Mike

Personally, I don't think so. Both gold & silver have a long history of confounding overbought and oversold indicators, and making explosive moves.

[Guest]

Re: Gold passes 800 dollars an ounce

Zoog - I really mean well you know. Please accept my sincere best wishes and solidarity.

With regard to your clarification about who you thought was being condescending above, your word is entirely sufficient for me and I accept it gladly. I must have made a terrible mistake.

If you point out there is no trace of resentment in my regard for offering you best wishes on a home sale, then I offer you my sincere apology in that regard as well. The main thing is for people to be sincere and "straight-up", if they are, misunderstandings are then quickly cleared up and amends are made. Also, if I'm wrong, I always try to be the first to admit it as that is the road to good character.

Regarding silver, perhaps Touchring should be alerted it's up six percent in three business days. An eighteen month long consolidation does not come along every week. Pooled account paper silver is "problematic" and should be researched before one parks long term holdings in it.

My apologies to you Zoog.

[zoog]

Re: Gold passes 800 dollars an ounce

I have always assumed that everyone's comments and encouragement about me trying to sell my house have been sincere. I do appreciate the kind words. Selling two years ago would have meant.... not buying two years ago.:eek: I'd rather not be in this position at this point in time. However, if I can sell the house anywhere remotely close to my asking price, I will have more money after closing than I would have by now if I had not bought the house and instead bought gold with my tiny downpayment. Investing with leverage can provide some impressive returns, as long as you get out in time. I was ignorant of the risks of leverage at the time. Now I know better, and I also know the market is heading down. So the situation is... uncomfortable. I am, however, in no danger of defaulting and only minimal danger of going underwater should selling drag out a few years. I'd rather it didn't take that long, as I would love to put money into gold and silver and other investments. (I do have small positions in a couple silver miners.)

My response to touchring was simply to point out that silver is more volatile than gold, and one should be aware of the way silver moves over time. In theory, based on what has happened in the past, silver will outperform gold. However, not everyone will be comfortable with the sudden downswings along the way. I'd hate for anyone to invest in silver without understanding the risks, just as I did not understand the risks of taking on a mortgage.

[Guest]

Re: Gold passes 800 dollars an ounce

Zoog -

I think you are a good egg. You've got me squarely in your corner and I'm rooting for you. I'll even rummage around for some more bad jokes about Oregonians shooting Californians to cheer you up.

[zoog]

Re: Gold passes 800 dollars an ounce

Zoog -

I think you are a good egg. You've got me squarely in your corner and I'm rooting for you. I'll even rummage around for some more bad jokes about Oregonians shooting Californians to cheer you up.

Hey it's only because you all keep moving up here and driving our real estate prices beyond our reach. What are poor treehuggers to do?

Below, I have tabulated the cost of renting a Uhaul truck one way from the four major population centres of California, to other cities out of California. And also the other way around.

The higher the disparity between From and To costs between a pair of cities. More people are moving From, as compared to those who are moving To.

	San Francisco		Los Angeles		San Diego		Sacramento
	To	From	To	From	To	From	To	From
Portland	$1483	$199	$2078	$199	$1438	$199	$1528	$199

http://www.housingbubblebust.com/UHa...alifornia.html

[Guest]

Re: Gold passes 800 dollars an ounce

Only thing to do Zoog is start talking in So-Cal-Speak and join 'em.

"Like dude, have you noticed a half dozen Callie's moved onto our street this year? Awesome - we're moving up in the world!"

[Spartacus]

Re: Gold passes 800 dollars an ounce

From what I've read, and I think you can see it in his chart, silver tends to go along for quite a while without any appreciable gains. Then, as gold is having a particularly exciting run-up, speculators finally jump into silver and it shoots up. Unfortunately, it then tends to drop quickly as well, as all the speculators take their profits. Thus it is a difficult investment to try to time jumping in and jumping out during those rare, brief super spikes. And a buy-and-hold investor may find themselves perpetually emotional: worried as silver does nothing while gold steadily ticks up, ecstatic when silver goes for the moon, then terrified as it plummets through several levels of support. Then worried as it fumbles along doing nothing... etc.
.

that's what happened in the last Ag/Au bull

The current bull started the opposite - Silver steadily and consistently outperforming gold for several years.

This outperformance stopped this year, and a few commentators are now saying "oh, we're repeating the last bull" - somehow they've forgotten the last 4 years that disprove the hypothesis, and prefer to remember 30 year old events, which are now to guide us going forward. Doesn't pass the sniff test, so I call BS.

Absolutely no guarantee that the last (70s) bull experience will happen again.

Silver is more volatile, absolutely - but there's no magic that does this - it's what you would expect from Silver being a smaller market - in the same way that RHAT is more volatile than IBM.

[Spartacus]

Re: Gold passes 800 dollars an ounce

Thanks. I think i'll just bet a few thousands paper silver, part of diversification. I'm not looking into daily price fluctuation. When silver comes out on mainstream newspapers, that's probably when i start tracking again.

In the last bull, I believe Silver only made a splash in US media at the very last run-up. It would have been too late to make much.

Remember that Silver is not a big market. 5 years ago IBM's market cap could buy all the Silver mining companies a thousand times over (only a slight exaggeration) - so I don't see much reason for US major media to make a big deal of it.

Anyway, it has gotten some play - Kramer recommended PAAS last year.

And just FYI It is "mainstream" in parts of Canada.

On significant up moves the radio finance segment says Dow down xxx TSX down yyy Gold up xxx Silver up 10xxx (or whatever)

(We listen to the radio when we're sledding from igloo to igloo, and bidding on Vancouver condos)

[touchring]

Re: Gold passes 800 dollars an ounce

My response to touchring was simply to point out that silver is more volatile than gold, and one should be aware of the way silver moves over time. In theory, based on what has happened in the past, silver will outperform gold. However, not everyone will be comfortable with the sudden downswings along the way. I'd hate for anyone to invest in silver without understanding the risks, just as I did not understand the risks of taking on a mortgage.

Appreciate (everyone) for your concerns. I'm a bit aware of silver quick movements, but i think i'll make just a smallish punt, and take a medium term approach - not going to monitor silver prices on a day to day basis.

In view of the bad state of SIVs, citibank, and the housing market, i think the Feds has to keep pumping money to prevent the system from collapsing.

[grapejelly]

Re: Gold passes 800 dollars an ounce

silver tends to lag and then go parabolic, then drop off a cliff. Is that happening on the latest gold thrust? Maybe...

It is a bit scary.

[Guest]

Re: Gold passes 800 dollars an ounce

AKA - THE POLITICS OF INSTITUTIONAL DENIAL

Gold's Infallible Indicator - Six Months Later By James Turk Nov 7 2007 12:19PM www.goldmoney.com Exactly six months ago I wrote about an indicator that has predicted with 100% accuracy when the price of gold was about to rise. The entire article can be read here: http://www.kitco.com/commentary/old/..._may072007.htm Over the years, this indicator has been one of my favorites. It has been so good that I call it “gold’s infallible indicator”. True to form, this indicator is still scoring 100%. The indicator is very simple. It is based on articles about gold in The Economist magazine. As I wrote six months ago: “The Economist rarely writes about gold, but when it does, start buying. It has an uncanny knack for publishing unswervingly bearish articles on gold just before the price heads higher.” The last article about gold by The Economist appeared on April 8th, when gold was trading at $674.20. As of yesterday’s close, gold has risen 21.7% so far – I say “so far” for a reason. Gold’s uptrend remains intact, and no one knows when this uptrend will end. So further gains in gold are entirely possible. Here is this indicator’s record. Date Article is Published Gold Price On Date of Publication Low Gold Price After Date of Publication % Decline to Low Price After Date of Publication Subsequent High in the Gold Price Date of Subsequent High in the Gold Price % Gain from Publication Price to High Price 23 Jan 1993 $328.60 $326.30 0.7% $407.00 30 Jul 1993 23.9% 11 Sep 2003 $379.70 $369.20 2.8% $426.40 9 Jan 2004 12.3% 1 Dec 2005 $502.50 $493.00 1.9% $719.80 11 May 2007 43.2% 8 Apr 2007 $674.20 $641.70 4.8% $820.80 (so far) 6 Nov 2007 (so far) 21.7% I happen to believe that The Economist publishes some high quality material. So why is it always wrong about gold? As I note in my article six months ago: “While The Economist pretends to offer serious analysis of gold, in reality it doesn’t. It has another objective – anti-gold propaganda.” To be blunt, The Economist is a tool of the gold cartel, the activities of which are well documented by the Gold-Anti Trust Action Committee. GATA’s research is available for free at (www.GATA.org) The gold cartel has one primary objective – to make the dollar look worthy of being the world’s reserve currency. We all of course know that the dollar is not worthy of that esteemed title, but that doesn’t stop the gold cartel. One way they pursue their objective is to intervene in the gold market to keep its price low. Gold and the dollar are major competitors; they compete for holders. A low gold price makes people believe that all is well with the dollar. But the gold cartel also uses other means to pursue its nefarious goal, one of which is disinformation. The gold cartel knows as well as you and I that not only is gold money, it is the most powerful money of all because its value is not based upon someone’s promise. Gold has no counter-party risk. So it is only with reluctance that the gold cartel dishoards metal from central bank vaults. They know that once that gold is sold into the market, they are unlikely to ever get it back at current prices. It is therefore less costly for them to just disparage gold. By doing so, they hope to keep you from buying it, thereby lessening its demand. So from time to time, the gold cartel enlists anti-gold publications that favor fractional reserve banking, fiat national currency, and managed money through the central banking elite. The Economist is all of those, with the result that it sits at the top of the gold cartel’s list of friendly rags. When the gold cartel is losing control, they invariably turn to The Economist, which then dutifully spins out some disparaging piece on gold, but to no avail. Eventually the market always overwhelms government price controls. It is an unalterable reality that price controls always fail eventually, even government price controls on gold. So my conclusion is the same as the one I wrote about six months ago. “When reading about gold in The Economist, do it with a jaundiced eye, understanding that its foremost objective is to disparage gold. More importantly, when this infallible indicator flashes a buy signal, start buying.” James Turk

[jk]

Re: Gold passes 800 dollars an ounce

the economist's famous cover article, "a world awash in oil," marked the bottom for the oil price. i was foolish enough to believe it at the time.