Dean Baker Debunks Demographic Doomerism

[NCR85]

Social Security: Yahoo Just Explains It Wrong
http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/...lains-it-wrong
Graph inside that debunks any scare stories regarding US demographic changes in one handy visual. I can't retrieve the URL of the picture. Here's a transcript:

Changes in Living Standards 2012-2035 Due to Aging and Productivity Growth:
Aging: about -8%
1% Annual Productivity Growth: about 25%
1.5% Annual Productivity Growth: about 41%
2% Annual Productivity Growth: about 57%

For reference, historical US productivity growth (well over 1.5% a year though most of post-war history):

http://theunbrokenwindow.com/2008/05...-productivity/

Also via one of the commenters:

http://www.skeptometrics.org/RealDemographics.html
Ratio between workers and non-workers is more useful as a metric than ratio between workers and retirees.

[mooncliff]

Re: Dean Baker Debunks Demographic Doomerism

yes, that is possible. however, the fossil fuels and minerals are really becoming more difficult to obtain. is there no motivated reasoning here?

[NCR85]

Re: Dean Baker Debunks Demographic Doomerism

Well sure, there is also the fact that:
- a lot of the growth since about 1984 has been debt financed, since total debt to GDP began ramping up massively around that date.*
- income gains have accrued primarily to the FIRE sector and the 1% ers that control it, leaving the rest of the economy relatively less well off in a way that is not reflected by productivity numbers.

However, each of these things is capable of bringing down the economy without the help of a demographic "push". That tiny little -8% change in living standards is not going to make much of a difference, so to emphasize it is silly.

* on a tangentially related note I find it quite peculiar that this date is not mentioned more often in discussions of societal overindebtedness. It looks like a bit of a watershed moment based on total debt to GDP figures. Interesting that it comes right after Volcker's notorious interest rate high decision. Also, asset prices ramp up big time in the same period: http://cdn.debtdeflation.com/blogs/w...eReturnof1.png