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  • Student Debt Bubble Update

    Student-Loan Borrowers Average $26,500 in Debt

    By TAMAR LEWIN

    The average student-loan debt of borrowers in the college class of 2011 rose to about $26,500, a 5 percent increase from about $25,350 the previous year, according to a report by the Institute for College Access and Success’s Project on Student Debt.

    The project said that about two-thirds of those who earned bachelor’s degrees last year had loans. About one-fifth of the debt was from private student loans, which have fewer consumer protections and repayment options than federal loans.

    Although federal data show that graduates of for-profit colleges are far more likely to borrow, and borrow more, than those who attend other types of colleges, the report’s findings focus only on public and nonprofit colleges, because only nine for-profit colleges (less than 2 percent) reported the necessary figures.

    “Twelve percent of the colleges that reported debt data for 2010 didn’t report for 2011, and virtually no for-profit colleges reported at all.” “The need for federal collection of key debt information at all colleges could not be more clear,” Mr. Reed added.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/ed...gewanted=print


    right on time . . . the Phoenix Express . . . Toot, toot

    University of Phoenix to Shutter 115 Locations

    By TAMAR LEWIN

    The University of Phoenix, the nation’s largest for-profit university, is closing 115 of its brick-and-mortar locations, including 25 main campuses and 90 smaller satellite learning centers. The closings will affect some 13,000 students, about 4 percent of its student body of 328,000.

    It is also laying off about 800 employees out of a staff of 17,000, according to Mark Brenner, senior vice president for communications at the Apollo Group, which owns the university.

    After the closings, which are to be completed next year, the University of Phoenix will be left with a nationwide network of 112 locations and a physical presence in 36 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico.

    Apollo stock closed Wednesday at $21.40, down $6.09, a 22 percent decline.

    Enrollments at the University of Phoenix and in the for-profit sector over all have been declining in the last two years, partly because of growing competition from other online providers, including nonprofit and public universities, and a steady drumroll of negative publicity about the sector’s recruiting abuses, low graduation rates and high default rates.

    Late last month, Kaplan Higher Education, a division of the Washington Post Company, announced that it was closing nine of its campuses and consolidating four others into nearby locations. The company did not give a reason, but in an August filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission it disclosed that an accrediting commission had warned that its campuses in Baltimore, Indianapolis and Dayton could lose their accreditation — and with it, eligibility for the federal student aid that makes up more than 80 percent of Kaplan’s revenues — for failure to meet student achievement requirements.

    As the negative publicity about for-profits mounted — including many charges that the schools enrolled students who had almost no chance of succeeding, to get their federal student aid — both Kaplan and the University of Phoenix announced new programs, offering some form of free trial, to ensure that they enrolled only students who had a reasonable likelihood of success. Those programs cut substantially into their enrollment numbers.

    sure sounds like the old subprime mortgage scam redux . . . albeit streamlined. No waiting for a bailout - the $$ comes directly from the taxpayer to the 'college'. Sweet . . . .

    Question for the 'tulipers - is FIRE missing out gilding the lily on student debt by not 'temporarily' privatizing it into CDOs, rated as simply as A-B-C . . . .


    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/18/ed...gewanted=print

  • #2
    Re: Student Debt Bubble Update

    Don, student loans are already packaged and created as a debt instrument the same as MBS, Credit Card, Auto Loan debt etc. While normally not as a CDO, student loan debt is traded in the bond markets.

    They even have a government program called FFELP which most of the loans are "backed" by with the implicit gaurantee of the US gov. http://www.tgslc.org/borrowers/loans/federal/ffelp/

    Banks like DEXIA in Europe own many many billions of dollars worth of student loan paper. I know the guys who run their student loan debt portfolio. The market even went as far as to market student loans as "Auction Rate Securities."

    Here is an article on Student Loan Auction Rate Securities or how they are known on the trading floor SLARS. https://www.hardwickday.com/capabili...ties-explained

    These loans were sold to all types of individual investors, large corporations, and insurance companies as liquid enough where you could get your money out at least every month at auction but offered a much higher yield than commercial paper.

    You can guess what happened next. When the 2007-08 crisis happened the auctions started to fail (which wasnt supposed to happen) at least they were sold in a way that investors thought it couldnt happen.

    What happens to the price of a bond when no one comes to the auction at the end of the month? Well the price plummets and there ended up being NO MARKET at all for the bonds.

    Now corporations like Texas Instruments had bought over 400 million worth of student loan auction rate securities thinking they were as "good as cash" on their balance sheet. When the auctions failed those firms holding SLARS could not get their much needed liquidity to fund operations especially in a collapsing market at the time.

    You can start to see the choice the firms were faced with. Either try to sell into a bidless market or hold on to the securities but have your capital locked up for god knows how long. Some firms sold and some didn't.

    I know because I was there. I was the one facilitating trades between the insurance companies/corporations etc and enterprising hedge funds buying student loan bonds virtually backed by the US gov for 30 cents on the dollar.

    They were rated triple A.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Student Debt Bubble Update

      Originally posted by ProdigyofZen View Post
      Don, student loans are already packaged and created as a debt instrument the same as MBS, Credit Card, Auto Loan debt etc. While normally not as a CDO, student loan debt is traded in the bond markets.

      They even have a government program called FFELP which most of the loans are "backed" by with the implicit gaurantee of the US gov. http://www.tgslc.org/borrowers/loans/federal/ffelp/

      Banks like DEXIA in Europe own many many billions of dollars worth of student loan paper. I know the guys who run their student loan debt portfolio. The market even went as far as to market student loans as "Auction Rate Securities."

      Here is an article on Student Loan Auction Rate Securities or how they are known on the trading floor SLARS. https://www.hardwickday.com/capabili...ties-explained

      These loans were sold to all types of individual investors, large corporations, and insurance companies as liquid enough where you could get your money out at least every month at auction but offered a much higher yield than commercial paper.

      You can guess what happened next. When the 2007-08 crisis happened the auctions started to fail (which wasnt supposed to happen) at least they were sold in a way that investors thought it couldnt happen.

      What happens to the price of a bond when no one comes to the auction at the end of the month? Well the price plummets and there ended up being NO MARKET at all for the bonds.

      Now corporations like Texas Instruments had bought over 400 million worth of student loan auction rate securities thinking they were as "good as cash" on their balance sheet. When the auctions failed those firms holding SLARS could not get their much needed liquidity to fund operations especially in a collapsing market at the time.

      You can start to see the choice the firms were faced with. Either try to sell into a bidless market or hold on to the securities but have your capital locked up for god knows how long. Some firms sold and some didn't.

      I know because I was there. I was the one facilitating trades between the insurance companies/corporations etc and enterprising hedge funds buying student loan bonds virtually backed by the US gov for 30 cents on the dollar.

      They were rated triple A.
      Interesting. Thanks for the summary.

      Debt instruments/notes packaged into securities to be marketed, sold, derivatized by Wall Street. So far OK.
      Those debts expressly guaranteed by the Fed gov; not OK; and yet it is the same with Fannie and Freddie at present.

      Am I the only one who sees this as contrary to a free society and crystal clear evidence of centralized control of the system?
      If the gov can guarantee these types, why can't it in principle guarantee all debts and then a whole market for new security derivatives can be created and we can all turn into financial innovators trading derivatives.

      I continue to be aghast at the ambivalence

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Student Debt Bubble Update

        Great rundown, Pro. What was I thinking - a momentary suspension of believe - FIRE doesn't burn.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Student Debt Bubble Update

          During normal times I would have shorted WPO big time as Kaplan has been the cash cow. The stock was in the 320's when it was downgraded. Now it's back above 350. Go figure. It's really, really, really hard for schools to lose accreditation. You practically have to be engaged in criminal activity, which the second link at the bottom makes pretty clear they are. There are numerous groups rooting for the Post to fail/be sold. The ironic thing, after Watergate, Herb Block, Nixon, etc. is it's the left going for the jugular.

          http://www.alternet.org/story/154717...2C2&paging=off


          In 2010, Washington Post Company Chairman Donald Graham told The Wall Street Journal , which was reporting on proposed regulations of the for-profit college and university industry: "They aimed at the bad actors and they wound up scoring a direct hit on schools that service low-income students ... That cannot be what the Obama Administration wants."

          If 16 whistleblower lawsuits, a Department of Justice investigation, a Government Accountability Office (GAO) sting, an EEOC lawsuit, over a dozen investigations by state attorneys general, payouts of over a quarter-billion dollars to executives and raising tuition on poor students to dishonestly maintain access to federal funds does not constitute a "bad actor," then, in Graham's eyes, what does?

          Kaplan University was once known as the cash cow of The Washington Post company. Now, it is little more than a legal albatross for its sugar daddy. Tragically, the Post Company's answer to Kaplan's declining domestic fortunes has been to export their educational product internationally. Kaplan International was one of the only divisions of the Washington Post Company to show growth in 2011, with a $100 million increase in revenues. This tells us that our struggle against Kaplan and the for-profit college industry is now international.

          http://www.consumeraffairs.com/education/kaplan.html

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Student Debt Bubble Update

            According to the New York Fed, Student loan debt is the only form of consumer debt that has grown since the peak of consumer debt in 2008. Moreover, student loans balances have eclipsed both auto loans and credit cards, making student loan debt the largest form of consumer debt outside of mortgages.

            The Fed has some interesting charts on Student Loan Debt History through first quarter of 2012.

            Debt levels are higher now, with student debt at $956 billion through third quarter. What caught my eye however, is skyrocketing debt in the age group 30-39.

            First Quarter Overall Debt



            Student Debt Under Age 30



            Student Debt Age 30-39



            Even if it took someone age 18, eight to ten years to finish college, they would still be 28 years old at most when they finished their education.

            Yet, student debt in the 30-39 demographic group now exceeds that of the under 30 age group. Moreover, the under age 30 group accounts for less than a third of the overall student debt.

            Points to Consider


            1. Over-two thirds of student debt is held by those well outside the normal student demographic!
            2. This trend is not entirely recession-related given that it has been steady since 2005.
            3. Someone exiting military service would be covered for 36 months of in-state education by the GI Bill.
            4. Someone working for a major employer for any significant length of time would likely have some or all education expenses paid for by the company.
            5. Those aged 30-39 would be far more likely to have steady income than someone 18-24, thereby avoiding the need to rack up as much debt.




            Trends in College Tuition vs. Bachelor’s Degree Wages

            Meanwhile, as student debt piles up, wage growth for college grads certainly doesn't. Please consider a Shocking Chart on Tuition vs. Earnings for College Grads on The Fiscal Times.
            Student debt levels have reached a new high – rising $42 billion in the last quarter to $956 billion, according to a report this week from the New York Fed. At the same time, tuition rates have seen a staggering 72 percent increase since 2000.

            As if those two upward trends weren’t hitting students hard enough – the average earnings for full-time workers ages 25-34 with Bachelor’s degrees has also dropped 14.7 percent since 2000. The chart below from Citi shows the striking contrast:



            Howard Dvorkin, author of Credit Hell, told The Fiscal Times last month: “It's hard to predict when the student loan meltdown could occur, but if the bubble explodes, the consequences will be devastating for the economy.”

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Student Debt Bubble Update

              Originally posted by don View Post
              Howard Dvorkin, author of Credit Hell, told The Fiscal Times last month: “It's hard to predict when the student loan meltdown could occur, but if the bubble explodes, the consequences will be devastating for the economy.”
              Firstly: what does it mean for the student debt bubble to explode? 1) That the loans stop going out OR 2) that the loans stop being paid back

              If # 1) then the author has a point, it will be less stimulus for the economy - student loans are used to pay for living expenses as well as tuition - we see this with the 30-39 yr old demographic; can't get a job? enroll in "school" and have your living expenses subsidized (of course it's benefits the school more) - this is just another form a social welfare.

              If #2) them I don't see the problem (the loans will be written off one way or another after all). Since the gov guaranteees the loans, the Fed can just monetize it. and please don't tell me that if the Fed prints another $trillion the currency will crash - recent history indicates otherwise

              Comment

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