Peak oil delay by Iraq?

[Mega]

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...oil-yet-again/


Good coments:-
"predicted 8m bbls/day in 2030. From current production of 2.6m.
That is a (predicted) increase of 5.4m bbls/day over then next 18 years. A linear growth in production of 300,000 bbls/day (it won't be linear, but it will suit our purpose for now).
Current global **crude** production is circa 73m bbls/day (the often quoted figure of 85m includes gas liquids and non-conventional). The very same IEA has publicly determined a conservative global decline rate of currently producing fields of greater than 3%.
300,000 of 73,000,000 is 0.4%
So, Iraq **might** be able to increase production at an annual rate of 0.4% of current 2012 total global crude production out till 2030. Given a **massive** investment. And the region remaining peaceful under the umbrella of Pax Americana. (doubtful).
But global decline in currently producing fields is running (at least) at 3%.
0.4% < 3%
So no. Iraq's optimistically predicted increase in production will not even come close to mitigating peak oil.
In a nutshell, the world needs to replace the output equivalent of one Saudi Arabia every FOUR YEARS from here on in. Just to remain stable.
(oh, and the good - and growing - population of Iraq will want to use increasing amounts of their own oil. Just like KSA. So there will not be anywhere near 8m bbls/day released onto the export market. Which is where the marginal barrel is priced.)"

[gwynedd1]

Re: Peak oil delay by Iraq?

Not to worry. The market will fix it. That is people will demand their government lower prices so people can keep choosing "the best" product( in a rigged energy market provided for you by the US military). The rigged market has chosen SUVs.

Should have put a tax on this stuff back in the 80s. That would have given us time and policy control to manage shocks as in the ability to lower the tax for any transition period.
The oil speculators have been our best friends. When they are your best friend boy do you have problems.

Who is going to win this one? State sponsored China or the faux-market US system?

[TBBNF]

Re: Peak oil delay by Iraq?

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...oil-yet-again/


Good coments:-
"predicted 8m bbls/day in 2030. From current production of 2.6m.
That is a (predicted) increase of 5.4m bbls/day over then next 18 years. A linear growth in production of 300,000 bbls/day (it won't be linear, but it will suit our purpose for now).
Current global **crude** production is circa 73m bbls/day (the often quoted figure of 85m includes gas liquids and non-conventional). The very same IEA has publicly determined a conservative global decline rate of currently producing fields of greater than 3%.
300,000 of 73,000,000 is 0.4%
So, Iraq **might** be able to increase production at an annual rate of 0.4% of current 2012 total global crude production out till 2030. Given a **massive** investment. And the region remaining peaceful under the umbrella of Pax Americana. (doubtful).
But global decline in currently producing fields is running (at least) at 3%.
0.4% < 3%
So no. Iraq's optimistically predicted increase in production will not even come close to mitigating peak oil.
In a nutshell, the world needs to replace the output equivalent of one Saudi Arabia every FOUR YEARS from here on in. Just to remain stable.
(oh, and the good - and growing - population of Iraq will want to use increasing amounts of their own oil. Just like KSA. So there will not be anywhere near 8m bbls/day released onto the export market. Which is where the marginal barrel is priced.)"

Hmmmm....Was that big push pin on Iraq in 2002 at Pax Americana because of their weapons of mass destruction..........

[Raz]

Re: Peak oil delay by Iraq?

Hmmmm....Was that big push pin on Iraq in 2002 at Pax Americana because of their weapons of mass destruction..........

Why so cynical?