Japan electricity supply was not a problem so far this year

[BadJuju]

Re: Japan electricity supply was not a problem so far this year

And like computers, they often go for faster and more powerful, rather than more efficient. The HP ratings of some cars today are getting absurd!

It really is ludicrous. Why can't people simply be satisfied when it comes to that?

The argument doesn't really jive with regards to computers, though. The drive to increase the power of computers is respectable as it has actual benefits to the world, such as providing increased throughput for handling simulations. Getting a few more mph out of your car when it is already fast enough to handle the road and its rules is just ridiculous.

[shiny!]

Re: Japan electricity supply was not a problem so far this year

It really is ludicrous. Why can't people simply be satisfied when it comes to that?

The argument doesn't really jive with regards to computers, though. The drive to increase the power of computers is respectable as it has actual benefits to the world, such as providing increased throughput for handling simulations. Getting a few more mph out of your car when it is already fast enough to handle the road and its rules is just ridiculous.

Agreed, but that kind of power isn't necessary for everyone. Most average users surf the internet, check their email, watch some videos, do some documents and spreadsheets... They don't need a cosmic rocket-blaster CPU with which to do that. 99% of all the gains are aimed at going faster, when the majority of users would benefit from more energy efficiency.

[peakishmael]

Re: Japan electricity supply was not a problem so far this year

Agreed, but that kind of power isn't necessary for everyone. Most average users surf the internet, check their email, watch some videos, do some documents and spreadsheets... They don't need a cosmic rocket-blaster CPU with which to do that. 99% of all the gains are aimed at going faster, when the majority of users would benefit from more energy efficiency.

Jevon's Paradox: fundamental improvements in energy efficiency tend to increase (not decrease) energy usage. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

The rule may be demonstrated by the discussion here about both vehicles and PCs. On a societal level, the historical data in support is strong. I suspect mooncliff's Japanese experience just demonstrates what happens when the limit has been reached, and no additional energy sources can be identified. In the face of that shrinking pie, efficiencies can help maintain living standards, at least for a while.

[shiny!]

Re: Japan electricity supply was not a problem so far this year

Jevon's Paradox: fundamental improvements in energy efficiency tend to increase (not decrease) energy usage. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

The rule may be demonstrated by the discussion here about both vehicles and PCs. On a societal level, the historical data in support is strong. I suspect mooncliff's Japanese experience just demonstrates what happens when the limit has been reached, and no additional energy sources can be identified. In the face of that shrinking pie, efficiencies can help maintain living standards, at least for a while.

Very interesting article, thanks!

So we're doomed... stupidity being the only infinite resource in the Universe and all...

[BadJuju]

Re: Japan electricity supply was not a problem so far this year

Very interesting article, thanks!

So we're doomed... stupidity being the only infinite resource in the Universe and all...

Not at all. There comes a point at which you can also only consume so much as well. Despite massive integration of electronics, appliances, and other energy-intensive applications within homes, per capita energy use has actually declined from a historical peak 40 years prior.

[aaron]

Re: Japan electricity supply was not a problem so far this year

I just bought 8 watt (40 watt equiv) LED bulbs at the local Walgreens (chain drug store) for 3 dollars each. They seem to work well so far. They are much brighter than I was expecting. I bought 12.

[Ghent12]

Re: Japan electricity supply was not a problem so far this year

Not at all. There comes a point at which you can also only consume so much as well. Despite massive integration of electronics, appliances, and other energy-intensive applications within homes, per capita energy use has actually declined from a historical peak 40 years prior.

And meanwhile our population has grown by how much since then? The paradox still stands.

However, there's no real reason for concern about exhausting or even supplying fossil fuels or other fuels. Reality will set in, one way or another, and people will start to realize that the "running out of fossil fuel" meme is simply a fad. I could be wrong--maybe people will never realize it, yet the end result will be the same because we've been "running out of oil" for five decades now yet oil is still king.

There are real considerations for using fossil fuels, especially coal, which include such remote consequences as pregnant women being advised against eating fish due to the heavy metals content in them. Yet those are rarely on the table when such loud voices proclaim nonsensical matters such as "energy independence!!!" and "global warming!!!" and "we're running out!!!" to be the most pressing matters. I doubt any study has been done on such an issue, but it is unimaginable that the Earth and its people will exhaust any resource that is heavily relied upon by the end of the century.

It's a simple matter that as all of the low-hanging fruit gets picked, there's an entire canopy above that requires various degrees of technology to access. Fossil fuels are here effectively forever because there will likely never be a point when it is not cost-effective to dig some of them up. The effects of reality will vary from country to country, and sometimes it won't be pretty. But frankly Japan has a much more significant problem than nukes and earthquakes--their financial house is made out of the same material as some of their iconic houses. Their Lost Decade turned into Two Lost Decades, and there's no real reason why it won't become Three Lost Decades if they continue the same policies. Paper is a much bigger detriment to living standards than nukes, fossil fuels, and earthquakes.

[FrankL]

Re: Japan electricity supply was not a problem so far this year

Agreed, but that kind of power isn't necessary for everyone. Most average users surf the internet, check their email, watch some videos, do some documents and spreadsheets... They don't need a cosmic rocket-blaster CPU with which to do that. 99% of all the gains are aimed at going faster, when the majority of users would benefit from more energy efficiency.

There's a product niche that covers this already; it's the tablet market. An iPad is fine for browsing the web, checking emails and watching youtube videos, and uses between 4W and 10W depending on which model¹. This includes the screen, but excludes embedded costs (materials, manufacturing, shipping, etc). However, I doubt the embedded costs of a regular PC or even a notebook are smaller than a ipad, save for the battery pack in a tablet that might counterbalance this. I'm curious to know if it is possible to use an Apple iPad with the battery pack removed...

¹ http://www.anandtech.com/print/5789

P.S. as far as Japan's electricity supply being a problem or not... what about the financial side to it? It's hurting Japan's trade balance badly to have to import all those extra fossil fuels. And what about the ecological footprint of nuclear vs. coal/gas/oil?

[shiny!]

Re: Japan electricity supply was not a problem so far this year

There's a product niche that covers this already; it's the tablet market. An iPad is fine for browsing the web, checking emails and watching youtube videos, and uses between 4W and 10W depending on which model¹. This includes the screen, but excludes embedded costs (materials, manufacturing, shipping, etc). However, I doubt the embedded costs of a regular PC or even a notebook are smaller than a ipad, save for the battery pack in a tablet that might counterbalance this. I'm curious to know if it is possible to use an Apple iPad with the battery pack removed...

¹ http://www.anandtech.com/print/5789

That iPad is real pretty, but I don't want to read and write all day hunched over a little notebook. I like my setup: a cool, silent desktop box with real speakers, a large keyboard and most importantly, a 19" monitor at eye level so I can sit up straight and my neck doesn't ache. It runs Linux, not a proprietary O/S.

Most offices can't run on notebooks, either; they need decent sized monitors to display spreadsheets and such. That segment of the market could really benefit from extremely energy-efficient desktop systems.

I just want another low-watt CPU that works with my perfectly good motherboard. AMD stopped making their low-cost, super efficient X2 5050e (which is what I have). The only one they still sell that works with my motherboard is less powerful than the one I have; all their other processors use more watts. I either have to compromise my system or use more energy. I might have to get AMD's new Trident APU and a new motherboard and new memory. Sigh.

Having to buy or build a new computer every few years because manufacturers don't keep replacement parts available is just wasteful in the extreme. Can you imagine having to replace a perfectly good 4 year-old car because the manufacturer doesn't make spare parts for it?

It's a turvy-topsy world...