World Hyperinflations

[globaleconomicollaps]

seen on zerohedge.

It is very hard to find this data.

World Hyperinflations
Steve H. Hanke and Nicholas Krus
http://www.cato.org/pubs/researchnot...ingPaper-8.pdf

[Chris]

Re: World Hyperinflations

notice the directory name: http://buildengineer.com/itulip/.

edit: i see it is yours GEC.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: World Hyperinflations

notice the directory name: http://buildengineer.com/itulip/.

edit: i see it is yours GEC.

I removed the copy.

[metalman]

Re: World Hyperinflations

seen on zerohedge.

It is very hard to find this data.

World Hyperinflations
Steve H. Hanke and Nicholas Krus
http://buildengineer.com/itulip/1046...nflation-s.pdf

don't know why you guys keep advertising zerocred on the itulip. do you advertize itulip on zerocred?

a conservative/libertarian cato paper on hyperinflation is hard to find? really?

tell you what's hard to find... the kind of analysis here re hyperinflation w/o the ideology.

analysis of what really happens & when & why...



instead of cato try from footnotes of itulip articles... past 13 yrs...

HYPERINFLATIONS AND MORAL HAZARD
IN THE APPROPRIATION OF
SEIGNIORAGE: AN EMPIRICAL
IMPLEMENTATION WITH A CALIBRATION
APPROACH

&

Inflation and Hyperinflation in the 20th Century

etc, etc, etc...

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: World Hyperinflations

don't know why you guys keep advertising zerocred on the itulip. do you advertize itulip on zerocred?

I'm delighted that you exist Mr. Metalman. You represent the cheering section without which no sports team can be a success. I happen to like EJ's astute and reasoned analysis. I don't make the mistake of thinking that he is the last word on advice on the economy or politics. As it happens, this is the only site that I pay for. I don't have much time for the comment section at Zerohedge, because the attract too many trolls. If you want to spread the good word on the ZH forums, be my guest.

Not to prick your bubble Mr. Metal, but I feel I need to remind you of the reality of what this site and it's impeccable owner have predicted in the past:
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...ghlight=shaped



A prediction I might add, that if I had followed it, would have lead to the loss of ALL OF MY F-ING MONEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[metalman]

Re: World Hyperinflations

I'm delighted that you exist Mr. Metalman. You represent the cheering section without which no sports team can be a success. I happen to like EJ's astute and reasoned analysis. I don't make the mistake of thinking that he is the last word on advice on the economy or politics. As it happens, this is the only site that I pay for. I don't have much time for the comment section at Zerohedge, because the attract too many trolls. If you want to spread the good word on the ZH forums, be my guest.

Not to prick your bubble Mr. Metal, but I feel I need to remind you of the reality of what this site and it's impeccable owner have predicted in the past:
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...ghlight=shaped



A prediction I might add, that if I had followed it, would have lead to the loss of ALL OF MY F-ING MONEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

the advice was... stay in gold & treasury bonds.



since 2009...

gold... $900 -> $1650
10 yr... 3.9% -> 1.7%

how did you manage to lose money?

[dcarrigg]

Re: World Hyperinflations

seen on zerohedge.

It is very hard to find this data.

World Hyperinflations
Steve H. Hanke and Nicholas Krus
http://buildengineer.com/itulip/1046...nflation-s.pdf

The thing about the data is that it is so utterly warped by its treatment of post-Soviet break-away republics that the general conclusions and aggregate numbers are nearly senseless.

Samuel Huntington did the same thing in his "Clash of Civilizations" book. In Huntington's case, he split the world into 7 civilizations then argued that the Islamic civilization is growing most rapidly. What he didn't tell you unless you looked carefully at the data was that in 1991, he moved all the post-Soviet "stans" from the Orthodox column to the Islam column and that was where 90% of the supposed growth occurred.

In this case, a single inflation event around the Soviet Ruble in '92 is split into one case for Moldova, another for Belarus, another for Tajikistan, etc. etc. to the point where half of all hyper inflation events represented in the data are resultant from a single event, namely the breakup of the Soviet Union.

And so, anyone trying to extrapolate trends from these data is going to get a warped view.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: World Hyperinflations

the advice was... stay in gold & treasury bonds.


how did you manage to lose money?

I didn't lose my money, because I had a premonition about the reliability of this prediction. I decided to stay in cash. When I eventually did decide to buy gold, I was most definitely not motivated by EJ, who at the time said something along the lines of "I think the emphasis on gold is overstated". I will be happy to dig it up for you if you like. He also did a radio interview around that time where he said "I would be reluctant to recommend gold at $1100/oz". Again I will be happy to look it up for you.

Incidentally the graph you posted earlier as an example of the superior analysis of Itulip was retracted ( what ever happened with that BTW?). It was also supposed to stay in the subscriber area.

[metalman]

Re: World Hyperinflations

I didn't lose my money, because I had a premonition about the reliability of this prediction. I decided to stay in cash. When I eventually did decide to buy gold, I was most definitely not motivated by EJ, who at the time said something along the lines of "I think the emphasis on gold is overstated". I will be happy to dig it up for you if you like. He also did a radio interview around that time where he said "I would be reluctant to recommend gold at $1100/oz". Again I will be happy to look it up for you.

premonition that his 'stay in gold, stay in bonds' prediction was wrong?

but it was right.

"I think the emphasis on gold is overstated".

please do show me.

ej has forecast a higher end of year price for gold every year since 2001. if he was wrong once... just once... he'd be discredited.

it's risky to do that & also to say 'stay in tbonds' while others panic out of them or short them.

no guts no glory...

you try to discredit the track record. why? what for?

Incidentally the graph you posted earlier as an example of the superior analysis of Itulip was retracted ( what ever happened with that BTW?). It was also supposed to stay in the subscriber area.

what chart was retracted? what you talking about?

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: World Hyperinflations

premonition that his 'stay in gold, stay in bonds' prediction was wrong?

but it was right.

"I think the emphasis on gold is overstated".

please do show me.

ej has forecast a higher end of year price for gold every year since 2001. if he was wrong once... just once... he'd be discredited.

it's risky to do that & also to say 'stay in tbonds' while others panic out of them or short them.

no guts no glory...

you try to discredit the track record. why? what for?



what chart was retracted? what you talking about?

You have me on a research project now. I will get back to you with the goods soon.

This chart was retracted:
http://www.itulip.com/images2/German...0-1925wtmk.png
He had the following to say:
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...own#post226953

Quote Originally Posted by Polish_Silver View Post
1) Why did the for ex collapse, if prices were going down, as of spring 1923?

The first chart does show an increase in notes circulating at that time. We need a log chart to really see it.

2) Why is the price index always below 150% annual change?

That is not hyper inflation and does not explain wheel barrows of marks for a loaf of bread.

We are in frequent communication with the people responsible for the NBER archives. The back and forth started with our questions about the peculiar data series that show a rising price of 3.5% bonds as the hyperinflation occurs. The curator of that data set, who has been with NBER since the early 1980s, admitted the data were suspect. Further investigation revealed that much of the data on Germany during the period is likely flawed, including the inflation indexes. These are the same data the every researcher has used for decades for analysis of the period. Apparently we are the first to question it. He and his team are now two weeks into a heads-down project to resolve the issues. We will let you know what comes out of the project.

Ed.

This stuff is supposed to stay in behind the pay wall.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: World Hyperinflations

you try to discredit the track record. why? what for?

You know, I don't like your tone. Why are you shilling for EJ? He doesn't need or ,most likely, want an uncritical cheering section. Are you getting payed for this? If not what is your motivation?

[metalman]

Re: World Hyperinflations

You have me on a research project now. I will get back to you with the goods soon.

This chart was retracted:
http://www.itulip.com/images2/German...0-1925wtmk.png
He had the following to say:
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...own#post226953

yep... retracted after ej/fred discover that the nber data used by every researcher on the german hyperinflation since the 1980s is WRONG, maybe including the cato article you're hosting on your site?

my point in posting that chart is that the analysis is rigorous here not of the ideological 'monetize debt -> hyperinflation' variety like cato's.

This stuff is supposed to stay in behind the pay wall.

then how to 'show' the diff between the casual politically motivated crap like cato's & the careful, hard work here? hmmmm.

[metalman]

Re: World Hyperinflations

You know, I don't like your tone. Why are you shilling for EJ? He doesn't need or ,most likely, want an uncritical cheering section. Are you getting payed for this? If not what is your motivation?

you say you'd lose all your money by following ej's advice to stay in gold/tbonds/cash in 2009?

i call it bs because it is.

how is that shilling?

what have i said that isn't true?

i guess i could ignore you & think i will... like everyone else ignores your blog with your odd habit to paste a hyperbolic curve over every chart.

never mind. carry on.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: World Hyperinflations

yep... retracted after ej/fred discover that the nber data used by every researcher on the german hyperinflation since the 1980s is WRONG, maybe including the cato article you're hosting on your site?

my point in posting that chart is that the analysis is rigorous here not of the ideological 'monetize debt -> hyperinflation' variety like cato's.


then how to 'show' the diff between the casual politically motivated crap like cato's & the careful, hard work here? hmmmm.

So.. cool kind of jujitsu move there where you are wrong, but it's not your fault because everybody else is super wrong. Wow. You rock!

I don't much care for the Cato institute, but I'm happy to find good analysis anywhere. I'm rethinking hosting this PDF in light of what dcarrigg wrote above. I will have to think it over.

I'm happy to carry on this discussion on the pay for site.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: World Hyperinflations

you say you'd lose all your money by following ej's advice to stay in gold/tbonds/cash in 2009?

i call it bs because it is.

how is that shilling?

what have i said that isn't true?

i guess i could ignore you & think i will... like everyone else ignores your blog with your odd habit to paste a hyperbolic curve over every chart.

never mind. carry on.

You know, I could just post a funny GIF on every thread. That would get me some respect.