World Hyperinflations

[c1ue]

Re: World Hyperinflations

Credibility is as credibility does.

Metalman is someone who agrees fully with what EJ/iTulip says - but he always says why he sustains this view and provides concrete evidence.

The patterns of behavior metalman has noted are quite obvious to all. On iTulip, however, even idiots like myself can say almost whatever they like.

I respect that.

[BadJuju]

Re: World Hyperinflations

The patterns of behavior metalman has noted are quite obvious to all. On iTulip, however, even idiots like myself can say almost whatever they like.

I respect that.

That's why I am here. I got run out of all the other places!

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: World Hyperinflations

Credibility is as credibility does.

Metalman is someone who agrees fully with what EJ/iTulip says - but he always says why he sustains this view and provides concrete evidence.

The patterns of behavior metalman has noted are quite obvious to all. On iTulip, however, even idiots like myself can say almost whatever they like.

I respect that.

What I saw was that the minute I started to post actual fact, Mr. Metal decided he didn't wish to hear any more. In any event, I will dig up the relevant links even though Mr. Metal has made himself scarce.

[gwynedd1]

Re: World Hyperinflations

I think EJs investment portfolio was pretty sound and it would not have lost anyone any money. Now if you took his point of view on the stock market as investment advice I could see trouble. That sort of surprised him. Not sure why I did not bet more on the luxury boom myself. Its time to invest like we are a banana republic.

[c1ue]

Re: World Hyperinflations

What I saw was that the minute I started to post actual fact, Mr. Metal decided he didn't wish to hear any more. In any event, I will dig up the relevant links even though Mr. Metal has made himself scarce.

Post what you will, metalman will respond whenever he can and wants to. Nowhere is it written that every member must respond within minutes.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: World Hyperinflations

Post what you will, metalman will respond whenever he can and wants to. Nowhere is it written that every member must respond within minutes.

I do intend to respond fully. I'm looking through old posts now. There are thousands of them and it is slow going.

Metalman has run away with his tail between his legs because he knows I am right. The embarrassment of seeing actual links with actual dates and facts caused him to bail.

I'm really enjoying reading the old EJ posts right now.
this is an especially good one:
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...lation-Happens

I think what this site needs is a review article highlighting some of the best material.

I need to remind you what the nature of the "dispute" here is. It is kind of funny. After reading tens of thousands of articles and videos on at LEAST 50 different web sites since ~mid 2005 I took the plunge and bought gold in 2010. I had bought small amounts before, but this time I bought in large. Now Mr. Metalman is upset at me because I said that my decision to buy gold was not motivated by Mr. Janszen. I'm a fan of Mr. Janszen, but not a BIG ENOUGH fan. I poke fun at other web sites, but I'm not vicious enough.

A little context might help. For ten years EJ has been recommending that people buy 85% treasury bonds and 15% gold. He recently changed to 30% gold and 70% treasuries. I don't think that he ever revealed what he personally was invested in, other than to let us know that he had moved most of his personal wealth into early stage start-ups. The fact of a guy telling you to buy something that he personally is not willing to hold should be setting off alarm bells in your head. I know it did for me.

A little more on the issue of "recommendations". EJ has promoted at various time, a dubious currency trading firm called "Crooks on currency" ( love the name), A Boston area rental management firm, and a manufacturer of alcohol testing devices. He also makes regular stock market and occasional other market projections. For me, I see the site as primarily educational and informational, but for most people, the recommendations are THE MAIN PURPOSE OF THE SITE. If the recommendations are bad the site is considered bad. This is too bad, because it really is a terrific educational web site.

Another thing that is a bit off putting it the inscrutable notion of "insurance". EJ recommends a small percentage of your wealth be put into this "insurance" in the form of gold. The idea is that there is a razor thin chance that the dollar will experience hyperinflation, and therefore you should "insure" yourself via a small percentage of your net worth in gold. Insurance is a sunk cost. You never get back the portion of your money you spend on the insurance unless the policy pays off. Also, It seems reasonable to assume that the percentage of your wealth devoted to the insurance is proportional to the risk. Since EJ has doubled the recommended percentage in the last few years, would it be reasonable to assume that the risk has doubled? If so why did EJ put his personal fortune into private equity? ( i.e. "Stocks" ). I submit to you that you are not getting the whole story. Another alarm bell for me. Perhaps I'm making too much of this metaphor. If so I apologize. I never understood the entire concept, although I am coming around to the idea that there might be other things that would be better investments.

[jpatter666]

Re: World Hyperinflations

A little context might help. For ten years EJ has been recommending that people buy 85% treasury bonds and 15% gold. He recently changed to 30% gold and 70% treasuries. I don't think that he ever revealed what he personally was invested in, other than to let us know that he had moved most of his personal wealth into early stage start-ups. The fact of a guy telling you to buy something that he personally is not willing to hold should be setting off alarm bells in your head. I know it did for me.

A little more on the issue of "recommendations". EJ has promoted at various time, a dubious currency trading firm called "Crooks on currency" ( love the name), A Boston area rental management firm, and a manufacturer of alcohol testing devices. He also makes regular stock market and occasional other market projections. For me, I see the site as primarily educational and informational, but for most people, the recommendations are THE MAIN PURPOSE OF THE SITE. If the recommendations are bad the site is considered bad. This is too bad, because it really is a terrific educational web site.

Another thing that is a bit off putting it the inscrutable notion of "insurance". EJ recommends a small percentage of your wealth be put into this "insurance" in the form of gold. The idea is that there is a razor thin chance that the dollar will experience hyperinflation, and therefore you should "insure" yourself via a small percentage of your net worth in gold. Insurance is a sunk cost. You never get back the portion of your money you spend on the insurance unless the policy pays off. Also, It seems reasonable to assume that the percentage of your wealth devoted to the insurance is proportional to the risk. Since EJ has doubled the recommended percentage in the last few years, would it be reasonable to assume that the risk has doubled? If so why did EJ put his personal fortune into private equity? ( i.e. "Stocks" ). I submit to you that you are not getting the whole story. Another alarm bell for me. Perhaps I'm making too much of this metaphor. If so I apologize. I never understood the entire concept, although I am coming around to the idea that there might be other things that would be better investments.

Eh...I think you're reading a little TOO much between the lines here.

1 ) EJ has been clear that he was liquidating part of the treasury portfolio to help fund various startups or ventures. Some of them (which you mentioned) have been willing to give access to the iTulip community which would not have been possible without his assistance. I grant that EJ to my knowledge has not stated what percentage Treasuries he currently holds, but neither has he given a "sell NOW" posting. I am assuming the gold percentage remains the same.
2 ) After making some short-term calls (several of which did NOT come off) I believe EJ has realized that short-term micro calls are not his forte and has stuck to the macro view. Every now and again, a "fish in a barrel" shot pops up ("sell silver") and he calls that one. In all fairness, the market is now so heavily manipulated that without serious political and economic connections, it is VERY dangerous to swim in these waters.
3 ) EJ has always stated that at some point a swap of gold for stock is likely in the cards.
4 ) I think in this case, gold "insurance" is more purchasing power protection -- not so much hyperinflation. In which case, so far, so good.

But in any case, I agree the educational value is superb if you are willing to take the time to go through the site. Maybe MM could go through EJ postings (say back to 2006) and score them for us? Maybe with a listing of on-the-money and air-ball calls? I'd really be curious to see that.....

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: World Hyperinflations

Eh...I think you're reading a little TOO much between the lines here.

1 ) EJ has been clear that he was liquidating part of the treasury portfolio to help fund various startups or ventures. Some of them (which you mentioned) have been willing to give access to the iTulip community which would not have been possible without his assistance. I grant that EJ to my knowledge has not stated what percentage Treasuries he currently holds, but neither has he given a "sell NOW" posting. I am assuming the gold percentage remains the same.

so you sell half your treasuries and now your setup looks like this:
30% gold
35% treasuries
35% "stocks"

Why did I not get the memo? Am I supposed to stay out while everybody else goes back in the pool?

I'm sticking with what I said above.

2 ) After making some short-term calls (several of which did NOT come off) I believe EJ has realized that short-term micro calls are not his forte and has stuck to the macro view. Every now and again, a "fish in a barrel" shot pops up ("sell silver") and he calls that one. In all fairness, the market is now so heavily manipulated that without serious political and economic connections, it is VERY dangerous to swim in these waters.

You are missing the point. The purpose of the web site is to make economic predictions. Some people will act on them. Your job is to take responsibility for your calls.

3 ) EJ has always stated that at some point a swap of gold for stock is likely in the cards.

is this pertinent to the discussion? I'm talking about right now.

4 ) I think in this case, gold "insurance" is more purchasing power protection -- not so much hyperinflation. In which case, so far, so good.

But in any case, I agree the educational value is superb if you are willing to take the time to go through the site. Maybe MM could go through EJ postings (say back to 2006) and score them for us? Maybe with a listing of on-the-money and air-ball calls? I'd really be curious to see that.....

I think there is a snowballs chance in hell that MM would ever criticize the demigod.



You know, with so much bad blood in the air ( humm... cool metaphor ), I want to stick to actual quotes. This is why EJ says to buy gold:

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...ance#post79547

I'm not going to excerpt, highlight, bold or change it in any way. You draw your own conclusions.

Re: Oh boy, now I am confused

Please indulge me a few sentences to explain where I'm coming from.

Imagine you are me.

You have told friends, some of whom are high net worth, some of whom are middle class just the way we all were growing up together.

Some are nurses.

Some are photographers and graphic artists.

Some are entrepreneurs.

Some are academics.

Some are lawyers.

Some run restaurants.

Some work at restaurants.

Some are drop-outs -- some rich and some poor.

Some are bankers and VCs.

And so on.

I have been telling them, just like my extended group of friends here at iTulip, for ten years. "We are living in a phony bubble economy":

Save money
Avoid debt
Sell stocks
Buy gold
Buy Treasury bonds and CDs

At this time I can divide my friends into three main groups:

Didn't listen but will survive the error without losing so much social status that they won't be able to adjust
Didn't listen but and have lost so much they will never forgive me for giving them the information needed to avoid the hardship but didn't somehow force them to take action
Did listen and are friends for life

On my recent re-appraisal of the hyperinflation case, I have for 10 years said hyperinflation is virtually impossible as an outcome of the bubble economy, but recent events remind me of conversations I've had with various people all over the world, leading me to re-evaluate that position.

I'm meeting with a friend of a friend in NYC who runs a multi-billion dollar hedge fund that has done very well, even after the commodity correction. He insists the USA is just like Argentina. I say, "No, it's not. The US prints the world's reserve currency..." (We've all heard the arguments. I don't need to repeat them for you.) "Doesn't matter," he insists. "Here's how it goes for a country with a big external debt. Shit happens. Economy tanks. The government can't borrow more from other countries. Can't borrow more from its own people. Can't tax except the rich, who then shovel the money overseas. The rich move money into other currencies -- dollars -- before the balance of payments crisis hits. Then the currency tanks, say, 10 to one. Then things calm down. The guy thinks he's smart. Dodged the bullet. He sells the dollars for bonds, stocks, and so on in the local currency. For a year or so, all is calm. Recovery, everyone says. Then a new crisis. But when the currency tanks this time the loss is 1000 to one. He's wiped out. He's babbling to his friends about how he dodged the first bullet but not the second. His friends ignore him. He's no longer one of them. He's just another poor bastard hoping the government or a stroke of luck will send a job and some money his way so his kids stop whining and his wife stops telling him what a loser he is. Now he's "in the line," that long line of people who are screwed, hoping someone will help them, gives a shit, but no one does. A lot of people are born in that line and once they get out of it they'll do anything to stay out of it. The point is to not be in that line. Ever. Now take the story and make that guy an American. What is he going to hold, dollars? No, gold. Everything else is even worse. Say it goes to $2000. The air is charged with fear. He sells the gold thinking he dodged the bullet. Then calm. But under the surface, everything is moving. Next thing he knows, new crisis, gold goes to $30,000 and he's wiped out. Never sell your insurance against a governent, no matter what. Argentina, USA, Japan, Germany, China, Switzerland, they're all screwed. Maybe Norway is ok. Open your eyes and you'll see it, too."
In London a man who ran a large division of a venerable and now defunct investment bank is telling me that the end of the credit bubble will wipe out his firm. This is in 2002. His firm goes bankrupt in 2008. What did he do to protect himself from the crisis he saw coming six years before? Apparently not much. Last I heard he'd committed suicide over finanicial and marital issues.
A successful lawyer I know from the dot com era puts all of his money in a handful of tech firms and loses it all. He has a nervous breakdown, and loses his practice.

I know this is strong stuff, and I apologize. But I have dozens of such stories. Here's the moral:

Bad things happen to good people. Once they do, in our society they are cut loose, on their own, irrelevant. Family will still be there, but what if they whole family is in trouble? Communities are not what they used to be. It's not hard to become another loser in the system. People in financial trouble are not respected in American society, or most societies for that matter. They are powerless. It is a cruel fact. You don't want to be in "the line" and there are many ways to get into it. One is to not set enough money aside for a rainy day. Another is to not insure against a special kind of rainy day, no matter how apparently unlikely, when the purchasing power of savings is suddenly reduced. I hope we are all friends for a long time.

Last edited by FRED; 02-28-09 at 07:32 AM.

[metalman]

Re: World Hyperinflations

I do intend to respond fully. I'm looking through old posts now. There are thousands of them and it is slow going.

Metalman has run away with his tail between his legs because he knows I am right. The embarrassment of seeing actual links with actual dates and facts caused him to bail.

oh, geez... here we go. shall i be drawn in by the bait? can i help myself?



ah... but i must... i must!

I'm really enjoying reading the old EJ posts right now.
this is an especially good one:
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...lation-Happens

I think what this site needs is a review article highlighting some of the best material.

old stuff on this site is worth the price of admission for new on other sites... the last guy to try to mine it then passed away... god bless him... (jk in honor of him picked up his avatar)...

I need to remind you what the nature of the "dispute" here is. It is kind of funny. After reading tens of thousands of articles and videos on at LEAST 50 different web sites since ~mid 2005 I took the plunge and bought gold in 2010. I had bought small amounts before, but this time I bought in large. Now Mr. Metalman is upset at me because I said that my decision to buy gold was not motivated by Mr. Janszen. I'm a fan of Mr. Janszen, but not a BIG ENOUGH fan. I poke fun at other web sites, but I'm not vicious enough.

2010? 2010??? 9 yrs & 23746 articles after ej. me thinks you are too proud & not enough listening.

A little context might help. For ten years EJ has been recommending that people buy 85% treasury bonds and 15% gold. He recently changed to 30% gold and 70% treasuries. I don't think that he ever revealed what he personally was invested in, other than to let us know that he had moved most of his personal wealth into early stage start-ups. The fact of a guy telling you to buy something that he personally is not willing to hold should be setting off alarm bells in your head. I know it did for me.

intentional denial of facts or not? hmmmm.

those of us who have been here since the start... in 2001... know ej does not recommend anything... ever. by law, he can't...

not a certified financial advisor, etc...

he only tell us what he is doing hiself.

the facts here for anyone who wants to see them...

why don't you? hmmmm.

A little more on the issue of "recommendations". EJ has promoted at various time, a dubious currency trading firm called "Crooks on currency" ( love the name), A Boston area rental management firm, and a manufacturer of alcohol testing devices. He also makes regular stock market and occasional other market projections. For me, I see the site as primarily educational and informational, but for most people, the recommendations are THE MAIN PURPOSE OF THE SITE. If the recommendations are bad the site is considered bad. This is too bad, because it really is a terrific educational web site.

rental mgt firm, trutouch... not in my pay grade... but i guess if these were not successful... these internets being the xmission channel of all things bad & nothing good... we'd hear about it!!!

itulip tried all sorts of crap... leap 2020, crooks, stratfor... punted all of them except bullionvault & twin focus. how's that worked out? can't speak for twin focus but bvault... nicely...

oh, wait. you didn't listen to ej in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009... no not until you read 9000 other sites did you decide that 2010 as the right time to buy gold!

Another thing that is a bit off putting it the inscrutable notion of "insurance". EJ recommends a small percentage of your wealth be put into this "insurance" in the form of gold. The idea is that there is a razor thin chance that the dollar will experience hyperinflation,

wrong.

idea since 2001 is that the usa is supposed to be printing dollars that are 'good as gold'... instead gets itself on an asset price inflation/gov't debt treadmill... creditors hit the 'kill' switch some day... to stop the hyperinflation usa deploys 8000 tons of gold @ $2500 - $5000.

that's the idea written on this site... maybe you confuse ej with the 9000 other sites you read? maybe u need to read fewer?

and therefore you should "insure" yourself via a small percentage of your net worth in gold. Insurance is a sunk cost. You never get back the portion of your money you spend on the insurance unless the policy pays off. Also, It seems reasonable to assume that the percentage of your wealth devoted to the insurance is proportional to the risk. Since EJ has doubled the recommended percentage in the last few years, would it be reasonable to assume that the risk has doubled? If so why did EJ put his personal fortune into private equity? ( i.e. "Stocks" ).

u answer this yourself... he doubled his allocation from 15% to 30%...

I submit to you that you are not getting the whole story. Another alarm bell for me. Perhaps I'm making too much of this metaphor. If so I apologize. I never understood the entire concept, although I am coming around to the idea that there might be other things that would be better investments.

alarm bells.... hmmmmmm. hmmmmm....

[Thailandnotes]

Re: World Hyperinflations

...for most people, the recommendations are THE MAIN PURPOSE OF THE SITE.

I sincerely doubt that.

For me the main purpose of the site is to spend less time browsing the NYTimes, cause Don does it for you.

[doom&gloom]

Re: World Hyperinflations

What I saw was that the minute I started to post actual fact, Mr. Metal decided he didn't wish to hear any more. In any event, I will dig up the relevant links even though Mr. Metal has made himself scarce.

I don't usually 'take sides' but I truly think mm has you beat on this one.

Look at it this way, there is the micro, and the macro call. the micro-call is part of the "You are here", the macro is the long term safe trade. The micro will always be affected by shorter term issues, or as Mike Kreiger likes to say "there are no markets, only manipulations". OTOH, the macro call is the one that makes you money and keeps you safe.

EJ made a couple of brilliant early macro calls. Anyone who was in those calls early and has stayed there (wish that were me) would be well ahead of the general market this entire process, and sleeping soundly at night. Even YOU have to see the brilliance and logic as much.

OTOH, the micro calls, which are shorter term, are things that 'should' work out based upon normal economic steps, but can easily and suddenly be dashed on the rocks, or simply not come thru in the timeframe as planned by the 'manipulators'.

It is easy to throw rocks, but not as easy to create the glass house that everyone looks into when they see your analysis.

Ej is not perfect, and in some ways certainly not unique. but he is an amazingly thoughtful and dedicated thinker -- a skill vastly unappreciated by most.

I personally spent a LOT of time thinking about farming becore I got into the business. c1ue will never agree with my thesis, and that is fine. Most here have never commented on it, or even understand or care about it. I could be wrong, I could be right -- time will tell. But I spent many hours thinking of the ups and downs before a made a major committment. I understand what Ej does in my own way, so I can genuinely appreciate it. Unfortunately my mind is not so rigerous as his for economic detail, but I sure enjoy reading it.

I started this by saying I am not taking any sides, and I am not. I have never 'defended' mm before, but have chimed in a few times for my appreciation for Ej's work. I really encourage you to re-examine your approach in this thread. I think you are digging yourself a big hole.

[doom&gloom]

Re: World Hyperinflations

*snip*



You know, with so much bad blood in the air ( humm... cool metaphor ), I want to stick to actual quotes. This is why EJ says to buy gold:

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...ance#post79547

I'm not going to excerpt, highlight, bold or change it in any way. You draw your own conclusions.

I cannot even begin to figure out what your problem is with the above post. seriously.

I found myself in the same position telling people housing was gonna blow, only to have them look at me incredulously. I had a friend who literally bought at the peak of the market in Bend, OR, a town that has nothing but the now dwindling tourism to support it's high prices. I had a friend of a friend buy just before the high and double his house and payments, even though I took the time to lay it all out as to why he should not. I did have a friend who was a developer who did NOT do his next spec house, and he could not have been happier based upon what he learned from me.

I can tell you that I personally was literally 'scared' into gold by an EJ post, and after THAT, I began to take the time to understand what it was I had bought. My avge cost of all gold purchased is almost $600/oz below current prices today. I have no complaints, other than I wish I had done it sooner.

Finally, I find it interesting that you ignored my previous post about your whole approach in this forum thread. Was my basic logic too hard to understand?

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: World Hyperinflations

oh, geez... here we go. shall i be drawn in by the bait? can i help myself?

Mr. Metalman! You flatter me with your presence!

I'm starting to get tired of defending myself against moronic attacks. I think anybody that is not already a sycophant will instantly agree that EJ made a bad stock market call in 2009 and even went so far as to include this huge inspirational image to back up that point:
http://www.itulip.com/images/bunchofchehs.gif

I'm sure that many people invested money based on this analysis and lost it all that year. You are obviously ( to me anyway ) trying to twist this discussion into a statement that the Líder Máximo, had never been wrong on gold and treasury bonds. I went on to point out that EJ has a "Do as I say, Not as I do" policy with regards to investment ( the ostensible purpose of the site). This is patently true, and even you admit it. You referred me to a document titled "Hypothetical investment portfolio", which makes it clear that this is a fictional vision of what an idealized investment strategy would have done if some sucker had attempted it.
http://www.itulip.com/images2/itulip...erformance.gif

You say that EJ doesn't recommend stocks or other investments. This is a polite legal fiction. All so called informational investment web sites do this to cover their asses. Everybody understands the risks and the legal requirements, but everybody makes recommendations anyways. EJ's analysis are obviously recommendations to buy stocks or bonds or bogus currency investment funds.

EJ recommends you buy gold as insurance against hyperinflation where gold will hit $30,000/oz
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...ance#post79547

Only a delusional personality could read that any other way.

SO EJ, exactly what are you invested in? What have you done with your money and why should I also not do the same thing?

Oh! I almost forgot:

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: World Hyperinflations

Look at it this way, there is the micro, and the macro call. the micro-call is part of the "You are here", the macro is the long term safe trade. The micro will always be affected by shorter term issues, or as Mike Kreiger likes to say "there are no markets, only manipulations". OTOH, the macro call is the one that makes you money and keeps you safe.

I've been looking over this thread, and I cannot see any problem that I want to retract or alter. I honestly believe that an impartial reader will conclude that MM is acting like a jerk, inventing straw men and running off when it became obvious that I was in the right.

As far as the Macro/Micro call. Most people cannot tell the difference. I know I couldn't in 2009. I hesitated and saved what, at that time, was my life savings. All of this is overshadowed by the simple fact of a "Do as I say, Not as I do" policy.


I'm getting tired of this discussion. This is ludicrous. I'm trying to explain why I went big into gold in 2010 and I'm having an argument with a guy because I was not motivated to do this by EJ, A guy who by his own admission only owns gold for it's "Insurance" value. He specifically says he will not permit the words "Gold Investment" on his web site.

I'm done with this.

[metalman]

Re: World Hyperinflations

I've been looking over this thread, and I cannot see any problem that I want to retract or alter. I honestly believe that an impartial reader will conclude that MM is acting like a jerk, inventing straw men and running off when it became obvious that I was in the right.

As far as the Macro/Micro call. Most people cannot tell the difference. I know I couldn't in 2009. I hesitated and saved what, at that time, was my life savings. All of this is overshadowed by the simple fact of a "Do as I say, Not as I do" policy.


I'm getting tired of this discussion. This is ludicrous. I'm trying to explain why I went big into gold in 2010 and I'm having an argument with a guy because I was not motivated to do this by EJ, A guy who by his own admission only owns gold for it's "Insurance" value. He specifically says he will not permit the words "Gold Investment" on his web site.

I'm done with this.

better luck with your next thread than this one...