HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

4/8/08 Yesterday, I noted in another post that I had closed all my long equity ETF's and the reasons for doing so.

Currently I am neutal with regard to betting on the major indices going up or down, my bias for the moment is down, and I would bet that way, but I am tired and need some rest.

I am neutral gold and silver with positions in CEF, GTU offset by a position in DZZ.

I am still long 30-year bond interest rates and Hussman growth fund. I am short crude via DCR and have been getting a beating in the 0.69% position, it began being a 0.9% position.

I am about 78% in Treasury MMF.

[waysouth]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

The best way to start something is to find the end

If its a bear market(which in real terms measured in gold it is apart from say
commodities)then the only way to win is to loose the least,even gold is a loosing position because it pays no return

So if expectations are in those terms life becomes simpler?

[friendly_jacek]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

4/8/08 Yesterday, I noted in another post that I had closed all my long equity ETF's and the reasons for doing so.

Currently I am neutal with regard to betting on the major indices going up or down, my bias for the moment is down, and I would bet that way, but I am tired and need some rest.

I am neutral gold and silver with positions in CEF, GTU offset by a position in DZZ.

I am still long 30-year bond interest rates and Hussman growth fund. I am short crude via DCR and have been getting a beating in the 0.69% position, it began being a 0.9% position.

I am about 78% in Treasury MMF.

I guess your sentiment is representative of what is happening in the markets these days: exhaustion with low volume, almost like summer doldrums.

I guess this is because the weak hands sold out long time ago, the COT money are fully invested and there is no catalyst for a change. There are massive amounts of money on the sidelines (like yours). Time will show whether that money goes back to equities (I guess global and EM, but also to some extent US) to create the election year blowup so many people talk about, versus gold and commodities. Treasuries and bonds are slowly loosing propositions and investors know that.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I guess your sentiment is representative of what is happening in the markets these days: exhaustion with low volume, almost like summer doldrums.

I guess this is because the weak hands sold out long time ago, the COT money are fully invested and there is no catalyst for a change. There are massive amounts of money on the sidelines (like yours). Time will show whether that money goes back to equities (I guess global and EM, but also to some extent US) to create the election year blowup so many people talk about, versus gold and commodities. Treasuries and bonds are slowly loosing propositions and investors know that.

So, f_j, what are you doing?

[j4f2h0]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I am curious if anyone else reads Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letters?? I am 27 yrs old and have been taking my advice from him and a several others, if my investing journey, here is what it looks like so far
Physical Gold .45
Physical Silver .17
GDX .17
CASH .21

Pretty simple portfolio, i started loading up on metals 3yrs ago and haven't stopped. My GDX play seems like the right one, but will take awhile to pan out! Cheers, obv i am sure someone could give me a hard time for putting all the eggs in one basket, it just feels right though!! Cheers

[friendly_jacek]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Well, my composite indicator reads hold, while some indicators are close to the sell levels. Still long but probably should decrease the leverage some.

[BobinSFCA]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I am curious if anyone else reads Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letters?? I am 27 yrs old and have been taking my advice from him and a several others, if my investing journey, here is what it looks like so far
Physical Gold .45
Physical Silver .17
GDX .17
CASH .21

Pretty simple portfolio, i started loading up on metals 3yrs ago and haven't stopped. My GDX play seems like the right one, but will take awhile to pan out! Cheers, obv i am sure someone could give me a hard time for putting all the eggs in one basket, it just feels right though!! Cheers

At your young age, you are probably safe taking a chance following any variety of investment strategies you want to experiment with. For those of us who are older, a more conservative approach is probably in order.

I noticed in a thread yesterday, EJ said, "PMs are a place to be, not the place to be. I have never offered the opinion that an allocation of more than 15% of assets is wise for most investors, but of course that depends on who you are. My co-author of America\'s Bubble Economy: Profit When It Pops recommends 50%.

Over what period? Again, until the thesis that got us into PMs is no longer valid. Maybe that's in six months or six years. No one knows. All you can do is keep hammering on the thesis to make sure it's intact. The thesis that "gold is money" and "all fiat money sytems fail" etc. is the kind of ideological thinking that infects the PM market. I have met guys managing many millions of dollars who think this way and I find it shocking. They are going to lose their investors' money."

When I read EJ's book, I had put as much as 40% in PM, then when it hit $1k, I sold some and took the percentage down to 15%. The small profit I made, made up for the losses I had experienced with my Fidelity "Freedom" fund this year. I know nothing about investing and don't particularly enjoy the highs and lows of it, hence my original decision to be in a Freedom fund. Now I am following a simple strategy of 15 to 20% PM and the rest in FDIC insured CD's. I know many who might think this is a dumb strategy, but for someone who doesn't like to play the market and wants to preserve what little he has saved, it seems to make sense for the moment.

I would welcome some thoughts/opinions/advice on what others are doing.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Bobin,

Thanks for your comments. I have no advice. Do you have a symbol for whichever Freedom fund you are in? It is interesting to me to see what things individuals have been in have done on a chart.

[BobinSFCA]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Bobin,

Thanks for your comments. I have no advice. Do you have a symbol for whichever Freedom fund you are in? It is interesting to me to see what things individuals have been in have done on a chart.

Hi Jim. It was FFFCX, which is down about 3% since the beginning of the year. This was supposed to be a conservative fund for those retiring at or around 2010.

When it was down 7% is when I sold it off and moved my money into PM and CDs. Their other Freedom funds don't look like they have performed much better.

[phirang]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

At your young age, you are probably safe taking a chance following any variety of investment strategies you want to experiment with. For those of us who are older, a more conservative approach is probably in order.

I noticed in a thread yesterday, EJ said, "PMs are a place to be, not the place to be. I have never offered the opinion that an allocation of more than 15% of assets is wise for most investors, but of course that depends on who you are. My co-author of America\'s Bubble Economy: Profit When It Pops recommends 50%.

Over what period? Again, until the thesis that got us into PMs is no longer valid. Maybe that's in six months or six years. No one knows. All you can do is keep hammering on the thesis to make sure it's intact. The thesis that "gold is money" and "all fiat money sytems fail" etc. is the kind of ideological thinking that infects the PM market. I have met guys managing many millions of dollars who think this way and I find it shocking. They are going to lose their investors' money."

When I read EJ's book, I had put as much as 40% in PM, then when it hit $1k, I sold some and took the percentage down to 15%. The small profit I made, made up for the losses I had experienced with my Fidelity "Freedom" fund this year. I know nothing about investing and don't particularly enjoy the highs and lows of it, hence my original decision to be in a Freedom fund. Now I am following a simple strategy of 15 to 20% PM and the rest in FDIC insured CD's. I know many who might think this is a dumb strategy, but for someone who doesn't like to play the market and wants to preserve what little he has saved, it seems to make sense for the moment.

I would welcome some thoughts/opinions/advice on what others are doing.

Intellectually, i'm very sanguine about pm's. Practically, i have maybe 5% in the stuff.

I think the key is to build a position over time, as you learn more about the mkt(or think you do). John Williams in Shadowstats did a great job summarizing why pm's will dominate in the coming years, and it has more to do with medicare and SS than anything else...

I'll stay long gold until volker comes in or exxon is nationalised.

[quigleydoor]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

The idea behind my approach is that I only have to check things once a week to move my portfolio, and only if there is some extraordinary movement I'm checking things more thoroughly, any way investing for me must not distract me from my day job as IT manager and costumer service engineer, at least not yet.

I'm with you, Ocelotl. This is my current position:

Asset Class	Weight
Diversified commodities, natural resource equities, inflation-indexed securities	30%
US T-Notes and short term corporate bonds	22%
US equity, large cap	16%
Global equity	16%
Non-USD sovereign bonds	6%
Hussman HSGFX	5%
US equity, small/mid cap	5%

I have not made any adjustments to this model in about 6 months, since the positions have stayed within 5% of my targets.

I have been using this model, making some tweaks at the margin, for years. Right now it's down -4% from the high point it reached in February. The long term performance is pretty good: 1999 Q3 to 2008 Q1 annualized performance is 10.87%.

[renewable]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Very few mention any real estate in portfolios - Is this because no real estate is owned, or it isn't regarded as an investment?

[Guest]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

4/8/08 Yesterday, I noted in another post that I had closed all my long equity ETF's and the reasons for doing so ....

______________

Jim -

As far as I can tell, you've sold your significant market long positions at precisely the wrong time in the market. You hung on to them all the way down since last August, and you are selling them precisely as the market is going to turn up for a prolonged corrective rally.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

______________

Jim -

As far as I can tell, you've sold your significant market long positions at precisely the wrong time in the market. You hung on to them all the way down since last August, and you are selling them precisely as the market is going to turn up for a prolonged corrective rally.

Lukester,

I don't know how far off you personally can tell, or how far off or correctly your advisors can see, but I manage my own investments and when I wish to sell them I do or buy them I shall. Just who do you follow that tells you the future? I am relatively sure you are incapable of seeing it for yourself just as I am.

But just as I sold them, I can rebuy them when I decide it is time again to put my money at risk.

Looking forward to your answer, as I expect others may be.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Very few mention any real estate in portfolios - Is this because no real estate is owned, or it isn't regarded as an investment?

I own my home, mostly, and a percentage of an office building. I just don't count them when I am thinking in terms of liquid investable monies.