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Thanks for the suggestion - I don't speculate in stock/ETFs until I have a good internalized idea on how they behave. But I will put FAZ on the observation list.
It is now the time for another update for those of you who cares. Comments and suggestion are always welcome.
I am particularly pleased of calendar year 2009, since so far, my portfolio is up 7.27%.
Most of my gains are derived from my PMs position. Remember; my base currency is the $CAD.
However, all is not good news: my Crude Oil position, via a 2X ETF (HOU.TO on Toronto Stock Exchange) is down roughly 40% due to contango I believe. Hayekvindicated pointed out to me that contango can really be bad for the health of your portfolio and I guess he was right. However, I still like the leverage and the fact that it is $CAD hedged (index follows next month NYMEX Crude Oil contracts in USD).
As of today, here is my "inflate me away baby" portfolio:
Cash
46.8%
Gold
33.4%
Platinum
7.0%
Silver
6.4%
Crude Oil (HOU)
5.5%
Palladium
0.7%
Natural Gas (HNU)
0.4%
Total:
100.0%
Note that "cash" means CDIC member banks (FDIC equivalent in Canada) insured GICs yielding roughly 4%. No one account exceeds the $100K limit covered by the Canadian Federal Gov.
I locked the rate for 18months back in September/October 2008 since I am a lucky guy. I can also sell the GICs at anytime, but the yield will be readjusted to 1.5% (if EJ says POOM is tomorrow for example).
I have no RE exposure, since I am a renter. Given the fact that I am an iTuliper, I don't think I need to mention that I do not have any other debt whatsoever (including car loan).
Lastly, special thanks to iTulipand its members for incredible-easy to read (well mostly :p) analysis, comments, discussions and suggestions.
I have about 50-60 percent of my hard cash in gold. And 40 percent in USD. My illiquid asset is un-built land in India (which went up more than 50 percent in price in the last 12 months - not bad considering what happened to real estate everywhere in the world).
In terms of performance, my portfolio returned north of 50 percent in 2008 but that's in Sterling (the currency in which I get paid).
I desperately need some suggestions on what to do with my cash. I would like to buy commodities but not sure whats the best way to do it (given my contango point above). I would also need to open a brokerage account in some place like Canada (which is not going to go bust anytime soon - unlike the UK) because I fear exchange controls and asset controls in the UK. Which Canadian brokers are good? What protection do I get as a retail investor if I opened an account with them?
Any suggestions here would be very gratefully received.
If they were to go under, I believe your assets (stocks etc.) would be safe, but any cash balances may be at risk (note that I am not a lawyer or an expert on the subject, this is simply my 2cents).
As for me, cash above a certain limit that is not to be invested in stocks or PMs, is kept in a CDIC-insured bank (limit of insurance of $100K per bank/ per account):
If they were to go under, I believe your assets (stocks etc.) would be safe, but any cash balances may be at risk (note that I am not a lawyer or an expert on the subject, this is simply my 2cents).
As for me, cash above a certain limit that is not to be invested in stocks or PMs, is kept in a CDIC-insured bank (limit of insurance of $100K per bank/ per account):
I am unsure if the protection also applies to non-Canadian citizen however, so be careful.
A ton of info there. Thanks!
A friend of mine is playing oil by going long oil service companies (OIH). He reckons that's a better bet than buying an ETF which suffers during Contango.
Exited today my long F position @2.93 . That may have been too early, but I got cold feet. IMHO this is not a time for being greedy and taking unnecessary risks. Anyway, riding F common from 1.87 to 2.93 with 10 % of portfolio resulted in a profit of 56% in 3 weeks, which comes to 5.6% increase in the whole value of the portfolio. Good enough for me.
Switched the part of proceeds (about 10 % of current portfolio) in LEN shorts (@ 9.6). This may be a long and high risk ride entered at a too lower value ... but... what the hell ???!!! sitting in 70% cash is extremely boring.
Planning to exit the TLT shorts (got them @120.49) somewhere bellow 95-97 depending on market conditions.
I've been riding MSFT Jan 20 calls picked up below $1 for a nice gain. Missed the low in the oil stocks but I've some DXO.
I played SRS a few times and made some fast $ (never stay in that more than a week). In URE since Friday now with the same agenda.
But...do people think this bear rally has decent legs? Lots of the shorts (SRS, SDS, SKF) look really tempting -- eventually these are going to roar again.
Exited today my long F position @2.93 . That may have been too early, but I got cold feet. IMHO this is not a time for being greedy and taking unnecessary risks. Anyway, riding F common from 1.87 to 2.93 with 10 % of portfolio resulted in a profit of 56% in 3 weeks, which comes to 5.6% increase in the whole value of the portfolio. Good enough for me.
Switched the part of proceeds (about 10 % of current portfolio) in LEN shorts (@ 9.6). This may be a long and high risk ride entered at a too lower value ... but... what the hell ???!!! sitting in 70% cash is extremely boring.
Planning to exit the TLT shorts (got them @120.49) somewhere bellow 95-97 depending on market conditions.
Exited today LEN short position (10% portfolio) @7.1 . This trade was much faster than I expected ... but well, ... Mr Market is now on Kool-Aid and I have very low risk appetite.
80:5:15 cash,stocks,pm I add to my PM on every dip. Hope I'm not too late to the party.
Shorted Real Estate too quick bought SRS at 35. Hope we have a little down trend. P/E's on stocks are too high for the state of the economy.
I expcect a down turn some time. With cash getting no respect i'm looking for places to put it to work but with the economic machine wound so tight, i am chicken.
I used to work for Sequent Computers in Beaverton. Awesome place man.
Lots of good beer.
I can relate I bought FAZ (3 x inverse financials) right before the bogus stress test results and got killed by that burst of phony ebullience. However I'm confident that when the dust settles and folks start realizing that there's not enough tarps in the world to save the banks asses things should start to go well with FAZ.
For now I have a small position in FAZ and a smaller position in DXD. (I even threw a couple hundred on a June 9 FAZ call. All the rest in cash. All that money and no place to put it. Sigh. Remain confident shit will hit fan but not sure when. Obama bear rally may still have some life in it. Collective wisdom I hear is that by August it all should start tanking for sure.
Bty learned about an interesting play today called a pairing. This used RIMM and AAPL. Theory is they move together but AAPL will perform better than RIMM according to the TA. So with same cash amounts short RIMM and buy AAPL and if they go down and RIMM declines more than AAPL you make the difference. And if they go up and AAPL goes up more than RIMM you still make the difference. Only danger is if RIMM outperforms AAPL which looks very unlikely. I am trying it in a test account and it looks like it could work. Just started today. Anyone know anything about this? Regards, Ed
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