HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

[WDCRob]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

First, WDC, did what I suggest previously work for you to figure rates?

Jim, I may not be the one to explain this, but I don't like your method. By assuming an equal nominal return for every time period you're basically assuming a diminishing rate of return in the future.

For example... 100 to 102 is a 2% gain, but 200 to 202 is only a 1% gain. IMO you'd be better off to use the percentage return over the past period if you're going to project into the future. Which, as we've already said, is more or less pointless.

But honestly, you have to do what works for you. JK and GRG are both far more experienced and savvy than I am, but I couldn't do things the way they describe - just wouldn't work for me.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Jim, I may not be the one to explain this, but I don't like your method. By assuming an equal nominal return for every time period you're basically assuming a diminishing rate of return in the future.

For example... 100 to 102 is a 2% gain, but 200 to 202 is only a 1% gain. IMO you'd be better off to use the percentage return over the past period if you're going to project into the future. Which, as we've already said, is more or less pointless.

But honestly, you have to do what works for you. JK and GRG are both far more experienced and savvy than I am, but I couldn't do things the way they describe - just wouldn't work for me.

I don't think I focus on the $2 gain, I focus on the difference of 1% and 2%. The world would be a very dull place if we all did everything the same. I think the important thing is that individuals do their best to develop the abilities to manage their own monies. It is a worthwhile goal, and if achieved with some degree of success, then one doesn't have to worry about going broke seeking super-riches via hedge funds.

[GeraldRiggs]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

how does this thread keep coming back to the top?????

[WDCRob]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Because it's the best damn thread in the history of iTulip?

No, ok - maybe not.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

how does this thread keep coming back to the top?????

There are some posters here whose comments I don't care to attempt to ferret through. When I come upon such, in order to get it out of the New Posts list, I hit the > by the poster's name, bring it up, then do Ctrl-home and hit New Posts again and continue to those of interest to me. No big deal for the nimble-fingered typeist.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

3/3/08 Monday. I opened ~ 1% positions in SKF, SRS, DXD, SDS, QID, and TWM. These all move -200% to the underlying indices.

3/4/08 Tuesday. Have you ever imagined a conversation that might take place in one of these big crowded clubs where everyone is partying like there is no tomorrow, and one guy asks another do I smell smoke, and the other says nah, keep partying, and then another guy says well, maybe I do smell smoke, and the second guy says nah, keep partying. What woud you do? I hope I would go outside and discuss it further.

I sort of "read" the impression on iTulip as more than one or two people are wondering about whether they smell smoke with precious metals. I surmise the collective wisdom is, "Nah, keep partying."

Today I liquidated all my positions in GLD, SLV, GTU, RJZ, RJA, DBA, NLR, DIG, and GEX all of which are in an IRA so no tax consequences.

I maintained my CEF and GTU in a personal account.

I added 1% today to DXD, SDS, QID, and TWM, thus bringing those positions to about 2% each in my total portfolio.

Note I did not open up any short positions against the PM's. I did something similar in November 1999. Liquidated a lot of long stuff, and went short some indices with some inverse mutual funds and was hurt badly in a very short period of time. So I don't know where gold, silver and the miners represented by GTU are going next, but they have been going up too strongly for my tastes. I noted elsewhere tonight Platinum is up 64+% in 4 months and silver is up 51% in 3 months. I can live with my profits that I locked in today. The longest any of the positions had been open was an original position of 1.3% held since mid-July in GLD. Everything else was opened since December 2007.

I had a 0.5% position in GEX (global alternative energy ETF) which I sold today. That fund has moved rather closely to how the major equity indices have moved. It's behavior so far does not show that it is moving counter to the rest of the equity market. I don't know how good a proxy, if at all, this fund is for the iTulip's "next bubble mentality," but were it to be even close to representative of such a proxy, it suggests to me that alternative energy is not ready to move up now. That is my impression.

It's late, maybe tomorrow I'll put in my gains and losses on the positions I liquidated yesterday and today (Tuesday 3/4).

Above is where I left off last week.

For whatever it's worth, to address a point brought up by WDCRob. Here are the positions with profits/loss from sales on 3/4 last week.
____________GAIN _____% GAIN/LOSS

GEX	(405.05)	-8.44%
NLR	305.110	3.24%
DIG	751.580	7.34%
GLD	7,358.490	34.51%
SLV	5,514.680	38.76%
GDX	1,292.910	6.54%
RJA	1,610.920	15.98%
RJZ	2,294.910	23.76%
DBA	2,514.300	25.41%
	21,237.85	19.41%
	109409.65

The 19.41% is the total gain or the total original capital of ~109K. The longest ago any portion that comprised the final positon of those above was bought 7/19/07, a bit of the GLD position back then. Everything else was bought between 12/4/07 and 2/13/08.

For fun?, the annual percentage gain if figured as though all portions of all positions were bought on 7/19/07 and sold 3/04/08 would be 30.9%. If the actual annual percentage gains on all the positions were figured and averaged it would be even higher. None of the ways to compute this for periods of holdings less than one year are as important as is the actual gain or loss simply put up for the realized gain/loss as I choose to think about it.

3/7/2008	POSITION	% INVESTD	NOW GAIN	% GAIN	ALLOCATION
DJ US REALESTATE	SRS	1.07%	687	6.01%
DJ US FINANCIALS	SKF	1.18%	1,069	8.72%
DOW	DXD	1.87%	879	4.34%
NDX	QID	1.84%	425	2.10%
SPX	SDS	1.86%	825	4.10%
RUT	TWM	1.89%	1,166	5.80%	9.71%
GOLD & SILVER	CEF	0.86%	3,660	60.60%
PM MINING	GDX	0.00%	0	0.00%
GOLD	GLD	0.00%	0	0.00%
SILVER	SLV	0.00%	0	0.00%
GOLD	GTU	1.30%	4,994	51.97%	8.32%
METALS	RJZ	0.00%	0	0.00%
COMM AGRIC	DBA	0.00%	0	0.00%
COMM AGRIC	RJA	0.00%	0	0.00%	0.00%
GLBL ALT ENERGY	GEX	0.00%	0	0.00%
NUCLEAR	NLR	0.00%	0	0.00%
DJ US OIL GAS	DIG	0.00%	0	0.00%	0.00%
YEN	FXY	10.29%	14,714	14.44%
YIELD ON 30YR-BOND	RRPIX	3.19%	-807	-2.15%
HEDGED EQUITY	HSGFX	18.76%	9,103	4.50%	32.24%
		44.11%	36,716	7.95%
	BOLD GREEN SYMBOLS = MOVE +200% OF RESPECTIVE INDICES
	BOLD RED SYMBOLS = MOVE -200% OF RESPECTIVE INDICES

Table above is where I stood Friday. What's next? I don't know, nor do I believe anyone actually does.

Using Paul Desmond's 90% up or down predominance in volume and points on the NYSE, there now have been seven 90% down days in volume and points on the NYSE beginning 12/11/07, followed by 12/27, 1/04/08, 1/15, 2/05, 2/29, and on 3/06. I may be wrong in stating this, but I don't believe there has ever such a short period of so many such negative days. These days suggest more down trending.

The markets are reaching an oversold state again with regard to the advances/declines, new highs/new lows, McClellan Oscillators for NYSE and Nasdaq, and the 19-day EMA of the $VGY. Thursday the CBOE Equity put/call ratio was 1.12 and a 10-day EMA of that was .8666, the highest it has been since 8/10/04 which was two days prior to a significant bottom.

Looking for some upside equity market movement in here doesn't seem far-fetched to me right now, and it may occur.

I would like it if the markets continue down for some more to offer me a little "padding" for the profits I quickly picked up in the six -200% positions I opened last week. Too bad, I cannot sell those on Monday and actually realize the dollar amount of whatever their annualized gains were through Friday.

I wrote somewhere here today I may add to my SKF and SRS Monday after reading some opinions about where the Financials and Commerical Real Estate markets are yet to go. I'll just have to see.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

After I ran across a radio interview tonight (Sunday) which I put up in the Bearish Tread I decided to go ahead and add to my -200% short positions in SRS, SKF, DXD, SDS, QID, and TWM, and I put in my market orders to buy in the morning. In doing this I am also swayed that the Asia market are down tonight as I have followed them, though I am not at all convinced how they do tonight or any night foretell how the US will do tomorrow. We'll see.

[GRG55]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

After I ran across a radio interview tonight (Sunday) which I put up in the Bearish Tread I decided to go ahead and add to my -200% short positions in SRS, SKF, DXD, SDS, QID, and TWM, and I put in my market orders to buy in the morning. In doing this I am also swayed that the Asia market are down tonight as I have followed them, though I am not at all convinced how they do tonight or any night foretell how the US will do tomorrow. We'll see.

Jim: For the first time in many, many years I am coming around to the feeling that one may not want to be long anything, other than core precious metals and select currencies (Swiss, Yen, Loonie, maybe Singapore Dollar), Adding to bear market positions might make the most sense as the flee bonar move now.

The ECB stuff last week had such an effect on me that I bought some FXP (short China) mid-week, so our thinking at the macro level would appear similar. The dollar is getting hammered again this morning in Asia. This really does look like its Newton's first law being practiced on a steep incline.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Jim: For the first time in many, many years I am coming around to the feeling that one may not want to be long anything, other than core precious metals and select currencies (Swiss, Yen, Loonie, maybe Singapore Dollar), Adding to bear market positions might make the most sense as the flee bonar move now.

The ECB stuff last week had such an effect on me that I bought some FXP (short China) mid-week, so our thinking at the macro level would appear similar. The dollar is getting hammered again this morning in Asia. This really does look like its Newton's first law being practiced on a steep incline.

I appreciate your comment. I expect in more ways I can imagine that your perspective must differ from that of an American (you are a Canadian resident as I understand) and I presume the basis for all your investments must the the CAD (and I am not trying to get into your personal affairs here). It amazes me that you contribute all that you do here with what seems to me to be the perspective of an US based person.

I keep thinking about this currency issue, and the things I have become aware of here on iTulip, and these currency plays--invest in things like the FX* ETF's--are really not any different from anything else anyone ?smart? might be investing in, i.e. any instrument that at some point in the future hopefully will have returned a lot of bonars for us US based investors (bettors). Is there anything about my thinking on this with which you, GRG, or anyone else disagrees? I almost feel as though that is a stupid question, but it seems "everyone" (whoever that is) is writing that the best place to be are in certain foreign currencies, commodities, PM's. I don't see the difference in end points between any of those and anything else which may in the future provide whoever owns them with more US dollars.

I've looked at FXF and the others (owning only FXY myself) and as I noted previously they all look to be up too much for me at least to enter and the same for most commoditiy ETF's and PM's as I evaluate them. That is why I am long so relatively many short ETF's.

And anyone who wishes to respond, please do waste time writing about risks--because I think everything that exists right now is super risky.

[jk]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I appreciate your comment. I expect in more ways I can imagine that your perspective must differ from that of an American (you are a Canadian resident as I understand) and I presume the basis for all your investments must the the CAD (and I am not trying to get into your personal affairs here). It amazes me that you contribute all that you do here with what seems to me to be the perspective of an US based person.

I keep thinking about this currency issue, and the things I have become aware of here on iTulip, and these currency plays--invest in things like the FX* ETF's--are really not any different from anything else anyone ?smart? might be investing in, i.e. any instrument that at some point in the future hopefully will have returned a lot of bonars for us US based investors (bettors). Is there anything about my thinking on this with which you, GRG, or anyone else disagrees? I almost feel as though that is a stupid question, but it seems "everyone" (whoever that is) is writing that the best place to be are in certain foreign currencies, commodities, PM's. I don't see the difference in end points between any of those and anything else which may in the future provide whoever owns them with more US dollars.

I've looked at FXF and the others (owning only FXY myself) and as I noted previously they all look to be up too much for me at least to enter and the same for most commoditiy ETF's and PM's as I evaluate them. That is why I am long so relatively many short ETF's.

And anyone who wishes to respond, please do waste time writing about risks--because I think everything that exists right now is super risky.

i'm with you, jim. either put money into anti-dollar plays or, if they're too dear, put it into anti-equity plays. the crisis is centered in the credit system, and so far the equity markets have been, to my mind at least, relatively sanguine. that should mean there's more value in anti-equity plays right now.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Thank you, jk, for your perspective. Truly, it helps knowing The Brain does not disagree.

As I wrote late last night, I put in my orders and when I checked this morning I had added to SKF ~2.2%, SRS ~2.2%, and ~1.1% each to DXD, SDS, QID, and TWM. For once something I bought did not immediately go down.

The markets are oversold using NYSE and Nasdaq A/D issue and volume data, but today according to my data was the 8th 90% down day in volume and points on the NYSE since 12/11/07. That suggests to me there is a lot of fear in the markets, but I am not intepreting this to suggest any sort of a serious bottom is in place. The CBOE Equity and OEX put/call data are also suggesting at least a bounce in here, and it would not surprise me to see that begin in the next 2-4 days. If the markets bounce, I don't think it will carry far. For a more bullish perspective check out this post by santafe2 from Monday morning before the markets opened 3/10/08.

Personally, I don't think there is probably a snowball's chance in hell that the highs from the summer or fall are likely to be tested this year despite it being a presidential election year and despite any lame efforts by anyone in politics or in banking, Fed or otherwise, to turn the markets around.

The breadth data were worse on 7/27/07 than they are now and the SPX subsequently gained ~40$ over eight sessions, but in four additional days was 152 points lower than it was on 7/27/07, and this latter low of 1406 marked the August bottom. I'm not confident the markets are going lower, but that is where my bets are placed.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Last week was a hellish week, especially Tueday, if one was short the equity indices, real estate, and financials as I was and still am. My portfolios lost 23.5K on Tuesday, god bless the Fed, but by week's end I had a couple of hundred bonars loss, not including inflation.

I have worried since Friday, that the US markets may bounce perhaps significantly in here. I tend to be lulled into thinking that what happens in Asia spreads westward, but that does always happen, so despite the seeming bump in Asia that all this US "liquidity injection" isn't helping, I hold hope that it won't help tomorrow, this week, this month, this quarter, this year, and that things actually get so bad our gifted officials at Bank, Treasury, and White House fear to be seen in public, and most of all stop being interviewed and stop spewing lies upon lies. The dudes have no shame.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Monday, 3/17/08. I closed my ~3.5% position in SKF today for profit of 4.75% in 14 days, and closed ~2.25% of an ~3.5% position in DXD for 1.35% profit in 14 days. If I could make myself overcome greed and go ahead and take profits when things are up fairly well without subconsciously thinking "this baby may go higher," I might get some decent gains. But I don't know if I can overcome that tendancy.

So what's next with our buddies at the FED and their unending commitment to torpedo the value of the bonar?

There's the old saw of "don't fight the Fed." But so far since the first cut on 9/18/07, there is no mistake that not fighting the Fed and maintaining any serious long positions in equities would have been disastrous at least for me.

The equity markets are really oversold with regard to breadth now and have been such for 6 market days and despite the 400$ pop in the DJI last Tuesday.

The CBOE equity put/call ratio tonight was 1.35, 1.16 yesterday, and 1.12 on 3/6/08. The 1.35 ratio is the highest I have with data back to 10/1/02. The 10-day EMA of that ratio was 0.998 tonight--the highest reading in my data. This is extreme bearishness and also the AAII and II polls from last week are at extremes that generally exist at or near bottoms.

Coupling all this together it makes a reasonable case not to continue my existing short positions too long into tomorrow. I would like for the market to futz around until the FED releases the results of its carefully considered deliberations.

Longer term, perhaps 8-10 weeks, based on what I read and the data I try to follow, I think there will be yet another retest of these last new closing lows last Monday and the retesting of them that occurred today. Will there be a rally in here, and will new lows still be established in days to months? No one I believe knows, but I'm betting "yes" to the first query, and probably "yes' to the second.

[raja]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Monday, 3/17/08. I closed my ~3.5% position in SKF today for profit of 4.75% in 14 days, and closed ~2.25% of an ~3.5% position in DXD for 1.35% profit in 14 days. If I could make myself overcome greed and go ahead and take profits when things are up fairly well without subconsciously thinking "this baby may go higher," I might get some decent gains. But I don't know if I can overcome that tendancy.

So what's next with our buddies at the FED and their unending commitment to torpedo the value of the bonar?

There's the old saw of "don't fight the Fed." But so far since the first cut on 9/18/07, there is no mistake that not fighting the Fed and maintaining any serious long positions in equities would have been disastrous at least for me.

The equity markets are really oversold with regard to breadth now and have been such for 6 market days and despite the 400$ pop in the DJI last Tuesday.

The CBOE equity put/call ratio tonight was 1.35, 1.16 yesterday, and 1.12 on 3/6/08. The 1.35 ratio is the highest I have with data back to 10/1/02. The 10-day EMA of that ratio was 0.998 tonight--the highest reading in my data. This is extreme bearishness and also the AAII and II polls from last week are at extremes that generally exist at or near bottoms.

Coupling all this together it makes a reasonable case not to continue my existing short positions too long into tomorrow. I would like for the market to futz around until the FED releases the results of its carefully considered deliberations.

Longer term, perhaps 8-10 weeks, based on what I read and the data I try to follow, I think there will be yet another retest of these last new closing lows last Monday and the retesting of them that occurred today. Will there be a rally in here, and will new lows still be established in days to months? No one I believe knows, but I'm betting "yes" to the first query, and probably "yes' to the second.

I foolishly bought into Schift's Black Monday prognostication, loaded up on shorts like SKF, and now they are tanking.
Since I believe that the market will eventually drop -- in a big way -- so I'm resisting the urge to sell now and absorb some losses.
Also, there may be some bad news like another bank failure that causes the market to drop sharply -- the idea being that people will think "even after the big Fed cut, look what happened, we better get outa Dodge."
But like you say . . . who knows? :rolleyes:

[touchring]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Sorry for an amatuer question. Is SKF a put with a deadline? If not, you can hold longer?

I'm also waiting and considering whether to buy some SKF, thought that the market will bounce up a little more with that rate cut thing. :confused:

I foolishly bought into Schift's Black Monday prognostication, loaded up on shorts like SKF, and now they are tanking.
Since I believe that the market will eventually drop -- in a big way -- so I'm resisting the urge to sell now and absorb some losses.
Also, there may be some bad news like another bank failure that causes the market to drop sharply -- the idea being that people will think "even after the big Fed cut, look what happened, we better get outa Dodge."
But like you say . . . who knows? :rolleyes: