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HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

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  • Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

    What to do with money is no clearer this year than last year except that real assets appear to be the place to be, especially gold.

    My garage and my jumbo-resawed cedar shake roof is done on my cabin, so now I have a story-book kind of log cabin set-up in British Columbia, and my cash reserves which have earned ZERO have been reduced. It seems to me that this is a reasonable strategy still.

    I have a heavy oil, gas, and nuclear emphasis in my stock market investments. Much of my investments are in oil and gas income trusts, so I draw a decent interest rate of return while I wait for oil and gas to go up. These oil and gas trusts are in north-east Alberta in the oil sands, so they are in heavy oil.

    The interesting news to-day is that the U.S. economy is now functioning at just 69% of capacity. Apparently, this is a record low, so whatever this economic mess is, it sounds like it is deeper and worse than the Great Depression.... But what do I know?

    And one member of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank said that we have averted a severe recession. I guess this guy was trying to put a positive spin on a disaster thanks to the Fed and Bernanke failing to make their Keynsian economics work, even after trillions of dollars of new money injected into the economy.

    Another piece of news to-day is that energy stoxx sank, including mine, because energy companies have no market for new energy production--- energy of all types is in surplus supply. This jives with the 69% figure for economic capacity utilization in the U.S, so a massive economic collapse is underway..... Yet, Bernanke, Larry Kudlow on CNBC, and Wall Street keep talking about "green shoots of new growth appearing in the economy".... What are they smoking?

    As I said, the future seems no clearer now than one year ago. This appears to be a down-turn that is much worse than the Japanese down-turn and something worse than the down-turn of the Great Depression in the U.S.... And this kind of makes sense because how could Keynsian economics work a miracle now when it never worked any miracles in the 1929-1941 Depression? Keynsian economics failed in Japan in the 1990 down-turn there, as well.

    But don't confuse the idiots who run the Fed with the facts of economics and the facts of history. They are educated in Keynsian economics, so inflation is what is going to be. Hence, I sit with my house and my gold and my energy stocks.
    Last edited by Starving Steve; May 15, 2009, 06:05 PM.

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    • Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

      Originally posted by Orforded View Post
      I can relate I bought FAZ (3 x inverse financials) right before the bogus stress test results and got killed by that burst of phony ebullience. However I'm confident that when the dust settles and folks start realizing that there's not enough tarps in the world to save the banks asses things should start to go well with FAZ.
      Following is a link to an article that explains the dangers of inverse and multiple ETFs.
      http://news.morningstar.com/articlen...aspx?id=272055
      Various threads here on iTulip have explained the issues as well. I really recommend that you read up on these

      The bottom line is that TIMING IS EVERYTHING with these ETFs. They are only suitable for very short term trading. If you try to buy and hold for any length of time* while the market meanders around up and down a little you will get killed, even if you are right eventually.

      *weeks, not months. I think that with a 3x inverse ETF you have to really get the timing right.
      Last edited by leegs; May 16, 2009, 08:59 AM. Reason: Added last 3 sentences.

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      • Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

        Orf, took the opposite position as you as I suspected the tests would be a sham and bought out-of-money calls on Citi and Fifth Third. This worked quite well, only wish I had flip-flopped the larger amount on FITB. I also bought longer dated calls on FAZ this week.

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        • Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

          Note: *** My investment strategy is tailored to my needs/risk tolerance. You make up your own mind (preferably using EJ's research) ***

          Here is my latest allocation:

          Cash

          53.7%

          Gold

          27.9%

          Platinum

          6.6%

          Natural Gas (HNU)

          5.6%

          Silver

          5.5%

          Palladium

          0.8%

          Total:

          100.0%


          I recently allocating up all my "speculative money" (about 5%) in HNU.TO (see the thread: What is going on with Natural Gas? for more details).

          Trading of my speculative money in NG has been profitable this year (25%+ return twice, for a net impact of +2% on my overall portfolio).

          I am up 2.31% overall (in $CAD terms). This is due to a decline in my PMs value in $CAD term, offset by the NG trades above and return on cash.

          Again, cash means $CAD @ roughly 4% p.a. (ST bonds due to expire in late 2009 / early 2010).


          Next move: sell NG at a profit hopefully above $7.00 / share (I went in at $5.79 last week and $5.55 yesterday).

          I am also waiting desperately for a pullback in Silver to increase my allocation of Silver closer to 10% of my portfolio.


          All of this may of course change based on iTulip's research at anytime... ;)

          Comment


          • Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

            And here is my latest allocation:


            Cash

            53.7%

            Gold

            14.9%

            PGMs

            2.6%

            Oil/Gas equities

            23.0%

            Silver

            0.6%

            DUG

            5.2%

            Total:

            100.0%


            As soon as I have technical evidence of a top in crude oil I will double my position in DUG as a hedge against my oil & gas equities, which I plan to keep. (I'll also consider selling my shares of OXY; i've already sold APC.)

            I may double the amount I hold in precious metals - as soon as I have evidence that any "rally" in the Bernanke Peso (US Dollar) has ended.

            Cash means US Treasury Bills.

            Comment


            • Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

              Originally posted by Raz View Post
              And here is my latest allocation:


              Cash

              53.7%

              Gold

              14.9%

              PGMs

              2.6%

              Oil/Gas equities

              23.0%

              Silver

              0.6%

              DUG

              5.2%

              Total:

              100.0%


              As soon as I have technical evidence of a top in crude oil I will double my position in DUG as a hedge against my oil & gas equities, which I plan to keep. (I'll also consider selling my shares of OXY; i've already sold APC.)

              I may double the amount I hold in precious metals - as soon as I have evidence that any "rally" in the Bernanke Peso (US Dollar) has ended.

              Cash means US Treasury Bills.
              Raz, not only you copied my carefully crafted allocation "formating", but you also did the same with my position in cash down to the 1/10 of one percent (at 53.7%).

              What is the saying again? It has something to do with imitation and Flattery...

              Comment


              • Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

                I know this sounds like a broken record, but since we are all sharing...

                Here's mine:

                90% physical Au/Ag (50/50 by dollar amount invested)
                5% uranium and silver miners
                5% cash

                Please note: (does not include the 20% guns, ammo and food, Too hard to recalculate the percentages, and not every one agrees that guns, ammo, and food are "investments").

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                • Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?



                  7/1/09 .
                  Attached Files
                  Jim 69 y/o

                  "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

                  Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

                  Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

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                  • Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

                    Originally posted by LargoWinch View Post
                    Raz, not only you copied my carefully crafted allocation "formating", but you also did the same with my position in cash down to the 1/10 of one percent (at 53.7%).

                    What is the saying again? It has something to do with imitation and Flattery...
                    "Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery". Yes, indeed.

                    I copied your table because (1) I liked it, and (2) it was easier than building my own!
                    I couldn't believe the cash percentage either, so I checked and rechecked but it still came out 53.681% !!!:eek:

                    Oh well, great minds think alike.;)
                    Last edited by Raz; July 01, 2009, 11:06 PM. Reason: Thought of a better closing line!

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                    • Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

                      Originally posted by Raz View Post
                      "Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery". Yes, indeed.

                      [
                      I couldn't believe the cash percentage either, so I checked and rechecked but it still came out 53.681% !!!:eek:

                      Oh well, great minds think alike.;)
                      O think you're "fibbing"

                      Comment


                      • Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

                        Originally posted by jtabeb View Post
                        I know this sounds like a broken record, but since we are all sharing...

                        Here's mine:

                        90% physical Au/Ag (50/50 by dollar amount invested)
                        5% uranium and silver miners
                        5% cash

                        Please note: (does not include the 20% guns, ammo and food, Too hard to recalculate the percentages, and not every one agrees that guns, ammo, and food are "investments").
                        JT, I thought it was the otherway around for you: 20% PMs and 90% Guns&Food ;).

                        You certainly have nerves of steel to sit on 90% PMs, but then again, who can blame you?

                        Comment


                        • Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

                          Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post


                          7/1/09 .
                          Jim, is it me or you made some upgrades to your spreadsheet? Looks great!

                          Comment


                          • Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

                            Originally posted by jtabeb View Post
                            O think you're "fibbing"
                            No I'm not. But I can see why someone would think that.

                            I was confident that my cash position was 52% or very close to it,
                            but I forgot that I'd sold Abbott Labs Monday morning. That bumped it up.
                            Last edited by Raz; July 02, 2009, 09:36 AM.

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                            • Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

                              Originally posted by LargoWinch View Post

                              You certainly have nerves of steel to sit on 90% PMs
                              What are you talking about? I'm shitting in my pants, You guys holding T-bills and cash THAT takes nerves of steel.:rolleyes:

                              Comment


                              • Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

                                Originally posted by ASH View Post
                                I'm planning to speculate short MSCI emerging markets index -- wagering about 1.6% net worth. The bulk of my assets remain roughly 80:20 PM:cash.
                                That speculative position from May was to go long EEV via a December 25th-dated call. In retrospect, it would have been better to buy puts against a long ETF than calls for a short ETF. Live and learn. In any case, this position has lost about 80% of its value. I'm staying in because this was always a play on a market crash by the end of the calendar year. The concept was to select as volatile a security as I could find, and wait for it to react to the realization that the world's economic problems aren't over. If that happens by the end of the year, I may yet make a profit... not that I'm holding my breath.

                                Today, I opened a larger speculative position against the S&P500. Steveaustin2006 pointed out that the leveraged short ETF SPXU was fairly newly-minted, and I thought it fit the bill to play a market downturn this fall. I entered with about 5% of my net worth. This will probably be the tuition I pay to learn not to futz around with leveraged ETFs anymore.

                                As of today, I am 10% cash, 5% speculation short the market, and 85% precious metals. The shift from my earlier 80/20 allocation between PM and cash is the result of opening the speculative position and a change in metal prices since my last post to this thread.

                                I plan to shift another 5% out of cash and into non-leveraged long-dated emerging markets puts shortly. So, when the market shoots skyward instead of cratering, this will be my opportunity to lose 10% of net worth.

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