HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

[LargoWinch]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Meantime, maybe it's good to buy PM now, then sell and move the proceeds into bonds later?

Raja, that is what I am trying to achieve in the long run with my PMs.

Only problem is that history does not repeat itself...it rhymes.

Will rates ever go in the double-digits again? I find this hard to imagine even in 10 years...

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Raja, that is what I am trying to achieve in the long run with my PMs.

Only problem is that history does not repeat itself...it rhymes.

Will rates ever go in the double-digits again? I find this hard to imagine even in 10 years...

If you can imagine that PM's are the best place to be over the long run, then ask yourself why? Bonds will go down at some point, and yields will go up.

[c1ue]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Jim,

Maybe you are better off investing in a natural gas well in the yard:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/wayof...ing/index.html

Bishop Kenneth Spears always thought gifts from God came from above. He never imagined that the gifts would be hiding under his church in Fort Worth, Texas.

Spears' church received a $32,000 bonus and receives between $3,000 and $10,000 a month in royalty checks. The money is helping pay for a multimillion-dollar expansion and a new sanctuary.

[phirang]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Jim,

Maybe you are better off investing in a natural gas well in the yard:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/wayof...ing/index.html

Wow, it's like a crappy version of Saudi Arabia:p

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Jim,

Maybe you are better off investing in a natural gas well in the yard:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/wayof...ing/index.html

We got 3200bonar for the less than quarter of an acre where our house is. The companies originally sent out letters and a contract which if signed resulted in a bonus for mineral rights of $500. Most people who really could have used $3200 (an offer that took over a year to materialize after the first letter offers arrived) jumped on the $500. I don't know where the mininster is located, but we are yet to see any royalty checks.

That was for me a once in a lifetime windfall.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

8/19/08

Allocations:

23.16% IN -200% ETF's : DXD, SDS, QID, TWM, SKF, SRS

6.28% IN PM's : GTU, CEF, DGP (+200% on gold) and a bit of physical Au Ag.

1.90% in DRR -200% against the Euro

3.78% in Energy : VLO, TSO, FTO AND UNG

19.40% in US hedged equity HSGFX

45.47% in Cash, MMF's

Friday 8/22/08, I added a bit to the six -200% ETF's listed above bringing that allocation to 29.16%

PM's = 6.48%

Currencies = 1.92%

Energy = 3.76%

Equity, hedged =19.45%

Cash = 39.23%

Below is a link to a chart of $SPX and $GOLD.

My focus is on the period from Fall of 2007 to now 8/22/08.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GO...22&a=129594324

Since last Fall, the $SPX has moved in a mirror image to $GOLD.

I don't particularly care why this has happened --there might be any number of explanations depending upon the pundit, but it has.

Currentlly $GOLD and $SPX both are moving up, with the move in the $SPX having begun in mid-July and in $GOLD just in the past few days. This synchronous move may be the beginning of a new coordinated movement, or it is possible it may revert to the two moving opposite one another.

Were the latter to occur: $GOLD is going to continue up and the $SPX down, or this short period of synchrony may end and $GOLD resumes its down trend and $SPX continues its up trend.

My positioning is a bet that the $SPX is going to reverse downward and that $GOLD will continue up for a while. I could lose on both bets, win on both, or split.

[LargoWinch]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

My allocation is as follows (and according to Jim, my counselor, my robotinvestmentadvisor3.1, my mom and my journal-delivery boy; quite risky - so please enjoy at your own risks):

40% Gold
35% Cash @ 3.4% post-tax
12% Platinum
6% Silver
4% Agriculture (Wheat/Corn/Rice) 2x leverage (effective 8%)
2% Natural Gas 2x leverage (effective 4%)
1% Palladium

Note: No real estate exposure (renter) and no debt.

Will reduce in the next few months my PMs to around 40-50% of my portfolio from almost 60% now; as kindly suggested by Jim in another post.

However, do not see good bets besides energy, PMs and cash for the foreseable future; so my sell of PMs discussed above to go to cash.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

On 9/2/09, I closed a position in DGP for 0.53% loss.

Today, closed -200% positions in DXD SDS QID TWM SRS SKF AND DRR.

The DRR was opened 7/17 and netted 14.12%

The other six positions were opened 8/14 and fractionally added to on 8/22, and closed for a gain of 15.9%

Current allocation: 74.5% cash
PM's: GTU, CEF, and a bit of physical 3.97%
Energy: FTO, VLO, TSO, UNG 3.62%
Hedged equity: HSGFX 18.95%

YTD GAIN: 13.88%
1 YR GAIN: 18.12%
2YR CMPD: 13.07%
3YR CMPD: 11.63%
FROM 2000 HIGH CMPD: -.028% which is 5.28% drawn down still after 8 3/4 years.

[LargoWinch]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

On 9/2/09, I closed a position in DGP for 0.53% loss.

Today, closed -200% positions in DXD SDS QID TWM SRS SKF AND DRR.

The DRR was opened 7/17 and netted 14.12%

The other six positions were opened 8/14 and fractionally added to on 8/22, and closed for a gain of 15.9%

Current allocation: 74.5% cash
PM's: GTU, CEF, and a bit of physical 3.97%
Energy: FTO, VLO, TSO, UNG 3.62%
Hedged equity: HSGFX 18.95%

YTD GAIN: 13.88%
1 YR GAIN: 18.12%
2YR CMPD: 13.07%
3YR CMPD: 11.63%
FROM 2000 HIGH CMPD: -.028% which is 5.28% drawn down still after 8 3/4 years.

Jim, that is quite an impressive record for a year like this. You are beating 99% of fund managers on the street.

However: 74.5% cash!? What is the plan for that?

More importantly, don't you wish more would post their allocation? Personally, I think this tread is the best one on iTulip, especially if used in a constructive fashion (like when you did when you reviewed my allocation).

BTW: I am now 53% PMs and 47% Cash (@3.4% and 4% no tax). Full update to follow.

- L.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Jim, that is quite an impressive record for a year like this. You are beating 99% of fund managers on the street.

However: 74.5% cash!? What is the plan for that?

More importantly, don't you wish more would post their allocation? Personally, I think this tread is the best one on iTulip, especially if used in a constructive fashion (like when you did when you reviewed my allocation).

BTW: I am now 53% PMs and 47% Cash (@3.4% and 4% no tax). Full update to follow.

- L.

I'm mostly out of the market because the volatility is wearing or has worn me out.

I think the equity markets are either going to turn up here in the next few weeks, or they may continue on down for a bit more from where we are and then turn up--that is my opinion. That about covers it except for there being possibly being some period of sideways movement.

There are a helluva lot of things all over the world that are cheaper than they have been for several years, and the dilemma is whether they will get cheaper.

Below is an interesting table I came upon today.

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/
Global Equity Market Declines

There's no doubt about it -- it's bad everywhere:

[ASH]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Personally, I think this tread is the best one on iTulip, especially if used in a constructive fashion (like when you did when you reviewed my allocation).

Disclaimer: I am not a sophisticated investor, and do not hold myself up as any kind of example to emulate. I provide the following narrative for the general curiosity of the voyeuristic, and perhaps to learn something from those more experienced. It is probably most interesting as a study in the ad hoc thinking of a noob investor, and perhaps a measure of the cost/benefit of being a too-early bear.

I got my first job out of school in February 2004, which coincides with the beginning of my investment career. I did the bare minimum to educate myself: I read Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor because value investing was conceptually appealing to me. However, in reading that book, it became apparent to me that I wasn't going to be able to devote the time and energy required to properly analyze individual securities, so instead I settled upon appraising mutual funds based upon simple measures of value like the PE ratio, expense ratio, etc. All junior league stuff. My initial plan was to overlay the general value investing philosophy on top of some sector- and region-specific strategies for which I liked the "big picture", and I resolved to avoid market timing.

Fast-forward to today: I'm an inveterate market-timer with most of my assets in precious metals. How did this happen? Once I started investing I became interested in the macro picture, and the more I learned, the more worried I became. By temperament, I am incapable of ignoring my hunches, and I feel compelled to act based upon imperfect information. Thus, once I became convinced that large-scale problems were on the horizon (a view which iTulip played a role in forming) I decided I'd rather suffer the opportunity cost of selling out of the market too early than regret my own inaction in such case that I was right. Here's how that played out:

Initially, in 2004, I had my money spread across energy, and both foreign and domestic value funds. In March 2006 I gave up on the broader US market (about 1.5 years too early), and sold out of my domestic value fund, but stayed in targeted domestic energy; I opened a position in an insurance industry fund. By October/November 2006, I was really worried about the US (about 11 months early), so I sold out of the domestic energy and insurance stocks; I increased my foreign holdings in both stocks and bonds. In August 2007, after the initial drop in the market following the start of the subprime mortgage crisis, I decided that the problems were going to be world-wide, so I liquidated my international stock, leaving only international bonds; I started buying precious metals. In January 2008, I decided that even foreign bonds might not be safe, so I sold everything. I’ve been in precious metals ever since.

In the final analysis, I should have held onto the energy funds much longer. However, that is the only category in which I’ve lost ground on net, and the scale of the losses was small. My timing on the internationals wasn’t bad. As far as the domestic stock goes, I lost the opportunity to make major gains in the run-up to 14,000 (DJIA) but I have also avoided taking fairly healthy losses. Here's what happened to the specific funds I held since the time I sold out of those positions:

Domestic Value

left VIVAX in 03/2006 at 23.52; now 20.01 (-15%)

Domestic Energy and Insurance

left FSPCX in 10/2006 at 72.15; now 38.75 (-46%)
left FSENX in 11/2006 at 47.92; now 48.44 (+1%)
left VGENX in 11/2006 at 62.86; now 64.13 (+2%)

International Stock

left FNORX 8/2007 at 42.65; now 28.84 (-32%)
left FICDX 8/2007 at 54.33; now 50.75 (-6%)
left VTRIX 8/2007 at 40.91; now 30.11 (-26%)
left VGTSX 8/2007 at 18.02; now 13.80 (-23%)

International Bonds

left BEGBX 1/2008 at 14.90; now 14.16 (-5%)

I don’t know how meaningful this spot-check is, after such a weird couple of weeks. If the losses aren’t sustained, then it means nothing. Also, I should point out that if precious metals tank and stay down, I won’t come out on top, either (first bought into CEF at $10 but I have accumulated when it was as high as $13.60; at the close 9/17 it was $10.88… but headed upward).

Elsewhere I wrote about some puts I had bought against the DJIA; I haven't mentioned that here because that was "play money" rather than the core of my investments.

As for the future... I'm staying in PMs until I see some sign that ka-poom, or something like it, isn't on the menu.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Disclaimer: I am not a sophisticated investor, and do not hold myself up as any kind of example to emulate. I provide the following narrative for the general curiosity of the voyeuristic, and perhaps to learn something from those more experienced. It is probably most interesting as a study in the ad hoc thinking of a noob investor, and perhaps a measure of the cost/benefit of being a too-early bear.

I got my first job out of school in February 2004, which coincides with the beginning of my investment career. I did the bare minimum to educate myself: I read Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor because value investing was conceptually appealing to me. However, in reading that book, it became apparent to me that I wasn't going to be able to devote the time and energy required to properly analyze individual securities, so instead I settled upon appraising mutual funds based upon simple measures of value like the PE ratio, expense ratio, etc. All junior league stuff. My initial plan was to overlay the general value investing philosophy on top of some sector- and region-specific strategies for which I liked the "big picture", and I resolved to avoid market timing.

Fast-forward to today: I'm an inveterate market-timer with most of my assets in precious metals. How did this happen? Once I started investing I became interested in the macro picture, and the more I learned, the more worried I became. By temperament, I am incapable of ignoring my hunches, and I feel compelled to act based upon imperfect information. Thus, once I became convinced that large-scale problems were on the horizon (a view which iTulip played a role in forming) I decided I'd rather suffer the opportunity cost of selling out of the market too early than regret my own inaction in such case that I was right. Here's how that played out:

Initially, in 2004, I had my money spread across energy, and both foreign and domestic value funds. In March 2006 I gave up on the broader US market (about 1.5 years too early), and sold out of my domestic value fund, but stayed in targeted domestic energy; I opened a position in an insurance industry fund. By October/November 2006, I was really worried about the US (about 11 months early), so I sold out of the domestic energy and insurance stocks; I increased my foreign holdings in both stocks and bonds. In August 2007, after the initial drop in the market following the start of the subprime mortgage crisis, I decided that the problems were going to be world-wide, so I liquidated my international stock, leaving only international bonds; I started buying precious metals. In January 2008, I decided that even foreign bonds might not be safe, so I sold everything. I’ve been in precious metals ever since.

In the final analysis, I should have held onto the energy funds much longer. However, that is the only category in which I’ve lost ground on net, and the scale of the losses was small. My timing on the internationals wasn’t bad. As far as the domestic stock goes, I lost the opportunity to make major gains in the run-up to 14,000 (DJIA) but I have also avoided taking fairly healthy losses. Here's what happened to the specific funds I held since the time I sold out of those positions:

Domestic Value

left VIVAX in 03/2006 at 23.52; now 20.01 (-15%)

Domestic Energy and Insurance

left FSPCX in 10/2006 at 72.15; now 38.75 (-46%)
left FSENX in 11/2006 at 47.92; now 48.44 (+1%)
left VGENX in 11/2006 at 62.86; now 64.13 (+2%)

International Stock

left FNORX 8/2007 at 42.65; now 28.84 (-32%)
left FICDX 8/2007 at 54.33; now 50.75 (-6%)
left VTRIX 8/2007 at 40.91; now 30.11 (-26%)
left VGTSX 8/2007 at 18.02; now 13.80 (-23%)

International Bonds

left BEGBX 1/2008 at 14.90; now 14.16 (-5%)

I don’t know how meaningful this spot-check is, after such a weird couple of weeks. If the losses aren’t sustained, then it means nothing. Also, I should point out that if precious metals tank and stay down, I won’t come out on top, either (first bought into CEF at $10 but I have accumulated when it was as high as $13.60; at the close 9/17 it was $10.88… but headed upward).

Elsewhere I wrote about some puts I had bought against the DJIA; I haven't mentioned that here because that was "play money" rather than the core of my investments.

As for the future... I'm staying in PMs until I see some sign that ka-poom, or something like it, isn't on the menu.

Rather than telling you, ASH, I'll suggest that trying to make money in the markets is hard; it is never easy unless one lucks into something.

If you care to respond, how are you allocated in asset classes with regard to percentages?

This isn't a "check-up" on you, but without allocation information, I don't think one conveys how one is really thinking.

[LargoWinch]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Disclaimer: I am not a sophisticated investor, and do not hold myself up as any kind of example to emulate. I provide the following narrative for the general curiosity of the voyeuristic, and perhaps to learn something from those more experienced. It is probably most interesting as a study in the ad hoc thinking of a noob investor, and perhaps a measure of the cost/benefit of being a too-early bear.

I got my first job out of school in February 2004, which coincides with the beginning of my investment career. I did the bare minimum to educate myself: I read Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor because value investing was conceptually appealing to me. However, in reading that book, it became apparent to me that I wasn't going to be able to devote the time and energy required to properly analyze individual securities, so instead I settled upon appraising mutual funds based upon simple measures of value like the PE ratio, expense ratio, etc. All junior league stuff. My initial plan was to overlay the general value investing philosophy on top of some sector- and region-specific strategies for which I liked the "big picture", and I resolved to avoid market timing.

Fast-forward to today: I'm an inveterate market-timer with most of my assets in precious metals. How did this happen? Once I started investing I became interested in the macro picture, and the more I learned, the more worried I became. By temperament, I am incapable of ignoring my hunches, and I feel compelled to act based upon imperfect information. Thus, once I became convinced that large-scale problems were on the horizon (a view which iTulip played a role in forming) I decided I'd rather suffer the opportunity cost of selling out of the market too early than regret my own inaction in such case that I was right. Here's how that played out:

Initially, in 2004, I had my money spread across energy, and both foreign and domestic value funds. In March 2006 I gave up on the broader US market (about 1.5 years too early), and sold out of my domestic value fund, but stayed in targeted domestic energy; I opened a position in an insurance industry fund. By October/November 2006, I was really worried about the US (about 11 months early), so I sold out of the domestic energy and insurance stocks; I increased my foreign holdings in both stocks and bonds. In August 2007, after the initial drop in the market following the start of the subprime mortgage crisis, I decided that the problems were going to be world-wide, so I liquidated my international stock, leaving only international bonds; I started buying precious metals. In January 2008, I decided that even foreign bonds might not be safe, so I sold everything. I’ve been in precious metals ever since.

In the final analysis, I should have held onto the energy funds much longer. However, that is the only category in which I’ve lost ground on net, and the scale of the losses was small. My timing on the internationals wasn’t bad. As far as the domestic stock goes, I lost the opportunity to make major gains in the run-up to 14,000 (DJIA) but I have also avoided taking fairly healthy losses. Here's what happened to the specific funds I held since the time I sold out of those positions:

Domestic Value

left VIVAX in 03/2006 at 23.52; now 20.01 (-15%)

Domestic Energy and Insurance

left FSPCX in 10/2006 at 72.15; now 38.75 (-46%)
left FSENX in 11/2006 at 47.92; now 48.44 (+1%)
left VGENX in 11/2006 at 62.86; now 64.13 (+2%)

International Stock

left FNORX 8/2007 at 42.65; now 28.84 (-32%)
left FICDX 8/2007 at 54.33; now 50.75 (-6%)
left VTRIX 8/2007 at 40.91; now 30.11 (-26%)
left VGTSX 8/2007 at 18.02; now 13.80 (-23%)

International Bonds

left BEGBX 1/2008 at 14.90; now 14.16 (-5%)

I don’t know how meaningful this spot-check is, after such a weird couple of weeks. If the losses aren’t sustained, then it means nothing. Also, I should point out that if precious metals tank and stay down, I won’t come out on top, either (first bought into CEF at $10 but I have accumulated when it was as high as $13.60; at the close 9/17 it was $10.88… but headed upward).

Elsewhere I wrote about some puts I had bought against the DJIA; I haven't mentioned that here because that was "play money" rather than the core of my investments.

As for the future... I'm staying in PMs until I see some sign that ka-poom, or something like it, isn't on the menu.

ASH, it is so great to see you post on this thread. I was under the impression that military-related hardware would do more to attract you ;)

Anyway, I fail to understand what is your situation now? Where is you wealth allocated? A snaptshot or pie-chart (no $ amount) would be great.

The feedback may saves you so $$$ who knows?

-L.

As I told Jim, my allocation is 53-47 in PM and cash. In the last 24 hours; it has been good to be me... (cash is for me in $CAD of course, since I live in Toronto, ON, Canada)

[ASH]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Rather than telling you, ASH, I'll suggest that trying to make money in the markets is hard; it is never easy unless one lucks into something.

If you care to respond, how are you allocated in asset classes with regard to percentages?

This isn't a "check-up" on you, but without allocation information, I don't think one conveys how one is really thinking.

Thanks, Jim. (My name is Andrew, by the way -- ASH are my initials.) I value your comments.

My allocation would make any sane person blanche. I said in the text that "I had been in precious metals ever since" and I almost meant it!

Here's my allocation as a fraction of assets, but not including debt:

cash (US) = 10%
cash (Swiss Francs) = 11%
precious metals = 79%

The only debt I have is a student loan at 3.125% fixed, which is under 5% of the value of my assets.

[ASH]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

ASH, it is so great to see you post on this thread. I was under the impression that military-related hardware would do more to attract you ;)

Well, you know... one hesitates to make a fool of themselves, and I am very conscious of my noob-dom in this arena.

Anyway, I fail to understand what is your situation now? Where is you wealth allocated? A snaptshot or pie-chart (no $ amount) would be great.

The feedback may saves you so $$$ who knows?

-L.

As I told Jim, my allocation is 53-47 in PM and cash. In the last 24 hours; it has been good to be me... (cash is for me in $CAD of course, since I live in Toronto, ON, Canada)

Yes, the feedback may very well save my neck. As it happens, my allocation is somewhat similar to yours, but less balanced: 80/20 PMs and cash.