HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

[Guest]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Lukester ... I am relatively sure you are incapable of seeing it for yourself just as I am. ... Just as I sold them, I can rebuy them when I decide it is time again to put my money at risk.

Jim - It's not 'fortune telling' or 'hocus pocus' - it's merely not riding a trend past 75% of it's already accomplished trajectory.

Viz: People piling into gold in February, after gold was already up 40% over the previous 12 months. Why do that?

Viz: People bailing out of stocks after the broad indexes were down 20% (big move in the SPX for that time span) in a mere six months. Why do that?

Piling into or out of a trend after it's completed 75% of it's move? That's precisely how the slimeball trading funds make their lazy-ass profits, reliably, year after year, off us poor small investors. Why let them?

Which of these two indexes should we be piling into, and which should we be lightening up on, at least in contrarian terms, for the next six months? Why does it need to be all complicated, when the best aspects of "contrarianism" can be this simple?

SPX - VERSUS - GLD - SPOT_THE_COUNTER_TREND_PLAY.png

[Thailandnotes]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

How do you know something has made "75 % of its move?" How do you know that 75 % will not turn out to be 30?

[Guest]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

How do you know something has made "75 % of its move?" How do you know that 75 % will not turn out to be 30?

Thailandnotes -

You wait until you see a trend chart for two inversly correlated assets that shows a long progression in one direction, and then what looks like a clear break in trend. Just like the above chart. That may not be your trigger to act, but then at least you watch the further development of those trends closely. I can't abide sitting scrunched up watching trend charts all the time, but Jim seems to have infinite patience for it. Some people do.

Further to the above, it helps to search for and spend money on the best short term tactical trader services you can locate. Better if its' two or three of the very best you can locate. If you are playing around with a half a million dollars or even just 100K, that's awfully cheap cost to buy a 'provisional compass' to complement your own conclusions, no? Jim reads Richard Russell - well, I think even Richard Russell is talking about a clear potential for a strong rally in the principal indexes at this time? Why ignore that and go short instead precisely when a veteran like Richard Russell is getting suspicious of the continuance of a bear market?

In the above 'home made methodology', you then you incorporate and cross reference all the input from the best short term market tacticians you could find, with the simple fact that two trends, gold in one direction and SPX in the other direction, have been trending that way already for a good long while - they would look in a chart just like these two assets classes, which are drawing inversely to each other, and both seem to have made at least 'noticeable' trend changes in the past few weeks. Put it all in the blender, set the blender on the 'high' setting, and whip it all up into a nice cafe-latte.

Of course, nothing is 'assured', but such an absolute observation is useless in the markets because it's merely academic.

Even if you conclude you can know nothing about anything in the markets as a certainty, you do know it's perfectly common-sense to spot when you are already well along in a trend. If you are a prospective buyer, you resist the temptation to buy - and if you are a prospective seller, you resist the temptation to sell - precisely when you can notice that you are well along in a trend. Why? Because your move would be late, no?

Does this sound like plain common sense or not?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Thailandnotes -

You wait until you see a trend chart for two inversly correlated assets that shows a long progression in one direction, and then what looks like a clear break in trend. Just like the above chart. That may not be your trigger to act, but then at least you watch the further development of those trends closely. I can't abide sitting scrunched up watching trend charts all the time, but Jim seems to have infinite patience for it. Some people do.

Further to the above, it helps to search for and spend money on the best short term tactical trader services you can locate. Better if its' two or three of the very best you can locate. If you are playing around with a half a million dollars or even just 100K, that's awfully cheap cost to buy a 'provisional compass' to complement your own conclusions, no? Jim reads Richard Russell - well, I think even Richard Russell is talking about a clear potential for a strong rally in the principal indexes at this time? Why ignore that and go short instead precisely when a veteran like Richard Russell is getting suspicious of the continuance of a bear market?

In the above 'home made methodology', you then you incorporate and cross reference all the input from the best short term market tacticians you could find, with the simple fact that two trends, gold in one direction and SPX in the other direction, have been trending that way already for a good long while - they would look in a chart just like these two assets classes, which are drawing inversely to each other, and both seem to have made at least 'noticeable' trend changes in the past few weeks. Put it all in the blender, set the blender on the 'high' setting, and whip it all up into a nice cafe-latte.

Of course, nothing is 'assured', but such an absolute observation is useless in the markets because it's merely academic.

Even if you conclude you can know nothing about anything in the markets as a certainty, you do know it's perfectly common-sense to spot when you are already well along in a trend. If you are a prospective buyer, you resist the temptation to buy - and if you are a prospective seller, you resist the temptation to sell - precisely when you can notice that you are well along in a trend. Why? Because your move would be late, no?

Does this sound like plain common sense or not?

Lukester, that is a good answer, and for my likes--which I don't expect to mean diddly-squat to you, you only wrote and made us read one useless sentence. Perhaps you are getting better as I regard things--this comment too is rather useless, sorry readers.

Thailandnotes' question was very pertinent, and I don't think you or anyone can answer it, but you put up your answer and that is commendable.

You would have me, us believe making these decisions aren't difficult. My experience is that they are all difficult decisions as to when to buy and sell. You should retire a very wealthy man, or why even work now if this stuff is easy?

I have noted a lot of Bullish Information that is of course bullish since 3/10/08 lows. Those guys may be correct, and then there is EJ and iTulip which generally exudes bearishness. Incidentally, I quit subscibing to Russell a couple of months ago.

For anyone else and your convenience I wish I could put a chart in here, but you'll have to get along with a link--which I hope you'll look at. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SP...96&a=127347583

This is of the SPX and of pertinence I think is the range since 1/22/08 bounded above by 1386-1396, and below by 1257-1270. It would go along with your apparent orientation for a rally and a lot or all of the posts I referenced above if the SPX can get above 1400. If there is a retest of the lows that holds, then that does not wipe out such a rally scenario. However, if the lows are broken, then I'm going to give EJ's scenario preference here. If the upper bounds are broken, I'll probably play it to the upside, depending upon how breadth and volume data look to me.

I wish I had a better chart and reference but this one gets the point over of a "bear market" call or as it is labeled by Carl Swenlin a "long-term sell signal." 17 week EMA (exponential moving average) drops beneath 43 week EMA. That is depicted in the second panel here and here (in this second instance he is using 50 and 200 day EMA crossovers--50 day EMA crosses from above to beneath 200 day EMA. In the second panel you can see when these crossovers occur then tend not to reverse quickly). The time that the present equity markets' declines have gone on since July or October depending upon exact index is not long. It may be different this time, I don't know.

Now to your GLD reference. I'm looking at this chart. If anyone looks at the drop from 72 to 55.05 from May to June in 2006, and bought by chance at that low, it was until October when price went to 55.55 before an RSI buy signal was generated which it generally was in October 2006. That was not a bad entry point but still required a lot of patience before exceeding May 2006 peak which happened around September 2007. The current pullback in GLD has been short lived and what has happened so far may be all that will happen, that is, it will just go up and up from here, but I am not buying into it yet. I sold my GLD, SLV, and GDX on 3/4/08, and unless they continue up from where they are not without more correction and get back to where I sold them, and I like the charts I will buy them back--right now I would be down an additional 3.8K were I still holding those three postions.

If I sold whatever at precisely the wrong times--that note above is what started this discourse, time will bear that out, and if you didn't, and you are correct time will bear that out. It must play out, we both have apparently made bets on the future. I always do so with some trepidation as seldom do I see anything in investing as a "no-brainer."

Thank you, Lukester, for your comments.

[renewable]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I own my home, mostly, and a percentage of an office building. I just don't count them when I am thinking in terms of liquid investable monies.

I own my own home too, just because it's illiquid is doesn't cease to be my biggest investment. Maybe because it is so illiquid it is even more important to keep an eye on it's relative performance vs. it's utility (living in it!).

Perhaps not including property in your portfolio makes it even more illiquid, by reinforcing the viewpoint that it is not a tradeable investment?

It might also be useful for you to keep tabs on your property investment performance vs. other investments; as Finster points out relative performance is more useful than a single monetary measure.

Without property included, perhaps it could be argued that this thread is more 'one iTuliper's liquid investments' rather than 'how one iTuliper is invested?'

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

I own my own home too, just because it's illiquid is doesn't cease to be my biggest investment. Maybe because it is so illiquid it is even more important to keep an eye on it's relative performance vs. it's utility (living in it!).

Perhaps not including property in your portfolio makes it even more illiquid, by reinforcing the viewpoint that it is not a tradeable investment?

It might also be useful for you to keep tabs on your property investment performance vs. other investments; as Finster points out relative performance is more useful than a single monetary measure.

Without property included, perhaps it could be argued that this thread is more 'one iTuliper's liquid investments' rather than 'how one iTuliper is invested?'

My house value is going to go down and up (I guess someday). We need a place to live, and because I despise moving, I'm not moving for considerations of making a gain or saving a loss on our house value, period. I include my house value in my net worth, and I estimate my house value as being the amount of principal I have paid on it. For the 5% of building, it too is net worth, but estimated from 5-10 years ago.

In starting this thread, I hoped it would encourage others to start their thread and discuss their investments, but no way did that happen. The name isn't important, and perhaps what I post isn't either.

I still would like some feedback, I guess I raised that point here--don't have time to look now.

Why are people invested in whatever it is they own with regard to stocks, bond, mutual funds, gold, etc.? I don't ask that to get into anybody else's business, I just wonder what is guiding their decisions: what they read somewhere, hear on TV or from friends, newsletters, iTulip, books whatever, why do we buy what we buy?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Weekending 4/18/08

Last week was not a good week for me. I took a 9.34% loss on ~$227K positions divided between QID, TWM, DXD, SDS, SKF, & SRS and in the last six market days a loss of 23.86% on DCR.

My current positions are:

4/18/08	POSITION	% INVESTD	NOW GAIN	% GAIN	ALLOCATION
GOLD & SILVER	CEF	0.83%	3,106	51.43%
-200% GOLD ETN	DZZ	0.99%	-25	-0.23%
GOLD	GTU	1.28%	4,570	47.56%	3.10%	PM'S
COMM	DBC	1.72%	50	0.26%
COMM	GSG	1.77%	583	3.07%	3.50%	COMMODTIES
OIL	USO	1.78%	980	5.24%
NATURAL GAS	UNG	1.77%	835	4.45%	3.56%	ENERGY
UP US $ X2	RYSBX	1.14%	127	1.02%		STRONG DOLLAR
YIELD ON 30YR-BOND	RRPIX	7.18%	-675	-0.84%		RISING 30-YR TREAS. RATE
HEDGED EQUITY	HSGFX	18.57%	2,643	1.31%	26.90%	HSGFX HEDGED EQUITY MUTUAL FD
	% INVESTED	37.05%	11)">12,193	2.57%
	BOLD RED SYMBOLS = MOVE -200% OF RESPECTIVE INDICES

Perhaps no one but me is getting any benefit out of this thread, but for me it has made me look more closely at what I am doing. I don't recall if I ever emphasized that NO ONE should take what I am doing as a guide to what they should be doing.

This year I have made ~128 trades (I write approximately because I did not go back and check my initial tabulation). That has cost me ~$2304 on ~$1,395,000 in capital invested or 0.165% or .165 of a cent for every dollar put into and taken out of positions. To me the costs of my trading are negligible, besides where does one actually obtain anything for nothing these days.

There have been 75 trading days this year during which I have gained $794/day, or annualized 21.69%. For the 109 calendar days of the year that comes out to $546/day or 14.92% annualized.

For 2007 my gain was 10.77%; this year to date it is 5.24% for my total portfolios.

My one year gain is 11.99%, two years 11.24% compounded, three years 12.22% compounded, and since 12/31/1999 -0.89%.

My biggest drawndown this year is -2.46%, and for 2007 it was ~ -4%.

From an ETF screen I have begun running, through 4/18/08 below are the 15 top performing ETF's since the last general equity market lows on 3/10/08. The listed ETF's may not have hit their most recent lows that day. The gains as calculated by the program are based on closing prices and range from 35.69% for URE to 22.29% for UVT. I believe these to be correct, but surely do not guarantee it. Some of these ETF's are what I consider to be very thinly traded.

Home building, real estate: URE XHB SAW ITB

Energy: QLCN OIH DIG GEX

General equity: UVT RMM UKK QLD

Financial: UYG

Agricultural: MOO

Basic materials: UYM

[friendly_jacek]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Jim,
sorry to hear about your losses on DCR. I was going to advise you to hold on to it as oil should be going down (short term that is, reversion to mean). Then I checked it against DUG (that many daytraders use to short oil) and WTF, this DCR is a serious loosing money proposition and sounds like a scam. Then I read this discussion that confirmed this being a rip off: http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/St...=2&frt=2&off=1

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Jim,
sorry to hear about your losses on DCR. I was going to advise you to hold on to it as oil should be going down (short term that is, reversion to mean). Then I checked it against DUG (that many daytraders use to short oil) and WTF, this DCR is a serious loosing money proposition and sounds like a scam. Then I read this discussion that confirmed this being a rip off: http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/St...=2&frt=2&off=1

I put up my losses not to seek commiseration, for which I do thank you, but rather to share some of the hardships one investor experiences from time to time.

jacek, I don't know that you look at charts, but last time I looked, which was yesterday, the top performing etf's almost all have "energy" in their names, the others would you believe "homebuilders," and the energy ones seem to my interpretation to suggest prices can go higher. Certainly I do not know that they will right now, but it looks conducive to that, though who knows they may all turn to shit tomorrow. Regarding DCR, that was nearly my exact sentiment "WTF"!! Thanks for the link, I'll read it later this evening.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Broadly, inverse ETF'S 18.8% via DXD SDS QID TWM SRS SKF

AG COMMODITIES: 2.15% via DBA, RJA

Physical PM: 2.21% 24:1 gold:silver

PM's 14.95% via CEF, GTU, GLD, SLV, RJZ (2/3 BASE, 1/3 PRECIOUS)

FOREIGN CURRENCY: 17.29% via FXY, FXF, CNY, MEAFX

Hedged US Equity: 18.68% via HSGFX

Cash: USD 25.9%

Precisely at 11:32 Central Time 6/19/08

Above was posted at link in response to krakknisse's asking, because kk is not a spook, I answered.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

In another thread, metalman asks:

grape, jim, & tulipen,

in this thread from jan 08 you're stock bulls... didn't buy into the itulip debt deflation bear market scenario. six months into the year, what are your thoughts?

Because of my intrepretation of things: the nearness of the DJI to again testing its lows of Jan and Mar yesterday (FRI. 6/20/08) and the lesser corrections in the SPX, NDX, and RUT, late yesterday I closed about 60% of my -200% inverse positions which included the entire SKF ETF financials. That leaves me with about 7.75% in inverse funds compared to 18.8% in the above note from 6/19/08 with them being about 1.5% each between DXD, SRS, QIDS, TWM, and SRS.

Otherwise my basic allocations are as above.

Yesterday, my portfolio appreciation was at its highest since having been close to a wipe out in 10/2002; however, I have only made 4.5K since 3/10 which was also a portfolio high. My greatest drawdown since 3/10 was 2.84% on 6/5/08.

In a while I'll post a note in the bullish thread by Mike Burk, which suggests that we may be about to see some sort of a bottom in here--whether a temporary one or a significant one would remain to be seen.

I do not at all dismiss all the bearish arguments that exist now and for some while, and if I had to make a longer term bet it would still be to the downside, but I don't have to make such a bet.

IF early next week we were to get a big intraday drop early in a day and then start what might appear to be a big bounce back to higher territory, then I think now I would close out my inverse positions and open +200 long positions.

[metalman]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

In another thread, metalman asks:


Because of my intrepretation of things: the nearness of the DJI to again testing its lows of Jan and Mar yesterday (FRI. 6/20/08) and the lesser corrections in the SPX, NDX, and RUT, late yesterday I closed about 60% of my -200% inverse positions which included the entire SKF ETF financials. That leaves me with about 7.75% in inverse funds compared to 18.8% in the above note from 6/19/08 with them being about 1.5% each between DXD, SRS, QIDS, TWM, and SRS.

Otherwise my basic allocations are as above.

Yesterday, my portfolio appreciation was at its highest since having been close to a wipe out in 10/2002; however, I have only made 4.5K since 3/10 which was also a portfolio high. My greatest drawdown since 3/10 was 2.84% on 6/5/08.

In a while I'll post a note in the bullish thread by Mike Burk, which suggests that we may be about to see some sort of a bottom in here--whether a temporary one or a significant one would remain to be seen.

I do not at all dismiss all the bearish arguments that exist now and for some while, and if I had to make a longer term bet it would still be to the downside, but I don't have to make such a bet.

IF early next week we were to get a big intraday drop early in a day and then start what might appear to be a big bounce back to higher territory, then I think now I would close out my inverse positions and open +200 long positions.

thx. a lot more than my question deserved... you r on my ass in some ways, my man. and i'm keen to hear from the others... i want to know is... the ituip dec. 2007 forecast was against the grain. you guy were with russell and others via of an up 2008 market. now 6 mo. into it, does the market go where they predicted? just wondering how the bull position feels now? you may still be right.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

thx. a lot more than my question deserved... you r on my ass in some ways, my man. and i'm keen to hear from the others... i want to know is... the ituip dec. 2007 forecast was against the grain. you guy were with russell and others via of an up 2008 market. now 6 mo. into it, does the market go where they predicted? just wondering how the bull position feels now? you may still be right.

metalman,

I'd have to look back to see when my subscription with Russell expired, but I would not characterize whatever decisions I make as being determined by any particular guru--but perhaps I should do just that.

One thing I maintain is that I cannot see tomorrow, it is all a guess and maybe some people's prognostications for longer terms will turn out to be on the money, but it is the ups and downs between Monday and the long term with which I attempt to contend. It is just what most interests me.

I don't argue that trading is the best way to make money, but for the last several years it seems to have been working for me--and I cannot and will not discount pure luck.

I think everybody with a lick of sense makes some sort of timing decisions--the exception would be those who only buy and hold til they die.

Sy Harding presents an opinion about timing here and that is not a terrible article to at least peruse.

So Wall Street obviously knows when to sell, knows the market can be timed, but won't ever tell you when to sell. That's a decision you have to make on your own.

The market can be timed, and certainly not only by Wall Street institutions, mutual funds, hedge funds, and other so-called 'smart money'.

[zenith191]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

Very few mention any real estate in portfolios - Is this because no real estate is owned, or it isn't regarded as an investment?

Yes I see alot of paper assets in people's portfolios here. Hardly any real estate or business assets.

To contrast I am invested:

USD cash accounts 20%
Short US stock markets 10%
Foreign currencies 5%
Gold bullion 5%
Residential real estate 60% (all less than 80% LTV and with positive cashflow)

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED?

8/19/08

Allocations:

23.16% IN -200% ETF's : DXD, SDS, QID, TWM, SKF, SRS

6.28% IN PM's : GTU, CEF, DGP (+200% on gold) and a bit of physical Au Ag.

1.90% in DRR -200% against the Euro

3.78% in Energy : VLO, TSO, FTO AND UNG

19.40% in US hedged equity HSGFX

45.47% in Cash, MMF's