Top 20 companys in the World to invest in?

[javaljav]

Re: Top 20 companys in the World to invest in?

I agree with your analysis on Google's moats. Moreover you never even broached the Google culture to aggressively go after new markets. Google has been successful in getting CA, NV & FL pass laws to allow for self-driven cars to enter the system. If Google could manage to pull this one off it will be bigger than Search Engines. Imagine giving an average suburban dweller 2 extra hours a day. What if you're charged by the mile auto-chauffeured? It will change everything! It will be an addiction for life. Someone said that these systems are going to be so much more efficient in avoiding accidents that in order to get a human license you'll have to prove that you deserve it.

There's Voice search, voice signature, natural language processing - to replace overseas BPO & CSR
Youtube as the next {Netflix, Cable TV, PPV} rolled into one
Google Wallet
...

I have talked to someone in Google and he said, "As long as Larry Page is in control, the culture will thrive. Larry is fearless to explore new areas. Failures never get frowned on - rather you get encouraged to try crazy things. If you sense something is not going to work , you are encouraged to 'fail-fast' ". This 'fail-fast' technique is being copied by many new startups.

As for me investing in Google - as always from the IPO day I have thought Google is expensive and chose the sidelines
Maybe someday I'll change and bite??

$500 under right macro environment may kindle my interest

[kduffey]

Re: Top 20 companys in the World to invest in?

Is the paid inclusion a long-term trend where Google will continue to charge for actual listings for more areas of search?

I guess you could just say Google will monetize more and more of the search results until they feel they hit a wall where web users start going elsewhere for search. Will there be an "elsewhere" in the next 5-10 years?

[seobook]

Re: Top 20 companys in the World to invest in?

in terms of search, most users are genuinely ignorant of what is an ad vs what is not an ad.

Google indicated as much (though obviously in other words) in a survey they did in Germany & last year we did similar surveys in the United States that came to the same conclusions. Consumer Reports WebWatch highlighted this stuff about a decade ago too.
http://www.consumerwebwatch.org/view...d=10679&at=509
http://www.consumerwebwatch.org/dyna...se-oracles.cfm
http://www.consumerwebwatch.org/dyna...s-abstract.cfm
http://www.consumerwebwatch.org/dyna...disclosure.cfm

And yes paid inclusion is only going to keep increasing over time. They already offer it in ecommerce/product search, flight search, hotel search, credit card search, search for CD rates & similar, insurance (in the UK).

I am not convinced that there will be an "elsewhere" across the board. In some cases people might choose to start their searches directly on Amazon.com's app or Yelp's app or similar for certain types of queries, but one of the reasons it is hard to replace web search is that listing a variety of options allows search engines to get away with arbitraging existing brands by forcing them to buy their own brand to try to protect the space. I imagine that a voice assistant that gave you only 1 result rather than a collection of them could bump into some legal issues if they were engaged in some forms of trademark monetization that current search engines are able to get away with.

Some people also believe that mobile replaces desktop generally, but personally I don't see truth in that either. I think it is more about incremental distribution. And while some classes of search might partially move to other applications & such, Google can still dial up their ad rates and such in many markets. And if US living standards continue to decline relatively against their huge advantage over most of the world, it is worth mentioning that something like 80% of Google's search volume is outside the US & they get nearly 50% of their ad revenue from within the US (US+UK is like 60% of their ad revenues & around 25% of their overall search volume). Outside of China, Russia & South Korea Google has higher search marketshare in most international markets than the US. And eventually many 2nd & 3rd world ad markets will mature to lift their CPMs on those markets significantly.

A couple other big changes coming down the pike...
- pushing licensed content that is for sale (eg: MP3s, movies, ebooks) more in the serps
- providing vertical opentable-like results directly from the search results
- perhaps buying some other content sources to own more of the value chain (is there an electronic reviews equivalent of yelp or zagat?)
- once the books legal stuff is settled Google will likely promote ebook results in their search results more aggressively
- larger ad units and charging brands more for their own existing brand equity (lots of upside here)

[kduffey]

Re: Top 20 companys in the World to invest in?

I've been considering making the jump to an Android phone for the first time ever. I've been on an iPhone now for years. I have multiple macs, an iphone and an ipad. With that said, I've been using Google services more like Google Plus and even Google Drive. Coupled with a general boredom of iOS (it's been the same for years) I'm curious in checking out an Android phone. maybe the Nexus 4. The integration with Google services is quite interesting.

The Google photo sphere feature where you can essentially take "street view" photos yourself is interesting. I believe it integrates with Google Maps as well.

It seems obvious that Google's strategy is just to accumulate as much data about the world itself and the world as it relates to you specifically via the data it has on you based on gmail, search, G+, etc. Google Now is sort of a window into that data set I believe.

If having the most data to provide the most user specific information at any given time via any device is the goal, I don't see how even Apple is close to Google...

Any thoughts?

[c1ue]

Re: Top 20 companys in the World to invest in?

I agree with your analysis on Google's moats. Moreover you never even broached the Google culture to aggressively go after new markets. Google has been successful in getting CA, NV & FL pass laws to allow for self-driven cars to enter the system. If Google could manage to pull this one off it will be bigger than Search Engines. Imagine giving an average suburban dweller 2 extra hours a day. What if you're charged by the mile auto-chauffeured? It will change everything! It will be an addiction for life. Someone said that these systems are going to be so much more efficient in avoiding accidents that in order to get a human license you'll have to prove that you deserve it.

There's Voice search, voice signature, natural language processing - to replace overseas BPO & CSR
Youtube as the next {Netflix, Cable TV, PPV} rolled into one
Google Wallet

I'd caution anyone relying on Google to make money out of anything besides their core business.

Sure, Android is great. But Google makes no money on it. Equally unclear just how much revenue Google derives from SEO on Android. Perhaps seobook can speak to that.

As for technology - I work directly in one of the fields which Google has attempted to drive: Parking. You'd think that a company based on information would at least be able to provide users with a comprehensive listing of all the parking garages in a given area.

But that isn't the case. There are literally dozens of companies who thrive in this space because of Google's failure to execute even at the informational level, much less the upcoming shift to transactional (informational = just providing info. Transactional = participating in the transaction). Parking is a $30 billion/year business.

Did you know Streetview originally started as a way to map out street parking? Failed miserably. For one thing, you actually have to know something about parking at a systemic and regulatory level to be able to provide useful information about it. For another thing, the core of what people care about in parking is if they can find it when they need it - something which doesn't mesh well with bi-yearly streetview updates. If you can't tell them how to either avoid a ticket/list where they can park legally and/or show where open spaces are, you're wasting your time. There is a niche for informational here with regards to static rules like street sweeping, but these are going to disappear as soon as the big 2 make it into navigation systems (which should be happening starting next year).

If you don't believe me, go look at street view in a major city some time. Note how street signs - which are normally perpendicular to view from directly street side - have been shifted by technology so that they're more readable. This is part of the work that went into trying to make Streetview usable for parking - on the informational side which Google specializes in.

[doom&gloom]

Re: Top 20 companys in the World to invest in?

"Oh James, please get the car. It's the Rolls over there. Post haste you know" (he says with clipped British highbrow accent)

[kduffey]

Re: Top 20 companys in the World to invest in?

I guess its a question if Google acquiring unthinkable amounts of data on the world and on you personally will help them sell ads. I tend to think it will.

He who holds the most useful information can also be the gate keeper to that information, no?