Smartphone report: August 2012

[c1ue]

http://www.reghardware.com/2012/08/0...one_shipments/

It's a two-horse race, no question. Apple and Google's grip on the world smartphone market tightened even further during Q2, with everyone else's combined share falling to 15 per cent from 34.3 per cent in the year-ago quarter.


The numbers come from IDC, a market watcher, and they chart RIM's decline - from an 11.5 per cent share to 4.8 per cent in a year - and Symbian's even steeper fall: down from 16.9 per cent to 4.4 per cent.


Microsoft's Windows Phone platform has undoubtedly increased Redmond's presence in the market, but by a tiny amount: a 2.3 per cent share became 3.5 per cent in the months between Q2 2011 and Q2 2012. But it's clearly gaining on RIM, so there's scope for optimism at Microsoft. Question is, is it actively winning share - or is RIM simply losing it?

Smartphone OS World market shares Q2 2012 and 2011

Data source: IDC

Microsoft, like Google, is merely an OS supplier - their shares are spread across multiple vendors. Not so Apple which, like RIM and Symbian, saw its market share fall year on year. Unlike those others, Apple nonetheless increased its unit shipments, and since it's shipping units and selling them that makes money, we'd say it's a lot more cheerful than RIM and Nokia, Symbian's owner, are.
Apple can also take heart from increasing its market share in the US, its home market, according to recent figures from Strategy Analytics. But IDC's data show the value of enabling low-cost product in other markets, particularly emerging ones. The rise of the budget Android smartphone is clearly playing dividends for Google.


Its hardware partners doubled the combined unit shipments year on year, from 50.8m to 104.8m. Apple's went from 20.4m to 26m. ®

Note the dichotomy - exaggerated because of Apple's release cycle: Android OS smartphones sold 54 million more YoY while Apple sold 5.6 million more YoY - with a large fraction of Apple sales in the US (over 25% according to comscore).

A look at Apple's annual iPhone sales in the past few years according to IDC:

2008: 13.8M
2009: 25.1M
2010: 48.4M
2011: 93M

The question then is - will 2012 see a leveling off of this trend? If so that will likely be the first sign of the end of the bubble.

[FrankL]

Re: Smartphone report: August 2012

What do you think of the possibility that Apple might release an 'iPhone mini' version with reduced functionality at a lower price point when their regular iPhone market share has seemingly saturated?

It's also interesting to keep an eye on Windows Phone 8. Basically, it's Nokia's last hope of survival (if they can even last that long, considering their current cash reserves burn rate). I don't like to have emotional feelings for companies or their products (they're just out there to make money off you), but I cannot stop to feel some pity for a company like Nokia being driven into the ground (first by successive CEOs that couldn't make them focus properly, and then Mr. Elop that is killing them even faster by killing their own decent options and putting all their eggs into a basket that is unproven and outside of their control).

[flintlock]

Re: Smartphone report: August 2012

Market share is all well and good, but I think Apple will continue to be pleased as long as it maintains profitability. I'm not so sure the "everyman's" phone is the image they are after. More like "yuppie" with an ipad, macbook, and an Apple TV.

They are supposedly coming out with a smaller version of the ipad, despite Jobs not liking the idea. I hadnt heard about a no frills Iphone.

[GRG55]

Re: Smartphone report: August 2012

http://www.reghardware.com/2012/08/0...one_shipments/



Note the dichotomy - exaggerated because of Apple's release cycle: Android OS smartphones sold 54 million more YoY while Apple sold 5.6 million more YoY - with a large fraction of Apple sales in the US (over 25% according to comscore).

A look at Apple's annual iPhone sales in the past few years according to IDC:

2008: 13.8M
2009: 25.1M
2010: 48.4M
2011: 93M

The question then is - will 2012 see a leveling off of this trend? If so that will likely be the first sign of the end of the bubble.

What is the basis for your view that there is some sort of "bubble"?

A "smart phone" is merely computer hardware. It lives or dies by the applications. Nobody has the coverage of applications that Apple does...not even Android. As long as that is the case Apple will continue to command a premium it would seem. I am a pilot. I own an airplane. I have some friends and one brother that are professional pilots. They all have iPads in the cockpit now. Why? Because most of the really useful applications for aviation only work on the iPad or iPhone. Android is running a well behind second in a two horse race. Versions for Nokia and Microsoft virtually non-existent. I am about to follow the lead of my friends and spring for an iPad for my cockpit. I suspect it's the same in other areas of business and life...

[flintlock]

Re: Smartphone report: August 2012

Not to mention incredible service Apple provides. I no longer have to wait in long lines for a surly Verizon clerk to replace my Crappy broken Motorola phone for the third time. If my phone does break I can make an appt at the local Apple store, and in about a minute walk out with another Iphone that has actually been refurbished, not just turned on and wiped down. And they wont accuse me of dropping it in water like the cell service companies like to do. Apple understands how to treat customers and have been handsomely rewarded for it. They understand cheapest is not always best. If there is any Apple bubble, its to a large degree based on merit outside of any particular technical advantage. Not all techies get the big picture that has made Apple so successful. Not everyone wants a phone they can turn into an electron microscope. But most people like good service. And some insist on it.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Smartphone report: August 2012

What is the basis for your view that there is some sort of "bubble"?

A "smart phone" is merely computer hardware. It lives or dies by the applications. Nobody has the coverage of applications that Apple does...not even Android. As long as that is the case Apple will continue to command a premium it would seem. I am a pilot. I own an airplane. I have some friends and one brother that are professional pilots. They all have iPads in the cockpit now. Why? Because most of the really useful applications for aviation only work on the iPad or iPhone. Android is running a well behind second in a two horse race. Versions for Nokia and Microsoft virtually non-existent. I am about to follow the lead of my friends and spring for an iPad for my cockpit. I suspect it's the same in other areas of business and life...

I'm going to go on a rant here that is only tangentially related to this thread , so feel free to ignore it:
[RANT]
The world is moving towards towards a broadcast only television model of computing. The IPad Iphone and dozens of similar Android and other products are being made without keyboards. In essence, the public is being given hand held computers more powerful than the supercomputers of yesteryear and at the same time being denied the power to alter them or create any original work. Try typing a novel on an Ipad for a fun creative experience if you don't believe me. The new windows 8 is specifically geared towards touchpad use and does not even have an easy way to shut off the machine. All computing is being moved in this direction. The Android platform despite being based on the free and open-source Linux kernel is very much a closed platform. For instance my phone, the droid2 will not run any kernel not digitally signed by motorola. Far from being the exception this is becoming the rule in the computer world. New versions of Microsoft Windows 8 that run on the ARM platform will prevent any software not approved by Microsoft from running. This has long been the case in the Iphone world where only Apple approved applications can be installed on the phone ( or the Ipad). Jobs specifically denied the ability to run flash on Iphone in part because it permitted non-approved and even user generated content from running on the phone. Even when devices arrive with keyboards, it is normal to find that no programming language is provided with the machine. Curious users cannot even make their own application if they want to. A "hello world" is out of the question. A generation of young people have grown up that only know how to treat the computer as a glorified TV. As a result nobody protests when more and more capabilities are removed. The kicker here is that increasingly, the entire world and everything we touch IS a computer. Your car is a computer with wheels. take the computer out and it is just so much dead metal. I had a Honda Fit. I came out of a theater and the gas cap was missing one evening. The check engine light came on so I took it down to the dealership to get it serviced. They use a machine there to access the on-board computer to clear the check engine light. I would like to be able to fix my own car, so I ask if I can buy one of these machines. The machine is $5000, but the kicker is that it is only available to Honda certified technicians. I am not permitted to fix my own car! This is happening in every walk of life and every corner of our existence. Far from being indignant and rebellious the public loves this. They love having their apps available only from the apple store. They love having their car only repairable by Honda.

Read this astonishing article for a total head slam.
http://joelrunyon.com/two3/an-unexpected-ass-kicking
[/RANT]

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Smartphone report: August 2012

...The world is moving towards towards a broadcast only television model of computing...

General purpose computers are dangerous to the very rich and to strong central authority.
So too is the general-purpose distributed network we call The Internet.

We'll see every trick in the book used to change them and restrict them so only big business and big government have them.

[Adeptus]

Re: Smartphone report: August 2012

I'm going to go on a rant here that is only tangentially related to this thread , so feel free to ignore it:
[RANT]
The world is moving towards towards a broadcast only television model of computing. The IPad Iphone and dozens of similar Android and other products are being made without keyboards. In essence, the public is being given hand held computers more powerful than the supercomputers of yesteryear and at the same time being denied the power to alter them or create any original work. Try typing a novel on an Ipad for a fun creative experience if you don't believe me. The new windows 8 is specifically geared towards touchpad use and does not even have an easy way to shut off the machine. All computing is being moved in this direction. The Android platform despite being based on the free and open-source Linux kernel is very much a closed platform. For instance my phone, the droid2 will not run any kernel not digitally signed by motorola. Far from being the exception this is becoming the rule in the computer world. New versions of Microsoft Windows 8 that run on the ARM platform will prevent any software not approved by Microsoft from running. This has long been the case in the Iphone world where only Apple approved applications can be installed on the phone ( or the Ipad). Jobs specifically denied the ability to run flash on Iphone in part because it permitted non-approved and even user generated content from running on the phone. Even when devices arrive with keyboards, it is normal to find that no programming language is provided with the machine. Curious users cannot even make their own application if they want to. A "hello world" is out of the question. A generation of young people have grown up that only know how to treat the computer as a glorified TV. As a result nobody protests when more and more capabilities are removed. The kicker here is that increasingly, the entire world and everything we touch IS a computer. Your car is a computer with wheels. take the computer out and it is just so much dead metal. I had a Honda Fit. I came out of a theater and the gas cap was missing one evening. The check engine light came on so I took it down to the dealership to get it serviced. They use a machine there to access the on-board computer to clear the check engine light. I would like to be able to fix my own car, so I ask if I can buy one of these machines. The machine is $5000, but the kicker is that it is only available to Honda certified technicians. I am not permitted to fix my own car! This is happening in every walk of life and every corner of our existence. Far from being indignant and rebellious the public loves this. They love having their apps available only from the apple store. They love having their car only repairable by Honda.

Read this astonishing article for a total head slam.
http://joelrunyon.com/two3/an-unexpected-ass-kicking
[/RANT]

* You can get an external keyboard for the ipad, same with samsung tablet and others
* I can still buy a PC with a keyboard and download free open source compilers or buy one from the likes of Microsoft.
* Windows 8 has a high probability of failure, at least in the Enterprise. In case you haven't noticed, the joke in the IT world is that roughly every second OS out of Microsoft is a complete failure.



* I'd hardly consider Android a closed platform. It seems to be heading in the direction of Linux - the Core is open, but a multiplicity of flavours with small modifications are somewhat closed. Not the greatest analogy I know.
* "Even when devices arrive with keyboards, it is normal to find that no programming language is provided with the machine." - Most people don't buy iPads, smartphones, or even home multimedia appliances to program them. They buy them to use them, that's why we call them "users". While your statement is true, I am not sure it is that relevant, if anything, today we have dozens upon dozens of programming languages to choose from - many of which are free, and we have dozens of millions more programmers in the world than 20 years ago.
* You can download SDKs (software deverloper's kits) for most of Apple's products (excluding perhaps ipods) and start programming tonight for free. Bundling excess software 99% of your users will never use on an appliance with limited memory (SD memory is still relatively expensive compared to hard drives), is wasteful. Who installs Linux these days with every software available? Practically nobody.
* As cars go more and more electronic, it makes some sense to me to keep the core code out of user's hands, much the same way as Windows keeps secret its source code and only provides binaries for install. It's bad enough when your PC crashes at home due to some virus. Your car crashing because you didn't properly debug your software modification, isn't an option - it's a huge liability they are rightly avoiding. A car computer is infinitely more complex than your 1970's 4 cylinder gasoline engine. A highschool drop out that took a couple of mechanics classes can fix a 1970's car. It now takes an expert in programming and possibly electronics engineer to understand core car computer electronics. I see it as a natural evolution, not a conspiracy. And personally, the less I have to screw around with my car the better. I don't want to be a mechanic, I want to be an end user, so I can stay focused on my life goals. Much like I don't want to build my home or repair it, I'd rather work 2 extra hours at what I'm good at and hire a professional electrician to install a new outlet.

[Techdread]

Re: Smartphone report: August 2012

I'm going to go on a rant here that is only tangentially related to this thread , so feel free to ignore it:
[RANT]
The world is moving towards towards a broadcast only television model of computing. The IPad Iphone and dozens of similar Android and other products are being made without keyboards. In essence, the public is being given hand held computers more powerful than the supercomputers of yesteryear and at the same time being denied the power to alter them or create any original work. Try typing a novel on an Ipad for a fun creative experience if you don't believe me. The new windows 8 is specifically geared towards touchpad use and does not even have an easy way to shut off the machine. All computing is being moved in this direction. The Android platform despite being based on the free and open-source Linux kernel is very much a closed platform. For instance my phone, the droid2 will not run any kernel not digitally signed by motorola. Far from being the exception this is becoming the rule in the computer world. New versions of Microsoft Windows 8 that run on the ARM platform will prevent any software not approved by Microsoft from running. This has long been the case in the Iphone world where only Apple approved applications can be installed on the phone ( or the Ipad). Jobs specifically denied the ability to run flash on Iphone in part because it permitted non-approved and even user generated content from running on the phone. Even when devices arrive with keyboards, it is normal to find that no programming language is provided with the machine. Curious users cannot even make their own application if they want to. A "hello world" is out of the question. A generation of young people have grown up that only know how to treat the computer as a glorified TV. As a result nobody protests when more and more capabilities are removed. The kicker here is that increasingly, the entire world and everything we touch IS a computer. Your car is a computer with wheels. take the computer out and it is just so much dead metal. I had a Honda Fit. I came out of a theater and the gas cap was missing one evening. The check engine light came on so I took it down to the dealership to get it serviced. They use a machine there to access the on-board computer to clear the check engine light. I would like to be able to fix my own car, so I ask if I can buy one of these machines. The machine is $5000, but the kicker is that it is only available to Honda certified technicians. I am not permitted to fix my own car! This is happening in every walk of life and every corner of our existence. Far from being indignant and rebellious the public loves this. They love having their apps available only from the apple store. They love having their car only repairable by Honda.

Read this astonishing article for a total head slam.
http://joelrunyon.com/two3/an-unexpected-ass-kicking
[/RANT]

Not true, I think its the other way round.
There are kids now who compile their own kernels/operating systems on Android just go on "XDA Developers" and you will be amazed.
Writing your own programs has never been easier there are excellent tools for all platforms which are only a Google search away check out AIDE for Android it works on Smartphone/Tablets no PC needed.
Motorola is not Android, Samsung is the biggest smartphone maker in the world they always publish their source code and don't lock the bootloader (well at least on the International versions) so they get a lot of programmers standardising on
their Hardware.
I think some kids will produce some excellent software because the tools available are a magnitude better than when I was growing up.

[Techdread]

Re: Smartphone report: August 2012

Agree, though I think the IPhone mini is called the IPhone 3GS, sells for free on contract in the UK.

[astonas]

Re: Smartphone report: August 2012

* You can get an external keyboard for the ipad, same with samsung tablet and others

* "Even when devices arrive with keyboards, it is normal to find that no programming language is provided with the machine." - Most people don't buy iPads, smartphones, or even home multimedia appliances to program them. They buy them to use them, that's why we call them "users". While your statement is true, I am not sure it is that relevant, if anything, today we have dozens upon dozens of programming languages to choose from - many of which are free, and we have dozens of millions more programmers in the world than 20 years ago.

I use both my iPhone and my iPad (with a Bluetooth keyboard) to write and compile LaTeX code when on the road, for both presentations and documents. It is slightly more involved than using a full computer, but only very slightly. And it is well worth the inconvenience to have complete editing capabilities of any document at any moment. Microsoft or even Android, for all it's charms, actually would provide me considerably less flexibility to code and write. They maintain the appearance of flexibility, while failing to deliver the reality of it.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Smartphone report: August 2012

* You can get an external keyboard for the ipad, same with samsung tablet and others
* I can still buy a PC with a keyboard and download free open source compilers or buy one from the likes of Microsoft.
* Windows 8 has a high probability of failure, at least in the Enterprise. In case you haven't noticed, the joke in the IT world is that roughly every second OS out of Microsoft is a complete failure.
* I'd hardly consider Android a closed platform. It seems to be heading in the direction of Linux - the Core is open, but a multiplicity of flavors with small modifications are somewhat closed. Not the greatest analogy I know.
* "Even when devices arrive with keyboards, it is normal to find that no programming language is provided with the machine." - Most people don't buy iPads, smartphones, or even home multimedia appliances to program them. They buy them to use them, that's why we call them "users". While your statement is true, I am not sure it is that relevant, if anything, today we have dozens upon dozens of programming languages to choose from - many of which are free, and we have dozens of millions more programmers in the world than 20 years ago.
* You can download SDKs (software developer's kits) for most of Apple's products (excluding perhaps ipods) and start programming tonight for free. Bundling excess software 99% of your users will never use on an appliance with limited memory (SD memory is still relatively expensive compared to hard drives), is wasteful. Who installs Linux these days with every software available? Practically nobody.
* As cars go more and more electronic, it makes some sense to me to keep the core code out of user's hands, much the same way as Windows keeps secret its source code and only provides binaries for install. It's bad enough when your PC crashes at home due to some virus. Your car crashing because you didn't properly debug your software modification, isn't an option - it's a huge liability they are rightly avoiding. A car computer is infinitely more complex than your 1970's 4 cylinder gasoline engine. A high school drop out that took a couple of mechanics classes can fix a 1970's car. It now takes an expert in programming and possibly electronics engineer to understand core car computer electronics. I see it as a natural evolution, not a conspiracy. And personally, the less I have to screw around with my car the better. I don't want to be a mechanic, I want to be an end user, so I can stay focused on my life goals. Much like I don't want to build my home or repair it, I'd rather work 2 extra hours at what I'm good at and hire a professional electrician to install a new outlet.

I'm not sure I want to respond point by point to a reply to an extended rant, but A few ideas:
Steve Jobs and Wozniak produced one of the first mass market home computers, the apple 2. The only way to "use" the apple 2 was to program it. Even loading a program that someone else wrote required issuing a command in the BASIC programming language ( little known fact : it was written by Microsoft ). Steve Jobs, after stealing the design for the Macintosh from Xerox, decided he wanted the machine to be entirely usable by the mouse without a keyboard. I remember reading a computer magazine at the time ( I must have been all of 10 years old) that a reviewer of the machine had a defective keyboard, so he stopped using it, and completed the review using only the mouse. This was a design goal from the minute that Jobs got into a position to do so. He wanted to remove the ability of the public to interact with the machine in the same way that a "administrator" or a "programmer" could. He set out to produce a TV from the get go.

Most of what you are saying above sounds like it might have come from Mr Jobs. "Users just want to listen to music and take snapshots", "only an expert should be messing with the computer in the car", "I don't want to mess with the computer I have Important Work To Do", and last but not least "There are SDKs out there... I cannot think of any at the moment, but there must be some ... only they will not work with the most popular hand held computer or the most popular tablet"

If you didn't have time to read the link I provided perhaps you will find time to read this one:
http://www.loper-os.org/?p=316

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Smartphone report: August 2012

I use both my iPhone and my iPad (with a Bluetooth keyboard) to write and compile LaTeX code when on the road, for both presentations and documents. It is slightly more involved than using a full computer, but only very slightly. And it is well worth the inconvenience to have complete editing capabilities of any document at any moment. Microsoft or even Android, for all it's charms, actually would provide me considerably less flexibility to code and write. They maintain the appearance of flexibility, while failing to deliver the reality of it.

I used a bluetooth keyboard for about six weeks. While radically better than using the built in keyboard on the phone, it uses the same frequency as the WiFi resulting in poor performance for both. It also drains the battery pretty quick.

We are getting way way off topic, but this is what I am interested in right now:
http://www.motorola.com/us/consumers...,en_US,pd.html
unfortunately, it will not work with my phone.

By the way, tell us what happens when you try to sync the bluetooth keyboard with your bluetooth capable iphone?

[Adeptus]

Re: Smartphone report: August 2012

"Most of what you are saying above sounds like it might have come from Mr Jobs."

hehe, if only you knew how much I despise Apple products. :P

[c1ue]

Re: Smartphone report: August 2012

What do you think of the possibility that Apple might release an 'iPhone mini' version with reduced functionality at a lower price point when their regular iPhone market share has seemingly saturated?

I'd say that if Apple is able to make the transition into being both a mass market consumer product provider AND a high end sexy tech toy for the digerati - it will be the first time ever they've been able to do so successfully.

What is the basis for your view that there is some sort of "bubble"?

A "smart phone" is merely computer hardware. It lives or dies by the applications. Nobody has the coverage of applications that Apple does...not even Android. As long as that is the case Apple will continue to command a premium it would seem. I am a pilot. I own an airplane. I have some friends and one brother that are professional pilots. They all have iPads in the cockpit now. Why? Because most of the really useful applications for aviation only work on the iPad or iPhone. Android is running a well behind second in a two horse race. Versions for Nokia and Microsoft virtually non-existent. I am about to follow the lead of my friends and spring for an iPad for my cockpit. I suspect it's the same in other areas of business and life...

The bubble I refer to is Apple's market cap. Apple has a forward P/E of 11.8 and a trailing P/E of 14.5

This is justified so long as Apple continues to grow explosively, and the annual number of iPhones sold has followed that trend.

However, should that trend even just level off, the impact on the market cap would be traumatic.

I'm making no comments on the product itself - they have good and bad points, though the reality is that the differentiation between iPhones and their high end competitors is shrinking daily. That same dynamic did not end well for Apple in their salad PC days...