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Currency Wars: Enlarging the General Staff

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  • Currency Wars: Enlarging the General Staff



    By ROBERT M. KIMMITT

    THE National Security Act of 1947, which created the National Security Council, the Defense Department, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Central Intelligence Agency, turns 65 on Thursday. But it’s not ready for retirement; it needs, instead, to be rejuvenated by making the Treasury secretary a statutory member of the National Security Council, rather than an invited attendee.

    The act and the organizations it created performed well during the cold war, the post-cold-war decade and the period after 9/11. But they need to be updated to recognize the close connection between security and economic issues as we look forward from the global financial crisis of the last few years. The concept of national security has broadened considerably since the N.S.C.’s early decades, elevating economic and financial issues to crucial elements to our nation’s security, alongside the traditional diplomatic and military issues. Diplomatic and military issues are still important, of course. Iran, Syria and North Korea make that clear. But the growth areas in national security policy are economic and financial.

    During the cold war, the German chancellor, Helmut Kohl, knew with precision the throw-weights of American nuclear weapons based in Germany; today, Chancellor Angela Merkel has to know with equal precision the spreads on Spanish and Italian sovereign debt.

    It may seem odd that the Treasury secretary would have been left off the list of statutory members of the National Security Council by the generation of American leaders who helped lay the groundwork for Western Europe’s postwar revival with the Bretton Woods conference and the Marshall Plan. But at the time, military, diplomatic and economic policies were seen as largely separate tracks. And as the cold war deepened, the military challenge from the Soviet Union assumed overwhelming importance.

    This is where the National Security Act has not kept pace. The statutory members of the National Security Council are still the president, vice president, secretary of state and secretary of defense, with the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the director of national intelligence as statutory advisers. This is a good, but incomplete, team. Even though the Obama White House says that Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner is a regular attendee, along with the statutory members, it is now time to add the secretary of the Treasury to the list of statutory members. That would ensure that the economic and financial dimensions of national security challenges are given equal weight in council deliberations, now and into the future.

    In recent administrations, the Treasury secretary has, in fact, frequently been invited to join N.S.C. meetings, and the Treasury has recently played an important role, especially regarding financial sanctions against Iran, Syria and North Korea. But today’s broader economic and financial issues are too important for Treasury to attend N.S.C. meetings only when invited. That arrangement leaves too much to chance.

    An example: in the waning days of the George W. Bush administration in the fall of 2008, an N.S.C. meeting was convened to discuss the deteriorating security situation in Pakistan. After sobering briefings by the secretaries of state and defense, I (as Treasury invitee) reported an even more serious financial development: Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves had just fallen below the amount required to pay for two months’ worth of critical imports, pushing the country toward a severe balance of payments crisis. The outlook was for food and fuel shortages, followed by street demonstrations and riots — a scenario ripe for exploitation by extremist groups.

    The conversation at the meeting quickly shifted to how to deal with this acute problem. The result was short-term financial support from the World Bank and Asian Development Bank and a donors’ conference that followed, early in the Obama administration. Had someone from Treasury not been asked to attend that N.S.C. meeting, the situation in Pakistan might have accelerated into a crisis that would have been much more difficult to resolve.

    There are other reasons to add the secretary of the Treasury to the N.S.C. The Group of 20, for which the Treasury secretary is the primary cabinet-level contact, is now the most influential organization in setting global financial and economic policies; the finance ministers of the other Group of 20 countries, who are the Treasury secretary’s counterparts, are the cabinet-level officials who deal most directly with American requests for financial cooperation on common security interests; and the finance ministers, who are frequently the most important cabinet members in parliamentary democracies, often ascend to lead their countries. Examples are Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in India, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda in Japan, former President Nicolas Sarkozy of France and former Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Britain.

    There are, of course, other officials integral to international economic and financial success, like the secretary of commerce and the United States trade representative. They should still be invited to N.S.C. meetings. But the Treasury secretary, who has primary authority on economic and financial issues in the cabinet, should be at every meeting to advise on how economic and security issues intersect, and to ensure that the United States is using its economic and financial strength in the most effective way.

    Robert M. Kimmitt, a former deputy Treasury secretary, under secretary of state and ambassador to Germany, served on the National Security Council staff from 1976 to 1985, under Presidents Gerald R. Ford, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/24/op...ncil.html?_r=1

    Jesse's comments:

    Looks like the US is getting ready to flex its financial muscle. I don't think the Anglo-American banking cartel will relinquish the dollar reserve currency supremacy easily. This is currency war.

    I somehow missed this editorial when it first came out. But over the weekend and today I heard echoes of the same sentiment from various places in what looks like a loosely organized public relations campaign.

    The National Security Council, formed in 1947 and comprised of the President, Vice-President, Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, Director of the CIA, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

    The National Security Council has an unmistakable military flavor.

    The move to add the Treasury Secretary as a permanent member is just another sign of the currency wars heating up. At least from the US perspective, there is an unmistakable convergence between military and economic action.

    As I have noted before, the language used often suggests that the US considers its TBTF's to be a modern form of financial battleship, able to move key markets at will to support official policy. And the credit rating agencies are like agile destroyers.

    the latter are more like submarines . . . .




    the desired effect from an S&P ratings drop

    Aye, Captain, we're a goner!

    Heard most recently in Greek, Spanish, Italian . . .


  • #2
    Re: Currency Wars: Enlarging the General Staff

    Hi Don
    Ok, so they say "Currency Wars"...........they mean to debase the value of the $ ?
    Mike

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Currency Wars: Enlarging the General Staff

      In the fiat glue factory beauty contest, the most consistent winner is the reserve-currency dollar. Take away its status and it plunges to a bonar.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Currency Wars: Enlarging the General Staff

        Originally posted by don View Post
        In the fiat glue factory beauty contest, the most consistent winner is the reserve-currency dollar.
        There is definitely some truth to that. 17 years ago in a presentation, I called it Global Fiat Currency Differentiation. While "currency wars" is undoubtedly catchier - I don't agree with what it implies.

        War implies a final winner. Capital is not the same these days ... it is mostly electronic and can move at fibre-optic light speed. Capital is not always loyal to its originating country. As most here on iTulip know, reserves currencies don't die a quick death ... they take years (even decades) to devalue themselves.

        I want to live in a world where global currencies compete with one another for my hard-earned capital, based on a global standard unit of measure. Monetary competition based on differentiation - just like in the Smartphone Market or any other market based on goods.

        The current system lacks those traits, but this is where we are heading. Of course, they will fight it every step of the way ... but a man can still dream.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Currency Wars: Enlarging the General Staff

          Originally posted by Fiat Currency View Post
          I want to live in a world where global currencies compete with one another for my hard-earned capital, based on a global standard unit of measure. Monetary competition based on differentiation - just like in the Smartphone Market or any other market based on goods.
          The current system lacks those traits, but this is where we are heading. Of course, they will fight it every step of the way ... but a man can still dream.
          I think it will forever remain a dream as well. Most cultures and consequently governments of the world could not survive the social consequences such a free market would result in.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Currency Wars: Enlarging the General Staff

            Even in a fiat currency world, it's good to be king . . . .

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Currency Wars: Enlarging the General Staff

              Originally posted by Fiat Currency
              Monetary competition based on differentiation - just like in the Smartphone Market or any other market based on goods.v
              I think your choice of metaphors is a very poor one. If your savings were in RIM or Nokia phones, you'd be pretty unhappy now.

              I can understand what you want: that your capital get the best possible deal for itself with the least amount of work.

              Unfortunately this dynamic is exactly what is behind the bankster phenomenon we're seeing now. Which is why IMO there needs to be some other standard to strive for.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Currency Wars: Enlarging the General Staff

                Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                I think your choice of metaphors is a very poor one. If your savings were in RIM or Nokia phones, you'd be pretty unhappy now.
                ... or in my actual case, one could have acquired all their Apple shares at <$40 and sold them at $639. I'm fine with my metaphor, and I'll take competition and free choice any day. Investing is never risk free. You do realize that like RIM/Nokia ... over 3,000 fiat currencies have died a slow death too right?

                Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                I can understand what you want: that your capital get the best possible deal for itself with the least amount of work.
                Nothing could be further from the truth, so I wonder how a man of logic jumped to that conclusion. I do more private investing than public - and I am happy to work for my returns. The last management team that I invested serious capital into was after a "deep dive" of due diligence on 87 other companies. I still meet with their CEO regularly, and I sit on one of their advisory committees. When you invest in private companies, you won't usually see your capital for 4-6 years ... so perhaps you can understand my desire for a better fiat system.

                Originally posted by c1ue View Post
                Unfortunately this dynamic is exactly what is behind the bankster phenomenon we're seeing now. Which is why IMO there needs to be some other standard to strive for.
                I find it interesting that in my rather large group of private investors - we don't have a single banker. Lots of doctors, lawyers, engineers, MBAs, entrepreneurs etc. but not a single banker. I don't think most of them live in the real world - so they would make lousy investment partners.

                So other than being bad at metaphors, lazy with my own hard earned capital, and as scummy as an American banker ... are there any more insults you'd like to hurl at me this morning?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Currency Wars: Enlarging the General Staff

                  Ziiiiiiiiinnnngggggggggg!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Currency Wars: Enlarging the General Staff

                    Originally posted by Fiat Currency
                    ... or in my actual case, one could have acquired all their Apple shares at <$40 and sold them at $639. I'm fine with my metaphor, and I'll take competition and free choice any day. Investing is never risk free. You do realize that like RIM/Nokia ... over 3,000 fiat currencies have died a slow death too right?
                    I'd say your credibility would have been a lot higher if you'd been saying this 8 years ago.

                    To look backwards now, pretty much pointless, even disregarding the reality that Apple's market cap is quite obviously in a massive bubble.

                    Originally posted by Fiat Currency
                    Nothing could be further from the truth, so I wonder how a man of logic jumped to that conclusion. I do more private investing than public - and I am happy to work for my returns. The last management team that I invested serious capital into was after a "deep dive" of due diligence on 87 other companies. I still meet with their CEO regularly, and I sit on one of their advisory committees. When you invest in private companies, you won't usually see your capital for 4-6 years ... so perhaps you can understand my desire for a better fiat system.
                    That's funny, you just commented:

                    Originally posted by Fiat Currency
                    I want to live in a world where global currencies compete with one another for my hard-earned capital, based on a global standard unit of measure.
                    What is this but exactly what I said? That your capital would be unfettered by any such risks as devaluation/debasement/fiat? That nations, companies, whatever would compete for your scarce capital without even the tools that the owner/controller of said currency possesses?

                    And where did I say that you didn't work? Removing currency risk is in fact less work - or do you dispute that?

                    Originally posted by Fiat Currency
                    I find it interesting that in my rather large group of private investors - we don't have a single banker. Lots of doctors, lawyers, engineers, MBAs, entrepreneurs etc. but not a single banker. I don't think most of them live in the real world - so they would make lousy investment partners.

                    So other than being bad at metaphors, lazy with my own hard earned capital, and as scummy as an American banker ... are there any more insults you'd like to hurl at me this morning?
                    Actually there are, but apparently you can't tell.

                    As for insults - if you choose to be insulted, that's your problem.

                    I didn't call you a bankster - in fact I specifically pointed out that your desire was perfectly understandable.

                    However, the reality is that your desires noted in the quote above are quite in line with what the banksters want: for everyone to compete for their capital.

                    Does this make you a bankster? Not in my book.

                    Comment

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