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Tracking "confidence" in this ever more apparently false front financial system seems hard to do objectively.
Found by chance in a 0hedge comment.
Note he uses generational theory in his original analysis, an interesting read.
Seat Prices for the Chicago Board of Trade
In 2002 I did the only prediction of Seat Prices for the Chicago Board of Trade Full Membership prices that I know of. They were trading $300,000 & my research showed they'd move up to 4 Million. Why? Volume. After recording every trade for seats on the CBOT going back to 1899 and matching them with volume it was evident that 2002 was the 3rd best time in history to buy a Full Membership.
The first was 1942 when seats hit $25 after topping $61,000 in 1929. The 2nd best time was 1933 when volume was high and seat prices were extremely low. Seat prices would not cross $61,000 again until 1973.
In all 3 instances the prices were low and volume was high. All three times proved to be a good trade, even 1933 when they rebounded up until Hilter's 1939 invasion of Poland, then, things got dicey.
The point? After the seat prices hit their highs, in the previous decade, my charts show that they'd plunge. That price can be found in the CME stock prices because that what the CBOT Full membership became after the CBOT went public. All full member were given 27,000 shares of stock at the $80 offering price (2.1 million dollars). Plus they kept their memberships which brought low fees for trading. Then those who didn't cash out doubled and quadripled their money when the CME bought the CBOT for 10 billion.
When volume disappears, the stock prices of the now public exchanges tank. There's nothing on the horizon that points to a pick up volume.
Several things support this statement but I'll stick to one thing that Zero Hedge has been writing about: Scott Paterson's book, Dark Pools: High-Speed Traders, A.I. Bandits, and the Threat to the Global Financial System. This book is the knife in the heart of trading volume. Trust is gone and this book proves beyond any doubt what ZH has been writing about for a very long time; the game is rigged and we have proof. (Thank's Scott.)
Paterson's Book, The Quants was the first book I'd read that provided what I'd and others had suspected all along; manipulation. His latest book "Dark Pools" backs this up and we all know what will come of it...hand slapping.
So, we do what we do best, walk away. When WE walk, volume falls, hence, their stock prices will plummet.
Thank You,
Jim Goulding
Chicago, IL
Original Seat analysis linked below.
http://www.jamesgoulding.com/CBOT_Seat_Analysis_1.html
Found by chance in a 0hedge comment.
Note he uses generational theory in his original analysis, an interesting read.
Seat Prices for the Chicago Board of Trade
In 2002 I did the only prediction of Seat Prices for the Chicago Board of Trade Full Membership prices that I know of. They were trading $300,000 & my research showed they'd move up to 4 Million. Why? Volume. After recording every trade for seats on the CBOT going back to 1899 and matching them with volume it was evident that 2002 was the 3rd best time in history to buy a Full Membership.
The first was 1942 when seats hit $25 after topping $61,000 in 1929. The 2nd best time was 1933 when volume was high and seat prices were extremely low. Seat prices would not cross $61,000 again until 1973.
In all 3 instances the prices were low and volume was high. All three times proved to be a good trade, even 1933 when they rebounded up until Hilter's 1939 invasion of Poland, then, things got dicey.
The point? After the seat prices hit their highs, in the previous decade, my charts show that they'd plunge. That price can be found in the CME stock prices because that what the CBOT Full membership became after the CBOT went public. All full member were given 27,000 shares of stock at the $80 offering price (2.1 million dollars). Plus they kept their memberships which brought low fees for trading. Then those who didn't cash out doubled and quadripled their money when the CME bought the CBOT for 10 billion.
When volume disappears, the stock prices of the now public exchanges tank. There's nothing on the horizon that points to a pick up volume.
Several things support this statement but I'll stick to one thing that Zero Hedge has been writing about: Scott Paterson's book, Dark Pools: High-Speed Traders, A.I. Bandits, and the Threat to the Global Financial System. This book is the knife in the heart of trading volume. Trust is gone and this book proves beyond any doubt what ZH has been writing about for a very long time; the game is rigged and we have proof. (Thank's Scott.)
Paterson's Book, The Quants was the first book I'd read that provided what I'd and others had suspected all along; manipulation. His latest book "Dark Pools" backs this up and we all know what will come of it...hand slapping.
So, we do what we do best, walk away. When WE walk, volume falls, hence, their stock prices will plummet.
Thank You,
Jim Goulding
Chicago, IL
Original Seat analysis linked below.
http://www.jamesgoulding.com/CBOT_Seat_Analysis_1.html