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A good set of articles linked at the Oil Drum - The Finance Round-Up: October 12th 2007
Of particular interest are the following charts
Of particular interest are the following charts
The weakness of the Dow Jones Transportation Average is not merely a technical divergence, however, it is also a fundamental sign that the economy is struggling. As the nearby chart clearly shows, there is a reduced demand for trucking. Coming out of the 2001 recession, shipments increased until 2005, then declined throughout 2006 and so far through 2007.
Supply Chain Digest is also reporting that inbound container volume growth has slowed dramatically at U.S. ports over the past year, with May 2007 traffic down 0.2% from a year earlier. This confirms the slowdown we are seeing in truck tonnage, and also suggests the consumer-led economy is slowing....
....The key thing to remember about avoiding a downturn in stocks is that by the time everyone realizes a bear market has begun, it will be too late to do anything about it -- because stock prices will have already declined. When the Fed began its rate-cutting campaign in January 2001, stocks rallied on the belief that the Fed would rescue the market. But only two months later, the S&P 500 was down 20%, and over the next year and a half, the S&P lost over 40%. You have to prepare ahead of time, when everyone is still convinced that everything is fine.
Supply Chain Digest is also reporting that inbound container volume growth has slowed dramatically at U.S. ports over the past year, with May 2007 traffic down 0.2% from a year earlier. This confirms the slowdown we are seeing in truck tonnage, and also suggests the consumer-led economy is slowing....
....The key thing to remember about avoiding a downturn in stocks is that by the time everyone realizes a bear market has begun, it will be too late to do anything about it -- because stock prices will have already declined. When the Fed began its rate-cutting campaign in January 2001, stocks rallied on the belief that the Fed would rescue the market. But only two months later, the S&P 500 was down 20%, and over the next year and a half, the S&P lost over 40%. You have to prepare ahead of time, when everyone is still convinced that everything is fine.